Technical Analysis – 10 November 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Cameco Corp (CCJ US)

Shares closed above the 5mEMA with rising volume.
MACD is positive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
Long – Entry 41.5, Target 44.5, Stop 40.0

Energy Fuels Inc (UUUU US)

Shares closed above the 20dEMA with an increase in volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
Long – Entry 7.70, Target 8.24, Stop 7.43

SBS Transit Ltd (SBUS SP)

Shares closed above the 50dEMA. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
Long – Entry 2.55, Target 2.65, Stop 2.50

Delfi Ltd (DELFI SP)

Shares closed above the 5dEMA. The 20dEMA touched the 50dEMA.
Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
Long – Entry 1.26, Target 1.32, Stop 1.23

Kunlun Energy Company Ltd (135 HK)

Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
Long – Entry 6.70, Target 7.00, Stop 6.55

China Resources Gas Group Ltd (1193 HK)

Shares closed above the 50dEMA with a spike in volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 50dEMA.
RSI is constructive and MACD turned positive.
Long – Entry 23.3, Target 25.1, Stop 22.4

Li Auto Inc (LI)

3Q23 Revenue: $4.75B, +271.2% YoY, beat estimates by $170M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPADS: $0.45
4Q23 Guidance: Deliveries of vehicles to be between 125,000 and 128,000, representing an increase of 169.9% to 176.3% from the fourth quarter of 2022. Total revenues to be between RMB38.46B (US$5.27B) and RMB39.38B (US$5.40B), representing an increase of 117.9% to 123.1% from the fourth quarter of 2022 vs. the consensus of $4.78B.
Comment: Li Auto Inc reported robust financial performance in 3Q23, with vehicle sales reaching $4.61 billion, a 271.6% YoY increase. The total vehicle deliveries surged to 105,108 units, marking a 296.3% YoY increase. As of 30 September, Li Auto boasted 361 retail stores across 131 cities, along with 318 servicing centers and authorised body and paint shops in 213 cities. The company’s revenue exceeded expectations, totaling 34.7bn yuan ($4.8bn), showcasing a 271% YoY increase. Li Auto’s success is attributed to delivering over 105,000 electric vehicles in Q3, up from approximately 26,500 in the same period last year. The company anticipates maintaining a similar delivery pace in the fourth quarter, projecting between 41,700 and 42,600 vehicles per month. Notably, Li Auto surpassed Tesla’s China business in October, selling a record 40,422 cars compared to Tesla’s 28,626, as reported by the China Passenger Car Association. Li Auto’s strategic approach, including offering SUVs with a fuel tank for battery charging and plans for battery-only models, positions the company as a formidable player in the electric vehicle market. The company also intends to expand its research and development team for autonomous driving, aiming to increase it from around 900 to over 2,500 by the end of 2025. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $34 to $44. Positive Outlook.

理想汽车 (LI)

23财年第三季营收：47.5亿美元, 同比增幅271.2%，超预期1.7亿美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.45美元
23财年第四季指引：汽车交付量将在12.5万至12.8万辆之间，比2022年第四季度增长169.9%至176.3%。总收入将在384.6亿元人民币（52.7亿美元）至393.8亿元人民币（50.4亿美元）之间，较2022年第四季度增长117.9%至123.1%，而市场预期为47.8亿美元。
短评：理想汽车公司在23年第三季度报告了强劲的财务表现，汽车销量达到46.1亿美元，同比增长271.6%。汽车总交付量飙升至105,108辆，同比增长296.3%。截至9月30日，理想汽车在131个城市拥有361家零售店，在213个城市拥有318个服务中心、授权机构和油漆店。该公司的收入超过预期，总计347亿元人民币（48亿美元），同比增长271%。理想汽车的成功归因于第三季度交付了超过105,000辆电动汽车，高于去年同期的约26,500辆。该公司预计第四季度将保持类似的交付速度，预计每月41,700至42,600辆。值得注意的是，根据中国乘用车协会的报告，理想汽车在10月份超过了特斯拉的中国业务，销售了创纪录的40,422辆汽车，而特斯拉的28,626辆。理想汽车的战略方针，包括提供带电池充电油箱的SUV，以及纯电池车型的计划，使该公司成为电动汽车市场上一个强大的参与者。该公司还打算扩大其自动驾驶研发团队，目标是到2025年底将其从900人左右增加到2,500人以上。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：34美元至44美元。积极前景。

Novavax Inc (NVAX)

3Q23 Revenue: $187M, -74.5% YoY, beat estimates by $23.76M
3Q23 GAAP EPS: -$1.26, beat estimates by $0.54
FY23 Guidance: Novavax is expecting total Revenue of $1.3B – $1.5B vs. consensus of $1.37B. For 1Q24, Total Revenue of $300M vs. consensus of $150.00M.
Comment: Novavax has surpassed market expectations for quarterly revenue, reaching $187mn, although a decline from $734.58mn last year. However, as the company anticipates a smaller COVID-19 vaccine market, it expects to cut costs by more than $300mn in 2024. Despite reducing liabilities by $128mn in Q3 and securing more than $2bn in cash through end-2025 from already secured revenues, Novavax reiterated its “going concern warning”, casting doubt on its ability to operate in the long run. To combat this the company aims to drive higher efficiencies, focusing on a leaner structure, and expects the US market for COVID shots in 2023-2024 to be between 30mn and 50mn doses. Novavax’s updated COVID shot, employing a more traditional technology, was authorised in the US in October. Novavax is striving to navigate the evolving landscape of the COVID-19 vaccine market. However, the going concern warning is a justifiable cause for concern. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $6.0 to $7.0. Negative Outlook.

诺瓦瓦克斯医药 (NVAX)

23财年第三季营收：1.87亿美元, 同比跌幅74.5%，超预期2,376万美元
23财年第三季GAAP每股亏损：1.26美元，超预期0.54美元
23财年指引：公司预计总收入为13亿至15亿美元，而市场预期为13.7亿美元。24年第一季度，总收入为3亿美元，市场预期为1.5亿美元。
短评：公司的季度收入超过了市场预期，达到1.87亿美元，尽管比去年的7.3458亿美元有所下降。然而，由于该公司预计COVID-19疫苗市场将缩小，它预计到2024年将削减3亿多美元的成本。尽管Novavax在第三季度减少了1.28亿美元的负债，并在2025年底前从已获得的收入中获得了逾20亿美元的现金，但该公司重申了其“持续经营警告”，这让人怀疑其长期运营能力。为了解决这个问题，该公司的目标是提高效率，专注于更精简的结构，并预计2023-2024年美国市场的COVID疫苗数量将在3000万至5000万剂之间。Novavax的新型COVID疫苗采用了更传统的技术，于10月在美国获得批准。Novavax正在努力驾驭不断变化的COVID-19疫苗市场格局。然而，持续经营警告是值得关注的理由。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：6.0美元至7.0美元。负面前景。

Tapestry Inc (TPR)

1Q24 Revenue: $1.51B, +0.7% YoY, miss estimates by $30M
1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.93, beat estimates by $0.03
FY24 Guidance: Maintained expectations for revenue of approximately $6.7B vs. consensus of $6.87B, representing a slight increase to prior year on a reported basis. Excluding an FX headwind of approximately 150 basis points, Tapestry expects constant currency revenue growth of 2% to 3% compared to the prior year; Net interest expense of approximately $20M; Tax rate of approximately 20%; Weighted average diluted share count of approximately 235M shares; Earnings per diluted share of $4.10 to $4.15 vs. consensus of $4.12, representing approximately 6% to 7% growth compared to the prior year; Free cash flow of approximately $1.1B, excluding deal-related costs.
Comment: Tapestry reported record first-quarter earnings per share, showcasing progress in strategic priorities. Revenue grew by 2% in constant currency, driven by a 7% increase internationally, notably in Greater China. The company is committed to investing in brand growth in China despite a volatile consumer environment. Customer engagement efforts resulted in acquiring over 1.2mn new customers, particularly from Gen Z and millennials. Tapestry emphasised omnichannel experiences, with direct-to-consumer sales growth and strong digital positioning. The Coach brand saw a 5% constant currency revenue growth, driven by successful product launches. Kate Spade reported sequential improvement, with gains in handbag AUR and growth in jewelry and footwear. Stuart Weitzman faced external challenges but focused on product innovation and marketing campaigns. Tapestry maintained strong financials, with record gross margin expansion and growth in EPS. The company anticipates a more moderate sales growth but maintained earnings expectations. The planned acquisition of Capri Holdings is progressing, with shareholder approval received, regulatory approvals underway, and integration planning ongoing. Tapestry remains confident in its ability to execute the transformational acquisition and position itself as a leader in the luxury and fashion industry. The current consumer environment in its targeted market China, makes it slightly more challenging for them as consumers in China are not as willing to spend. However, with the company targeting the younger generation with more trendy and less pricey (as compared to other luxury brands) accessories ,it could help to support the company’s revenue going forward. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $26 to $30. Neutral Outlook.

Tapestry (TPR)

24财年第一季营收：15.1亿美元, 同比增幅0.7%，逊预期3,000万美元
24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.93美元，超预期0.03美元
24财年指引：维持对收入约67亿美元的预期，而市场普遍预期为68.7亿美元，在报告基础上较上年略有增长。剔除约150个基点的外汇不利因素，Tapestry预计与去年相比，固定货币收入将增长2%至3%；净利息支出约2000万美元；税率约为20%；加权平均摊薄股数约为2.35亿股；摊薄后每股收益为4.10美元至4.15美元，而市场预期为4.12美元，同比增长约6%至7%；自由现金流约为11亿美元，不包括交易相关成本。
短评：Tapestry公布了创纪录的第一季度每股收益，显示了战略重点的进展。按固定汇率计算，营收增长了2%，这主要得益于国际市场（尤其是大中华区）7%的增长。尽管中国的消费环境不稳定，但该公司仍致力于在中国投资品牌增长。客户参与的努力获得了超过120万的新客户，特别是来自Z世代和千禧一代的客户。Tapestry强调全渠道体验，以直接面向消费者的销售增长和强大的数字定位。在成功推出新产品的推动下，Coach品牌的固定汇率收入增长了5%。凯特·斯佩德 (Kate Spade) 的业绩连续改善，手袋的AUR有所增长，珠宝和鞋类也有所增长。斯图尔特·韦茨曼面临着外部挑战，但他专注于产品创新和营销活动。Tapestry保持了强劲的财务状况，毛利率增长创纪录，每股收益增长创纪录。该公司预计销售增长较为温和，但维持盈利预期。收购Capri Holdings的计划正在进行中，目前已获得股东批准，监管机构正在批准，整合计划正在进行中。Tapestry仍然对其执行转型收购的能力充满信心，并将自己定位为奢侈品和时尚行业的领导者。在其目标市场中国，目前的消费环境使他们面临的挑战略大，因为中国消费者不愿意花钱。然而，与其他奢侈品牌相比，该公司以更时尚、更便宜的配饰瞄准年轻一代，这可能有助于支持公司未来的收入。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：26美元至30美元。中性前景。

Unity Software Inc (U)

3Q23 Revenue: $544.21M, +68.6% YoY, miss estimates by $5.2M
3Q23 GAAP EPS: -$0.32, beat estimates by $0.17
4Q23 Guidance: No guidance provided.
Comment: Unity Software missed Q3 revenue analyst expectations and beat earnings estimates. The revenue growth of 69% YoY was attributed to the acquisition of mobile advertising company ironSource. Unity acknowledged challenges in its Create Solutions segment, including lower revenue from China due to gaming restrictions. The company faced backlash in September for new fees linked to game installations, prompting changes in plans and the retirement of CEO John Riccitiello. Unity’s Grow Solutions segment, involving game publishing and advertising, saw revenue of $355.3mn, surpassing expectations despite pressure from the new fees. Management is working on a new charging strategy and expects changes, including potential discontinuations and layoffs. The company did not provide guidance due to uncertainties related to ongoing changes. Former Red Hat CEO Jim Whitehurst is serving as Unity’s interim chief, and the board is searching for a permanent CEO. Changes to the business are expected to be completed by the end of the first quarter of 2024. With various changes underway, we anticipate some instability within the company, which has impacted investor confidence in the stock, leading to its decline. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $10 to $24. Negative Outlook.

Unity (U)

23财年第三季营收：5.4421亿美元, 同比增幅68.6%，逊预期520万美元
23财年第三季GAAP每股亏损：0.32美元，超预期0.17美元
23财年第四季指引：指不提供指引。
短评：Unity软件公司第三季度收入低于分析师预期，收益超过预期。营收同比增长69%归功于对移动广告公司ironSource的收购。Unity承认其创造解决方案部门面临挑战，包括由于游戏限制而导致的中国营收下降。该公司在9月份因与游戏安装相关的新费用而遭到强烈反对，促使其改变计划，并导致首席执行官约翰·里奇蒂洛 (John Riccitiello) 退休。Unity的Grow Solutions部门（包括游戏发行和广告）的营收为3.553亿美元，尽管面临新收费的压力，但仍超出了预期。管理层正在制定新的收费策略，并预计会发生变化，包括可能的停产和裁员。由于与持续变化相关的不确定性，公司没有提供指导。前红帽公司 (Red Hat) 首席执行官吉姆•怀特赫斯特 (Jim Whitehurst) 将担任Unity的临时首席执行官，董事会正在寻找一位永久首席执行官。该业务的变化预计将在2024年第一季度末完成。随着各种变化的进行，我们预计公司内部会出现一些不稳定，这会影响投资者对股票的信心，导致其下跌。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：20美元至24美元。负面前景。

Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN)

3Q23 Revenue: $1.67B, +87.7% YoY, beat estimates by $90M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.99, beat estimates by $0.19
4Q23 Guidance: Expect CapEx-related to concession commitments to range between $300 million and $400 million in total between Q4 2023 and the end of 2024.
Comment: In Q3, Wynn Resorts surpassed revenue and earnings expectations. Wynn Las Vegas achieved $220mn in adjusted property EBITDA, up 12% YoY, with strong growth in various metrics such as hotel occupancy, restaurant covers, and casino visitation. Encore in Boston generated $60mn of EBITDAR, and despite stable YoY business, October showed positive momentum. In Macau, Wynn reported $255mn in EBITDA, reaching 85% of pre-COVID levels. The positive performance in revenue was driven by robust demand in gaming, luxury retail, and hotel bookings at its Macau properties amid the travel rebound. Despite challenges, the company anticipates further growth, with encouraging trends in mass drop and non-gaming sectors. Progress on the development projects in Macau and the UAE has been smooth. However, the company is currently in negotiations with Las Vegas hospitality workers’ unions over a new labour contract, with a strike deadline set for 10 November. Its competitors MGM Resorts International and Caesars Entertainment have tentative deals, whereas Wynn Resorts has yet to reach an agreement, which is a cause for concern for investors, overshadowing its promising results in Q3. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $75 to $90. Neutral Outlook.

永利度假村 (WYNN)

23财年第三季营收：16.7亿美元, 同比增幅87.7%，超预期9,000万美元
23财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：0.99美元，超预期0.19美元
23财年第四季指引：预计从2023年第四季度到2024年底，与特许经营承诺相关的资本支出将在3亿至4亿美元之间。
短评：第三季度，永利度假村的收入和盈利均超出预期。永利拉斯维加斯在调整后的房地产EBITDA中实现了2.2亿美元，同比增长12%，酒店入住率、餐厅覆盖率和赌场访问量等各项指标均有强劲增长。波士顿的Encore公司产生了6,000万美元的EBITDAR，尽管业务同比稳定，但10月份表现出了积极的势头。在澳门，永利报告的EBITDA为2.55亿美元，达到疫情前水平的85%。在旅游业反弹的背景下，博彩、奢侈品零售和澳门物业的酒店预订需求强劲，推动了收入的积极表现。尽管面临挑战，但该公司预计将进一步增长，在大规模下降和非游戏领域出现令人鼓舞的趋势。澳门和阿联酋的发展项目进展顺利。然而，该公司目前正在与拉斯维加斯酒店工人工会就一项新的劳动合同进行谈判，罢工的最后期限定为11月10日。其竞争对手美高梅国际酒店集团 (MGM Resorts International) 和凯撒娱乐 (Caesars Entertainment) 已达成初步协议，而永利度假村 (Wynn Resorts) 尚未达成协议，这令投资者感到担忧，令其第三季度令人鼓舞的业绩蒙上阴影。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：75美元至90美元。中性前景。