Technical Analysis – 12 June 2024

Nio Inc. (NIO)

1Q24 Revenue: $1.37B, -7.2% YoY, miss estimates by $70M
1Q24 Non-GAAP EPADS: –$0.33, beat estimates by $0.06
2Q24 Guidance: Expect deliveries of vehicles to be between 54,000 and 56,000 units, representing an increase of approx 129.6% to 138.1% YoY; Total revenues to be between RMB16,587mn (US$$2,297mn) and RMB17,135mn (US$2,373mn) vs US$1.99bn consensus, representing an increase of approximate 89.1% to 95.3% YoY.
Comment: Nio reported mixed results, with lower vehicle deliveries and revenue. First-quarter sales decreased by 7% YoY, and vehicle deliveries, totaling 30,053, were down 3% YoY. Price competition has been a significant issue for all EV makers in China. However, Nio’s sales have recently improved, with 36,164 vehicles delivered in April and May, up about 180% YoY, as consumers recognize the competitive edge of Nio’s vehicles. The company provided optimistic guidance for Q2 2024, although revenue growth is expected to lag behind unit sales growth, indicating ongoing price competition challenges. This hampers Nio’s profitability, as lower prices cannot offset rising production costs. Recently, Nio announced it received regulatory approval to build a third factory in China, boosting its total production capacity to one million cars and bringing it closer to Tesla’s Shanghai plant. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $4.0 to $6.0. Neutral Outlook.

蔚来汽车 (NIO)

24财年第一季营收：13.7亿美元，同比跌幅7.2%，逊预期7,000万美元
24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.33美元，超预期0.06美元
24财年第二季指引：预计汽车交付量将在5.4万至5.6万辆之间，同比增长约129.6%至138.1%；总收入将在165.87亿元人民币（22.97亿美元）至171.35亿元人民币（23.73亿美元）之间，而市场预期为19.9亿美元，同比增长约89.1%至95.3%。
短评：蔚来汽车公布的业绩喜忧参半，汽车交付量和收入均有所下降。第一季度销量同比下降7%，汽车交付量为30,053辆，同比下降3%。价格竞争一直是中国所有电动汽车制造商面临的一个重要问题。不过，随着消费者认识到蔚来汽车的竞争优势，蔚来汽车的销量最近有所改善，4月和5月共交付36,164辆汽车，同比增长约180%。该公司对2024年第二季度提供了乐观的指导，尽管预计收入增长将落后于单位销售增长，这表明价格竞争仍在继续。这阻碍了蔚来的盈利能力，因为较低的价格无法抵消不断上升的生产成本。最近，蔚来汽车宣布已获得监管机构批准，将在中国建立第三家工厂，将其总产能提高到100万辆，并使其更接近特斯拉的上海工厂。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：4.0美至6.0美元。中性前景。