KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 07 August 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META US)

  • Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 490 Target 530, Stop 470

Samsara, Inc. (IOT US)

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 36.5, Target 40.5, Stop 34.5

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Sheng Siong Group Ltd. (SSG SP)

  • Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA with a surge in volume. 20dEMA recently crossed the 50dEMA and the 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 1.53, Target 1.61, Stop 1.49

Centurion Corp. (CENT SP)

  • Shares closed higher near its 52-week high.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 0.610 Target 0.650, Stop 0.590

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Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)

  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA.
  • RSI is constructive and MACD turned positive.
  • Long – Entry 40.4, Target 43.8, Stop 38.7

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Co Ltd (3692 HK)

  • Shares closed above the 5wEMA.
  • RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
  • Long – Entry 17.6, Target 19.0, Stop 16.9

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Uber Technologies Inc (UBER)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $10.7B, +15.9% YoY, beat estimates by $120M
  • 2Q24 GAAP EPS: $0.47, beat estimates by $0.16
  • 3Q24 Guidance: Expect gross booking of $40.25bn to $41.75bn, representing 18% to 23% YoY growth on a constant currency basis, compared to a consensus of $41.18bn; Expect adjusted EBITDA of $1.58bn to $1.68bn, representing a 45% to 54% YoY growth.
  • Comment: Uber exceeded expectations by returning to profitability, driven by strong growth in its ride-share and food-delivery segments. The company’s shift towards profitability has led to higher prices for rides and deliveries, boosting revenue. Additionally, Uber’s significant investment in in-app advertising, a high-margin business, has contributed to its financial success. The mobility unit reported a 23% increase in gross bookings, reaching $20.6 billion, and the number of monthly active platform consumers (MAPCs) rose to 156 million in the second quarter of 2024, with 2.77 billion trips completed via the platform. Uber recently announced partnerships with Instacart in May, enhancing its food delivery services, and with BYD in July, introducing around 100,000 electric vehicles for Uber drivers in Europe and Latin America. Despite an uncertain macroeconomic outlook, management remains optimistic about Uber’s growth prospects, anticipating that better rate cut expectations and improving consumer sentiment will further support the company’s business. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $60 to $75. Positive Outlook.

优步 (UBER)

  • 24财年第二季营收：107亿美元，同比增幅15.9%，超预期1.2亿美元
  • 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.47美元，超预期0.16美元
  • 24财年第三季指引：预计总预订额为402.5亿美元至417.5亿美元，按固定汇率计算，同比增长18%至23%，而市场预期为418.8亿美元；预计调整后的EBITDA为15.8亿至16.8亿美元，同比增长45%至54%。
  • 短评：在拼车和送餐业务强劲增长的推动下，优步(Uber)恢复盈利，超出了预期。该公司向盈利的转变导致了乘车和送货价格的上涨，从而提高了收入。此外，优步在应用内广告这一高利润业务上的大量投资也为其财务上的成功做出了贡献。出行部门报告称，总预订量增长了23%，达到206亿美元，而在2024年第二季度，月度平台活跃消费者数量上升至1.56亿，通过该平台完成了27.7亿次出行。优步最近于5月宣布与Instacart合作，加强其食品配送服务，并于7月与比亚迪合作，在欧洲和拉丁美洲为优步司机推出约10万辆电动汽车。尽管宏观经济前景不明朗，但管理层仍对优步的增长前景持乐观态度，预计更好的降息预期和改善的消费者信心将进一步支持公司的业务。24年第三季度建议交易区间：60至75美元。积极前景。

Caterpillar Inc (CAT)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $16.69B, -3.5% YoY, beat estimates by $20M
  • 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $5.99, beat estimates by $0.45
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect revenue to be “slightly lower” than 2023, compared with previous guidance that revenue would be “broadly similar.”; Expect a “slight reduction” in machine dealer inventory after seeing an increase in 2023. Maintained expected CAPEX at $2bn to $2.5bn; Expect restructuring costs of around $450mn compared with previous guidance of between $300mn to $450mn.
  • Comment: Caterpillar reported better-than-expected results, driven by robust performance in its energy and transportation business and improved profit margins due to higher prices and reduced manufacturing costs. The company also benefitted from a global AI boom, with sales from the company’s engine and transportation business rising 2% in 2Q24 on continued strong demand for electric generators for new data centers. However, the company lowered its fiscal year 2024 guidance, anticipating slightly lower sales compared to 2023. This is attributed to dealers expected to reduce the size of their equipment rental fleets in the second half of 2024. Additionally, higher interest rates are affecting the amount of equipment dealers are willing to purchase for their rental operations, as the current interest rate environment has decreased demand for machinery and other durable goods while increasing borrowing costs for construction projects. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $300 to $350. Neutral Outlook.

卡特彼勒 (CAT)

  • 24财年第二季营收：169.9亿美元，同比跌幅3.5%，超预期2,000万美元
  • 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：5.99美元，超预期0.45美元
  • 24财年指引：预计收入将“略低于”2023年，而此前的预测是收入“大致相似”。预计机器经销商库存在2023年增加后将“略有减少”。维持20亿至25亿美元的预期资本支出；预计重组成本约为4.5亿美元，而之前的指引在3亿至4.5亿美元之间。
  • 短评：卡特彼勒公布的业绩好于预期，主要得益于其能源和运输业务的强劲表现，以及价格上涨和制造成本降低带来的利润率提高。该公司还受益于全球人工智能热潮，由于新数据中心对发电机的持续强劲需求，该公司发动机和运输业务的销售额在24年第二季度增长了2%。然而，该公司下调了2024财年的预期，预计销售额将比2023财年略有下降。这是由于经销商预计将在2024年下半年减少设备租赁车队的规模。此外，由于当前的利率环境降低了对机械和其他耐用品的需求，同时增加了建筑项目的借贷成本，较高的利率也影响了经销商愿意为其租赁业务购买的设备数量。24年第三季度建议交易区间：300至350美元。中性前景。

Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI)

  • 4Q24 Revenue: $5.31B, +143.6% YoY, beat estimates by $10M
  • 4Q24 GAAP EPS: $6.25, miss estimates by $1.56
  • 1Q25 Guidance: Expect net sales of $6.0bn to $7.0bn vs $5.45bn consensus; Expects non-GAAP net income per diluted share of $6.69 to $8.27 vs $7.58 consensus. FY25 Guidance: Expect net sales of $26.0bn to $30.0bn vs $14.94bn consensus.
  • Stock split: Board of directors authorized a 10-for-1 stock split, effective on October 1st.
  • Comment: SMCI reported mixed results, with revenue exceeding expectations but gross margin dropping to 11.2% from 17% a year ago and 15.5% in the third quarter of 2024. The decline in profitability is attributed to high production costs for servers equipped with the latest AI chips, resulting in lower profit per product despite record demand for new AI infrastructure. However, the company issued optimistic guidance for the first quarter and fiscal year 2025, citing its strong position to become the largest IT infrastructure company, driven by its technological leadership, including rack-scale DLC liquid cooling and its new Datacenter Building Block Solutions. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $500 to $750. Neutral Outlook.

超微电脑 (SMCI)

  • 24财年第四季营收：53.1亿美元，同比增幅143.6%，超预期1,000万美元
  • 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：6.25美元，逊预期1.56美元
  • 25财年第一季指引：预计净销售额为60亿至70亿美元，预期为54.5亿美元；预计Non-GAAP摊薄后每股净收入为6.69美元至8.27美元，而预期为7.58美元。25财年指引：预计净销售额260亿至300亿美元，市场预期为149.4亿美元。
  • 拆股：董事会批准了10比1的拆股，于10月1日生效。
  • 短评：公司报告的业绩好坏参半，收入超出预期，但毛利率从一年前的17%和2024年第三季度的15.5%降至11.2%。利润率下降的原因是，配备最新人工智能芯片的服务器的生产成本很高，尽管对新的人工智能基础设施的需求达到了创纪录的水平，但每件产品的利润却有所下降。然而，该公司对第一季度和2025财年发布了乐观的指引意见，称其凭借其技术领先地位，包括机架级DLC液体冷却和新的数据中心构建块解决方案，将成为最大的IT基础设施公司。25年第一季度建议交易区间：500至750美元。中性前景。

Airbnb Inc (ABNB)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $2.75B, +10.9% YoY, beat estimates by $10M
  • 2Q24 GAAP EPS: $0.86, miss estimates by $0.05
  • 3Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue to be between $3.67B to $3.73B, but also warned that it expects moderation in YoY growth in nights booked, relative to the current quarter. Additionally, it also cautioned that it is seeing shorter booking lead times globally and signs of slowing demand from US guests.
  • Comment: Airbnb delivered revenue of US$2.75bn for the quarter, slightly above the US$2.74bn estimate. However, it forecasted third-quarter revenue below estimates and warned of shorter booking windows due to economic uncertainty. Domestic travel in the US has been pressured as Americans worry about the economy. It saw continued growth across all regions compared to 2Q23, with Asia Pacific and Latin America growing 19% and 17% respectively in its nights and experiences booked. Airbnb’s quarterly profit was US$0.86 per share, below the expected US$0.92 per share. It expects third-quarter revenue between US$3.67bn and US$3.73bn, under the US$3.84bn estimate. The company noted shorter global booking lead times, reflecting consumer caution. Despite a 9% increase to 125.1mn nights and experiences booked, net income margin decreased to 20% from 26% a year ago. Despite improvements, including the removal of over 200,000 low-quality listings, Airbnb faces challenges with European governments cracking down on some of its listings and a short-term decline in travel demand. A turnaround in consumer spending may occur once economic confidence improves. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $90 to $125. Negative Outlook.

爱彼迎 (ABNB)

  • 24财年第二季营收：27.5亿美元，同比增幅10.9%，超预期1,000万美元
  • 24财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：0.86美元，逊预期0.05美元
  • 24财年第三季指引：预计收入将在36.7亿美元至37.3亿美元之间，但同时警告称，预计预订夜数的同比增长将相对于当前季度有所放缓。此外，该公司还警告称，全球预订前置时间正在缩短，美国客人的需求也有放缓的迹象。
  • 短评：爱彼迎本季度的收入为27.5亿美元，略高于27.4亿美元的预期。然而，该公司预计第三季度收入低于预期，并警告称，由于经济不确定性，预订窗口将缩短。由于美国人对经济感到担忧，美国国内旅游受到了压力。与23年第二季度相比，该公司在所有地区都保持了持续增长，亚太地区和拉丁美洲的住宿和体验预订分别增长了19%和17%。爱彼迎的季度利润为每股0.86美元，低于每股0.92美元的预期。该公司预计第三季度收入在36.7亿美元至37.3亿美元之间，低于38.4亿美元的预期。该公司指出，全球预订前置时间缩短，反映出消费者的谨慎态度。尽管预订晚数和体验数增长了9%，达到1.251亿晚，但净收入利润率却从一年前的26%降至20%。尽管爱彼迎做了一些改进，包括删除了20多万个低质量的房源，但它面临着欧洲政府打击部分房源和旅游需求短期下降的挑战。一旦经济信心改善，消费者支出可能出现好转。24年第三季度建议交易区间：90至125美元。负面前景。

Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $1.73B, +8.1% YoY, miss estimates by $10M
  • 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.12, miss estimates by $0.07
  • 3Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  • Dividend: Announce a cash dividend of $0.25 per share, payable on 30 August 2024 to stockholders of record as of 19 August 2024.
  • Comment: Despite second quarter revenue of US$1.73bn and earnings of US$1.12, falling short of analysts’ estimates, Wynn Resorts delivered a new second quarter record for adjusted property EBITDAR, reflecting continued strength throughout its business. The company’s overall operating revenue rose 8.1% YoY to US$1.73bn, with operating revenue at Wynn Palace, Wynn Macau, and Las Vegas rising US$79.7mn, US$35.7mn and US$50.6mn respectively, but a decline at Encore Boston Harbor of US$9.2mn. Net income was US$111.9mn, up from US$105.2mn the previous year, and adjusted property EBITDAR rose to US$571.7mn from US$524.5mn. Wynn Resort’s CEO highlighted continued business strength and investments, including progress on Wynn Al Marjan Island in the UAE, expected to open in 2027. Wynn ended the quarter with US$2.38bn in cash and US$11.03bn in total debt. The rebound in travel to gaming hubs has attracted a steady stream of visitors to Wynn Resorts’ Macau properties, with the highest revenue share coming from Wynn Palace and Wynn Macau. With worries of a slow-down in post-pandemic travel demand, we anticipate traffic and spending at these locations to be slightly impacted in the current quarter. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $65 to $85. Neutral Outlook.

永利度假村 (WYNN)

  • 24财年第二季营收：17.3亿美元，同比增幅8.1%，逊预期1,000万美元
  • 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.12美元，逊预期0.07美元
  • 24财年第三季指引：不提供指引。
  • 股息： 宣布每股0.25美元的现金股息，8月30日为付息日，8月19日为股东登记日。
  • 短评：尽管第二季度营收17.3亿美元，盈利1.12美元，低于分析师预期，但永利度假村第二季度调整后的房地产EBITDAR创下了新的纪录，反映出其整个业务的持续强劲。该公司的整体营业收入同比增长8.1%至17.3亿美元，其中永利皇宫，永利澳门和拉斯维加斯的营业收入分别增长7970万美元，3570万美元和5060万美元，但Encore Boston Harbor的营业收入下降了920万美元。净收入为1.119亿美元，高于上年的1.052亿美元，调整后的房地产EBITDAR从5.245亿美元上升至5.717亿美元。永利度假村的首席执行官强调了持续的业务实力和投资，包括阿联酋永利阿尔马尔詹岛的进展，预计将于2027年开业。该季度结束时，永利拥有23.8亿美元现金和110.3亿美元债务。彩中心旅游的反弹吸引了源源不断的游客前往永利度假村的澳门物业，其中永利皇宫和永利澳门的收入份额最高。由于担心疫情后旅行需求放缓，我们预计这些地点的交通和支出在本季度将受到轻微影响。24年第三季度建议交易区间：65至85美元。中性前景。