KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 16 August 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Home Depot, Inc. (HD US)

  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 330, Target 350, Stop 320

D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI US)

  • Shares closed at the 20dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 126, Target 132, Stop 123

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Frencken Group Ltd. (FRKN SP)

  • Shares closed at a high above the 50dEMA since June 23 with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 2dEMA line.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive. 
  • Long – Entry 0.90, Target 0.98 Stop 0.86

UMS Holdings Ltd. (UMSH SP)

  • Shares closed at a high above the 200dEMA since Apr 2023. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and 50dEMA. 
  • MACD just turned positive, and RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 1.10 Target 1.18, Stop 1.06

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China International Capital Corp Ltd (3908 HK)

  • Shares closed above the 20dEMA with rising volume.
  • RSI is constructive, while MACD is negative.
  • Long – Entry 16.4, Target 18.0, Stop 15.6

Huatai Securities Co Ltd (6886 HK)

  • Shares tested the 5dEMA and closed below it, above the 20dEMA with an increase in volume.
  • RSI is constructive, while MACD is negative.
  • Long – Entry 10.90, Target 11.60, Stop 10.55

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Home Depot Inc (HD)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $42.92B, -2.0% YoY, beat estimates by $690M.
  • 2Q23 GAAP EPS: $4.65, beat estimates by $0.20.
  • FY23 Guidance: Reaffirmed outlook: Sales and comparable sales to decline between 2% and 5% compared to fiscal 2022; Operating margin rate to be between 14.3% and 14.0%; Tax rate of approximately 24.5%; Interest expense of approximately $1.8 billion; Diluted earnings-per-share-percent-decline between 7% and 13% compared to fiscal 2022.
  • Comment: Home Depot reported better-than-expected quarterly results, with comparable sales falling 2%, smaller than expectations for a 3.54% drop. The results were driven by Americans’ steady spending on small-scale projects around their homes, even as they sharply cut back on larger remodeling and renovation. However, there are still some concerns about the housing market and consumer spending, as big-ticket transactions remained under pressure. The recent US retail sales rose 0.7% in July, beating expectations, showing that consumers are still spending despite rising inflation, but there are some headwinds for the consumer sector, such as rising delinquencies and debt service costs. The company maintaining its annual forecasts after cutting them in May suggests that it remains confident in its sales for the second half of 2023.  3Q23 recommended trading range: $320 to $340. Neutral Outlook.

家得宝 (HD)

  • 23财年第二季营收：429.2亿美元, 同比跌幅2%，超预期6.9亿美元 
  • 23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：4.65美元，超预期0.20美元  
  • 23财年指引：重申预期与2022财年相比，销售额和可比销售额将下降2%至5%；营业利润率在14.3%至14.0%之间；税率约为24.5%；利息支出约18亿美元；与2022财年相比，摊薄后每股收益下降7%至13%。
  • 短评：家得宝公布的季度业绩好于预期，同店销售额下降2%，低于3.54%的预期降幅。这一结果是由美国人在家庭周边小型项目上的稳定支出推动的，尽管他们大幅削减了大型改造和装修。不过，由于大额交易仍面临压力，对楼市和消费者支出仍有一些担忧。最近的美国7月份零售销售增长0.7%，超出预期，表明尽管通货膨胀上升，消费者仍在消费，但消费部门面临一些不利因素，例如违约率和偿债成本上升。该公司在5月份下调年度预测后，仍维持其年度预测，这表明它对2023年下半年的销售仍然充满信心。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：320美元至340美元。中性前景。

Sea Ltd (SE)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $3.1B, +5.2% YoY, miss estimates by $150M.
  • 2Q23 GAAP EPS: $0.54, beat estimates by $0.08.
  • 3Q23 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  • Comment: Sea Ltd posted mixed results with revenue growing 5.2% YoY, below estimates. However, EPS was higher than expectations, signaling gains from the cost measures. Sea’s e-commerce business Shopee, which contributes about two-thirds to the group’s top-line, grew about nearly 21% to $2.1bn. It was below the consensus estimate of $2.25bn, despite Sea posting 10% sequential growth in active buyers in the second quarter and raising platform commissions earlier this year. The company has plans to pivot its strategy and boost investments in its core e-commerce business Shopee in the coming quarter. This may instead lead to losses in the coming quarters as the company faces tepid consumer spending amid challenging competition and macroeconomic outlook.  3Q23 recommended trading range: $40 to $45. Negative Outlook.

东海集团 (SE)

  • 23财年第二季营收：31.0亿美元, 同比增幅5.2%，逊预期1.5亿美元 
  • 23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：0.54美元，超预期0.08美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：不提供指引。
  • 短评：公司公布了喜忧参半的业绩，收入同比增长5.2%，低于预期。然而，每股收益高于预期，表明成本措施带来了收益。公司的电子商务业务Shopee增长近21%，至21亿美元。Shopee为该集团贡献了约三分之二的营收。尽管公司在第二季度活跃买家数量连续增长10%，并在今年早些时候提高了平台佣金，但这一数字仍低于22.5亿美元的普遍预期。该公司计划调整战略，在未来一个季度增加对其核心电子商务业务Shopee的投资。这可能会导致未来几个季度的亏损，因为在充满挑战的竞争和宏观经济前景下，该公司面临着不温不火的消费者支出。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：40美元至45美元。负面前景。

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $1.01B, +5.5% YoY, beat estimates by $10M.
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPADS: $0.13, miss estimates by $0.01.
  • 3Q23 Guidance: Revenue will see a low to mid-teens percentage YoY decline in 3Q23 compared to 3Q22. Profit for FY23 is expected to continue to grow.
  • Comment: Tencent Music Entertainment Group’s revenue rose 5.5% YoY in the latest quarter, driven by a rise in user subscriptions. However, the company warned that future revenue will shrink as tighter live-streaming controls come into effect. Tencent Music is in the process of making adjustments to its live-streaming business to mitigate potential risks the platform may face in the future and is making adjustments to certain live-streaming functions and adopting more stringent compliant procedures which are necessary for the healthy development of the platform in the long run. With consumer sentiment improving slightly, the company is making an effort to release more original content to fight off competition. Subscriber growth has also accelerated thanks to promotional discounts and users’ willingness to pay for premium features such as sound quality. These may help to partially offset the forecasted revenue reduction in the coming quarters. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $5.0 to $7.0. Neutral Outlook.

腾讯音乐 (TME)

  • 23财年第二季营收：10.1亿美元, 同比增幅5.5%，超预期1,000万美元 
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.13美元，逊预期0.01美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：与22年第三季度相比，23年第三季度的营收将同比下降15%至15%。预计23财年利润将继续增长。
  • 短评：受用户订阅量增长的推动，腾讯音乐最近一个季度的营收同比增长5.5%。然而，该公司警告说，随着更严格的直播控制生效，未来的收入将会萎缩。腾讯音乐正在对其直播业务进行调整，以降低平台未来可能面临的潜在风险，并正在对某些直播功能进行调整，并采取更严格的合规程序，这对于平台的长期健康发展是必要的。随着消费者信心略有好转，该公司正在努力发布更多原创内容，以应对竞争。由于促销折扣和用户愿意为音质等高级功能付费，订户增长也加快了。这些可能有助于部分抵消未来几个季度预计的收入减少。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：5.0美元至7.0美元。中性前景。

Nu Holdings Ltd (NU)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $1.9B, +61.2% YoY, beat estimates by $120M.
  • 2Q23 GAAP EPS: $0.05, beat estimates by $0.02.
  • 3Q23 Guidance: No guidance provided. 
  • Comment: Nu Holdings’ reported strong 2Q23 earnings and revenue. Purchase volume, average revenue per customer, and deposits all increased, while the average cost per customer declined slightly. The company’s focus on increasing purchase volume, average revenue per customer, deposits, expanding internationally and increasing its product portfolio is paying off, leading adjusted net income to beat expectations. Nu Holdings continues to be well-positioned to capitalise on the low monthly average cost to serve per active customer alongside the growing demand for digital banking services in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia. However, with new entrants in the market, its growth may be slower than previously anticipated. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $7.58 to $9.0. Positive Outlook.

Nu Holdings (NU)

  • 23财年第二季营收：19.0亿美元, 同比增幅61.2%，超预期1.2亿美元 
  • 23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：0.05美元，超预期0.02美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：不提供指引。
  • 短评：Nu Holdings公布了强劲的第二季度收益和收入。购买量、每客户平均收入和存款均有所增加，而每客户平均成本略有下降。该公司专注于增加购买量、每位客户的平均收入、存款、国际扩张和增加其产品组合，这些都取得了成效，导致调整后的净收入超出预期。Nu Holdings继续处于有利地位，可以利用巴西、墨西哥和哥伦比亚对数字银行服务不断增长的需求，为每位活跃客户提供低月平均服务成本。然而，随着市场的新进入者，其增长可能比先前预期的要慢。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：7.5美元至9.0美元。积极前景。

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