KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 30 August 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Tesla Inc (TSLA US)

  • Shares closed above the 50dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA and touched the 50dEMA.
  • Both RSI and MACD are positive.
  • Long – Entry 247, Target 273, Stop 234

Meta Platforms Inc (META US)

  • Shares closed above the 20dEMA with constructive volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 50dEMA.
  • RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
  • Long – Entry 293, Target 317, Stop 281

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Singapore Technologies Engineering Ltd (STE SP)

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA.
  • RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
  • Long – Entry 3.85, Target 4.05 Stop 3.75

Thomson Medical Group Ltd (TMG SP)

  • Shares closed above the 50dEMA with a spike in volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dMEA. 
  • Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.058 Target 0.064, Stop 0.055

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Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988 HK)

  • Shares closed above the 200dEMA with rising volume. 
  • RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
  • Long – Entry 90.5, Target 96.5, Stop 87.5

Baidu Inc (9888 HK)

  • Shares tested the 50dEMA and closed slightly below it, above the 20dEMA. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  • RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  • Long – Entry 135.0, Target 144.0, Stop 139.5

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NIO Inc (NIO)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $1.21B, -14.8% YoY, miss estimates by $60M.
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPADS: -$0.45, miss estimates by $0.04.
  • 3Q23 Guidance: Deliveries of vehicles to be between 55,000 and 57,000 vehicles, representing an increase of approximately 74.0% to 80.3% from the same quarter of 2022. Total revenues to be between RMB18,898mn (US$2,606mn) and RMB19,520mn (US$2,692mn), representing an increase of approximately 45.3% to 50.1% from the same quarter of 2022.
  • Comment: NIO delivered 23,520 smart electric vehicles in 2Q23, a decrease of 14.8% YoY. However, the company expects the delivery volume in Q3 to recover to between 55,000 and 57,000 units. NIO is facing challenges from the overall economic slowdown and the chip shortage, but the company is confident in its long-term growth prospects. The company is continuing to invest in research and development, and expanding its sales and service network. Furthermore, its revamped vehicles have delivered better results, delivering 20,462 vehicles in July. Looking ahead, the economic slowdown in China will continue to impact its revenue, which may be partially offset by better sales due to the updated vehicle platform. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $9.5 to $11.5. Neutral Outlook. 

蔚来汽车 (NIO)

  • 23财年第二季营收：12.1亿美元, 同比跌幅14.8%，逊预期6,000万美元 
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.45美元，逊预期0.04美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：汽车交付量将在55,000至57,000辆之间，比2022年同期增长约74.0%至80.3%。总收入将在188.98亿元人民币（26.06亿美元）至195,02亿元人民币（26.92亿美元）之间，较2022年同期增长约45.3%至50.1%。
  • 短评：蔚来汽车在2013年第二季度交付了23520辆智能电动汽车，同比下降14.8%。然而，该公司预计第三季度的交付量将恢复到5.5万至5.7万辆之间。蔚来汽车正面临着整体经济放缓和芯片短缺的挑战，但该公司对其长期增长前景充满信心。公司不断加大研发投入，扩大销售和服务网络。此外，其改进型汽车也取得了更好的成绩，7月份交付了20,462辆汽车。展望未来，中国经济放缓将继续影响其收入，而更新的汽车平台带来的更好的销售可能会部分抵消这一影响。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：9.5美元至11.5美元。中性前景。

Best Buy Co Inc (BBY)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $9.58B,-7.3% YoY, beat estimates by $60M.
  • 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.22, beat estimates by $0.15.
  • FY24 Guidance: Revenue of $43.8B to $44.5B, which compares to prior guidance of $43.8B to $45.2B and consensus of $44.29B; Comparable sales decline of 4.5% to 6.0%, which compares to prior guidance of a decline of 3.0% to 6.0%; Enterprise non-GAAP operating income rate of 3.9% to 4.1%, which compares to prior guidance of 3.7% to 4.1%; Non-GAAP effective income tax rate of approximately 24.5%, which remains unchanged; Non-GAAP diluted EPS of $6.00 to $6.40, which compares to prior guidance of $5.70 to $6.50 and consensus of $6.10; Capital expenditures of approximately $850mn, which remains unchanged.
  • Comment: Best Buy beat quarterly sales and profit estimates, but lowered its annual revenue forecast due to concerns about rising inflation and a slowdown in consumer spending. Best Buy is offering higher discounts to attract customers and is expanding its membership program to offer exclusive deals and access to hard-to-find products. Best Buy is looking to new categories, such as health care, and launched a paid subscription program, My Best Buy, to keep driving growth. The retailer is also reevaluating its store footprint as online sales drive higher costs. The company is optimistic about the holiday shopping season, but it is unclear how much the ongoing economic challenges will impact consumers’ discretionary spending. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $70 to $80. Neutral Outlook. 

百思买 (BBY)

  • 24财年第二季营收：95.8亿美元, 同比跌幅7.3%，超预期6,000万美元 
  • 24财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：1.22美元，超预期0.15美元  
  • 24财年指引：营收438亿至445亿美元，此前预期为438亿至452亿美元，市场预期为442.9亿美元；可比销售额下降4.5%至6.0%，而此前的预期为下降3.0%至6.0%；Non-GAAP营业利润率为3.9%至4.1%，此前指引为3.7%至4.1%；Non-GAAP有效所得税税率约为24.5%，保持不变；Non-GAAP摊薄每股收益为6.00美元至6.40美元，此前的指引为5.70美元至6.50美元，市场预期为6.10美元；资本支出约为8.5亿美元，保持不变。
  • 短评：百思买季度销售和利润超出预期，但由于担心通胀上升和消费者支出放缓，下调了年度营收预期。百思买正在提供更高的折扣来吸引顾客，并正在扩大其会员计划，以提供独家交易和难以找到的产品。百思买正在寻找新的类别，如医疗保健，并推出了付费订阅计划，我的百思买，以保持增长。由于在线销售推高了成本，这家零售商也在重新评估其门店面积。该公司对假日购物季持乐观态度，但目前尚不清楚持续的经济挑战将在多大程度上影响消费者的可自由支配支出。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：70美元至80美元。中性前景。

PDD Holdings Inc (PDD)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $7.21B, +66% YoY, beat estimates by $1.18B.
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPADS: $1.44, beat estimates by $0.42.
  • 3Q23 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  • Comment: Pinduoduo beat Q2 revenue estimates, driven by strong demand from price-conscious customers in China and the rapid growth of its international shopping site, Temu. Temu has proven to be a stiff competitor to other shopping platforms such as Shein and Amazon in the United States. PDD is focusing on high-quality development, which includes high-quality consumption, high-quality supply, and high-quality ecosystem. To achieve its goals, PDD is working to provide more savings, offer better services, and enhance consumer protection. It is also working to co-develop and integrate the digital economy and the traditional industries and enhance its platform governance capability. Furthermore, PDD has also formed a Legal and Compliance Committee to address concerns about forced labor in China’s Xinjiang region. PDD’s results prove that it will continue to thrive despite the uncertainties faced in our current macroeconomic environment. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $93 to $100. Positive Outlook. 

拼多多 (PDD)

  • 23财年第二季营收：72.1亿美元, 同比增幅66.0%，超预期11.8亿美元 
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.44美元，超预期0.42美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：不提供指引。
  • 短评：受中国消费者对价格敏感的强劲需求以及其国际购物网站天猫的快速增长的推动，拼多多第二季度营收超出预期。事实证明，Temu是美国其他购物平台（如Shein和亚马逊）的强劲竞争对手。公司聚焦高质量发展，包括高质量消费、高质量供给、高质量生态。为了实现这些目标，公司正在努力提供更多的储蓄，提供更好的服务，并加强对消费者的保护。推动数字经济与传统产业协同发展融合，提升平台治理能力。此外，公司还成立了一个法律和合规委员会，以解决中国新疆地区强迫劳动的问题。公司的业绩证明，尽管当前的宏观经济环境面临不确定性，但它将继续蓬勃发展。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：12美元至16美元。中性前景。

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co (HPE)

  • 3Q23 Revenue: $7B, +0.7% YoY, in-line with estimates.
  • 3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.49, beat estimates by $0.02.
  • 4Q23 Guidance: Revenue to be in the range of $7.2bn to $7.5bn, FY23 revenue growth to be in the range of 4% to 6% in constant currency. 
  • Comment: Hewlett Packard Enterprise raised its annual profit outlook, confident that businesses are upgrading technology despite concerns about the economy. The company’s Q3 revenue was in line with analysts’ estimates, with sales in the Compute and Storage units declining and sales in the Intelligent Edge unit jumping 50%. HPE expects Q4 revenue to be below estimates, attributable to soft enterprise spending and increased competition from AI-focused rivals. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $16 to $18. Neutral Outlook. 

慧与 (HPE)

  • 23财年第三季营收：70亿美元, 同比增幅0.7%，符合预期
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.49美元，超预期0.02美元  
  • 23财年第四季指引：营收将在72亿美元至75亿美元之间；按固定汇率计算，23财年营收增长将在4%至6%之间。
  • 短评：公司上调了年度利润预期，相信尽管对经济感到担忧，企业仍在升级技术。该公司第三季度的收入与分析师的预期相符，计算和存储部门的销售额下降，而智能边缘部门的销售额增长了50%。惠普预计第四季度收入将低于预期，原因是企业支出疲软，以及来自专注于人工智能的竞争对手的竞争加剧。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：16美元至18美元。中性前景。

HP Inc (HPQ)

  • 3Q23 Revenue: $13.2B, -9.9% YoY, miss estimates by $200M.
  • 3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.86, in-line with estimates.
  • 4Q23 Guidance: HP estimates GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $0.65 to $0.77 and non-GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $0.85 to $0.97 vs. consensus of $0.95. Non-GAAP diluted net EPS estimates $0.20 per diluted share. FY23 Guidance: HP estimates GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $2.95 to $3.07 and non-GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $3.23 to $3.35 vs. consensus of $3.37. Non-GAAP diluted net EPS estimates $0.28 per diluted share. Anticipates generating free cash flow of approximately $3.0bn.
  • Comment: HP Inc lowered its annual profit and free cash flow forecast due to a slump in the personal computers and printing segments alongside sluggish demand in China. Inflation and uncertainty lingering in the economy led to lower demand for consumer electronics resulting in increased inventory across the supply chain. The company’s PC sales fell 11% YoY while printing revenue declined 7% YoY. Despite the external environment not recovering as quickly as anticipated, the company remains on track to deliver 40% of its three-year cost savings target by the end of FY23. Looking ahead, we expect a sluggish recovery for PC demand. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $27 to $31. Negative Outlook. 

惠普 (HPQ)

  • 23财年第三季营收：132亿美元, 同比跌幅9.9%，逊预期2亿美元。
  • 23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.86美元，符合预期  
  • 23财年第四季指引：公司预计GAAP摊薄后每股净收益在0.65美元至0.77美元之间，Non-GAAP摊薄后每股净收益在0.85美元至0.97美元之间，而市场预期为0.95美元。Non-GAAP摊薄净每股收益预估每股摊薄0.20美元。23财年指引：惠普预计GAAP摊薄后每股净收益在2.95美元至3.07美元之间，Non-GAAP摊薄后每股净收益在3.23美元至3.35美元之间，而市场预期为3.37美元。Non-GAAP摊薄净每股收益预估每股摊薄0.28美元。预计将产生约30亿美元的自由现金流。
  • 短评：惠普公司下调了其年度利润和自由现金流预测，原因是个人电脑和打印业务的下滑以及中国需求的低迷。经济中挥之不去的通胀和不确定性导致消费电子产品需求下降，导致整个供应链的库存增加。该公司的个人电脑销量同比下降11%，打印收入同比下降7%。尽管外部环境没有像预期的那样迅速恢复，但该公司仍有望在23财年末实现其三年成本节约目标的40%。展望未来，我们预计个人电脑需求将缓慢复苏。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：27美元至31美元。负面前景。

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