4Q24 Revenue: $10.3B, +4.0% YoY, beat estimates by $40M
4Q24 GAAP EPS: $0.87, miss estimates by $0.63
4Q24 Dividend: Dollar General declares $0.59/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous; Forward yield 3.15%; Payable April 22; for shareholders of record April 8; ex-div April 8.
FY25 Guidance: Expect net sales growth of 3.4% to 4.4%, midpoint of 3.9% below consensus of 4.14%; Expect same-store sales growth of 1.2% to 2.2%, midpoint of 1.7% below consensus of 1.76%; Expect GAAP EPS to be between $5.10 to $5.80, midpoint of $5.45 below consensus of $5.85; Expect effective tax rate to be 23.50%; Expect capex to be between $1.3bn to $1.4bn, midpoint of $1.35bn below consensus of $1.41bn.
Comment: Dollar General reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter sales, but its profits fell short of estimates due to costs associated with a review of the retailer’s store portfolio. Earnings per share for Q4 2024 dropped more than 50% to 87 cents, which includes an 81-cent impairment charge related to store closures. Net sales grew 4.5% to $10.3 billion, driven by increased spending on essential items. Same-store sales rose by 1.2%, with growth entirely attributed to consumables like food and personal care products. This suggests that Dollar General’s customers are still grappling with higher prices and economic uncertainty. Consumers continue to report worsened financial conditions, impacted by persistent inflation. Looking ahead, the company expects an increase in “trade-down” behaviour, with more middle- and upper-income consumers turning to Dollar General for bargains. The company also plans to close 96 Dollar General stores and 45 pOpshelf stores, while converting six pOpshelf locations into Dollar General stores during the first quarter. 1Q25recommended trading range: $74 to $86. Neutral Outlook.
4Q24 Revenue: $456.8M, -1.5% YoY, beat estimates by $5.04M
4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.40 beat estimates by $0.01
FY25 Guidance: No guidance provided.
Dividend Distribution: Board declared a cash dividend of $0.82 per ADS and approved an annual dividend payout of $200M for FY24.
Comment: Weibo Corporation reported a slight decline in Q4 revenue, down 1.5% YoY to US$456.83mn, but still exceeding analyst expectations of US$437.87mn. Adjusted EPS came in at US$0.40, slightly beating the US$0.39 forecast. Advertising and marketing revenues fell 4% to US$385.9mn, mainly due to weakness in the online gaming sector, while value-added services (VAS) revenue grew 18% to US$71.0mn, driven by membership services and game-related revenues. Monthly active users reached 590 million, with daily active users increasing to 260 million. The company maintained a solid financial position with US$2.4bn in cash and equivalents and introduced a new dividend policy with a US$200mn payout for FY24. Looking ahead, Weibo plans to expand its AI integration efforts to enhance advertising monetization and user engagement, supported by a strong balance sheet. Despite headwinds in the online gaming sector, we anticipate continued ad performance in key industries, driven by government subsidies and shifting consumer trends. 1Q25recommended trading range: $10 to $11. Neutral Outlook.
4Q24 Revenue: $570.6M, +87.8% YoY, beat estimates by $66.23M
4Q24 GAAP EPS: $1.72 beat estimates by $0.29
FY25 Guidance: No revenue guidance provided. Plans to acquire 800,000 new paying clients, launch crypto trading in the U.S and maintain its client acquisition cost between HKD 2,500 and HKD 3,000.
Comment: Futu Holdings reported a strong Q4, surpassing analyst expectations with EPS of US$1.72 and revenue of US$570.6mn, marking an 87.8% YoY increase. The company’s net income grew 113% to RMB 1.9bn, with an improved operating margin of 50%. Futu continued its expansion with over 25 million global users and 2.41 million paying clients, driving a 53% YoY increase in total client assets to US$95.7bn. Trading volumes surged, with US stock trading volume up 195% YoY to over US$267bn, and strong momentum in crypto trading across Singapore and Hong Kong. The company aims to add 800,000 new paying clients in 2025 and expand crypto trading in the U.S., reinforcing its market leadership through strategic initiatives, partnerships, and product innovation. While regulatory risks and market competition remain key challenges, Futu’s strong financial position, robust trading volumes, and commitment to improving user experience position it for continued growth in 2025. 1Q25recommended trading range: $107 to $120. Positive Outlook.
4Q25 Revenue: $776.25M, +9.0% YoY, beat estimates by $14.61M
4Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.86 beat estimates by $0.01
1Q26 Guidance: Expect revenue of $745.0M-$749.0M versus the analyst consensus of $755.7M.
FY26 Guidance: Expect revenue of $3.13B-$3.14B versus the analyst consensus of $3.15B.
Comment: Docusign reported strong financial results for Q4 and FY24, with total revenue reaching US$776.3M and US$2.98bn respectively. Subscription revenue rose to US$2.90bn, while billings increased by 7% to US$3.1bn. The company demonstrated improved profitability, with GAAP net income per diluted share surging to US$5.08 from US$0.36 the previous year. Docusign also repurchased US$683.5 million in common stock, significantly up from US$145.5mn in FY24. The launch of its AI-powered Intelligent Agreement Management (IAM) platform has gained strong traction, with global expansion and new product integrations, including Docusign + Microsoft Power Automate, AI-Assisted Review for contract lifecycle management (CLM), and enhanced identity verification tools. However, the company’s FY26 revenue forecast of US$3.13bn to US$3.14bn is slightly below analyst expectations of US$3.15bn. Docusign is well-positioned for continued growth as it expands its AI-driven Intelligent Agreement Management platform and strengthens integrations with enterprise systems. While near-term revenue forecasts of US$745mn to US$749mn for Q1 are slightly below analyst expectations, the company’s focus on automation, security, and workflow optimization should drive long-term customer adoption. 1Q26recommended trading range: $78 to $86. Positive Outlook.
Docusign (DOCU)
25财年第四季营收：7.7625亿美元，同比增长9.0%，超出预期1461万美元。
25财年第四季Non-GAAP每股收益：0.86美元，超出预期0.01美元。
26财年第一季指引：预计营收在7.45亿美元至7.49亿美元之间，而分析师预期为7.557亿美元。
26财年全年指引：预计营收在31.3亿美元至31.4亿美元之间，而分析师预期为31.5亿美元。
短评：Docusign公布了24财年第四季度和全年的强劲财务业绩，总营收分别达到7.763亿美元和29.8亿美元。订阅营收增长至29亿美元，账单增长7%至31亿美元。公司盈利能力显著提高，GAAP稀释后每股净利润从上一年的0.36美元飙升至5.08美元。Docusign还回购了6.835亿美元的普通股，远高于24财年的1.455亿美元。其人工智能驱动的智能协议管理(IAM)平台的推出受到了广泛关注，全球扩张和新产品集成不断推进，包括Docusign + Microsoft Power Automate、用于合同生命周期管理(CLM)的人工智能辅助审查以及增强的身份验证工具。然而，公司对26财年的营收预测为31.3亿美元至31.4亿美元，略低于分析师预期的31.5亿美元。Docusign在扩展其人工智能驱动的智能协议管理平台并加强与企业系统的集成方面处于有利地位，有望实现持续增长。尽管第一季度营收预测7.45亿美元至7.49亿美元略低于分析师预期，但公司对自动化、安全性和工作流程优化的关注应能推动长期客户采用。26财年第一季建议交易区间：78美元至86美元。积极前景。
Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA)
4Q24 Revenue: $3.49B, -1.9% YoY, beat estimates by $10M
4Q24 GAAP EPS: $8.46 beat estimates by $1.31
FY25 Guidance: Expect revenue of $11.5B and $11.6B, compared with analysts’ estimates of $11.67B and profit per share to be between $22.50 and $22.90, compared with expectations of $23.47.
Comment: Ulta Beauty exceeded sales and profit expectations for the fourth quarter, driven by strong holiday shopping. Unlike competitors such as Coty and L’Oréal, which saw weaker U.S. mass beauty market growth, Ulta benefited from strategic discounts during the Thanksgiving period. While net sales declined 1.9% to US$3.49bn, it still surpassed estimates, and profit per share of US$8.46 exceeded the expected US$7.12. The company recently appointed Kecia Steelman as its new CEO, succeeding Dave Kimbell. However, Ulta’s annual sales and profit forecasts fell short of expectations, citing potential price increases due to trade policies. It projects annual sales of US$11.5bn to US$11.6bn and profit per share of US$22.50 to US$22.90, both below analysts’ estimates. Despite near-term macroeconomic headwinds and evolving trade policies that may impact pricing, the company is expected to drive sustained customer engagement through strategic promotions, exclusive brand partnerships, and investments in its loyalty program. 1Q25recommended trading range: $310 to $350. Neutral Outlook.
