4Q24 Revenue: $30.92B, -3.1% YoY, beat estimates by $90M
4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.41 beat estimates by $0.16
1Q25 Guidance: Expect to see meaningful year-over-year profit pressure in its first quarter relative to the remainder of the year, analysts were expecting profit to grow 0.9%.
FY25 Guidance: Expect EPS to be between $8.80 and $9.80, which at the midpoint is more or less in line with estimates of $9.31. However, it’s expecting sales to grow just 1%, behind consensus estimates of 2.6%.
Comment: Target delivered fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of US$2.41 EPS and revenue of US$30.92bn, above Wall Street expectations of US$2.26 and US$30.82bn respectively. The company reported a YoY decline in net income to US$1.10bn from US$1.38bn and sales of US$30.92bn from US$31.92bn, partly due to an extra week in the previous year’s quarter. The company issued cautious Q1 guidance, citing weak February sales, consumer uncertainty, and potential tariff impacts on fresh produce imported from Mexico. Gross margin declined amid higher markdowns. Target is focusing on trendy, affordable merchandise and brand partnerships with Champion and Warby Parker to regain momentum, though these initiatives will fully roll out in late 2025. For the current fiscal year, Target expects EPS between US$8.80 and US$9.80, aligning with estimates, but projects only 1% sales growth, below the expected 2.6%. Target faces near-term profit pressures due to weak consumer spending and external challenges but is banking on seasonal trends, new merchandise, and partnerships to drive long-term growth and competitiveness. 1Q25recommended trading range: $110 to $130. Neutral Outlook.
4Q25 Revenue: $13.95B, -4.7% YoY, beat estimates by $250M
4Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.58 beat estimates by $0.17
FY26 Guidance: Expects $41.4B – $ 42.2B revenue with 4.2% – 4.4% operating income rate and comparable sales growth of 0% to 2% YoY.
Comment: Best Buy exceeded Q4 earnings and revenue expectations but warned that Trump’s tariffs on Chinese and Mexican imports could raise prices and impact sales. Shares fell 13% as investors reacted to economic uncertainty. Revenue declined 4.7% YoY to US$13.95bn, and net income declining due to a goodwill impairment charge. For FY26, Best Buy expects revenue to be between US$41.4bn to US$42.2bn and flat to 2% sales growth, focusing on premium products and a new third-party marketplace. While computing and mobile sales were strong, appliances struggled. Best Buy sources 55% of its products from China and 20% from Mexico, and while it directly imports only 2-3% of its products, we expect vendors to pass tariff costs onto retailers, leading to higher prices for consumers. Consumers are expected to remain value-focused and selective about big-ticket purchases but willing to spend on innovative, high-price-point products. While Best Buy delivered solid quarterly results, tariff-related price increases and economic uncertainty pose challenges for the year ahead. The company will continue to focus on innovation, third-party marketplace expansion, and cost management to navigate these headwinds. 1Q26recommended trading range: $70 to $90. Neutral Outlook.
4Q24 Revenue: $4.95B, +36.7% YoY, beat estimates by $320M
4Q24 GAAP EPS: $0.39, miss estimates by $0.05
FY25 Guidance: Expects 20% GMV growth for Shopee and Garena projected to maintain double-digit growth in both user base and bookings.
Comment: Sea Ltd exceeded Q4 revenue expectations, driven by strong growth in its Shopee e-commerce platform and digital financial services. The company’s revenue rose 36.9% to $4.95 billion, beating forecasts. Shopee’s revenue climbed 41.3%, driven by increased consumer spending and solidifying its market dominance in Indonesia. A strategic partnership with YouTube in Indonesia further bolstered its e-commerce expansion. In FY24, Shopee surpassed US$100bn in GMV alongside over 10 billion orders. The digital finance unit, SeaMoney, saw revenue rise 55.2%, outperforming analyst estimates. Garena’s Free Fire bookings grew 34% YoY, becoming the world’s largest mobile game by average daily active users (DAU) in 2024, growing 28% YoY. Sea expects its gaming business, Garena, to grow in double digits this year and a 20% GMV growth for Shopee. While volatile global macroeconomic conditions pose potential risks to Sea Ltd.’s e-commerce segment, the company’s strong performance in the previous quarter supports a positive overall outlook. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $127 to $140. Positive Outlook.
FY25 Guidance: Expects revenue of CHF 2.94 billion, slightly below the consensus of CHF 2.96 billion and a constant currency net sales growth rate of at least 27%. Adjusted EBITDA margin of 17% to 17.5%, in line with the 17.5% estimate.
FY26 Guidance: Aims to progress toward its ambitious mid-term target of achieving an adjusted EBITDA margin of over 18% in 2026.
Comment: On Holding exceeded Q4 expectations with a 35.7% sales increase to CHF606.6mn, driven by strong DTC growth. Profit surged to CHF0.33 per share from a prior loss, beating estimates. On Holding delivered a strong performance in 2024, with Q4 net income reaching CHF89.5mn, reversing a loss from the previous year, and full-year net sales growing 29.4% to CHF2.3bn. Footwear remained the core driver, but apparel and accessories saw significant growth of 77.5% and 80.0%, with apparel sales surpassing CHF100mn for the first time. Direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels, now nearly half of total sales, rose 40.4%, while wholesale also expanded. Regional growth was robust, particularly in Asia-Pacific, where sales surged 117.5%. On’s strategic focus includes expanding its apparel line to 10% of total sales, opening 20-25 new stores in 2025, and leveraging brand ambassadors like Roger Federer, Zendaya and FKA Twigs to boost visibility. The company’s Super Bowl ad and innovative campaigns, such as Soft Wins, further elevated its global presence. On expects 2025 net sales to grow at least 27% to CHF2.94bn, driven by new product launches, premium customer experiences, and continued brand momentum, solidifying its position as a leading global sportswear brand. Looking ahead, as On Holdings continues to expand its geographical reach and apparel offerings, we expect the brand to sustain long-term global growth. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $48 to $55. Positive Outlook.
短评： On Holding公布的第四季度业绩超出预期，销售额增长35.7%至6.066亿瑞士法郎，得益于直接面向消费者（DTC）的强劲增长。每股利润从之前的亏损飙升至0.33瑞士法郎，超出预期。On Holding在2024年表现强劲，第四季度净利润达到8950万瑞士法郎，扭转了去年的亏损，全年净销售额增长29.4%至23亿瑞士法郎。鞋类仍然是核心驱动力，但服装和配饰的增长显著，分别增长77.5%和80.0%，服装销售额首次超过1亿瑞士法郎。直接面向消费者（DTC）渠道目前占总销售额的近一半，增长40.4%，批发也实现了扩张。区域增长强劲，尤其是在亚太地区，销售额飙升117.5%。On的战略重点包括将其服装系列扩展到占总销售额的10%，在2025年开设20-25家新店，并利用罗杰·费德勒、赞达亚和FKA Twigs等品牌大使来提高知名度。该公司的超级碗广告和“软胜利”等创新活动进一步提升了其全球影响力。On预计2025年净销售额将增长至少27%至29.4亿瑞士法郎，得益于新产品发布、优质客户体验和持续的品牌势头，巩固其作为全球领先运动服装品牌的地位。展望未来，随着On Holdings继续扩大其地域覆盖范围和服装产品，我们预计该品牌将保持长期全球增长。25年第一季度建议交易区间：48美元至55美元。积极展望。
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)
4Q25 Revenue: $1.06B, +25.4% YoY, beat estimates by $20M
4Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.03, beat estimates by $0.17
1Q26 Guidance: Expects revenue between $1.1B and $1.11B, the midpoint of which is slightly below analysts’ estimates of $1.11B
FY26 Guidance: Expects revenue to be between $4.74B and $4.81B, in line with estimates.
Comment: CrowdStrike reported strong Q4 revenue of US$1.06bn and EPS of US$1.03, surpassing Wall Street estimates. However, it issued a slightly weaker-than-expected Q1 forecast of between US$1.1bn to US$1.11bn due to cautious enterprise spending amid economic uncertainty. For FY26, it expects to deliver revenue of US$4.74bn to US$4.81bn in-line with analysts’ expectations but contrasts with stronger forecasts from rivals Palo Alto Networks and Fortinet. Despite budget constraints, businesses are expected to continue investing in CrowdStrike’s cybersecurity solutions to combat digital threats, which would ensure steady long-term demand. However, with uncertainty surrounding the macroeconomic environment, in the short-term businesses may decide to prioritise more critical security expenditures, which may lead to a slowdown in CrowdStrike’s sales in the current quarter. 1Q26 recommended trading range: $350 to $380. Neutral Outlook.
3Q25 Revenue: $135M, +154.2% YoY, beat estimates by $14.64M
3Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.25, beat estimates by $0.07
4Q25 Guidance: Expects revenue between $155 million and $165 million
FY26 Guidance: Expects over 50% revenue growth from FY25 to FY26, with operating expenses growing at half the rate of revenue
Comment: Credo reported record Q3 revenue of US$135mn, up 154% YoY, and EPS of US0.25 surpassing estimates, driven by strong AI-related demand from hyperscalers. The company’s gross margin reached 63.8%, reflecting efficiency gains. Its key growth areas include high-speed connectivity solutions, optical DSPs, and PCIe expansion. It has made progress in diversifying its customer base, with volume production for three hyperscalers and ongoing qualifications with two more. The company is expanding into the PCIe market, with its Gen 6 AECs and retimers expected to drive significant revenue opportunities in AI scale-up networks, starting production in 2026. Credo is diversifying its customer base and expects Q4 revenue of US$155mn to US$165mn, with FY26 revenue growth projected above 50%. Its focus on AI-driven networking, innovation, and operational performance positions it for continued expansion in the data center and connectivity markets. 4Q25 recommended trading range: $50 to $60. Positive Outlook.
4Q25 Revenue: $4.32B, -2.3% YoY, miss estimates by $10M
4Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.10, beat estimates by $0.17
FY26 Guidance: No guidance provided.
Dividend Distribution: Declared $0.19/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. Payable on 26 March; for shareholders of record 11 March.
Comment: Nordstrom reported strong holiday-quarter results, with net earnings up 23% to US$165mn and comparable sales rising 4.7%, beating estimates. Gross margin expanded due to lower shrink and improved merchandise margins. The company is preparing to go private in a US$6.25bn deal with the Nordstrom family and Mexican retailer Liverpool. Its CFO Cathy Smith will depart to join Starbucks. Nordstrom continues expanding its off-price Rack stores, with 21 new locations planned in 2025 after opening 23 in 2024. The company did not provide an annual forecast due to the pending buyout.
4Q24 Revenue: $5.91B, -1.8% YoY, miss estimates by $40M
4Q24 GAAP EPS: $1.79, beat estimates by $0.13
1Q25 Guidance: Expects comparable sales to be down 3%, compared with a 3% gain a year ago, including some impact on goods in transit when the initial tariffs were first announced.
FY25 Guidance: Expects comparable sales to be down 1% to up 2%, vs analyst estimates of a rise of 2.9% and annual earnings per share in the range of $5.95 to $6.55, compared with expectations of $6.69 per share.
Dividend Distribution: Declare $0.405/share quarterly dividend, 10.2% increase from prior dividend of $0.367, payable on 31 March; for shareholders of record 18 March.
Comment: Despite a 1.8% YoY decline in Q4 sales to US$5.91bn, earnings per share of US$1.79 surpassed estimates. Ross Stores projected lower-than-expected annual sales and profits, citing reduced consumer spending due to inflation, tariffs, and economic uncertainty. FY25 comparable sales are expected to range from -1% to +2%, below analyst expectations of 2.9%. First-quarter sales are forecasted to drop 3%. Like Walmart and Target, Ross anticipates continued spending pressure, particularly from lower-to-middle-income shoppers. The company’s CEO attributed weak customer traffic to economic and geopolitical factors. With the recent increase in tariff impositions, we anticipate increased consumer caution, impacting both top and bottom lines as consumers prioritize essential purchases. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $130 to $140. Neutral Outlook.
