Technical Analysis – 1 November 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

AT&T Inc. (T US)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with more volume.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 22.30 Target 24.30, Stop 21.30
  

Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ US)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume.
  
• MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is turning constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 41.80 Target 44.80, Stop 40.30
  

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Hongkong Land Holdings Ltd. (HKL SP)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume.
  
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 4.25, Target 4.65, Stop 4.05
  

Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd. (JM SP)

• Shares closed at the 200dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 38.0 Target 41.0, Stop 36.5
  

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Prada S.p.A. (1913 HK)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 20dEMA recently crossed the 200dEMA and the 50dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 59.0, Target 65.0, Stop 56.0
  

China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd. (2319 HK)

• Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA with more volume. 5dEMA recently crossed the 20dEMA and is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 17.0, Target 19.0, Stop 16.0
  

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Eli Lilly And Co. (LLY)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $11.44B, +20.5% YoY, miss estimates by $680M
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.18, miss estimates by $0.29
  
• FY24 Guidance: Expect revenue to be in the range of $45.4bn to $46.0bn; Expect non-GAAP other expenses to be between $325mn to $425mn; Expect non-GAAP EPS to be between $13.02 to $13.52, compared to $16.10 to $16.60 previously.
  
• Comment: Eli Lilly Co. reported disappointing results as demand for its high-profile weight-loss and diabetes medications fell short of market expectations, with inventory sitting in warehouses—a significant reversal for a company that had previously struggled to keep up with surging demand. As a result, Lilly lowered both its FY24 profit outlook as well as the upper range of its sales guidance. The company’s weight-loss drug Zepbound and diabetes treatment Mounjaro, which had previously been in short supply due to high demand, are now readily available, with distributors working through existing inventory. Management noted that demand was tempered as wholesalers and resellers adjusted their orders based on their own logistical and financial constraints. Additionally, Lilly had not yet begun advertising Zepbound and had delayed international launches to focus on building U.S. inventory. The company’s third-quarter profit was also impacted by a previously disclosed $2.8bn acquisition-related charge and rising manufacturing costs. Looking ahead, Lilly expects demand to gradually align with supply, as obesity and diabetes remain pressing health issues, with over 20% of U.S. adults living with obesity. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $750 to $900. Neutral Outlook.
  

礼来 (LLY)

• 24财年第三季营收：114.4亿美元，同比增幅20.5%，逊预期6.8亿美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.18美元，逊预期0.29美元
  
• 24财年指引：预计营收将在454亿美元至460亿美元之间；预计Non-GAAP其他费用将在3.25亿美元至4.25亿美元之间；预计Non-GAAP每股收益将在13.02美元至13.52美元之间，而此前为16.10美元至16.60美元。
  
• 短评：礼来公司公布了令人失望的业绩，因其备受瞩目的减肥和糖尿病药物需求不及市场预期，库存积压。对于这家此前难以满足激增需求的公司来说，这是一个重大逆转。因此，礼来下调了其24财年的利润预期以及销售指导的上限。该公司的减肥药Zepbound和糖尿病治疗药物Mounjaro此前因需求旺盛而供不应求，现在通过经销商利用现有库存可以随时获得。管理层指出，由于批发商和经销商根据自己的物流和财务限制调整了订单，需求有所缓和。此外，礼来还没有开始为Zepbound做广告，并推迟了国际上市，以专注于建立美国库存。该公司第三季度利润还受到此前披露的28亿美元收购相关费用和制造成本上升的影响。展望未来，礼来预计需求将逐渐与供应保持一致，因为肥胖和糖尿病仍然是紧迫的健康问题，超过20%的美国成年人患有肥胖症。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：750至900美元。中性前景。
  

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $16.1B, -4.2% YoY, miss estimates by $140M
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $5.17, miss estimates by $0.18
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: The company anticipates sales in the 4Q24 to be slightly lower than 4Q23. The decline in dealer inventories of machines is expected to be less than $1.4bn reported in 4Q23. Machine sales to end users will be lower compared with a stronger 4Q23. The 4Q24 adjusted operating margin will be lower sequentially due to seasonality.
  
• FY24 guidance: Caterpillar expects FY24 revenues to be slightly lower than the record FY23 revenues of $67BN. At revenues of around $64.5bn, the projected adjusted operating profit margin target range is 16%-20%. Both adjusted operating profit and earnings per share are likely to be higher than previous expectations.
  
• Comment: Caterpillar reported disappointing results and lowered its annual revenue forecast once again, citing weak demand in Europe and Asia-Pacific and reduced equipment stocking by independent dealers in North America. The revised outlook comes after an initial surge in post-pandemic demand and a boost from the $1tn U.S. infrastructure law signed by President Biden in 2021, aimed at upgrading roads, bridges, and related infrastructure. In recent quarters, however, demand has softened as customers face higher borrowing costs, economic uncertainty, and a downturn in China’s property market, raising concerns about the outlook for 2025. The company also noted that benefits from earlier price hikes, introduced to counter high production costs, are beginning to wane. Looking ahead, analysts have warned that Caterpillar may be entering a cyclical demand slowdown that could extend through 2025. Despite this, management remains optimistic about long-term U.S. demand, pointing to unspent funds from the infrastructure law. Meanwhile, the company reported ongoing weakness in China’s market for excavators over 10 tons, with no evident impact yet from the Chinese government’s recent stimulus efforts. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $350 to $400. Neutral Outlook.
  

卡特彼勒 (CAT)

• 24财年第三季营收：161亿美元，同比跌幅4.2%，逊预期1.4亿美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：5.17美元，逊预期0.18美元
  
• 24财年第四季指引：该公司预计24年第四季度的销售额将略低于23年第四季度。据报道，23年第四季度经销商的机器库存下降幅度预计将低于14亿美元。与强劲的23年第四季度相比，终端用户的机器销售将会下降。由于季节性因素，第4季度调整后的营业利润率将依次下降。
  
• 24财年指引：卡特彼勒预计，24财年营收将略低于创纪录的23财年营收670亿美元，收入约为645亿美元，预计调整后的营业利润率目标范围为16%-20%。调整后的营业利润和每股收益都可能高于此前的预期。
  
• 短评：卡特彼勒公布了令人失望的业绩，并再次下调了年度营收预期，原因是欧洲和亚太地区需求疲软，以及北美独立经销商减少了设备库存。修订后的展望是在疫情后需求最初激增以及拜登总统于2021年签署的1万亿美元美国基础设施法的推动下做出的，该法旨在升级道路、桥梁和相关基础设施。然而，最近几个季度，由于客户面临更高的借贷成本、经济不确定性以及中国房地产市场的低迷，引发了对2025年前景的担忧，需求有所放缓。该公司还指出，早些时候为应对高生产成本而实施的价格上涨所带来的好处正开始减弱。展望未来，分析师警告称，卡特彼勒可能正在进入周期性需求放缓，这种放缓可能会持续到2025年。尽管如此，管理层仍对美国的长期需求持乐观态度，并指出基础设施法案中未动用的资金。与此同时，该公司报告称，中国10吨以上挖掘机市场持续疲软，中国政府最近的刺激措施尚未产生明显影响。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：350至400美元。中性前景。
  

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $65.59B, +16.1% YoY, beat estimates by $1.03B
  
• 1Q25 GAAP EPS: $3.30, beat estimates by $0.19
  
• 2Q25 Guidance: Expect 1Q25 revenue to be in the range of $68.1bn to $69.1bn, compared to a consensus of $69.83bn; Expect a growth of 31% to 32% for Azure at constant currency.
  
• Comment: Microsoft reported strong results, with Azure growth exceeding expectations at 33%, just above the market estimate of 32.8%. Demand for Azure also continues to outpace the company’s capacity. However, Microsoft provided a tempered outlook for 2Q25, projecting slower-than-expected growth. The company’s significant investments in AI remain a major focus for investors, as Microsoft expands its infrastructure and increases chip spending to support larger workloads. However, Microsoft noted that delays from third-party suppliers in delivering data center infrastructure will prevent it from fully meeting demand in 2Q25. Management anticipates that supply and demand will realign by the second half of 2025. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $380 to $430. Neutral Outlook.
  

微软 (MSFT)

• 25财年第一季营收：655.9亿美元，同比增幅16.1%，超预期10.3亿美元
  
• 25财年第一季GAAP每股盈利：3.3美元，超预期0.19美元
  
• 25财年第二季指引：预计第一季度营收将在681亿美元至691亿美元之间，而市场预期为698.3亿美元；按固定汇率计算，Azure预计将增长31%至32%。
  
• 短评：微软公布了强劲的业绩，Azure增长超过预期，达到33%，略高于市场预期的32.8%。对Azure的需求也继续超过公司的能力。不过，微软对25年第二季度的经济增长前景持温和态度，预计增长将低于预期。随着微软扩大其基础设施并增加芯片支出以支持更大的工作负载，该公司在人工智能方面的重大投资仍然是投资者关注的主要焦点。然而，微软指出，第三方供应商在交付数据中心基础设施方面的延迟将使其无法在25年第二季度完全满足需求。管理层预计，到2025年下半年，供需将重新调整。25财年第二季度建议交易区间：380至430美元。中性前景。
  

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $40.59B, +18.9% YoY, beat estimates by $280M
  
• 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $6.03, beat estimates by $0.74
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect 4Q24 revenue to be in the range of $45bn to $48bn; expects FY24 total expenses to be in the range of $96bn to $98bn, compared to a range of $96bn to $99bn previously; Expect FY24 operating loss to increase meaningfully YoY for Reality Labs due to ongoing product development efforts and investments to further scale their ecosystem; Expect FY24 CAPEX to be in the rang of $38bn to $40bn, compared to $37bn to $40bn previously; Expect to continue significant CAPEX growth in 2025; Expect 4Q24 tax rate to be in the low-teens.
  
• Comment: Meta Platforms reported stronger-than-expected results, with Meta AI—a generative AI chatbot capable of generating images and answering questions—now reaching over 500mn monthly active users, up significantly from 400mn in September. The company also announced a “significant acceleration” in AI-related infrastructure spending for next year, which has raised investor concerns about rising AI costs. Meta will need to demonstrate its ability to cover these increasing expenses, as any weakness in its core advertising business could heighten investor caution while they await returns on Meta’s larger AI investments. Additionally, the company projected continued operating losses for its Reality Labs division, citing ongoing product development and investment aimed at scaling its ecosystem. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $530 to $610. Neutral Outlook.
  

Meta平台 (META)

• 24财年第三季营收：405.9亿美元，同比增幅18.9%，超预期2.8亿美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：6.03美元，超预期0.74美元
  
• 24财年第四季指引：预计第四季度营收将在450亿美元至480亿美元之间；预计24财年总支出将在960亿至980亿美元之间，而此前为960亿至990亿美元；由于持续的产品开发工作和进一步扩大生态系统的投资，预计Reality Labs的24财年运营亏损将同比大幅增加；预计24财年资本支出将在380亿至400亿美元之间，而此前为370亿至400亿美元；预计2025年资本支出将继续大幅增长；预计24年第四季度的税率将在15%左右。
  
• 短评：Meta平台报告了强于预期的结果，Meta人工智能——一个能够生成图像和回答问题的生成人工智能聊天机器人——现在每月活跃用户超过5亿，比9月份的4亿显著增加。该公司还宣布，明年将“大幅加速”与人工智能相关的基础设施支出，这引发了投资者对人工智能成本上升的担忧。Meta需要证明自己有能力支付这些不断增加的费用，因为其核心广告业务的任何弱点都可能加剧投资者的谨慎，同时他们正在等待Meta更大规模的人工智能投资的回报。此外，该公司预计其现实实验室部门将继续亏损，原因是正在进行的产品开发和投资旨在扩大其生态系统。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：530至610美元。中性前景。
  

Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $1.21B, +79.5% YoY, miss estimates by $40M
  
• 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $0.28, miss estimates by $0.10
  
• FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  
• Comment: Coinbase Global reported weaker-than-expected third-quarter 2024 results, impacted by subdued trading activity in the cryptocurrency market. Lower crypto prices drove trading volumes down to $185bn from $226bn in the previous quarter, resulting in lower transaction fees for the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. Coinbase also emphasized that the upcoming 2024 elections mark a key opportunity to advance regulatory clarity for crypto, with both U.S. presidential candidates and over 350 federal office candidates now voicing pro-crypto stances. This anticipated regulatory progress is expected to heighten cryptocurrency volatility, which would likely benefit Coinbase. Additionally, Coinbase has a 50/50 revenue-sharing agreement with Circle for interest income on reserves backing USD Coin (USDC), the market’s second-largest dollar-backed stablecoin. However, this revenue could face pressure as interest rates are expected to decline. In its earnings report, Coinbase also announced a $1bn stock buyback. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $170 to $210. Neutral Outlook.
  

Coinbase全球 (COIN)

• 24财年第三季营收：12.1亿美元，同比增幅79.5%，逊预期4,000万美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.28美元，逊预期0.10美元
  
• 24财年指引：不提供指引。
  
• 短评：受加密货币市场交易活动低迷的影响，Coinbase Global公布的2024年第三季度业绩低于预期。加密货币价格下跌导致交易量从上一季度的2,260亿美元降至1,850亿美元，导致这家全球最大的加密货币交易所的交易费用下降。Coinbase还强调，即将到来的2024年大选是提高加密监管透明度的关键机会，美国总统候选人和350多名联邦办公室候选人现在都表达了支持加密的立场。这种预期的监管进展预计会加剧加密货币的波动性，这可能会使Coinbase受益。此外，Coinbase还与Circle达成了一项50/50的收入分成协议，分享支持美元币（USDC）的储备利息收入。USDC是市场上第二大美元支持的稳定币。然而，由于利率预计将下降，这一收入可能面临压力。在其收益报告中，Coinbase还宣布了10亿美元的股票回购计划。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：170至220美元。中性前景。
  

Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $9.07B, -3.2% YoY, miss estimates by $70M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.80, miss estimates by $0.09
  
• FY25 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  
• Comment: Starbucks reported disappointing results as demand for its premium beverages continued to decline in its key U.S. and China markets. The company’s global same-store sales for the full year dropped by 2% compared to 2023, driven by a 4% decrease in comparable transactions. Profitability also suffered, with operating income down 8% YoY to $5.4bn. The declines reflect both macroeconomic pressures and company-specific challenges. Rising inflation has led consumers to dine out less frequently, while China’s sluggish economic recovery has further pressured sales. CEO Brian Niccol, newly appointed in August, outlined plans to revamp U.S. Starbucks locations by adding more comfortable seating, ceramic mugs, a coffee-condiment bar, and reducing customer wait times to under four minutes, along with a streamlined menu. Management acknowledged the financial results were below expectations and emphasized the need for a fundamental strategy shift to re-engage customers and return to growth. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $90to $105. Neutral Outlook.
  

星巴克 (SBUX)

• 24财年第四季营收：90.7亿美元，同比跌幅3.2%，逊预期7,000万美元
  
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.80美元，逊预期0.09美元
  
• 25财年指引：不提供指引。
  
• 短评：巴克公布了令人失望的业绩，因为其在美国和中国的主要市场对高端饮料的需求持续下降。与2023年相比，该公司全年的全球同店销售额下降了2%，原因是可比交易减少了4%。盈利能力也受到影响，营业收入同比下降8%，至54亿美元。这一下降反映了宏观经济压力和公司特有的挑战。通货膨胀加剧导致消费者外出就餐的频率降低，而中国经济复苏乏力进一步打压了销售。今年8月新上任的首席执行官布莱恩•尼科尔（Brian Niccol）概述了星巴克在美国门店的改造计划，包括增加更舒适的座位、陶瓷马克杯、咖啡调味品吧、将顾客等待时间缩短至4分钟以下，以及简化菜单。管理层承认，财务业绩低于预期，并强调需要进行根本性的战略转变，以重新吸引客户并恢复增长。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：90至105美元。中性前景。
  

Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $11.2B, +20.6% YoY, beat estimates by $220M
  
• 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $1.20, beat estimates by $0.79
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect 4Q24 gross booking to be between $42.75bn to $44.23bn, representing a YoY growth of 16% to 20%; Expect trips YoY growth to be similar compared to 3Q24; Expect adjusted EBITDA of $1.78bn to $1.88bn, representing a YoY growth of 39% to 47%.
  
• Comment: Uber Technologies reported strong results, yet indicated a further slowdown in its core ride-hailing business, forecasting fourth-quarter 2024 gross bookings below Wall Street expectations. Third-quarter bookings growth—a key indicator of ridership for online taxi services—slowed to its lowest rate in over a year and missed market projections. Uber’s outlook reflects broader concerns about softening demand in the ride-hailing industry, as high inflation and economic uncertainty weigh on commuter activity. However, expectations for declining interest rates could gradually improve consumer spending across the market. Looking ahead, Uber, as the leading ride-sharing provider in North America, sees growth potential in U.S. suburban areas and beyond, amid concerns of urban market saturation. The company plans to target suburban markets with optimized pricing for longer rides and features tailored to suburban needs, such as ride reservations and flexible wait times. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $65 to $80. Neutral Outlook.
  

优步科技 (UBER)

• 24财年第三季营收：112亿美元，同比增幅20.6%，超预期2.2亿美元
  
• 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：1.2美元，超预期0.79美元
  
• 24财年第四季指引：预计第4季度总预订额将在47.5亿美元至442.3亿美元之间，同比增长16%至20%；预计出行同比增长将与第三季度持平；预计调整后的EBITDA为17.8亿至18.8亿美元，同比增长39%至47%。
  
• 短评：优步科技公布了强劲的业绩，但表示其核心叫车业务将进一步放缓，预计2024年第四季度的总预订量将低于华尔街的预期。第三季度的预订量增长——在线出租车服务载客量的一个关键指标——放缓至一年多来的最低水平，低于市场预期。优步的前景反映出，随着高通胀和经济不确定性给通勤活动带来压力，人们对叫车行业需求疲软的普遍担忧。然而，对利率下降的预期可能会逐渐改善整个市场的消费者支出。展望未来，优步作为北美领先的拼车服务提供商，在担心城市市场饱和的情况下，看到了美国郊区及其他地区的增长潜力。该公司计划瞄准郊区市场，为长途旅行优化定价，并为郊区需求量身定制功能，如乘车预订和灵活的等待时间。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：65至80美元。中性前景。
  

Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $3.36B, -4.5% YoY, miss estimates by $10M
  
• 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.14, beat estimates by $0.04
  
• 1Q25 Dividend: Estee Lauder declares $0.35/share quarterly dividend, -47% decrease from prior dividend of $0.66; forward yield 1.61%; payable Dec. 16; for shareholders of record Nov 29; ex-div Nov 29.
  
• 2Q25 Guidance: Expect reported diluted EPS to be between $0.02 and $0.19; Expect reported and organic net sales to decrease between 8% and 6% YoY.
  
• Comment: Estée Lauder reported mixed results and lowered its annual sales and profit forecasts while also cutting its dividend, citing an uncertain outlook in China. Consumer sentiment in Mainland China weakened further in the first quarter of 2025, and the company anticipates significant industry declines in the near term. Additionally, Estée Lauder continues to struggle with soft demand in Asia’s travel retail sector, especially at major travel hubs like South Korea and China’s Hainan Island. As one of many luxury brands that have heavily invested in the Chinese market, Estée Lauder faces challenges as economic demand remains below pre-pandemic levels. Although the Chinese government recently announced a stimulus package aimed at reviving the economy, Estée Lauder does not expect this to meaningfully impact second-quarter performance. The company’s new CEO, Stéphane de La Faverie, will take over on January 1, 2025, amid these headwinds. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $55 to $75. Negative Outlook.
  

雅诗兰黛 (EL)

• 25财年第一季营收：33.6亿美元，同比跌幅4.5%，逊预期1,000万美元
  
• 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.14美元，逊预期0.04美元
  
• 25财年第一季股息：雅诗兰黛宣布派发每股0.35美元的季度股息，较之前每股0.66美元的股息减少47%；远期股息率为1.61%；12月16日为付息款；11月29日为股东登记日和除息日。
  
• 25财年第二季指引：预计报告的稀释每股收益将在0.02美元至0.19美元之间；预计报告和有机净销售额将同比下降8%至6%。
  
• 短评：雅诗兰黛公布了喜忧参半的业绩，并下调了年度销售和利润预期，同时还削减了股息，理由是中国市场前景不确定。中国内地消费者信心在2025年第一季度进一步走弱，该公司预计近期行业将出现大幅下滑。此外，雅诗兰黛仍在努力应对亚洲旅游零售业的需求疲软，尤其是在韩国和中国海南岛等主要旅游中心。作为在中国市场大举投资的众多奢侈品牌之一，雅诗兰黛面临着挑战，因为经济需求仍低于疫情前的水平。尽管中国政府最近宣布了一项旨在重振经济的刺激计划，但雅诗兰黛预计这不会对第二季度的业绩产生重大影响。在这些不利因素的影响下，该公司的新任首席执行官斯特萨芬·德拉·法维里将于2025年1月1日上任。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：55至75美元。负面前景。
  

Mastercard Inc. (MA)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $7.37B, +12.9% YoY, beat estimates by $100M
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.89, beat estimates by $0.14
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect net revenue to climb by a percentage in the low teens and an $85M charge, based on interest-rate assumptions.
  
• Comment: Mastercard reported stronger-than-expected Q3 profit, driven by a stable economic backdrop that encouraged increased consumer spending. Revenue rose 13% to US$7.4bn, with global purchase volume rose 11% to US$2.058tn, with cross-border volume up 17%. Mastercard earned US$3.89 per share, beating estimates of US$3.74, with profit up 2% to US$3.3bn. Its CEO cited strong consumer spending and demand for value-added services. The company expects net revenue growth in the low teens for Q4, alongside an anticipated US$85mn interest-related charge. Mastercard took a US$190mn charge related to a recent 3% global staff cut aimed at refocusing on growth areas and a US$176mn litigation provision related to previous credit card fee disputes. Despite Mastercard’s positive Q3 performance and strong growth in digital and international markets, concerns linger over potential regulatory issues. The European Commission’s investigation into alleged anti-competitive practices has impacted the company’s outlook negatively. Additionally, Mastercard’s reliance on consumer spending amid economic uncertainty, paired with significant charges from staff cuts and litigation, may impact Mastercard’s ability to sustain growth without facing further regulatory or operational setbacks. Its cautious outlook suggests that while growth prospects remain, there may be higher costs incurred. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $490 to $520. Neutral Outlook.
  

万事达 (MA)

• 24财年第三季营收：73.7亿美元，同比增幅12.9%，超预期1亿美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.89美元，超预期0.14美元
  
• 24财年第四季指引：在利率假设的基础上，预计净收入将在10%-15%左右区间内增长一个百分点，并产生8,500万美元的费用。
  
• 短评：万事达卡公布第三季度利润强于预期，受稳定的经济背景推动，消费者支出增加。收入增长13%至74亿美元，全球购买量增长11%至2.058万亿美元，跨境购买量增长17%。万事达卡每股盈利3.89美元，超过了3.74美元的预期，利润增长2%，达到33亿美元。该公司首席执行官提到了强劲的消费者支出和对增值服务的需求。该公司预计第四季度的净收入增长将在十几岁左右，同时预计利息相关费用为8500万美元。万事达卡计入了1.9亿美元的费用，这与最近3%的全球裁员有关，该裁员旨在重新专注于增长领域，以及与之前的信用卡费用纠纷有关的1.76亿美元诉讼准备金。尽管万事达卡第三季度业绩良好，在数字和国际市场增长强劲，但对潜在监管问题的担忧仍挥之不去。欧盟委员会对其涉嫌反竞争行为的调查，对该公司的前景产生了负面影响。此外，在经济不确定的情况下，万事达卡对消费者支出的依赖，加上裁员和诉讼带来的巨额费用，可能会影响万事达卡在不面临进一步监管或运营挫折的情况下维持增长的能力。其谨慎的前景表明，尽管增长前景依然存在，但可能会产生更高的成本。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：490至520美元。中性前景。
  

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $2.81B, +10.6% YoY, beat estimates by $40M
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.99, beat estimates by $0.05
  
• FY24 Guidance: Expect net yield on a constant currency basis to increase from the prior guidance to approximately 9.4% from 8.2%, driven by strong demand across all three brands and itineraries in 2H24. Adjusted EBITDA to increase $75M from the prior guidance to approximately $2.425B from $2.350B, due to better-than-expected Q3 results and increased guidance for Q4. Expect adjusted operational EBITDA margin for FY24 increased to 35.3%, up from previous guidance of 34.5%, adjusted net income guidance increased $665mn prior guidance to approximately $855mn from $790mn and adjusted EPS guidance increased approximately 8% to $1.65 from $1.53 vs $1.58 consensus. Net leverage is expected to end the year at 5.4x a reduction of almost two turns compared to 2023.
  
• Comment: Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings raised its annual profit forecast for the fourth time this year, driven by record Q3 revenue of US$2.81bn, a profit of US$475mn and high advance ticket sales, which reached a record US$3.3bn. The company now projects an adjusted profit of US$1.65 per share for 2024, up from the previous forecast of US$1.53. Its CEO credited strong demand for the guidance boost, anticipating 2024 to be a record year for revenue. Norwegian Cruise Line also increased its 2024 revenue-per-cruise-day growth forecast to 9.4%, up from 8.2%. Similarly, competitor Royal Caribbean raised its profit forecast, citing strong demand. Norwegian Cruise Line is experiencing strong demand across all market segments, both mass-market and luxury, with its CEO describing 2024 as its best year since resuming operations post-pandemic. Key metrics like pricing, occupancy, and onboard spending are performing well, with third-quarter pricing up 7% YoY. Despite occupancy being slightly below peak levels, the company prioritizes pricing over filling cabins entirely, maintaining stability expected through 2025. Advance bookings for 2025 are strong, supported by both early reservations and last-minute demand, enabling Norwegian to sustain high pricing. Onboard spending remains robust, with nearly all passengers pre-booking amenities. Additionally, the company is expanding its Caribbean offerings, set to double its capacity at Great Stirrup Cay by 2026, which appeals to younger travellers. Since the change in CEO in 2023, the company shifted focus to margin improvement and debt reduction, aiming for a 39% adjusted EBITDA margin and lower leverage by 2026. It expects modest passenger capacity growth of 4% to 6% annually through 2028, balancing profitability with sustainability. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $22 to $32. Positive Outlook.
  

挪威邮轮 (NCLH)

• 24财年第三季营收：28.1亿美元，同比增幅10.6%，超预期4,000万美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.99美元，超预期0.05美元
  
• 24财年指引：预计净收益率将从之前的8.2%增长到9.4%左右，这主要是受所有三个品牌和航线强劲需求的推动。调整后的EBITDA将从先前的指导增加7,500万美元，从23.50亿美元增加到约24.25亿美元，因为第三季度的业绩好于预期，第四季度的指导也有所增加。预计调整后的营业EBITDA利润率将从之前的34.5%增加到35.3%，调整后的净收入指导从之前的7.9亿美元增加到约8.55亿美元，调整后的每股收益指导从1.53美元增加到约8%至1.65美元，而之前的预期为1.58美元。净杠杆率预计将在今年年底达到5.4倍，与2023年相比减少了近两倍。
  
• 短评：挪威邮轮今年第四次上调年度利润预期，原因是第三季度收入达到创纪录的28.1亿美元，利润达到4.75亿美元，预售票收入达到创纪录的33亿美元。该公司目前预计2024年调整后每股利润为1.65美元，高于此前预测的1.53美元。该公司首席执行官将这一增长归功于强劲的需求，预计2024年将是收入创纪录的一年。挪威邮轮也将其2024年每邮轮日收入增长预测从8.2%上调至9.4%。同样，竞争对手皇家加勒比航空公司也上调了利润预期，理由是需求强劲。挪威邮轮公司在所有细分市场都经历了强劲的需求，无论是大众市场还是豪华市场，其首席执行官将2024年描述为自疫情后恢复运营以来最好的一年。价格、入住率和机上消费等关键指标表现良好，第三季度价格同比增长7%。尽管入住率略低于峰值水平，但该公司优先考虑定价，而不是完全填补客舱，预计到2025年将保持稳定。由于提前预订和最后一刻的需求，2025年的预订量很强劲，使挪威航空能够维持高价格。机上消费依然强劲，几乎所有乘客都提前预订了便利设施。此外，该公司正在扩大加勒比海地区的服务，到2026年，大马镫岛的接待能力将增加一倍，这对年轻游客很有吸引力。自2023年更换首席执行官以来，公司将重点转向提高利润率和减少债务，目标是到2026年调整后EBITDA利润率达到39%，并降低杠杆率。该公司预计，到2028年，客运量每年将适度增长4%至6%，以平衡盈利能力和可持续性。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：22至32美元。积极前景。
  

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $158.88B, +11.0% YoY, beat estimates by $1.6B
  
• 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $1.43, beat estimates by $0.29
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect net sales to be between $181.5B and $188.5B vs consensus of $186.26B and an unfavourable impact of approximately 10 basis points from forging exchange rates. Operating income is expected to be between $16.0B and $20.0B.
  
• Comment: Amazon delivered strong Q3 results, showcasing growth across e-commerce, cloud, and advertising. The company reported earnings of US$1.43 per share, surpassing the US$1.14 forecast. Total revenue rose 11% to US$158.9bn, surpassing estimates, with an operating profit of US$17.4bn, far above the US$14.7bn forecasted. Amazon Web Services (AWS) saw a 19% revenue increase to US$27.5bn, meeting estimates, though this growth was slower compared to Microsoft Azure’s 33% and Google Cloud’s 35% gains for the same quarter. While online store sales grew 7% to US$61.4bn, and advertising revenue surged 19% to US$14.3bn. Its CEO’s cost-cutting and logistics streamlining efforts have supported investments in AI infrastructure, with US$75bn in capital expenditures planned for 2024. Amazon anticipates continued strong growth in the holiday quarter, projecting operating income of US$18bn and sales reaching up to US$188.5bn. Amazon exceeded market expectations for quarterly revenue, driven by robust growth in its cloud unit, AWS, fuelled by increased enterprise spending on AI. Looking ahead, we anticipate Amazon to maintain its momentum across core segments, particularly in cloud services, where ongoing demand for AI-driven solutions should support AWS’s growth trajectory. Furthermore, with the holiday season approaching, Amazon’s strong forecast for operating income and projected sales reflects confidence in its ability to capture increased consumer spending. Continued strength in advertising and e-commerce, provides Amazon with a solid foundation for sustained growth. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $185 to $210. Positive Outlook.
  

亚马逊 (AMZN)

• 24财年第三季营收：1,588.8亿美元，同比增幅11.0%，超预期16美元
  
• 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：1.43美元，超预期0.29美元
  
• 24财年第四季指引：预计净销售额将在1,815亿美元至1,885亿美元之间，而市场预期为1,862.6亿美元，并受到汇率波动约10个基点的不利影响。营业收入预计在160亿美元至200亿美元之间。
  
• 短评：亚马逊公布了强劲的第三季度业绩，展示了电子商务、云计算和广告业务的增长。该公司报告每股收益为1.43美元，超过了1.14美元的预期。总收入增长11%，达到1589亿美元，超过预期，营业利润为174亿美元，远高于预期的147亿美元。亚马逊网络服务（AWS）的收入增长了19%，达到275亿美元，符合预期，不过与微软Azure的33%和谷歌云的35%相比，这一增长速度要慢一些。在线商店销售额增长了7%，达到614亿美元，广告收入增长了19%，达到143亿美元。其首席执行官的成本削减和物流精简努力支持了对人工智能基础设施的投资，计划在2024年投入750亿美元的资本支出。亚马逊预计，假日季将继续保持强劲增长，预计营业收入将达到180亿美元，销售额将达到1885亿美元。亚马逊的季度收入超出了市场预期，这得益于其云计算部门AWS的强劲增长，而企业在人工智能方面的支出增加也推动了这一增长。展望未来，我们预计亚马逊将在核心领域保持增长势头，特别是在云服务领域，对人工智能驱动解决方案的持续需求将支持AWS的增长轨迹。此外，随着假日购物季的临近，亚马逊对营业收入和销售的强劲预测反映出其对抓住消费者支出增长能力的信心。在广告和电子商务方面的持续实力，为亚马逊的持续增长提供了坚实的基础。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：185至210美元。积极前景。
  

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $94.93B, +6.1% YoY, beat estimates by $510M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.64, beat estimates by $0.04
  
• Dividend: Apple’s board of directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.25 per share of the company’s common stock, payable on 14 November 2024.
  
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expect sales growth of low to mid-single digit, vs consensus growth of 6.65%, amounting to US127.53bn and signalled that it expects services growth to be about the same as its growth rate for the past year, which was 12.87%.
  
• Comment: Apple exceeded Wall Street’s expectations for Q4 revenue and earnings, fuelled by the successful launch of the AI-enhanced iPhone 16, which saw initial sales surpass those of the iPhone 15. Revenue reached US$94.93bn, slightly above the forecast of US$94.58bn, with iPhone sales growing 5.5% YoY to US$46.22bn. However, softer-than-expected sales in China and a modest revenue outlook have raised some concerns about holiday season performance. While Apple’s capital expenditures rose to US$9.45bn, lower AI spending reflects its reliance on third-party data centres. Revenue from the services segment came in slightly under expectations at US$24.97bn, and Mac, iPad, and wearables sales also fell short. Adjusted earnings per share, excluding a one-time European tax charge, stood at US$1.64. Looking forward, Apple forecasts low to mid-single-digit revenue growth for the upcoming quarter, with expected double-digit growth in services, though hardware performance remains uncertain. The company’s AI strategy, centered on “Apple Intelligence” integration within iOS, has boosted user adoption rates and leverages in-house chips for enhanced privacy and security. Apple returned US$29bn to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends in the quarter. Apple’s strong Q4 performance underscores the strategic success of its AI-driven product enhancements and expanding ecosystem. Despite challenges in China and mixed performance in other segments, the company’s strength in driving iPhone sales and growing services provides a solid foundation for sustained growth. With a cautious outlook, Apple remains committed to innovation and targeted investments, positioning itself to navigate competitive pressures and capture long-term growth opportunities across key markets. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $220 to $240. Neutral Outlook.
  

苹果 (AAPL)

• 24财年第四季营收：949.3亿美元，同比增幅6.1%，超预期5.1亿美元
  
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.64美元，超预期0.04美元
  
• 股息：苹果董事会已宣布每股0.25美元的公司普通股现金股息，于2024年11月14日支付。
  
• 25财年第一季指引：预计销售额增长为低至中等个位数，而市场预期为6.65%，达到1,275.3亿美元，并表示预计服务业增长将与去年的增长率（12.87%）大致相同。
  
• 短评：苹果第四季度的营收和盈利超出了华尔街的预期，这主要得益于搭载人工智能功能的iPhone 16的成功推出，其首发销量超过了iPhone 15。营收达到949.3亿美元，略高于945.8亿美元的预期，iPhone销售额同比增长5.5%，达到462.2亿美元。然而，中国市场低于预期的销售和温和的收入前景，引发了人们对假日季业绩的一些担忧。虽然苹果的资本支出上升至94.5亿美元，但人工智能支出的下降反映了其对第三方数据中心的依赖。服务部门的收入略低于预期，为249.7亿美元，Mac、iPad和可穿戴设备的销售也低于预期。调整后每股收益（不包括一次性欧洲税费）为1.64美元。展望未来，苹果预计下一季度营收将以个位数至中位数的速度增长，预计服务营收将以两位数增长，但硬件表现仍不确定。该公司的人工智能战略以“苹果智能”与iOS的整合为中心，提高了用户的采用率，并利用内部芯片增强了隐私和安全性。苹果本季度通过股票回购和分红向股东返还了290亿美元。苹果第四季度的强劲表现凸显了其人工智能驱动的产品增强和扩大生态系统的战略成功。尽管在中国面临挑战，在其他领域的表现参差不齐，但该公司在推动iPhone销售和不断增长的服务方面的优势，为持续增长提供了坚实的基础。尽管前景谨慎，但苹果仍将致力于创新和有针对性的投资，定位自己以应对竞争压力，并在关键市场抓住长期增长机会。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：220至240美元。中性前景。
  

Intel Corp. (INTC)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $13.28B, -6.2% YoY, beat estimates by $240M
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: -$0.46, miss estimates by $0.43
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect 4Q24 revenue to be in the range of $13.3B to $14.3B, gross margin of 36.5% and tax rate of -50%. GAAP earnings per share of -$0.24 and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.12, vs EPS and revenue consensus of $0.07 and $13.72B respectively.
  
• Comment: Intel surpassed third-quarter revenue expectations, despite reporting a significant net loss of US$16.6bn due to impairment and restructuring charges. The company benefited from a renewed demand for PC chips, aided by on-device AI features and a Windows update cycle. Its non-GAAP earnings per share missed estimates. The company forecasts revenue between US$13.3bn and US$14.3bn, with projected earnings of US$0.12 per share, exceeding Wall Street’s expected US$0.06. Its CEO is leading an ambitious turnaround to restore Intel’s dominance in the semiconductor industry, focusing on cost-cutting, including job cuts and suspended dividends, as well as developing a new factory network. However, Intel faces intense competition in the AI chip market, where rivals Nvidia and AMD have gained ground. Intel’s AI accelerator, Gaudi, underperformed expectations, contributing to concerns about Intel’s positioning in the AI sector. Intel’s data centre and AI unit saw a 9% sales increase to US$3.3bn, while PC chip revenue was US$7.3bn, slightly below estimates. The company’s foundry unit, which produces chips for other companies, reported an 8% sales decline to US$4.4bn. Intel’s gross margin fell to 15%, a stark contrast from its former high margins above 60%. Despite current challenges, its CEO remains committed to keeping Intel unified, with plans to seek external investments in undervalued business units like Altera. Intel’s restructuring and investments in manufacturing is anticipated to restore its market position, with plans to invest between US$12bn to US$14bn in capital spending in 2025, although its revenue remains significantly below its 2021 peak. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $19 to $25. Neutral Outlook.
  

英特尔 (INTC)

• 24财年第三季营收：132.8亿美元，同比跌幅6.2%，超预期2.4亿美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.46美元，逊预期0.43美元
  
• 24财年第四季指引：预计第四季度营收将在133亿美元至143亿美元之间，毛利率为36.5%，税率为-50%。GAAP每股亏损为0.24美元，Non-GAAP每股收益为0.12美元，每股收益和收入预期分别为0.07美元和137.2亿美元。
  
• 短评：尽管由于减值和重组费用，英特尔第三季度净亏损166亿美元，但营收超出预期。该公司受益于个人电脑芯片需求的复苏，以及设备上的人工智能功能和Windows更新周期。其非公认会计准则每股收益低于预期。该公司预计营收在133亿至143亿美元之间，每股盈利0.12美元，超过华尔街预期的0.06美元。这位首席执行官正在领导一项雄心勃勃的转型计划，以恢复英特尔在半导体行业的主导地位，重点是削减成本，包括裁员和暂停派息，以及开发新的工厂网络。然而，英特尔在人工智能芯片市场面临激烈竞争，竞争对手英伟达（Nvidia）和AMD在该市场占据了一席之地。英特尔的人工智能加速器高迪（Gaudi）表现逊于预期，引发了人们对英特尔在人工智能领域定位的担忧。英特尔的数据中心和人工智能部门的销售额增长了9%，达到33亿美元，而个人电脑芯片收入为73亿美元，略低于预期。该公司为其他公司生产芯片的代工部门报告称，销售额下降8%，至44亿美元。英特尔的毛利率降至15%，与之前60%以上的高利率形成鲜明对比。尽管面临当前的挑战，这位首席执行官仍然致力于保持英特尔的统一，并计划在被低估的业务部门（如Altera）寻求外部投资。英特尔在制造业的重组和投资预计将恢复其市场地位，计划在2025年投资120亿至140亿美元的资本支出，尽管其收入仍远低于2021年的峰值。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：19至25美元。中性前景。