4Q24 Revenue: $4.04B, +31.2% YoY, beat estimates by $130M
4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.38, beat estimates by $0.16
FY25 Guidance: Reaffirmed FY2025 guidance for ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA in the range of $5.5bn to $6.1bn. It expects adjusted free cash flow before growth of between $3.0bn and $3.6bn.
Comment: Vistra Corp. delivered stronger-than-expected results, driven by rising demand for its nuclear power. The broader utilities sector has seen electricity consumption surge as Big Tech invests heavily in AI technologies and the infrastructure supporting them. AI data centers, along with increased energy needs from advanced manufacturing and industrial electrification—particularly in transportation—have pushed U.S. power demand to record highs in 2024, with further growth expected this year. As a key nuclear power operator, Vistra has been a major beneficiary of this trend, and management remains optimistic about sustained demand growth. The company also highlighted rapid electricity consumption increases across regional power markets PJM and ERCOT, noting that energy usage is outpacing peak load growth. However, uncertainty over the longevity of the AI-driven power boom has tempered market sentiment. Last week, major tech firms like Microsoft canceled some U.S. data center leases, signaling potentially softer-than-expected demand. 1Q25recommended trading range: $110 to $150. Neutral Outlook.
4Q24 Revenue: $2.1B, +5.5% YoY, in-line with estimates
4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.26 beat estimates by $0.15
1Q25 Guidance: Expects occupancy rate to be 101.5%, below consensus of 104.2%; expects adjusted EBITDA to be $435.0mn, below consensus of $449.5mn; expects adjusted EPS to be $0.08, below consensus of $0.09.
FY25 Guidance: Expects occupancy rate to be 103.4%, below consensus of 105.4%; expects adjusted EPS to be $2.05, below consensus of $2.09; expects adjusted EBITDA to be $2.72bn, below consensus of $2.75bn; expects revenue to be over $10.0bn, vs consensus of $10.2bn.
Comment: Norwegian Cruise Line reported stronger-than-expected results, fueled by steady demand from leisure travelers and higher ticket prices. U.S. cruise operators, including Norwegian, Carnival Corp, and Royal Caribbean, have seen a post-pandemic surge in demand for sea-based vacations, allowing them to raise itinerary prices. Management highlighted strong booking trends across itineraries and brands through 2025 and into 2026, with particularly high demand for summer sailings in Europe and Alaska. The industry has also benefited from a rise in onboard spending, as customers increasingly pre-book services such as drink packages, specialty dining, spa treatments, and shore excursions. Norwegian posted a 7.2% increase in onboard and other revenue for the quarter and noted that it is fully booked for the next 12 months. However, the company provided a cautious outlook, warning of a 3% decline in passenger volume for 2025 alongside higher costs related to fleet expansion and dry dock maintenance. This year, Norwegian plans to reposition two ships—Norwegian Breakaway and Norwegian Bliss—from the Caribbean to Europe for dry docking, leading to a 71% increase in repositioning capacity days. As a result, the company expects a lower load factor compared to typical Caribbean deployments, which could weigh on near-term profitability. 1Q25recommended trading range: $21 to $26. Neutral Outlook.
4Q24 Revenue: $34.54M, +101.4% YoY, beat estimates by $0.84M
4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: -$0.05, beat estimates by $0.03
FY25 Guidance: Expects to do $157mn to $177mn in revenue, compared to previous guidance range of$155mn to $175mn, and vs consensus of $165.3mn.
Comment: SoundHound AI delivered better-than-expected results and raised its full-year revenue outlook, citing strong demand for its voice-based AI solutions. The company is gaining traction in the quick-service restaurant sector, recently expanding through deals with Burger King UK and Peet’s Coffee. It also noted accelerating adoption of its AI-powered customer service solutions, solidifying its position as the leading provider in the industry, with deployments across dozens of major brands and more than 10,000 locations. Looking ahead, SoundHound remains focused on advancing its voice-technology software. In January, it introduced an in-vehicle voice commerce platform at the CES conference in Las Vegas, enabling users to order food directly from their cars through conversational AI. As more businesses integrate AI into their operations, SoundHound is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for its solutions. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $8.5 to $13.0. Positive Outlook.
短评：SoundHound AI 发布的业绩超出预期，并提高了全年营收展望，原因是其基于语音的人工智能解决方案需求强劲。该公司在快餐服务领域获得了越来越多的关注，最近通过与英国汉堡王和皮特咖啡的合作扩大了业务。该公司还指出，其人工智能驱动的客户服务解决方案的采用正在加速，巩固了其作为行业领先供应商的地位，其解决方案已部署在数十个主要品牌和超过10000个地点。展望未来，SoundHound 仍专注于推进其语音技术软件。1月份，该公司在拉斯维加斯举行的消费电子展（CES）上推出了车载语音商务平台，使用户能够通过对话式人工智能直接从车内订购食物。随着越来越多的企业将人工智能融入其运营，SoundHound 有望从对其解决方案日益增长的需求中获益。25财年第一季建议交易区间：8.5美元至13.0美元。积极前景。
Dell Technologies Inc (DELL)
4Q25 Revenue: $23.93B, +7.2% YoY, miss estimates by $640M
4Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.68, beat estimates by $0.16
4Q25 Dividend: Dell Technologies declared $0.525/share quarterly dividend, 18% share increase from prior dividend of $0.445; forward yield 1.95%; payable May 2; for shareholders of record April 22; ex-div April 22.
1Q26 Guidance: Expects revenue to be between $22.5bn and $23.5bn, below consensus of $23.59bn; expects adjusted EPS to be $1.65, below consensus of $1.76.
FY26 Guidance: Expect revenue to be between $101bn and $105bn, in-line with consensus of $103.17bn; expects EPS to be $9.30, above consensus of $9.23.
Comment: Dell reported weaker-than-expected revenue but delivered stronger-than-anticipated earnings, benefiting from surging demand for AI systems in fiscal 2025. The company has capitalized on the AI boom, driven by demand for Nvidia-powered servers, with a notable client being Elon Musk’s xAI. At the end of January, Dell had $4.1 billion in backlogged AI server orders and sold approximately $10 billion worth of AI-optimized servers in FY25. It expects AI system sales to reach $15 billion in the current fiscal year. However, Dell’s largest segment, the Client Solutions Group, posted a slower-than-expected 5% sales increase to $11.88 billion in Q4 FY25, weighed down by continued weakness in the laptop market. A potential PC refresh cycle in 2025 could help revive demand. Looking ahead, management expects stronger AI-driven growth later this year as production capacity improves, noting that AI server demand remains robust. The company also announced a $10 billion expansion of its stock buyback program. Still, near-term headwinds persist, with uncertainty around the sustainability of the AI boom posing a potential risk. 1Q26recommended trading range: $95 to $120. Neutral Outlook.
1Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue of $117M to $123M. GAAP gross margin to range between 25% to 27% and non GAAP gross margin to range between 30% to 32%
Comment: In the fourth quarter of 2024, the company achieved revenue of US$132mn, reflecting a 121% YoY increase, largely driven by the Space Systems segment. This marked a sequential growth of 26.3%, supported by an increase in launches, including higher ASP HACE missions. FY24 revenue reached US$436mn, a 78% growth. The Launch Services segment generated US$42.4mn in Q4 and US$125.4mn for the year, a 74% annual increase. Space Systems contributed US$90mn in Q4 and US$310.8mn for the year, growing 80% YoY. Gross margins also improved, with Q4 GAAP gross margin at 27.8% and non-GAAP at 34%, reflecting scaling benefits. The company ended Q4 with a total backlog of US$1.07bn, including US$386mn for Launch Services and US$681mn for Space Systems. The company emphasized the increasing size and complexity of customer contracts, with around 50% of the backlog expected to be converted into revenue within 12 months, and government-related contracts remain a strong stabilizing factor. For Q125, revenue is expected between US$117mn and US$123mn, reflecting 29% YoY growth. Gross margins are projected to range from 25%-27% GAAP and 30%-32% non-GAAP. Operating expenses will rise due to ongoing Neutron investments, and adjusted EBITDA loss is forecasted between US$33mn and US$35mn. Looking ahead, with plans for Neutron’s inaugural launch later in the year and increased expenditure in the near-term, we anticipate the bottom lines to be impacted.1Q25recommended trading range: $16 to $19. Neutral Outlook.
Rescheduled its Q4 and full year 2024 earnings call to March 3
Archer Aviation Inc (ACHR)
4Q24 Net Loss: $198.1M
4Q24 Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA: -$94.8M
1Q25 Guidance: Expect Adjusted EBITDA to be a loss of $95 million to $110 million
Comment: For the fourth quarter, Archer Aviation delivered a net loss of US$198.1mn. The company aims to scale air travel significantly through AI-driven automation and cost-efficient electric powertrains. Archer’s flagship product, the Midnight electric air taxi, is set for commercial launch, with early deployments in global markets like Abu Dhabi before full U.S. FAA certification. Archer also formed an exclusive partnership with Anduril to develop a hybrid VTOL aircraft for military applications. Demand for this aircraft has exceeded expectations, and since FAA certification is not required for defense projects, Archer anticipates securing sizable programs of record in the near future. Archer has started manufacturing the Midnight aircraft at its ARC facility in Georgia, planning to build up to 10 units in 2024 to support certification testing and initial deployments. Financially, Archer maintains a strong liquidity position, with over US$1bn in total liquidity, including US$835mn in cash and an additional US$302mn raised through an equity offering in February 2025. In 1Q25, Archer projects an Adjusted EBITDA loss between US$95mn and US$110mn. Looking ahead, as Archer scales its operations and expands commercial deployments, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for electric air mobility in the long-term. 1Q25recommended trading range: $5 to $8. Neutral Outlook.
4Q24 Revenue: $209.6M, +38.8% YoY, beat estimates by $4.11M
4Q24 Net Income: $13.91M
1Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue for the first quarter ranging from $220.5 million to $223.5 million, compared to analysts’ estimate of $221.1 million
FY25 Guidance: Expect revenue in the range of $962.5 million to $978.5 million, compared to analysts’ estimate of $965.9 million and adjusted core profit between $259.9 million and $274 million this year, below estimates of $272.1 million
Comment: Duolingo delivered Q4 revenue of US$209.6mn, above analysts’ estimates. The company forecast higher-than-expected annual revenue for FY25, driven by increased adoption of its AI-powered subscription tier. The company operates a “freemium” model with two paid tiers, Super and Max, the latter featuring AI-driven video call conversations. Despite growing costs from its AI features, Duolingo projects 2025 revenue between US$962.5mn and US$978.5mn, slightly above analyst estimates pf US$965.9mn. Its first-quarter revenue is expected to range from US$220.5mn to US$223.5mn. However, AI-related expenses are anticipated to impact gross margin by 100 basis points, leading to a lower than expected adjusted core profit forecast of US$259.9mn to US$274mn. Duolingo saw a surge in users in February, partly due to TikTok ban discussions and a viral marketing stunt involving its mascot, Duo. Looking ahead, as the company continues to The focus on innovation and engagement, we expect its costs to decline over time. 1Q25recommended trading range: $340 to $380. Neutral Outlook.
