KGI Singapore Research

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Technical Analysis – 23 August 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC US)

  • Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA with constructive volume. 
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is turning constructive.
  • Long – Entry 435, Target 455, Stop 425

Boeing Company. (BA US)

  • Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 228, Target 238, Stop 223

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Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)

  • Shares closed above the 50dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.58, Target 0.62 Stop 0.56

iFast Corp. (IFAST SP)

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 5.65 Target 6.15, Stop 5.40

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Want Want China Holdings Ltd (151 HK)

  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume. The 50dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  • RSI is constructive, while MACD is negative.
  • Long – Entry 5.44 , Target 5.72, Stop 5.30

AviChina Industry & Technology Co Ltd (2357 HK)

  • Shares rose and closed above the 5dEMA.
  • RSI is positive, while MACD is negative.
  • Long – Entry 3.52, Target 3.72, Stop 3.42

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Baidu Inc (BIDU)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $4.7B, +15.0% YoY, beat estimates by $130M.
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPADS: $3.11, beat estimates by $0.78.
  • 3Q23 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  • Comment: Baidu saw a 15% YoY growth in revenue, bolstered by a post-pandemic recovery in advertising spending.  Its online market revenue rose by 15% to 19.6bn RMB and non-online marketing revenue grew by 12% to 6.8bn RMB.  The company’s co-founder and CEO said areas including advertising, healthcare, financial services, local services and travel outperformed and expected the momentum to continue.  Baidu is also investing heavily in generative AI and believes the technology will help many of its products gain market share.  The company is still waiting for Chinese regulators’ approval for a large-scale rollout of its ChatGPT-like Ernie bot to the public, but the company views authorities as being increasingly supportive of generative AI.  In the future, should Ernie Bot be legally allowed to be released to the public, Baidu will surpass current market expectations. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $128 to $150. Positive Outlook. 

百度 (BIDU)

  • 23财年第二季营收：47亿美元, 同比增幅15.0%，超预期1.3亿美元 
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.11美元，超预期0.78美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：不提供指引。
  • 短评：受疫情后广告支出复苏的提振，百度营收同比增长15%。其在线市场收入增长15%至196亿元人民币，非在线营销收入增长12%至68亿元人民币。该公司联合创始人兼首席执行官表示，包括广告、医疗保健、金融服务、本地服务和旅游在内的领域表现优异，并预计这一势头将持续下去。百度也在大力投资生成式人工智能，并相信该技术将帮助其许多产品获得市场份额。该公司仍在等待中国监管机构批准其向公众大规模推出类似chatgpt的Ernie机器人，但该公司认为当局越来越支持生成式人工智能。未来，如果Ernie Bot被法律允许向公众发布，百度将超越目前的市场预期。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：128美元至150美元。积极前景。

Macy’s Inc (M)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $5.13B, -8.4% YoY, beat estimates by $20M.
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.26, beat estimates by $0.12.
  • FY23 Guidance: Reaffirmed sales forecast of $22.8B to $23.2B and EPS of $2.70 to $3.20. Comparable-store sales are set to drop 6% to 7.5%.
  • Comment: Macy’s Q2 results exceeded expectations, but the company warned of weak consumer spending through the holiday shopping season. Macy’s credit card revenue slumped 41%, a sign that higher borrowing costs were straining customers. The retailer also saw a drop in demand from middle-income customers as they cut back spending on apparel and handbags amid elevated inflation. Despite these challenges, Macy’s is confident in its ability to pivot to the right inventory at the right time and right value. The company is further amplifying its strength as a gift-giving destination for the holiday season and is anticipating a strong holiday for toys. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $10 to $14. Neutral Outlook. 

梅西百货 (M)

  • 23财年第二季营收：51.3亿美元, 同比跌幅8.4%，超预期2,000万美元 
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.26美元，超预期0.12美元  
  • 23财年指引：重申销售预期为228亿美元至232亿美元，每股收益为2.70美元至3.20美元。同店销售额预计将下降6%至7.5%。
  • 短评：梅西百货第二季度业绩超出预期，但该公司警告称，假日购物季消费者支出疲软。梅西百货的信用卡收入下降了41%，这表明更高的借贷成本让顾客感到紧张。该零售商还发现，中等收入消费者的需求下降，因为他们在通货膨胀加剧的情况下削减了服装和手袋的支出。尽管面临这些挑战，梅西百货仍有信心在正确的时间和正确的价值上转向正确的库存。该公司正在进一步扩大其作为假日送礼购物点的实力，并预计玩具将迎来一个强劲的销售季。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：10美元至14美元。中性前景。

Lowe’s Companies Inc (LOW)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $24.96B, -9.2% YoY, in-line with estimates.
  • 2Q23 GAAP EPS: $4.56, beat estimates by $0.08.
  • FY23 Guidance: Affirming its outlook of total sales of approximately $87B – $89B vs. consensus of $88.05B; Comparable sales expected to be down -2% to -4% as compared to prior year; Adjusted operating income as a percentage of sales (adjusted operating margin) of 13.4% to 13.6%; Interest expense of approximately $1.5B; Adjusted effective income tax rate of approximately 25%; Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $13.20 to $13.60 vs. consensus of $13.38; Capital expenditures of up to $2B.
  • Comment: The company’s profit and sales fell less than expected in 2Q23 as growth online and by home professionals helped offset a decline in spending on discretionary do-it-yourself (DIY) projects.The company re-iterated its full-year guidance as it remains optimistic for the rest of FY23 with consumption at a healthy level, despite a pull-back in DIY discretionary spend. Management also feels positive towards the long-term outlook for home improvement due to the older age and low availability housing in the U.S. While U.S. consumer sentiment is improving, the company is still expected to face some headwinds as inflation remains more sticky than expected. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $220 to $245. Positive Outlook. 

劳氏 (LOW)

  • 23财年第二季营收：249.6亿美元, 同比跌幅9.2%，符合预期 
  • 23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：4.56美元，超预期0.08美元  
  • 23财年指引：确认其总销售额预期约为870亿至890亿美元，而市场预期为880.5亿美元；可比销售额预计同比下降-2%至-4%；调整后营业收入占销售额的百分比（调整后营业利润率）为13.4%至13.6%；利息支出约15亿美元；调整后的有效所得税税率约为25%；调整后的摊薄每股收益为13.20美元至13.60美元，而市场预期为13.38美元；资本支出高达20亿美元。
  • 短评：该公司23年第二季度的利润和销售额下降幅度小于预期，因为在线和家庭专业人士的增长帮助抵消了可自由支配的DIY项目支出的下降。该公司重申了其全年指引，因为它对23财年剩余时间保持乐观，消费处于健康水平，尽管DIY可自由支配支出有所回落。管理层也对家居装修的长期前景持乐观态度，因美国人口老龄化和可用住房较少。尽管美国消费者信心正在改善，但由于通胀仍比预期更为棘手，预计该公司仍将面临一些阻力。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：220美元至245美元。积极前景。

iQIYI Inc (IQ)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $1.1B, +10.7% YoY, beat estimates by $30M.
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.10, beat estimates by $0.03.
  • 3Q23 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  • Comment: While monthly average revenue per membership and average total subscribing members rose YoY in 2Q23, the average total subscribing members fell QoQ. This is reflected by the weakness in the Chinese market with weak consumption. More stimulus to boost consumption within the economy is expected to come in the near future, and China seeks to expand its domestic consumption to boost growth. While still being a market leader in China, the company also have increasing competition from competitors such as Tencent Video and Youku Tudou.  3Q23 recommended trading range: $4.0 to $6.5. Neutral Outlook. 

爱奇艺 (IQ)

  • 23财年第二季营收：11.0亿美元, 同比增幅10.7%，超预期3,000万美元
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.1美元，超预期0.03美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：不提供指引。
  • 短评：虽然每个会员的月平均收入和订阅会员的平均总人数在2013年第二季度同比增长，但订阅会员的平均总人数环比下降。这反映在消费疲软的中国市场上。预计在不久的将来会出台更多刺激措施来促进经济内部的消费，中国寻求扩大国内消费以促进经济增长。虽然仍然是中国市场的领导者，但该公司也面临着来自腾讯视频和优酷土豆等竞争对手的日益激烈的竞争。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：4.0美元至6.5美元。中性前景。

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