KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 19 July 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Mosaic Co. (MOS US)

  • Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with constructive volume. 
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 37, Target 41, Stop 35

Nutrien Ltd. (NTR US)

  • Shares closed above the 50dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 62, Target 68, Stop 59

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Uni-Asia Group Ltd (UAG SP)

  • Shares closed at a two-month high above the 50dEMA, with an incline in volume.
  • Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.93, Target 0.97, Stop 0.91

Seatrium Ltd (STM SP)

  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA. 
  • MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 0.142 Target 0.151, Stop 0.137

First Tractor Co. Ltd. (38 HK)

  • Shares closed above the 200dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA and 200dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 3.90, Target 4.20, Stop 3.75

Sany Heavy Equipment International Holdings Co. (631 HK)

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with constructive volume.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 10.7, Target 11.3, Stop 10.4

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Bank of America Corp (BAC) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $25.2B, +2.9% YoY, beat estimates by $260M
  • 2Q23 GAAP EPS: $0.88, beat estimates by $0.05
  • FY23 Guidance: Net interest income (NII) to increase 8% in FY23.
  • Comment: Bank of America’s 2Q23 profits exceeded expectations, driven by higher customer loan payments and robust performance in investment banking and trading. Though facing challenges with net interest margins due to clients seeking higher yields, the bank’s diversified businesses and cost discipline helped offset some of the pressures. Notably, investment banking and trading performed exceptionally well, with net income surging 76% and sales and trading revenue rising by 3%. However, the bank accounted for potential credit losses and dealt with litigation expenses due to recent customer-related fines. Overall, given the positive job market and potential for further rate increases, Bank of America is projected to maintain strong net interest income potential. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $30 to $33. Positive Outlook.

美国银行 (BAC)

  • 23财年第二季营收：252亿美元, 同比增幅2.9%，超预期2.6亿美元  
  • 23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：0.88美元，超预期0.05美元  
  • 23财年指引：净利息收入(NII)将在23财年增长8%。
  • 短评：美国银行第二季度利润超出预期，主要受客户贷款支付增加以及投资银行和交易业务表现强劲的推动。尽管由于客户寻求更高的收益率而面临净息差的挑战，但该行的多元化业务和成本控制帮助抵消了部分压力。值得注意的是，投资银行和交易业务表现异常出色，净利润飙升76%，销售和交易收入增长3%。不过，该银行计入了潜在的信贷损失，并处理了最近因客户相关罚款而产生的诉讼费用。总体而言，鉴于就业市场向好以及进一步加息的可能性，预计美国银行将保持强劲的净利息收入潜力。第三季度建议交易区间：30美元至33美元。积极前景。

Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $4.66B, -8.4% YoY, beat estimates by $50M
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.75, beat estimates by $0.04
  • FY23 Guidance: The company highlights that the deceleration in the daily pace of cash outflows will continue and inflect before the end of 2023, unlocking growth in client cash held on the balance sheet.
  • Comment: The company saw high pressure arising from bank deposit outflows as customers moves their uninvested cash into higher-paying investment alternatives. The company’s revenue decline was mainly attributed to the company’s reliance on supplemental funding to compensate for cash sorting but believes that the peak of these borrowings has passed. This serves as positive news for the company’s investors, leading to a surge in stock price after earnings. However, with the Federal Reserve set to hike rates in July, more customers are more likely to shift their idles funds within the company into other investment options with higher interest rates. The company, which is known for its brokerage platform, is also likely to see a decline in trading volume as investors shift to safer alternatives like bonds and fixed deposits. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $56 to $65. Neutral Outlook.

嘉信理财 (SCHW)

  • 23财年第二季营收：46.6亿美元, 同比跌幅8.4%，超预期5,000万美元  
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.75美元，超预期0.04美元  
  • 23财年指引：每日现金流出速度的减速将继续并在2023年底之前发生变化，从而释放资产负债表上持有的客户现金的增长。
  • 短评：由于客户将未投资的现金转移到收益更高的投资选择，银行存款外流给该公司带来了巨大压力。该公司的收入下降主要归因于公司依赖补充资金来弥补现金分类，但相信这些借款的峰值已经过去。这对该公司的投资者来说是一个好消息，导致业绩后股价飙升。然而，随着美联储将在7月份加息，更多客户更有可能将公司内部的闲置资金转移到利率更高的其他投资选择上。而该知名的经纪平台也可能会看到交易量下降，由于投资者转向债券和固定存款转等其较安全的资产类别。第三季度建议交易区间：56美元至65美元。中性前景。

Morgan Stanley (MS) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $13.5B, +3.1% YoY, beat estimates by $380M
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.24, beats estimates by $0.03
  • FY23 Guidance: No specific guidance was provided. The company highlights that the more positive tone and activity seen later in the quarter across many parts of the company’s business is promising and positions Morgan Stanley well for the rest of 2023.
  • Comment: The rise in interest rates has helped to boost Morgan Stanley’s earnings,as the company is more reliant on its wealth management revenue. The company reported a wealth management revenue of $6.66 billion, rising 16% on higher interest income. The company’s equities trading business beats expectations, while fixed income business misses expectations. With the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates by another 25 bps, Morgan Stanley is likely to benefit from the higher interest rates to drive interest income for the company. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $90 to $105. Positive Outlook.

摩根斯坦利 (MS)

  • 23财年第二季营收：135亿美元, 同比增幅3.1%，超预期3.8亿美元  
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.24美元，超预期0.03美元  
  • 23财年指引：没有提供具体指引。公司强调过去一季度晚些时候许多业务领域出现了更积极的基调和活动。摩根士丹利在2023年剩余时间内保持良好状态。
  • 短评：利率上升帮助提振了摩根士丹利的盈利，因为该公司更加依赖其财富管理收入。该公司公布财富管理收入为66.6亿美元，由于利息收入增加而增长16%。该公司的股票交易业务好于预期，而固定收益业务不及预期。由于美联储有望再加息25个基点，摩根士丹利可能会受益于利率上升，从而推动公司的利息收入。第三季度建议交易区间：90美元至105美元。积极前景。

Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $1.0B, +52.4% YoY, miss estimates by $60M
  • 2Q23 GAAP EPS: $1.32, miss estimates by $0.08
  • FY23 Guidance: No guidance was provided.
  • Comment: The company commission revenue was unchanged at $322 million and customer trading volume was mixed across product types, wither stock volume dropping the most by 28%. However, customer accounts increased by 19% to 2.29M. With the Federal Reserve set to hike interest rates by another 25bps in July, retail customers are more likely to shift towards safer assets such as bonds and fixed deposits, and hence trading volume for the brokerage is expected to fall more in the near term. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $78 to $88. Neutral Outlook.

盈透证券 (IBKR)

  • 23财年第二季营收：10亿美元, 同比增幅52.4%，逊预期6,000万美元  
  • 23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：1.32美元，逊预期0.08美元  
  • 23财年指引：不提供指引。
  • 短评：公司佣金收入保持在3.22亿美元不变，不同产品类型的客户交易量参差不齐，其中成交量降幅最大为28%。然而，客户账户数增加了19%，达到229万。由于美国联邦储备委员会将在7月份再次加息25个基点，零售客户更有可能转向债券和定期存款等更安全的资产，因此该券商的交易量预计将在短期内进一步下降。23年第三季度建议交易区间：78至88美元。中性前景。