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Technical Analysis – 2 May 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ US) A graph of stock market Description automatically generated

  • Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 150, Target 162, Stop 144

Pfizer, Inc. (PFE US)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 27.0, Target 29.0, Stop 26.0

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Seatrium Ltd (STM SP)

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  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA.
  • MACD is positive while RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.096, Target 0.104, Stop 0.092

Banyan Tree Holdings Ltd (BTH SP)

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  • Shares closed at a 6-month high above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
  • RSI is constructive and MACD turned positive.
  • Long – Entry 0.385, Target 0.415, Stop 0.370

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HSBC Holdings PLC (5 HK)

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  • Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5wEMA.
  • RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  • Long – Entry 66.0, Target 70.4, Stop 63.8
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Bank of China Ltd (3988HK)

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  • Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5wEMA.
  • MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 3.50, Target 3.80, Stop 3.35

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PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) 

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $7.7B, +9.4% YoY, beat estimates by $180M 
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.40, beat estimates by $0.18 
  • 2Q24 Guidance: Expect net revenues to increase approximately 6.5% vs 6.77% consensus; Expect GAAP diluted EPS to be $0.83. In the second quarter of 2023, GAAP EPS included a positive impact of approximately $0.09 from PayPal’s strategic investment portfolio. Non-GAAP diluted EPS expected to increase by a low double-digit percentage compared to $0.87 (based on the new non-GAAP methodology) in the prior year period. GAAP earnings per diluted share expected to be approximately $3.65, compared to $3.84 in the prior year.   
  • FY24 Guidance: In 2023, GAAP EPS included positive impacts of approximately $0.24 from the gain on the sale of Happy Returns and approximately $0.14 from PayPal’s strategic investment portfolio. Non-GAAP diluted EPS expected to increase by a mid to high single-digit percentage compared to $3.83 (based on the new non-GAAP methodology) in the prior year.  
  • Comment: Paypal announced robust results driven by higher-than-anticipated total payment volume and increased transactions per active account. Management forecasts 2024 as a transition year, emphasizing execution. The company is prioritizing turnaround efforts to enhance its competitive standing for sustained, profitable growth. Despite heightened consumer confidence since 2024, stiff competition from Apple and Google in digital payments persists. However, a prolonged period of high interest rates could potentially affect transaction volumes. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $58 to $74. Neutral Outlook.  

贝宝(PYPL)  

  • 24财年第一季营收：77.0亿美元，同比增幅9.4%，超预期1.8亿美元 
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.40美元，超预期0.18美元 
  • 24财年第二季指引：预计净收入增长约6.5%，而市场预期为6.77%;预计GAAP摊薄后每股收益为0.83美元。在2023年第二季度，GAAP每股收益包括了PayPal战略投资组合约0.09美元的积极影响。与去年同期的0.87美元（基于新的Non-GAAP方法）相比，Non-GAAP摊薄每股收益预计将增长两位数。GAAP每股摊薄收益预计约为3.65美元，而去年为3.84美元。 
  • 24财年指引：2023年，GAAP每股收益包括来自Happy Returns出售收益的约0.24美元的积极影响，以及来自PayPal战略投资组合的约0.14美元的积极影响。与去年的3.83美元（基于新的Non-GAAP方法）相比，Non-GAAP摊薄每股收益预计将增长中至高个位数百分比。 
  • 短评：贝宝公布了强劲的业绩，这得益于高于预期的总支付量和每个活跃账户的交易增加。管理层预测2024年为过渡期，强调执行力。该公司正在优先考虑扭亏为盈的努力，以提高其持续盈利增长的竞争地位。尽管自2024年以来消费者信心增强，但来自苹果和谷歌在数字支付领域的激烈竞争仍在继续。然而，长期的高利率可能会影响交易量。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：57美至74美元。中性前景。 

Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) 

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $8.77B, +26.0% YoY, miss estimates by $160M 
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.58, beat estimates by $0.09 
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect Revenue to be between $42.4bn to $43.6bn; Expect Non-GAAP EPS between $13.50 to $14.00. 
  • Comment: Eli Lilly released a mixed earnings report but revised its sales forecast upward for FY24. Strong demand exceeded expectations for its anti-obesity medication, Zepbound, while sales of diabetes drugs Mounjaro and Trulicity fell slightly short of market projections. Anticipating a surge in demand, the company plans substantial production increases in the latter half of the year for both its obesity treatment and the related diabetes drug Mounjaro, which currently faces shortages. Additionally, Eli Lilly disclosed plans to acquire a manufacturing facility from privately-held Nexus Pharmaceuticals to bolster its production of injectable medicines. The approval of Lilly’s multi-dose Kwikpen for Mounjaro in Europe arrived slightly sooner than anticipated, boosting the company’s confidence in its European launch prospects. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $760 to $820. Positive Outlook.  

礼来(LLY)  

  • 24财年第一季营收：87.7亿美元，同比增幅26.0%，逊预期1.6亿美元 
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.58美元，超预期0.09美元 
  • 24财年指引：预计收入将在424亿美元至436亿美元之间；预计Non-GAAP每股收益在13.50美元至14.00美元之间。 
  • 短评：来公司发布了喜忧参半的收益报告，但上调了其24财年的销售预测。其抗肥胖药物Zepbound的强劲需求超出了预期，而糖尿病药物Mounjaro和Trulicity的销量略低于市场预期。预计需求将激增，该公司计划在今年下半年大幅增加其肥胖治疗药物和相关糖尿病药物Mounjaro的产量，这两种药物目前面临短缺。此外，礼来公司披露了从私人持有的Nexus制药公司收购生产设施的计划，以加强其注射药物的生产。礼来公司的多剂量Kwikpen在欧洲的批准比预期的要早，这增强了该公司对欧洲上市前景的信心。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：760美至820美元。积极前景。 

3M Co. (MMM) 

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $7.7B, flat YoY, beat estimates by $40M 
  • 1Q24 GAAP EPS: $2.39, beat estimates by $0.28 
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect adjusted total sales growth between -0.25% to +1.75%; Expected organic sales growth between 0% to +2%; Expected adjusted EPS between $6.80 to $7.30. 
  • Comment: 3M reported results exceeding expectations, driven by increased sales in its electronics segment. Heightened demand for electronics components used in mobile devices and automobiles aided the company, which had previously faced challenges as consumers delayed purchases of high-value items due to inflationary pressures. Additionally, 3M anticipates slightly stronger sales in the second half of 2024 compared to the first half. The company has also seen benefits from consistent price hikes over the past two years and cost-saving measures including workforce reductions and the spin-off of its healthcare division. Furthermore, 3M intends to reset its dividend at around 40% of adjusted free cash flow, with potential for growth following the healthcare business spin-off. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $92 to $110. Positive Outlook.  

3M公司(MMM)  

  • 24财年第一季营收：77.0亿美元，同比持平，超预期4,000万美元 
  • 24财年第一季GAAP每股盈利：1.07美元，超预期0.28美元 
  • 24财年指引：预计调整后的总销售增长在-0.25%至+1.75%之间；预计有机销售额增长在0%至+2%之间；预期调整后每股收益在6.80美元至7.30美元之间。 
  • 短评：3M公布了超出预期的业绩，这得益于其电子产品部门销售额的增长。对用于移动设备和汽车的电子元件的需求增加，帮助了该公司。由于通胀压力，消费者推迟购买高价值商品，该公司此前曾面临挑战。此外，3M预计2024年下半年的销售额将略高于上半年。该公司还受益于过去两年持续的价格上涨，以及包括裁员和剥离医疗保健部门在内的成本节约措施。此外，3M公司打算将其股息重新调整为调整后自由现金流的40%左右，在医疗保健业务分拆后具有增长潜力。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：92美至110美元。积极前景。 

McDonald’s Corp (MCD) 

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $6.17B, +4.6% YoY, in-line with estimates. 
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.70, miss estimates by $0.03 
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect full-year comparable sales – both globally and in the U.S. – to grow between 4% and 6%. 
  • Comment: McDonald’s released a mixed earnings report, with profit affected by its reorganization efforts and sales in the Middle East impacted by boycotts. Global consumer restraint in restaurant spending also persists. Both worldwide and in the U.S. market, same-store sales growth fell below expectations. In response, the company launched an enhanced version of its burgers nationwide, featuring its Hamburglar mascot in advertising campaigns, aiming to convince customers of the value of its prices. Additionally, McDonald’s culinary team is developing a larger burger, slated for testing in select markets later this year before a potential global rollout. Despite these efforts, management noted that same-store sales remained relatively stagnant a month into 2Q24. The company also continued to face pressure from protests and boycott campaigns over their perceived pro-Israeli stance. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $260 to $290. Neutral Outlook.  

麦当劳(MCD)  

  • 24财年第一季营收：61.7亿美元，同比增幅4.6%，符合预期 
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.70美元，逊预期0.03美元 
  • 24财年指引：预计全年全球和美国的可比销售额将增长4%至6%。 
  • 短评：麦当劳发布了一份喜忧参半的收益报告，其利润受到重组努力的影响，而中东地区的销售受到抵制的影响。全球消费者对餐饮支出的限制也在持续。全球和美国市场的同店销售增长都低于预期。作为回应，该公司在全国范围内推出了一款加强型汉堡，并在广告活动中推出了“汉堡包”吉祥物，旨在让顾客相信其价格的价值。此外，麦当劳的烹饪团队正在开发一种更大的汉堡，计划今年晚些时候在选定的市场进行测试，然后可能在全球推广。尽管做出了这些努力，但管理层指出，截至24年第二季度的一个月，同店销售仍然相对停滞。该公司还继续面临来自抗议和抵制活动的压力，这些抗议和抵制活动是由于他们被认为是亲以色列的立场。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：260美至290美元。中性前景。 

Coca-Cola Co (KO) 

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $11.3B, +2.7% YoY, beat estimates by $330M 
  • 1Q24 non-GAAP EPS: $0.72, beat estimates by $0.02 
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth of 8% to 9%, for comparable net revenues (non-GAAP), the company expects a 4% to 5% currency headwind; Expects neutral EPS (non-GAAP) growth of 11% to 13%; Expects comparable EPS (non-GAAP) growth of 4% to 5%, versus $2.69 in 2023.  
  • Comment: Coca-Cola reported robust earnings and revised its full-year organic revenue forecast upwards. Despite a 1% increase in global unit case volume, North American volume remained flat for the quarter. While management believes the U.S. consumer market is still strong overall, low-income customers have experienced a decrease in purchasing power. This economic strain has led to a slowdown in sales for some of Coca-Cola’s fast-food partners, such as McDonald’s, as consumers become more cautious with their spending. Nevertheless, the company raised its FY24 outlook, citing anticipated benefits from price adjustments in markets facing significant inflationary pressures. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $59 to $65. Neutral Outlook.  

可口可乐(KO)  

  • 24财年第一季营收：113亿美元，同比增幅2.7%，超预期3.3亿美元 
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.72美元，逊预期0.02美元 
  • 24财年指引：预计有机收入(Non-GAAP)增长8%至9%，相对净收入(Non-GAAP)，公司预计汇率阻力为4%至5%；预计中性每股收益(Non-GAAP)增长11%至13%；预计可比每股收益(Non-GAAP)将增长4%至5%，而2023年为2.69美元。 
  • 短评：可口可乐公布了强劲的收益，并上调了全年有机收入预期。尽管全球单位箱销量增长了1%，但本季度北美销量持平。虽然管理层认为美国消费市场总体上仍然强劲，但低收入客户的购买力有所下降。这种经济压力导致可口可乐的一些快餐合作伙伴(如麦当劳)的销售放缓，因为消费者对他们的支出变得更加谨慎。尽管如此，该公司还是上调了24财年的预期，理由是在面临巨大通胀压力的市场，价格调整将带来预期收益。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：59美至65美元。中性前景。 

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) 

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $143.3B, +12.5% YoY, beat estimates by $750M 
  • 1Q24 EPS: $0.98, beat estimates by $0.15 
  • 2Q24 Guidance: Net sales are expected to be between $144.0bn and $149.0bn vs. $150.09bn consensus, or to grow between 7% and 11% compared with 2Q23. This guidance anticipates an unfavorable impact of approximately 60 basis points from foreign exchange rates. In 1Q24 the impact from leap year added approximately 120 basis points to the year-over-year net sales growth rate. Operating income is expected to be between $10.0bn and $14.0bn, compared with $7.7bn in 2Q23. 
  • Comment: Amazon reported better-than-anticipated earnings, fueled by increased revenue from advertising and cloud computing. First-quarter sales at AWS surged by 17% to $25bn, surpassing Wall Street’s projection of 12% growth to $24.5bn. The company’s earnings growth has been propelled by various factors including widespread cost reduction efforts, optimizations in fulfillment operations, and stabilization of cloud-related expenditures. While Amazon anticipates continued profitability growth in the second quarter, the pace is expected to be more moderate. Additionally, the company noted that cost optimizations are showing signs of leveling off, and they view the demand for generative artificial intelligence as a potential driver of growth for their cloud business. However, a prolonged interest rate environment may dampen consumer spending for Amazon’s products, which may impact the company sales. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $165 to $195. Neutral Outlook.  

亚马逊(AMZN)  

  • 24财年第一季营收：1,433亿美元，同比增幅12.5%，超预期7.5亿美元 
  • 24财年第一季每股盈利：0.98美元，超预期0.15美元 
  • 24财年第二季指引：净销售额预计在1,440亿美元至1,490亿美元之间，而市场预期为1,500.9亿美元，或与23年第二季度相比增长7%至11%。这一指引预计外汇汇率将产生约60个基点的不利影响。在24年第一季度，闰年的影响使同比净销售额增长率增加了约120个基点。营业利润预计将在100亿美元至140亿美元之间，而2023年第二季度为77亿美元。 
  • 短评：受广告和云计算收入增长的推动，亚马逊公布的收益好于预期。AWS第一季度销售额飙升17%，达到250亿美元，超过了华尔街预测的增长12%，达到245亿美元。该公司的盈利增长受到多种因素的推动，包括广泛的成本削减努力、履行业务的优化以及云相关支出的稳定。虽然亚马逊预计第二季度盈利能力将继续增长，但预计增长速度将更为温和。此外，该公司指出，成本优化正显示出企稳的迹象，他们认为对生成式人工智能的需求是其云业务增长的潜在动力。然而，长期的利率环境可能会抑制消费者对亚马逊产品的支出，这可能会影响公司的销售。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：165美至195美元。中性前景。 

Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) 

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $5.47B, +2.2% YoY, beat estimates by $20M 
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.62, beat estimates by $0.01 
  • 2Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue to be approximately $5.7bn, plus or minus $300mn vs. $5.69B consensus. At the mid-point of the revenue range, this represents YoY growth of approximately 6% and sequential growth of approximately 4%. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be approximately 53%. 
  • Comment: AMD reported earnings that surpassed expectations, yet disappointed with its forecast for artificial intelligence (AI) processors. The company anticipates data center GPU revenue for FY24 to surpass $4bn, exceeding its previous estimate of $3.5bn but still falling significantly short of analysts’ projections. While the client segment experienced an impressive 80% year-over-year revenue increase, offsetting a 48% decline in gaming sales attributed to reduced chip revenue for game consoles, other segments delivered mixed results. AMD continues to grapple with supply challenges hindering chip production. Nevertheless, the company is actively developing new AI chips and successors to its current generation of chips. Moreover, AMD has expanded its market share in the server CPU segment and foresees growing demand for its CPUs fueled by the AI server industry boom. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $130 to $170. Neutral Outlook.  

超微半导体(AMD)  

  • 24财年第一季营收：54.7亿美元，同比增幅2.2%，超预期2,000万美元 
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.62美元，超预期0.01美元 
  • 24财年第二季指引：预计营收约为57亿美元，上下浮动3亿美元，而市场预期为56.9亿美元。在收入区间的中点，这代表同比增长约6%，环比增长约4%。Non-GAAP毛利率预计约为53%。 
  • 短评：AMD公布的收益超出预期，但对人工智能处理器的预期却令人失望。该公司预计，数据中心GPU在2024财年的营收将超过40亿美元，超过此前估计的35亿美元，但仍远低于分析师的预测。虽然客户端部门的收入同比增长了80%，抵消了游戏机芯片收入减少导致的游戏业务销售额下降48%的影响，但其他部门的业绩喜忧参半。AMD继续与阻碍芯片生产的供应挑战作斗争。尽管如此，三星电子正在积极开发新的人工智能芯片和现有芯片的后继产品。此外，AMD在服务器CPU领域扩大了市场份额，并预计，随着人工智能服务器产业的蓬勃发展，AMD的CPU需求将不断增长。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：130美至170美元。中性前景。 

Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) 

  • 3Q24 Revenue: $3.85B, +200.8% YoY, miss estimates by $50M 
  • 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $6.65, beat estimates by $1.08 
  • 4Q24 Guidance: Expect net sales of $5.1B to $5.5B vs $4.86B consensus, GAAP net income per diluted share of $7.20 to $8.05 and non-GAAP net income per diluted share of $7.62 to $8.42 vs $6.96 consensus. FY24 Guidance: Raised revenue expectations from a range of $14.3B to$14.7B to a range of $14.7B to $15.1B vs $14.59B consensus and established forecast for GAAP net income per diluted share of $21.61 to $22.46 and non-GAAP net income per diluted share of $23.29 to $24.09.  
  • Comment: Super Micro Computer Inc. reported quarterly sales slightly below estimates, disappointing investors expecting a boost from AI-related demand. Despite revenue climbing to US$3.85bn in the fiscal third quarter and profit per share exceeding expectations at $6.65, the results failed to meet lofty investor expectations. The company’s growth has been driven by increased demand for equipment powering artificial intelligence training, yet concerns persist over potential revenue impact from Nvidia’s expansion into new business lines. Super Micro expects revenue in the upcoming quarter to range from US$5.1bn to US$5.5bn, surpassing analyst projections, with anticipated profit per share ranging between US$7.62 to US$8.42. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $650 to $900. Neutral Outlook.  

超微电脑(SMCI)  

  • 24财年第三季营收：38.5亿美元，同比增幅200.8%，逊预期5,000万美元 
  • 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：6.65美元，超预期1.08美元 
  • 24财年第四季指引：预计净销售额为51亿美元至55亿美元，而市场预期为48.6亿美元，GAAP摊薄每股净利润为7.20美元至8.05美元，Non-GAAP摊薄每股净利润为7.62美元至8.42美元，市场预期为6.96美元。24财年指引：将收入预期从143亿美元至147亿美元上调至147亿美元至151亿美元，而市场预期为145.9亿美元，并建立了GAAP摊薄每股净收入预测为21.61美元至22.46美元，Non-GAAP摊薄每股净收入预测为23.29美元至24.09美元。 
  • 短评：超微电脑公布的季度销售额略低于预期，令投资者对人工智能相关需求提振的预期落空。尽管第三财季营收攀升至38.5亿美元，每股利润超过预期，达到6.65美元，但业绩未能满足投资者的高期望。该公司的增长一直受到人工智能培训设备需求增加的推动，但人们仍然担心英伟达向新业务线扩张可能对收入产生影响。超微预计，下一季度营收将在51亿美元至55亿美元之间，超过分析师预期，每股利润预计在7.62美元至8.42美元之间。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：650美至900美元。中性前景。 

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) 

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $14.9B, -19.5% YoY, beat estimates by $980M 
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.82, beat estimates by $0.31 
  • FY24 Guidance: Company is on track to deliver at least $4B in net cost savings by the end of 2024. Reaffirms FY24 revenue guidance of $58.5B to $61.5B vs $59.94B consensus and raised adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $2.15 to $2.35 vs $2.21 consensus. 
  • Comment: Pfizer exceeded first-quarter expectations and raised its annual profit forecast, driven by robust demand for its Covid antiviral treatment and vaccine, as well as cost-cutting measures. With adjusted earnings per share expected to range from US$2.15 to US$2.35 in FY24, up from previous estimates, Pfizer’s strategic moves, including the acquisition of cancer drugmaker Seagen and a substantial cost-cutting plan, have reduced its reliance on Covid vaccine sales. Revenue from Comirnaty remains steady, and Pfizer projects US$8bn in revenue from its Covid-19 vaccine Comirnaty and anti-viral treatment Paxlovid for FY24. With continued cost reductions and increased demand for its Covid-related products, Pfizer’s growth trajectory appears promising. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $26 to $30. Positive Outlook.  

辉瑞(PFE)  

  • 24财年第一季营收：149亿美元，同比跌幅19.5%，超预期9.8亿美元 
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.82美元，超预期0.31美元 
  • 24财年指引：到2024年底，该公司有望实现至少40亿美元的净成本节约。重申24财年收入预期为585亿至615亿美元，而市场预期为599.4亿美元，并将调整后摊薄每股收益预期上调至2.15至2.35美元，而市场预期为2.21美元。 
  • 短评：辉瑞第一季度业绩超出预期，并上调了年度利润预期，这得益于市场对其抗新冠病毒药物和疫苗的强劲需求，以及削减成本措施。辉瑞调整后每股收益预计将在2.15美元至2.35美元之间，高于此前的预期，辉瑞的战略举措，包括收购癌症药物制造商Seagen和大幅削减成本计划，减少了对新冠疫苗销售的依赖。Comirnaty的收入保持稳定，辉瑞预计其Covid-19疫苗Comirnaty和抗病毒治疗药物Paxlovid在24财年的收入将达到80亿美元。随着成本的持续降低和对其冠状病毒相关产品需求的增加，辉瑞的增长轨迹似乎充满希望。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：26美至30美元。积极前景。 

Mastercard Inc. (MA) 

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $6.35B, +11.4% YoY, beat estimates by $10M 
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.31, beat estimates by $0.07 
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect net revenue to grow at the high end of a low double-digit range on a currency-neutral basis, excluding acquisitions. Operating expenses are expected to grow at the low end of a low double-digit range on a currency neutral basis, excluding acquisitions and special items. Expect non-GAAP tax rate of approximately 17%. 2Q24 Guidance: Expect YoY net revenue growth to be at the loa double-digit rage on a currency-neutral basis and operating expense growth to be at the low end of a low double-digit range YoY, excluding acquisitions and special items. Expect non-GAAP tax rate of approximately 17%. 
  • Comment: Mastercard reported first-quarter profit that surpassed Wall Street expectations, driven by increased card spending despite rising borrowing costs and inflation. The payments processor earned $3.31 per share on an adjusted basis, exceeding estimates. The company’s cross-border spending volumes slowed in April, attributed to the timing of Easter. Net revenue rose 11% to US$6.35bn in the first quarter. Its CEO noted that the recent US$30bn settlement with Visa is not expected to have a significant impact on the company. Mastercard’s growth trajectory is likely to persist, fuelled by robust consumer spending, the ongoing transition to digital payment methods, and sustained demand for its value-added services and solutions. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $430 to $480. Neutral Outlook.  

万事达(MA)  

  • 24财年第一季营收：63.5亿美元，同比增幅11.4%，超预期1,000万美元 
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.31美元，超预期0.07美元 
  • 24财年指引：在汇率中性的基础上，不包括收购，预计净收入将在低两位数区间的高端增长。在汇率中性的基础上，不包括收购和特殊项目，运营费用预计将增长在两位数范围的低端。预计Non-GAAP税率约为17%。24年第二季度指引：在货币中性的基础上，预计同比净收入增长将达到两位数，营业费用增长将处于两位数范围的低端，不包括收购和特殊项目。预计Non-GAAP税率约为17%。 
  • 短评：万事达卡公布第一季获利超过华尔街预期，受信用卡支出增加推动，尽管借贷成本和通胀上升。这家支付处理商调整后的每股收益为3.31美元，超出预期。该公司的跨境支出在4月份放缓，原因是恰逢复活节。第一季度净收入增长11%，达到63.5亿美元。该公司首席执行官指出，最近与Visa达成的300亿美元和解协议预计不会对公司产生重大影响。在强劲的消费者支出、向数字支付方式的持续过渡以及对其增值服务和解决方案的持续需求的推动下，万事达卡的增长轨迹可能会持续下去。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：430美至480美元。中性前景。 

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) 

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $2.19B, +20% YoY, miss estimates by $50mn 
  • 1Q24 GAAP EPS: $0.04  
  • 1Q24 Adjusted EPS: $0.16, beat estimates by $0.05 
  • FY24 Guidance: Record bookings during the Q1 drove a record booked position for the next twelve months. Expect full year net yield guidance on a constant currency basis increased 100 basis points from the prior guidance to approximately 6.4% from 5.4%. Adjusted EBITDA guidance increased $50M from the prior guidance to approximately $2.25B from $2.20B. Net Income guidance increased $45M from prior guidance to $680M from $635M, and Adjusted EPS guidance increased $0.09 from prior guidance to $1.32 from $1.23. 
  • Comment: Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings reported quarterly revenue of $2.19 billion, slightly below expectations, but earned an adjusted profit of 16 cents per share, surpassing estimates of 11 cents per share. The company raised its full-year profit forecast, buoyed by strong demand for cruise vacations, particularly to destinations like the Caribbean. Cruise operators are experiencing record-high booking rates for cruises this year, allowing them to raise ticket prices. The company faces increased operating expenses due to labour, fuel, and raw materials costs, as well as rising expenses from dry dock days. Its CEO noted impressive momentum with record bookings in the first quarter and announced plans for eight new ships to meet growing demand. The company expects an adjusted profit of US$1.32 per share for FY24. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $15 to $20. Neutral Outlook.  

挪威游轮(NCLH)  

  • 24财年第一季营收：21.9亿美元，同比增幅20%，逊预期5,000万美元 
  • 24财年第一季GAAP每股盈利：0.04美元 
  • 24财年第一季调整后GAAP每股盈利：0.16美元，超预期0.05美元 
  • 24财年指引：第一季度创纪录的预订量推动了未来12个月的创纪录预订量。按固定汇率计算的全年净收益率预期从之前的5.4%上调100个基点至6.4%左右。调整后的EBITDA指引比先前的指引增加了5000万美元，从2.2亿美元增加到约22.5亿美元。净收入指导从先前的指导增加了4500万美元，从6.35亿美元增加到6.8亿美元，调整后的每股收益指导从先前的指导增加了0.09美元，从1.23美元增加到1.32美元。 
  • 短评：挪威邮轮控股公司公布季度收入为21.9亿美元，略低于预期，但调整后每股利润为16美分，超过每股11美分的预期。该公司上调了全年利润预期，这得益于对邮轮度假的强劲需求，尤其是前往加勒比海等目的地的需求。游轮运营商今年的游轮预订率创历史新高，这使得他们能够提高票价。由于劳动力、燃料和原材料成本的增加，以及干船坞日的费用增加，该公司面临着运营费用的增加。该公司首席执行官指出，第一季度的预订势头令人印象深刻，并宣布计划建造8艘新船，以满足不断增长的需求。公司预计24财年调整后每股利润为1.32美元。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：15美至20美元。中性前景。 

Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) 

  • 3Q24 Revenue: $3.94B, +4.8% YoY, beat estimates by $30M 
  • 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.97, beat estimates by $0.47 
  • 4Q24 Guidance: Expect diluted net earnings per common share to be between $0.11 and $0.22, net sales to increase between 5% to 9% YoY and adjusted EPS to be $0.18 and $0.28 per share. FY24 Guidance: Expect sales to be down 2% to 3% and non-GAAP EPS of $2.14 to $2.24. 
  • Comment: Despite beating third-quarter expectations and seeing signs of recovery in the US, Estee Lauder remains cautious about its sales outlook, expecting a slight decline in organic sales for the year. The company lowered its annual organic sales forecast due to ongoing softness in China’s prestige beauty market but raised its profit projections driven by strong demand for luxury items in the US and Asia-Pacific regions. It noted improved demand in China and Asia-Pacific travel retail, indicating consumer willingness to spend on affordable luxury items like fragrances and makeup. Despite witnessing progress in total Chinese consumer consumption and experiencing higher demand in the US and Asia-Pacific regions, Estee Lauder’s management has chosen a conservative forecast in light of current macroeconomic conditions. This cautious approach suggests uncertainty regarding its performance for the remaining quarter. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $115 to $150. Neutral Outlook.  

雅诗兰黛(EL)  

  • 24财年第三季营收：39.4亿美元，同比增幅4.8%，超预期3,000万美元 
  • 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.97美元，超预期0.47美元 
  • 24财年第四季指引：预计摊薄后每股普通股净收益将在0.11美元至0.22美元之间，净销售额将同比增长5%至9%，调整后每股收益将在0.18美元至0.28美元之间。24财年指引：预计销售额下降2%至3%，Non-GAAP每股收益为2.14美元至2.24美元。 
  • 短评：尽管第三季度业绩超出预期，美国市场也出现复苏迹象，但雅诗兰黛对其销售前景仍持谨慎态度，预计今年有机销售额将略有下降。由于中国高端美容市场持续疲软，该公司下调了年度有机销售预测，但由于美国和亚太地区对奢侈品的强劲需求，该公司上调了利润预测。报告指出，中国和亚太地区旅游零售需求有所改善，表明消费者愿意在香水和化妆品等负担得起的奢侈品上花钱。尽管见证了中国消费者消费总量的增长，以及美国和亚太地区需求的增加，但鉴于当前的宏观经济形势，雅诗兰黛管理层选择了保守的预测。这种谨慎的态度表明，该公司在剩余季度的表现存在不确定性。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：115美至150美元。中性前景。 

Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) 

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $9.39B, +1.3% YoY, beat estimates by $40M 
  • 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.44, beat estimates by $0.12 
  • 3Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue to be in the range of $8.8B to $9.6B vs $9.05B consensus and non-GAAP EPS of $2.15 to $2.35 vs $2.16 consensus. 
  • Comment: Qualcomm Inc delivered second quarter results which surpassed analysts’ estimates. Its chip, licensing, automotive and internet-of-things chip revenues showed growth, amounting to US$8.03bn, US$1.32bn, US$603mn and US$1.24bn respectively, higher than estimates. Qualcomm’s mobile handsets also generated US$6.18bn in sales slightly less than estimates of US$6.23bn. The company anticipates higher-than-expected quarterly sales and adjusted profit, driven by increased sales of AI-enabled chips in Android smartphones. The recovery of China’s Android market, particularly towards higher-priced devices accommodating AI features, has boosted Qualcomm’s sales to Chinese smartphone makers by 40% in the first half of the fiscal year. Despite competition from Huawei, Qualcomm benefits from the trend towards more capable devices and remains the world’s biggest supplier of chips for smartphones. The company’s optimistic third-quarter forecast beats analyst estimates, driven by strong demand for smartphones and AI-driven features. Additionally, Qualcomm aims to release chips for laptops, challenging Apple’s dominance. Qualcomm’s robust performance across all product segments, particularly in automotive and IoT chips, is expected to continue in the current quarter. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $160 to $180. Positive Outlook.  

高通(QCOM)  

  • 24财年第二季营收：93.9亿美元，同比增幅1.3%，超预期4,000万美元 
  • 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.44美元，超预期0.12美元 
  • 24财年第三季指引：预计营收在88亿至96亿美元之间，而市场预期为90.5亿美元；Non-GAAP每股收益为2.15至2.35美元，而市场预期为2.16美元。 
  • 短评：高通公司公布的第二季度业绩超过了分析师的预期。其芯片、授权、汽车和物联网芯片收入均有所增长，分别达到80.3亿美元、13.2亿美元、6.03亿美元和12.4亿美元，高于预期。高通的手机销售额也达到61.8亿美元，略低于62.3亿美元的预期。该公司预计，受Android智能手机中支持人工智能的芯片销量增加的推动，季度销售额和调整后利润将高于预期。中国Android市场的复苏，特别是对具有人工智能功能的高价设备的复苏，推动高通在本财年上半年对中国智能手机制造商的销售额增长了40%。尽管有来自华为的竞争，但高通受益于设备功能更强大的趋势，目前仍是全球最大的智能手机芯片供应商。由于智能手机和人工智能驱动功能的强劲需求，该公司乐观的第三季度预测超出了分析师的预期。此外，高通还打算发布笔记本电脑芯片，挑战苹果的主导地位。高通在所有产品领域的强劲表现，特别是在汽车和物联网芯片方面，预计将在本季度继续保持。24财年第三季度建议交易区间：160美至180美元。积极前景。 

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