KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 17 July 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

United Health Group Incorporated. (UNH US)

  • Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA and 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 478, Target 508, Stop 463

The Cigna Group (CI US)

  • Shares closed at a high since Mar 23 above the 200dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 280, Target 300, Stop 270

Back To Top

Venture Corp Ltd (VMS SP)

  • Shares closed above the 20dEMA. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  • RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  • Long – Entry 15.08, Target 16.08, Stop 14.58

ComfortDelGro Corp Ltd (CD SP)

  • Shares closed above the 200dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 1.22 Target 1.30, Stop 1.18

China Unicom (Hong Kong) Ltd. (762HK)

  • Shares closed above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 5.50, Target 6.00, Stop 5.25

China Telecom Corp. (728 HK)

  • Shares closed above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 3.90, Target 4.30, Stop 3.70

Back To Top

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $41.3B, +34.5% YoY, beat estimates by $2.45B
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $4.37, beat estimates by $0.61
  • FY23 Guidance: The company increased its guidance for 2023 net interest income to $87bn, which is $3bn higher than its guidance from May and the bank’s third increase to its NII forecast this year. 
  • Comment: Amidst a high-interest rate environment, the company was able to take advantage of these higher rates and solid loan growth, reporting a net interest income of $21.9 billion, up 44%. This increase greatly contributed to a 34% jump in revenue to $41.3B. The company also displayed a good set of results despite incurring $173 billion in loans and $62 billion in deposits following its acquisition of First Republic Bank. Going forwards, the Federal Reserve is likely to hike interest rates another time in July, and with consumer demand still remaining strong as consumers believe that the inflation rate has already reached its peak and is showing signs of cooling down, J.P. Morgan’s net interest income is likely to benefit from a near term interest rate hike. However, this could also represent tight credit conditions amidst a high-interest rate environment. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $145 to $160. Positive Outlook.

摩根大通 (JPM)

  • 23财年第二季营收：413亿美元, 同比增幅34.5%，超预期24.5亿美元  
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：4.37美元，超预期0.61美元  
  • 23财年指引：该公司将2023年净利息收入预期上调至870亿美元，比5月份的预期高出30亿美元，这是该行今年第三次上调净利息收入预期。
  • 短评：在高利率环境下，该公司能够利用这些较高的利率和稳健的贷款增长，报告净利息收入为219亿美元，增长44%。这一增长极大地推动了营收增长34%，达到413亿美元。尽管在收购第一共和国银行后，该公司产生了1,730亿美元的贷款和620亿美元的存款，但该公司仍显示出良好的业绩。展望未来，美联储可能会在7月份再次加息，而消费者需求依然强劲，因为消费者认为通胀率已经达到峰值，并显示出降温的迹象，因此摩根大通的净利息收入可能会受益于近期的加息。然而，这也可能意味着在高利率环境下的信贷紧缩状况。第三季度建议交易区间：45美元至160美元。积极前景。

UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $92.9B, +15.6% YoY, beat estimates by $1.94B
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $6.14, beat estimates by $0.16
  • FY23 Guidance: The company strengthened the range of its full-year net earnings outlook to $23.45 to $23.75 per share and adjusted net earnings to $24.70 to $25.00 per share vs consensus of $24.70.
  • Comment: The company’s surge in revenue was mainly driven by growth in its insurance business and its Optum Health Services arm. However, the company saw an increase in its Medical loss ratio to 83.2%, compared to 81.5% in 2Q22, and the margin in the Optum unit slipped to 6.6%. This was however offset by better than expected investment income.  The company raised its outlook for the rest of the year despite worries that higher utilization in its Medicare Advantage business would be a drag on the company’s performance. With the inflation rate reaching its peak, the company is likely to see better margins as its cost of sales falls. Demand for healthcare is also likely to remain persistent, allowing for UnitedHealth Group to be a good defensive play in the near term. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $470 to $530. Positive Outlook.

联合健康 (UNH)

  • 23财年第二季营收：929亿美元, 同比增幅15.6%，超预期19.4亿美元  
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：6.14美元，超预期0.16美元  
  • 23财年指引：该公司将全年净收益预期范围上调至每股23.45美元至23.75美元，并将每股净收益调整至24.70美元至25.00美元，而市场预期为24.70美元。
  • 短评：该公司收入的激增主要是由其保险业务和Optum健康服务部门的增长推动的。然而，该公司的医疗损失率从22年第二季度的81.5%上升至83.2%，Optum部门的利润率下滑至6.6%。然而，这被好于预期的投资收益所抵消。该公司上调了对今年剩余时间的预期，尽管担心其医疗保险优惠业务的较高利用率将拖累该公司的业绩。随着通货膨胀率达到峰值，公司会因销售成本的下降看到更好的利润率。对医疗保健的需求也可能保持持续，这使得联合健康集团在短期内成为一个很好的防御性股票。第三季度建议交易区间：470美元至530美元。积极前景。

Citigroup Inc. (C) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $19.4B, -1.2% YoY, beat estimates by $120M
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.37, miss estimates by $0.01
  • FY23 Guidance: Revenue of $78bn – $79bn, excluding 2023 divestiture-related impacts, FY23 net interest income, excluding markets increasing from around $45 bn to $46bn+.
  • Comment: The current results saw weakness in Citigroup’s deal-making and trading business. Despite seeing a huge rise in net interest income arising from the high-interest rate environment, it did not manage to offset the loss arising from its investment banking and trading business. In the near term, net interest income is set to rise with the expectation that one more rate hike in July is coming. However, Citigroup needs to focus on reducing its charges from its investment banking business around to world, which largely contributes to the drop in revenue in the current quarter. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $43 to $48. Neutral Outlook.

花旗集团 (C)

  • 23财年第二季营收：194亿美元, 同比跌幅1.2%，超预期1.2亿美元  
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.37美元，逊预期0.01美元  
  • 23财年指引：营收780亿至790亿美元，不包括2023年剥离相关影响，23财年净利息收入（不包括市场部分）从450亿美元左右增加到460亿美元以上。
  • 短评：目前的业绩显示，花旗集团的交易撮合和交易业务表现疲弱。尽管高利率环境带来的净利息收入大幅增长，但它未能抵消投资银行和交易业务带来的损失。在短期内，净利息收入将会上升，因为预期7月份还会有一次加息。不过，花旗集团需要把重点放在减少全球投资银行业务的费用上，这在很大程度上导致了当前季度收入的下降。第三季度建议交易区间：43美元至48美元。中性前景。

Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $20.53B, +20.6% YoY, beat estimates by $410M
  • 2Q23 GAAP EPS: $1.25, beat estimates by $0.09
  • FY23 Guidance: The company boosted its outlook for full-year net interest income but expects noninterest expense to be higher than its previous guidance. Expects FY23 net interest income to increase ~14% from 2022’s $45.0B level, compared with its previous guidance of up 10%
  • Comment: The company reported a surge in its net interest income by 29% from a year earlier to $20.53B. The bank’s soured loans in its commercial business grew, but its consumer business held steady, with a slight rise in credit-card defaults offset by a drop in losses on auto loans. The bank set aside $9549M to cover soured loans coming mainly from the commercial real estate sector, which is likely to worsen in the near term as the Fed is set to deliver another rate hike in July. The US commercial real estate is also expected to face prolonged challenges with tight lending conditions, as well as a low occupancy rate after the pandemic. The bank should look towards more strategies to deal with the sector’s weakness, possibly diversifying more of its business strategies into other areas. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $42 to $47. Neutral Outlook.

富国银行 (WFC)

  • 23财年第二季营收：205.3亿美元, 同比增幅20.6%，超预期4.1亿美元  
  • 23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：1.25美元，超预期0.09美元  
  • 23财年指引：该公司上调了全年净利息收入预期，但预计非利息支出将高于此前的预期。预计23财年净利息收入将比2022年的450亿美元水平增长约14%，而此前的指引为增长10%。
  • 短评：该公司报告称，其净利息收入较上年同期激增29%，达到205.3亿美元。该行商业业务中的不良贷款有所增长，但消费者业务保持稳定，信用卡违约率略有上升，但被汽车贷款损失的下降所抵消。该行拨备了9.49亿美元，用于支付主要来自商业房地产行业的不良贷款。由于美联储将在7月份再次加息，短期内不良贷款可能会恶化。预计美国商业地产也将面临长期的挑战，因为贷款条件紧张，以及疫情后的低入住率。该银行应该寻求更多策略来应对该行业的疲软，可能会将更多业务策略分散到其他领域。23年第三季度建议交易区间：42至47美元。中性前景。

BlackRock Inc. (BLK) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $4.46B, -1.4% YoY, beat estimates by $10M
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $9.28, beat estimates by $0.86
  • FY23 Guidance: No guidance provided, but the company expected a resurgence in demand for its fixed income funds with the interest rate topping-out.
  • Comment: Revenue from its investment advisory, administration fees and securities lending increased QoQ, buoying its net inflows. Its long-term quarterly net inflows amounted to $80B less than the previous $103B in the last quarter. However, ETF flows inclined to $48B from $22B in 1Q23. Despite facing rising inflationary pressures, the company performed better than expected with AUM increasing from $9.09T to $9.43T, showing continued investor confidence in the firm’s asset management arm. Even with interest rates anticipated to continue rising, we believe that it will continue to maintain its strong performance with its ETF and platform showing the most potential for growth. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $725 to $785. Positive Outlook.

贝莱德 (BLK)

  • 23财年第二季营收：446亿美元, 同比跌幅1.4%，超预期1,000万美元  
  • 23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：9.25美元，超预期0.86美元  
  • 23财年指引：该公司没有提供指引，但预计随着利率触顶，对其固定收益基金的需求将回升。
  • 短评：来自投资咨询、管理费用和证券贷款的收入环比增长，提振了净流入。其长期季度净流入为800亿美元，低于上一季度的1030亿美元。然而，ETF资金流从23年第一季度的220亿美元增长至480亿美元。尽管面临不断上升的通胀压力，但该公司的表现好于预期，资产管理规模从9.09万亿美元增至9.43万亿美元，显示投资者对该公司资产管理部门的信心持续增强。即使利率预计将继续上升，我们相信它将继续保持强劲的表现，其ETF和平台显示出最大的增长潜力。第三季度建议交易区间：725至780美元。积极前景。