Technical Analysis – 21 February 2025

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN US)

• Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA. 5dEMA just cross the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 58.50 Target 64.50 Stop 55.50
  

The Hershey Co. (HSY US)

• Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 165 Target 181 Stop 157
  

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Valuetronics Holding Ltd. (VALUE SP)

• Shares closed at a high since July 2024 with a surge in volume. 20dEMA recently crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 0.650, Target 0.690, Stop 0.630
  

Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd. (JM SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 41.3 Target 45.3, Stop 39.3
  

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Weilong Delicious Global Holdings Ltd (9985 HK)

• Shares closed at a 3-month high above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume.
  
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  
• Long – Entry 7.9, Target 8.5, Stop 7.6
  

China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858 HK)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5wEMA.
  
• MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 2.34 Target 2.52, Stop 2.25
  

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Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA)

• 3Q25 Revenue: $38.38B, +8.0% YoY, beat estimates by $130M
  
• 3Q25 Non-GAAP EPADS: $2.93, beat estimates by $0.27
  
• FY25 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  
• Comment: Alibaba delivered strong quarterly results, supported by strategic pricing adjustments and intensified promotional efforts aimed at revitalizing consumer spending in its core domestic e-commerce business. Robust international demand and increased year-end spending further contributed to sales growth. China’s broader push to stimulate consumption—through a 300 billion yuan allocation in ultra-long special government bonds to support trade-in programs and equipment upgrades—is also benefiting the company. Additionally, Alibaba is capitalizing on China’s AI boom, unveiling an upgraded Qwen 2.5 AI model in late January, which it claims outperforms DeepSeek-V3. The company is deepening its commitment to AI and e-commerce with plans to invest further over the next three years. Notably, Alibaba has partnered with Apple to integrate its AI solutions into iPhones sold in China, strengthening its position in an increasingly competitive AI landscape, where homegrown rival DeepSeek is gaining traction with cost-effective models. These tailwinds are expected to support Alibaba’s growth momentum in the near term. 4Q25 recommended trading range: $125 to $155. Positive Outlook.
  

阿里巴巴 (BABA)

• 25财年第三季营收：383.8亿美元，同比增长8.0%，超出预期1.3亿美元
  
• 25财年第三季非公认会计准则每股收益：2.93美元，超出预期0.27美元
  
• 25财年全年指引：未提供指引。
  
• 短评：阿里巴巴公布了强劲的季度业绩，这得益于其核心国内电商业务的战略性定价调整和旨在重振消费者支出的促销力度。国际市场的强劲需求和年底支出的增加进一步推动了销售额的增长。中国推动刺激消费的更广泛努力——通过3000亿元人民币的超长期特别国债拨款，以支持以旧换新计划和设备升级——也使该公司受益。此外，阿里巴巴正在利用中国的人工智能热潮，于1月下旬推出了升级后的Qwen 2.5人工智能模型，声称其性能优于DeepSeek-V3。该公司正在深化其对人工智能和电子商务的承诺，计划在未来三年内进一步投资。值得注意的是，阿里巴巴已与苹果合作，将其人工智能解决方案整合到在中国销售的iPhone中，从而加强了其在竞争日益激烈的人工智能领域的地位，在这个领域，本土竞争对手DeepSeek凭借高性价比的车型获得了越来越多的关注。这些有利因素预计将在短期内支持阿里巴巴的增长势头。25财年第四季度建议交易区间：125美元至155美元。积极前景。
  

Walmart Inc (WMT)

• 4Q25 Revenue: $180.6B, +4.2% YoY, beat estimates by $1.6B
  
• 4Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.66, beat estimates by $0.01
  
• 1Q26 Guidance: Expects Net sales growth to be between 3.0% to 4.0%, midpoint of 3.5% below consensus of 3.86%; expects adjusted EPS to be between $0.57 to $0.58, midpoint of $0.575 below consensus of $0.65.
  
• FY26 Guidance: Expects net sales growth to be between 3.0% to 4.0%, midpoint of 3.5% below consensus of 4.19%; expects adjusted EPS to be between $2.50 to $2.60, midpoint of $2.55 below consensus of $2.77.
  
• Comment: Walmart delivered strong results, driven by growth in store pickup, home deliveries, and increased spending from higher-income shoppers. The company saw solid gains in its e-commerce business and membership programs but flagged uncertainties in the geopolitical landscape. Management also pointed to potential headwinds from future import tariffs. While Walmart expects profit growth to slow in the current fiscal year, it remains optimistic about the resilience of its U.S. grocery and Sam’s Club businesses, as well as continued gains from higher-income consumers post-COVID. However, with consumer sentiment weakening in the first two months of 2025, the company is likely to face near-term consumption pressures, compounded by persistent inflation and elevated interest rates. 1Q26 recommended trading range: $90 to $105. Neutral Outlook.
  

沃尔玛 (WMT)

• 25财年第四季营收：1806亿美元，同比增长4.2%，超出预期16亿美元
  
• 25财年第四季非公认会计准则每股收益：0.66美元，超出预期0.01美元
  
• 26财年第一季指引：预计净销售额增长在3.0%至4.0%之间，中点为3.5%，低于市场普遍预期的3.86%；预计调整后每股收益在0.57美元至0.58美元之间，中点为0.575美元，低于市场普遍预期的0.65美元。
  
• 26财年全年指引：预计净销售额增长在3.0%至4.0%之间，中点为3.5%，低于市场普遍预期的4.19%；预计调整后每股收益在2.50美元至2.60美元之间，中点为2.55美元，低于市场普遍预期的2.77美元。
  
• 短评：沃尔玛公布了强劲的业绩，这得益于门店提货、送货上门业务的增长以及高收入购物者支出增加的推动。该公司电子商务业务和会员计划均实现稳健增长，但同时也指出地缘政治格局存在不确定性。管理层还指出，未来进口关税可能带来不利影响。虽然沃尔玛预计本财年利润增长将放缓，但仍对其美国杂货业务和山姆会员店的韧性以及后疫情时代高收入消费者持续增长的前景感到乐观。然而，由于2025年前两个月消费者信心减弱，该公司可能面临近期消费压力，再加上持续的通货膨胀和高利率，情况可能会更加复杂。26财年第一季度建议交易区间：90美元至105美元。中性前景。
  

Unity Software Inc (U)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $457.1M, -25.0% YoY, beat estimates by $23.63M
  
• 4Q24 GAAP EPS: -$0.30, beat estimates by $0.07
  
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue between $405-415M and adjusted EBITDA of $60-65M.
  
• Comment: Unity reported better-than-expected fourth quarter results despite a YoY revenue decline due to its portfolio reset and the termination of its Wētā FX agreement. Revenue fell 25% YoY to US$457mn, while adjusted EBITDA reached US$106mn with a 23% margin, reflecting strong cost control. For FY24, revenue declined 17% to US$1.81bn, while free cash flow improved to US$286mn, showing operational efficiency gains. Create Solutions revenue fell 29% YoY, while Grow Solutions declined 10%. The launch of Unity 6, a new pricing model, and advancements in AI for advertising are key growth drivers. Looking ahead, Unity projects 1Q25 revenue between US$405mn – US$415mn and adjusted EBITDA of US$60mn – US$65mn, as the company continues restructuring efforts and aims for long-term profitability. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $24 to $29. Positive Outlook.
  

Unity Software Inc (U)

• 24财年第四季度营收：4.571亿美元，同比下降25.0%，超出预期2.363亿美元
  
• 24财年第四季度GAAP每股收益：-0.30美元，超出预期0.07美元
  
• 25财年第一季度指引：预计营收为4.05-4.15亿美元，调整后EBITDA为6000-6500万美元
  
• 短评：尽管受投资组合调整及终止Wētā FX协议的影响，Unity第四季度业绩仍好于预期。营收同比下降25%至4.57亿美元，而调整后EBITDA达到1.06亿美元，利润率为23%，反映出公司出色的成本控制能力。24财年全年营收同比下降17%至18.1亿美元，自由现金流提升至2.86亿美元，显示出经营效率的改善。Create Solutions营收同比下降29%，Grow Solutions营收同比下降10%。Unity 6的发布、新定价模式的推行，以及广告业务在人工智能领域的进展成为公司未来增长的重要驱动力。展望未来，Unity预计25财年第一季度营收将在4.05亿至4.15亿美元之间，调整后EBITDA为6000万至6500万美元，公司将继续推进业务重组，以实现长期盈利目标。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：24美元至29美元。积极前景。
  

Block Inc (XYZ)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $6.03B, +4.5% YoY, miss estimates by $230M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.71, miss estimates by $0.16
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expect gross profit growth this year of 15% to $10.22 billion and adjusted operating income of $2.1 billion for a margin of 21%.
  
• Comment: Block reported fourth quarter earnings that fell short of Wall Street expectations, EPS of US$0.71 and revenue of US$6.03bn below expectations of US$0.87 and US$6.29bn respectively. Despite the revenue miss, gross profit rose 14% YoY to US$2.31bn, and gross payment volume (GPV) of US$61.95bn slightly beat expectations. Adjusted EBITDA came in at US$757mn, exceeding estimates. Looking ahead, Block projects 15% gross profit growth in 2025 to US$10.22bn and US$2.1bn in adjusted operating income for a margin of 21%. The company continues to expand beyond traditional payments, integrating its Afterpay buy now, pay later service into Cash App and Square’s ecosystem. Its CEO emphasized a vision to unify Cash App and Square into a single financial ecosystem, reducing reliance on multiple financial apps. Block is also making a major push into Bitcoin mining with its Proto open mining system, expecting growth benefits in 2H25. Looking ahead, Block is poised to capture a significant share of the market as it rolls out its own mining chips and systems this year. However, Block may face near-term headwinds in the short-term. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $75 to $85. Neutral Outlook.
  

Block Inc (XYZ)

• 24财年第四季度营收： 60.3亿美元，同比增长4.5%，低于预期2.3亿美元
  
• 24财年第四季度Non-GAAP每股收益： 0.71美元，低于预期0.16美元
  
• 25财年指引：预计全年毛利润增长15%至102.2亿美元，调整后营业收入为21亿美元，利润率为21%
  
• 短评：Block第四季度财报未达华尔街预期，每股收益0.71美元，营收60.3亿美元，均低于市场预期的0.87美元和62.9亿美元。尽管营收未达标，但毛利润同比增长14%至23.1亿美元，总支付额（GPV）达619.5亿美元，略超市场预期。调整后EBITDA达7.57亿美元，超过预期。 展望未来，Block预计2025年毛利润将增长15%至102.2亿美元，调整后营业收入为21亿美元，利润率为21%。公司正不断扩展支付业务以外的领域，将Afterpay“先买后付”服务整合进Cash App和Square生态系统。CEO强调，公司目标是统一Cash App和Square，打造单一金融生态系统，减少对多个金融应用的依赖。同时，Block正大举进军比特币挖矿，推出Proto开放式挖矿系统，预计将在2025年下半年带来增长动力。未来，Block计划推出自研挖矿芯片和系统，抢占市场份额。 然而，公司短期内可能面临一定挑战。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：75美元至85美元。中性前景。
  

Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $1.73B, +31.1% YoY, beat estimates by $300M
  
• 4Q24 GAAP EPS: -$0.70, beat estimates by $0.07
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expect 46,000 – 51,000 vehicles delivered. Adj. EBITDA of between -$1,700M to -$1,900M and capital expenditures of $1,600M to $1,700M.
  
• Comment: Rivian Automotive reported its first-ever quarterly gross profit of US$170mn in 4Q24, surpassing Wall Street’s US$32mn expectation. Despite this milestone, the company warned that potential policy changes in Washington, including tariffs and EV tax credits, could impact sales in 2025. Rivian expects to sell 46,000 to 51,000 EVs this year, below analysts’ estimates of 54,800. Its CEO highlighted concerns over rising supply chain costs due to potential tariff adjustments. Revenue from regulatory credit sales jumped US$260mn in Q4, a key source of income for Rivian and other EV makers like Tesla. While changes to fuel economy and emissions regulations could affect this revenue stream, the comapny believes state-level credit programs will remain intact. Looking ahead, Rivian plans to bolster its competitive position through continued EV innovation, strategic partnerships, such as its collaboration with Volkswagen, and enhanced operational efficiencies. Despite uncertainties surrounding policy shifts, Rivian’s first-ever quarterly gross profit signals strong execution, maintaining investor confidence in its long-term growth potential. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $13 to $15. Neutral Outlook.
  

Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN)

• 24财年第四季度营收： 17.3亿美元，同比增长31.1%，超出预期3亿美元
  
• 24财年第四季度GAAP每股收益： -0.70美元，超出预期0.07美元
  
• 25财年指引： 预计交付46,000 – 51,000辆汽车，调整后EBITDA预计为-17亿至-19亿美元，资本支出预计为16亿至17亿美元
  
• 短评：Rivian在24财年第四季度实现了首次季度毛利润1.7亿美元，远超市场预期的3,200万美元。然而，公司警告称，美国华盛顿可能实施的政策调整，包括关税和电动车税收抵免政策，可能会影响2025年的销售。Rivian预计今年将售出46,000至51,000辆电动车，低于分析师预期的54,800辆。 其CEO强调，由于潜在的关税调整，供应链成本可能上升。第四季度监管信贷销售收入增长至2.6亿美元，这一收入来源对Rivian及特斯拉等电动车制造商至关重要。尽管燃油经济性和排放法规的变化可能影响该收入来源，但公司认为各州的信贷计划仍将持续。 展望未来，Rivian计划通过持续的电动车创新、与大众汽车等战略合作伙伴关系，以及提升运营效率来增强竞争力。尽管政策变动带来不确定性，但公司首次实现季度毛利润显示出强劲的执行能力，维持了投资者对其长期增长潜力的信心。 25财年第一季度建议交易区间： 13美元至15美元。中性前景。