Technical Analysis – 2 October 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Century Aluminium Co. (CENX US)

Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
MACD just turned positive, RSI is turning constructive.
Long – Entry 7.10, Target 7.50, Stop 6.90

Alcoa Corp. (AA US)

Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA.
MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 28.8, Target 30.8, Stop 27.8

SATS Ltd. (SATS SP)

Shares closed at the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 2.58, Target 2.72, Stop 2.51

Frencken Group Ltd. (FRKN SP)

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 50dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 1.10 Target 1.16 Stop 1.07

Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd (1347 HK)

Shares closed above the 20dEMA. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
Long – Entry 19.5, Target 21.3, Stop 18.6

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (981 HK)

Shares closed above the 5dEMA.
RSI is constructive and MACD just turned positive.
Long – Entry 20, Target 22, Stop 19

Carnival Corp. (CCL)

3Q23 Revenue: $6.85B, +58.9% YoY, beats estimates by $160M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.86, beat estimates by $0.13
4Q23 Guidance: Adjusted EBITDA of $800mn to $900mn; Net yields (in constant currency) up mid-single digits compared to 2019 with occupancy in line with historical levels and net per diems (in constant currency) up 7.0% to 8.0% compared to 2019. FY23 Guidance: Adjusted EBITDA of $4.1bn to $4.2bn, within the June guidance range, despite the $125mn net unfavourable impact from fuel price and currency from June guidance; Occupancy of 100% or higher; Net per diems (in constant currency) up approximately 7.0% compared to 2019, one percentage point higher than the midpoint of June guidance, based on the continued strength in close-in demand; Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD (in constant currency) at the high end of June guidance range; Fuel consumption per ALBD to be nearly 16% lower than 2019, better than previously expected.
Comment: The company reduced its loss forecast and saw a 3rd quarter profit attributed to higher ticket pricing and robust demand for cruise trips. Cruise liners such as Carnival, Norwegian Cruise Lines, and Royal Caribbean has been able to increase their ticket prices but still stay cheaper than hotels. This has been successful in drawing demand for experience through a cruise for consumers, instead of spending unnecessarily on big-ticket items. However, cruise liners also see some headwinds in the market as a result of higher fuel costs, as supply cuts drive up oil prices. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $11 to $16. Neutral Outlook.

嘉年华邮轮 (CCL)

23财年第三季营收：68.5亿美元, 同比增幅58.9%，超预期1.6亿美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.86美元，超预期0.13美元
23财年第四季指引：调整后EBITDA为8亿美元至9亿美元；与2019年同期相比，净收益率（以固定汇率计算）增长个位数，入住率与历史水平一致，净每股收入（以固定汇率计算）增长7.0%至8.0%。
23财年指引：调整后EBITDA为41亿美元至42亿美元，在6月份指引范围内，尽管6月份指引中燃油价格和汇率的净不利影响为1.25亿美元；入住率100%或以上；与2019年同期相比，每股净收益(按固定汇率计算)增长约7.0%，比6月份指引值的中点高出1个百分点，原因是近距离需求持续强劲；调整后的巡航成本，不包括每个平均下泊位日(ALBD)的燃油（以固定汇率计算），在6月指引范围的高端；每台ALBD的燃油消耗量将比2019年降低近16%，好于此前的预期。
短评：该公司下调了亏损预期，并将第三季度盈利归因于更高的票价和强劲的邮轮旅行需求。嘉年华、挪威邮轮和皇家加勒比等邮轮公司已经能够提高票价，但仍然比酒店便宜。这已经成功地吸引了消费者对邮轮体验的需求，而不是在昂贵的物品上花费不必要的钱。然而，由于供应减少推高了油价，燃油成本上升也给邮轮市场带来了一些不利因素。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：11 美元至16美元。中性前景。