Technical Analysis – 28 June 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Samsara Inc. (IOT US)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with higher volume.
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is turning constructive.
• Long – Entry 30.6, Target 33.6, Stop 29.1

Datadog, Inc. (DDOG US)

• Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 122, Target 132, Stop 117

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Singapore Airlines Ltd. (SIA SP)

• Shares closed at a high since Feb 2024 with an increase in volume.
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 6.90, Target 7.20, Stop 6.75

Samudera Shipping Line Ltd. (SAMU SP)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume.
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 1.04, Target 1.14, Stop 0.99

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China Unicom (Hong Kong) Ltd (762 HK)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with constructive volume.
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 6.80, Target 7.60, Stop 6.40

China Telecom Corp (728 HK)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with increased volume.
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
• Long – Entry 4.60, Target 5.00, Stop 4.40

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Carnival Corp. (CCL)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $5.78B, +17.7% YoY, beat estimates by $90M
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.11, beat estimates by $0.13
• 3Q24 Guidance: Expect net yield to be up approximately 8% YoY; Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.66bn, up 20% YoY; Adjusted net income of approximately $1.58bn, up 35% YoY. FY24 Guidance: Expect net yield up approx. 10.25% compared to FY23, compared to a previous figure of 9.5%; Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $5.83bn, up nearly 40% YoY, and compared to previous guidance of $5.63bn; Adjusted net income of approximately $1.55bn, compared to previous guidance of $1.28bn; adjusted ROIC approximately 10%.
• Comment: Carnival Corp reported robust results and raised its FY24 guidance, driven by higher ticket prices, increased occupancy, and greater onboard spending. The company has also focused on reducing costs and lowering debts over the quarter. These efforts enabled Carnival to achieve profitability, surpassing market expectations of a quarterly loss. Additionally, the company noted a strong demand for cruises, with consumers seeking affordable “revenge travel” options. Carnival also reported that its advance bookings for FY25 are already higher than for 2024 in terms of both price and occupancy. This surge in advance bookings and firmer pricing for upcoming quarters indicate that the cruise industry’s recovery is accelerating beyond expectations. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $16 to $22. Positive Outlook.

嘉年华邮轮 (CCL)

• 24财年第二季营收：57.8亿美元，同比增幅17.7%，超预期9,000万美元
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.11美元，超预期0.13美元
• 24财年第三季指引：预计净收益率将同比增长约8%；调整后EBITDA约26.6亿美元，同比增长20%；调整后净利润约15.8亿美元，同比增长35%。24财年指引：预计净收益率约上升。与23财年相比增长10.25%，而之前的数字为9.5%；调整后EBITDA约58.3亿美元，同比增长近40%，而此前的指引为56.3亿美元；调整后净利润约15.5亿美元，而此前的指引为12.8亿美元；调整后ROIC约10%。
• 短评：受票价上涨、入住率上升和船上消费增加的推动，嘉年华公司公布了强劲的业绩，并上调了24财年的预期。该公司在本季度还专注于降低成本和债务。这些努力使嘉年华实现了盈利，超过了市场预期的季度亏损。此外，该公司注意到对游轮的强劲需求，消费者寻求负担得起的“报复性旅行”选择。嘉年华还报告称，在价格和入住率方面，其25财年的预订量已经高于2024财年。预订量的激增和即将到来的季度更稳定的价格表明，邮轮行业的复苏正在加速，超出预期。24年第三季度建议交易区间：16至22美元。积极前景。

FedEx Corp. (FDX)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $22.1B, +0.9% YoY, beat estimates by $30M
• 4Q24 EPS: $5.41, beat estimates by $0.04
• FY25 Guidance: Expect revenue to grow at a low to mid-single-digit rate and EPS of $20 to $22 vs consensus of $20.75. It will also conduct an assessment of FedEx freight in value-creation plans.
• Share buyback: Expect to repurchase $2.5bn of common stock, including $1bn in the first fiscal quarter.
• Comment: In the fiscal fourth quarter of 2024, FedEx reported revenue and earnings beat alongside a decline in capital spending. Despite challenges in its Express overnight delivery unit, FedEx reported a 7.2%YoY growth in earnings to US$1.34bn for the fourth quarter, with revenue slightly exceeding estimates at US$22.1bn amid persisting weak demand for package deliveries. The company announced its decision to terminate its unprofitable US Postal Service contract, which represented only US$1.75bn of FY24 revenue, on 29 September. Despite the lackluster macroeconomic environment, FedEx expects FY25 profits to reach US$20 to US$22 per share, surpassing analysts’ expectations of US$20.75, with revenue expected to grow in the low-to-mid single digits. The company also plans to potentially sell its US$2.3bn freight trucking business. Looking forward, FedEx’s cost-cutting measures and operational consolidation, such as downsizing its air fleet by retiring 22 Boeing 757-200 freighter aircraft, will continue to bolster the declining volumes of its deliveries. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $285 to $310. Positive Outlook.

联邦快递 (FDX)

• 24财年第四季营收：221亿美元，同比增幅0.9%，超预期3,000万美元
• 24财年第四季每股盈利：5.41美元，超预期0.04美元
• 25财年指引：预计营收将以低至中位数的速度增长，每股收益为20至22美元，而市场预期为20.75美元。改善还将在价值创造计划中对联邦快递货运进行评估。
• 股票回购：预计将回购25亿美元普通股，其中第一财季将回购10亿美元
• 短评：在2024财年第四季度，联邦快递公布的收入和收益超过预期，同时资本支出有所下降。尽管快递隔夜递送业务面临挑战，但联邦快递第四季度的盈利同比增长7.2%，达到13.4亿美元，由于包裹递送需求持续疲软，收入略高于预期，达到221亿美元。9月29日，该公司宣布决定终止其不盈利的美国邮政服务合同，该合同仅占24财年收入的17.5亿美元。尽管宏观经济环境低迷，联邦快递预计25财年每股利润将达到20至22美元，超过分析师预期的20.75美元，收入预计将以中位数的速度增长。该公司还计划出售其价值23亿美元的货运业务。展望未来，联邦快递的成本削减措施和运营整合，例如通过淘汰22架波音757-200货机来缩小其机队规模，将继续支撑其不断下降的交付量。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：285美元至310美元。积极前景。

Micron Technology Inc. (MU)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $6.81B, +81.6% YoY, beat estimates by $140M
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.62, beat estimates by $0.09
• 3Q24 Dividend: Micron declares a $0.115/share quarterly dividend, in line with the previous; Forward yield 0.32%; Payable July 23; for shareholders of record July 8; ex-div July 8.
• Non-GAAP 4Q24 Outlook: Expect revenue of $7.60bn (+- $200mn) vs consensus of $7.58; Expects gross margin of 34.5% (+-1.0%); Expects EPS of $1.08 (+-$0.08) vs consensus of $1.04.
• Comment: Micron reported strong results, driven by robust AI demand and effective execution, leading to revenue growth. The company is increasing its market share in high-margin products like High Bandwidth Memory and achieved record revenue for its data centre SSD, underscoring its strength in the AI product portfolio. Micron also noted that PC unit volumes are expected to grow in the low single digits in FY2024, with smartphone units anticipated to increase in the low to mid-single digits. Micron’s outlook aligns with market expectations, and the company is well-positioned to achieve significant revenue records in FY25. The accelerating demand for memory-intensive AI servers, along with AI-capable PCs and smartphones requiring more memory than their current counterparts, will further boost its performance in the coming quarters. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $125 to $150. Positive Outlook.

美光科技 (MU)

• 24财年第三季营收：68.1亿美元，同比增幅81.6%，超预期1.4亿美元
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.62美元，超预期0.09美元
• 24财年第三季股息：美光宣布每股0.115美元的季度股息，与之前一致；远期股息率为0.32%；7月23日为付息日；7月8日为股东登记日；7月8日为除息日。
• Non-GAAP 24财年第四季度展望：预计营收为76亿美元(正负2亿美元浮动)，而市场预期为7.58美元；预计毛利率为34.5% (正负1.0%浮动)；预期每股收益为1.08美元(正负0.08美元浮动)，市场预期为1.04美元。
• 短评：在强劲的人工智能需求和有效执行的推动下，美光公布了强劲的业绩，导致收入增长。该公司正在提高其在高带宽内存等高利润产品中的市场份额，并在其数据中心固态硬盘上实现了创纪录的收入，突显了其在人工智能产品组合中的实力。美光还指出，预计PC销量在2024财年将以低个位数增长，智能手机销量预计将以低至中个位数增长。美光的前景与市场预期一致，该公司有望在25财年实现可观的收入记录。对内存密集型人工智能服务器的需求不断增加，加上支持人工智能的个人电脑和智能手机需要比目前的同类产品更多的内存，将进一步提升其在未来几个季度的表现。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：125美元至150美元。积极前景。

General Mills. (GIS)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $4.71B, -6.4% YoY, miss estimates by $150M
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.01, beat estimates by $0.02
• FY25 Guidance: Expect organic net sales to range between flat and up 1%, adjusted EPS to be between down 1% and up 1% in constant currency and free cash flow conversion expected to be at least 95% of adjusted after-tax earnings. Expect adjusted operating profit to range between down 2% and flat in constant currency from base of $3.6bn reported in FY24.
• Comment: In the fourth quarter, General Mills reported adjusted earnings slightly above expectations however, its quarterly sales were lower than expected. The company also forecasted annual profit below estimates due to decreased demand for snack bars and pet food, as well as higher input costs. The North American retail segment experienced a 7% decline in net sales, driven by a significant drop in volumes. The company has been affected by higher input costs of raw materials and labour, as well as supply chain disruptions. General Mills is facing challenges from consumers shifting to lower-priced private labels and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, which is impacting consumer behaviour and causing lower volume, as well as retailers reducing inventory. The company anticipates that its annual dollar value growth will fall below its long-term projections, and full-year profit growth will be modest. For FY25, General Mills expects profit to be between down 1% and up 1% compared to the consensus of a 3.7% rise. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $60 to $70. Neutral Outlook.

通用磨坊 (GIS)

• 24财年第四季营收：47.1亿美元，同比跌幅6.4%，超预期1.5亿美元
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.01美元，超预期0.02美元
• 25财年展望：预计有机净销售额将在持平至上升1%之间，调整后每股收益将在下降1%至上升1%之间(按固定汇率计算)，自由现金流转换预计将至少达到调整后税后收益的95%。预计调整后的营业利润将从24财年报告的36亿美元基数下降2%至持平区间。
• 短评：第四季度通用磨坊公布的调整后收益略高于预期，但其季度销售额低于预期。该公司还预测，由于小吃店和宠物食品的需求减少，以及投入成本上升，年度利润低于预期。受销量大幅下降的影响，北美零售部门的净销售额下降了7%。该公司受到原材料和劳动力投入成本上升以及供应链中断的影响。通用磨坊面临的挑战包括：消费者转向价格较低的自有品牌;持续的宏观经济不确定性正在影响消费者行为，导致销量下降;以及零售商减少库存。该公司预计其年度美元价值增长将低于其长期预期，全年利润增长将温和。通用磨坊预计，该公司25财年利润将在下降1%至上升1%之间，而市场普遍预期为增长3.7%。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：60美元至70美元。中性前景。