KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

25 March 2025: Futures Product Ideas

KGI Weekly Futures Update

SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures

Net Long/Short and Price Comparison

We highlight the key price levels that each participant switches their positions between net long and net short based on 2024 data.

2024

Financial Institution (FI)

Manage Money (MM)

Physicals

Others

Net Long

Below US$118/mt

Above US$118/mt

Below US$100/mt

NA

Net Short

Above US$118/mt

Below US$115/mt

Above US$100/mt

NA

Net-position WoW Change

Remarks

FI

+11.42

Increase for 3 consecutive weeks

MM

-5.56

Decline for 3 consecutive weeks

Physicals

-15.03

Retreat from largest increase since the start of the year

Others

+9.16

Increase for 2 consecutive weeks

Figure 1: Net-positions by participant segment and price comparison

A graph of different colored lines

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Source: SGX, KGI Research

Long/Short Traders Snapshot

  • Managed Money. The number of MM with long positions rebounded to 387 after declining for 2 straight weeks. Accordingly, the number of MM with short positions retreated slightly to 231 after rising to a 6-weeks high a week ago. Seasonally, More MMs are prone to long in 1HQ4 and 2HQ2, and there are more MMs with short positions in 1HQ2 and 1HQ3.

2024

2023

Long

Short

Long

Short

High

423

427

393

248

Low

176

131

154

83

Figure 2: Number of position holders iron ore futures

A graph of a graph of a chart of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Source: SGX, KGI Research

  • Physicals. The number of physicals with long positions increased for 2 straight weeks to 130, representing a high since mid-November 2024. Accordingly, the number of physicals with short positions increased for a week to 144, after a decline a week ago . Seasonally, more physicals are prone to being long in 1Q, and there are more physicals with short positions in Q4.

2024

2023

Long

Short

Long

Short

High

135

145

111

147

Low

77

107

68

96

Figure 3: Number of position holders iron ore futures

A graph of a number of people

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Source: SGX, KGI Research

  • Others. The number of others with long positions retreated for three consecutive weeks to 89, while the number of others with short positions rebounded to 82 after three consecutive weeks of decline.

2024

2023

Long

Short

Long

Short

High

131

131

134

152

Low

68

83

103

101

Figure 4: Number of position holders iron ore futures

A graph of different colored lines

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Source: SGX, KGI Research

SGX Baltic Panamax Time Charter Average Futures

We highlight the key price levels that each participants switches their positions between net long and net short based on 2024 data.

2024

Financial Institution (FI)

Manage Money (MM)

Physicals

Others

Net Long

NA

Above US$9,000/t

Below US$8,500/t

NA

Net Short

NA

Below US$9,000/t

Above US$9,500/t

NA

Net-position WoW Change

Remarks

FI

-0.10

Retreat from 2 consecutive weeks increase

MM

+0.10

Increase for 6 consecutive weeks

Physicals

-0.18

Decline for 6 consecutive weeks

Others

+0.18

Increase for 3 consecutive weeks

Figure 5: Net-positions by participant segment and price comparison

A graph of different colored lines

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Source: SGX, KGI Research

Long/Short Traders Snapshot

  • Managed Money. The number of MM with long positions increased slightly to 24, maintaining around the current level in March 2025. On the other hand, the number of MM with short positions increased for 2 consecutive weeks to 44 after 5 consecutive weeks of decline. Seasonally, More MM are prone to long in 1H, and there are more MM with short positions in 2H.

2024

2023

Long

Short

Long

Short

High

47

51

29

33

Low

20

20

20

20

Figure 6: Number of position holders freight futures

A graph of a graph of money

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Source: SGX, KGI Research

  • Physicals. The number of physicals with long positions increased to 157 after declining last week. Accordingly, the number of physicals with short positions increased to 90 after 2 consecutive weeks of decline. The number of physicals has been on a general upward trend since 2Q, while physicals with short positions generally saw a downtrend since 2Q.

2024

2023

Long

Short

Long

Short

High

171

114

120

123

Low

98

78

78

62

Figure 7: Number of position holders freight futures

A graph of a number of people

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Source: SGX, KGI Research

  • Others. The number of others with long positions increased slightly to 22 after remaining stable a week ago.

2024

2023

Long

Short

Long

Short

High

43

39

53

45

Low

20

20

31

25

Figure 8: Number of position holders freight futures

A graph of different colored lines

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Source: SGX, KGI Research

SGX SICOM Rubber Futures – TSR20

Net Long/Short and Price Comparison

We highlight the key price levels that each participants switches their positions between net long and net short based on 2024 data.

2024

Financial Institution (FI)

Manage Money (MM)

Physicals

Others

Net Long

Below US$1.90/kg

NA

NA

NA

Net Short

Above US$1.60/kg

NA

NA

NA

Net-position WoW Change

Remarks

FI

+0.96

Increase for 2 consecutive weeks

MM

-4.21

Decline for 2 consecutive weeks

Physicals

+3.48

Increase for 2 consecutive weeks

Others

-0.23

Decline for 2 consecutive weeks

Figure 9: Net-positions by participant segment and price comparison

A graph of different colored lines

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Source: SGX, KGI Research

Long/Short Traders Snapshot

  • Managed Money. The number of MM with long positions declined for a week to 92 after remaining stable for 2 consecutive weeks. Accordingly, the number of MM with short positions increased for 2 consecutive weeks to 43 after 2 consecutive weeks of decline.

2024

2023

Long

Short

Long

Short

High

114

56

89

80

Low

63

21

25

27

Figure 10: Number of position holders rubber futures

A graph of different colored lines

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Source: SGX, KGI Research

  • Physicals. The number of physicals with long positions increased for 2 consecutive weeks to 40, reaching a high since over two years. Accordingly, the number of physicals with short positions retreated for 3 consecutive weeks to 37, with little deviations since the end of 2024. Seasonally, more physicals are prone to long in early Q3, and there are more physicals with short positions in Q4.

2024

2023

Long

Short

Long

Short

High

39

48

43

39

Low

26

28

24

24

Figure 11: Number of position holders rubber futures

A graph of a graph showing the number of the number of individuals

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Source: SGX, KGI Research

  • Others. The number of long holders declined for 3 consecutive weeks to 53 after reaching a high since early December 2024 three weeks ago. On the other hand, the number of short holders declined marginally to 36.

2024

2023

Long

Short

Long

Short

High

77

48

82

51

Low

48

26

51

28

Figure 12: Number of position holders rubber futures

A graph of different colored lines

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Source: SGX, KGI Research

Participant Category

Description

Financial Institutions

An entity, such as a broker trading desk, bank trading desk or swap dealer, that uses the futures markets to manage or hedge the risk.

Managed Money

An entity that is engaged in organized futures trading on behalf of funds or other special investment purpose vehicles such as Pension Funds, Asset Managers, Hedge Funds, Proprietary Trading Groups, Family Offices, etc.

Physicals

An entity that predominantly engages in the physical markets and uses the futures markets to manage or hedge risks associated with the conduct of those activities. Such activities could include the production, processing, trading, packing or handling of a physical commodity, or the provision of transportation, warehousing or distribution services.

Others

Every other trader that is not placed into one of the other three categories. E.g., Broker Agency, Bank Agency, Inter-Dealer Brokers, etc.

凯基证券期货周报 – 3 月 11 日

SGX TSI 铁矿石 CFR 中国(62% 铁粉)指数期货

净多头/空头和价格比较

我们根据2024年数据,突出了每个参与者在净多头和净空头之间切换仓位的关键价格水平。

2024

金融机构 (FI)

管理资金 (MM)

实物交割(Physicals)

其他 (Others)

净多头

低于 118 美元/吨

118 美元/吨以上

低于 100 美元/吨

净空头

118 美元/吨以上

低于 115 美元/吨

100 美元/吨以上

净仓位按周变化

备注

金融机构

+11.42

连续三周增加

管理资金

-5.56

连续三周下跌

实物交割

-15.03

从年初以来的最大涨幅中回落

其他

+9.16

连续两周增加

图 1:按参与者细分的净持仓和价格比较

A graph of different colored lines

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

资料来源: 新交所、凯基研究

多头/空头交易简报

  • 管理资金。持有多头头寸的管理资金数目从两周前的459降至375,连续两周下降。因此,持有空头头寸的管理资金数目连续3周增加,达到237人季节性来看,更多管理资金倾向于在第四季上半旬和第二季下半旬持有多头,而在第二季上半旬和第三季上半旬持有空头的管理资金较多。

2024

2023

看多

看空

看多

看空

最高值

423

427

393

248

最低值

176

131

154

83

图 2:铁矿石期货持仓者数量

A graph of a graph of a chart of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of a graph of

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

资料来源: 新交所、凯基研究

  • 实物交割。 持有多头头寸的实物交割交易者数量连续两周增加130家,为 2024 年 11 月中旬以来的最高水平。相应地,持有空头头寸的实物交割交易者数量在一周前下降后,本周增加144 家。季节性来看,更多实物交割交易者倾向于在第一季度持有多头,而在第四季度持有空头的实物交易较多。

2024

2023

看多

看空

看多

看空

最高值

135

145

111

147

最低值

77

107

68

96

图 3:铁矿石期货持仓者数量

A graph of a number of people

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

资料来源: 新交所、凯基研究

  • 其他。 其他持有多头头寸的公司数量连续三周下降至89家,而持有空头头寸的公司数量在连续三周下降后反弹至82家。

2024

2023

看多

看空

看多

看空

最高值

131

131

134

152

最低值

68

83

103

101

图 4:铁矿石期货持仓者数量

A graph of different colored lines

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

资料来源: 新交所、凯基研究

SGX 波罗的海巴拿马型船平均期租期货

我们根据2024年数据,突出了每个参与者在净多头和净空头之间切换仓位的关键价格水平。

2024

金融机构 (FI)

管理资金 (MM)

实物交割(Physicals)

其他 (Others)

净多头

9,000 美元/吨以上

低于 8,500 美元/吨

净空头

低于 9,000 美元/吨

9,500 美元/吨以上

净仓位按周变化

备注

金融机构

-0.10

连续两周增加后回落

管理资金

+0.10

连续六周增加

实物交割

-0.18

连续六周下降

其他

+0.18

连续三周增加

图 5:按参与者类别划分的净仓位及价格比较

A graph of different colored lines

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

资料来源: 新交所、凯基研究

多头/空头交易者快照

  • 管理资金。持有多头头寸的管理资金交易者数量小幅增加至24家,维持在2025年3月的当前水平附近。另一方面,持有空头头寸的管理资金交易者数量在连续5周下降后,连续2周增加至44家。季节性来看,更多管理资金倾向于在上半年持有多头,而在下半年持有空头的管理资金较多。

2024

2023

看多

看空

看多

看空

最高值

47

51

29

33

最低值

20

20

20

20

图 6: 运费期货持仓者数量

A graph of a graph of money

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

资料来源: 新交所、凯基研究

  • 实物交割。 持有多头头寸的实物交割交易者数量在上周下降后增至157家。因此,在连续两周下降后,持有空头头寸的实物交割交易者数量增加到90家。自去年第二季度以来,实物交割交易者数量总体呈上升趋势,而持有空头头寸的实物交割交易者数量自去年第二季度以来总体呈下降趋势。

2024

2023

看多

看空

看多

看空

最高值

171

114

120

123

最低值

98

78

78

62

图 7: 运费期货持仓者数量

A graph of a number of people

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

资料来源: 新交所、凯基研究

  • 其他。 在一周前保持稳定之后,其他多头头寸的交易者数量略有增加,达到22家。

2024

2023

看多

看空

看多

看空

最高值

43

39

53

45

最低值

20

20

31

25

图 8: 运费期货持仓者数量

A graph of different colored lines

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

资料来源: 新交所、凯基研究

SGX SICOM 橡胶期货 – TSR20

净多头/空头及价格比较

我们根据2024年数据,突出了每个参与者在净多头和净空头之间切换仓位的关键价格水平。

2024

金融机构 (FI)

管理资金 (MM)

实物交割(Physicals)

其他 (Others)

净多头

低于 1.90 美元/公斤

净空头

1.60 美元/公斤以上

净仓位按周变化

备注

金融机构

+0.96

连续两周上升

管理资金

-4.21

连续两周下跌

实物交割

+3.48

连续两周上升

其他

-0.23

连续两周下跌

图 9:按参与者类别划分的净仓位及价格比较

A graph of different colored lines

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

资料来源: 新交所、凯基研究

多头/空头交易者快照

  • 管理资金。 持有多头头寸的管理资金交易者数量在连续两周保持稳定后,上周下降至92家。因此,持有空头头寸的管理资金交易者数量在连续两周下降后,连续两周增加至43家。

2024

2023

看多

看空

看多

看空

最高值

114

56

89

80

最低值

63

21

25

27

图 10:橡胶期货持仓者数量

A graph of different colored lines

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

资料来源:新交所、凯基研究

  • 实物交割。持有多头头寸的实物交割交易者数量连续两周增加,达到40家,创下两年多来的新高。因此,持有空头头寸的实物交割交易者数量连续三周回落至37家,自2024年底以来几乎没有变化。季节性来看,第三季度初更多的实物交割交易者倾向于做多,第四季度更多的实物交割交易者倾向于做空。

2024

2023

看多

看空

看多

看空

最高值

39

48

43

39

最低值

26

28

24

24

图11:橡胶期货持仓者数量

A graph of a graph showing the number of the number of individuals

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

资料来源:新交所、凯基研究

  • 其他。 其他多头持有者数量连续三周下降至53家,此前三周曾达到自2024年12月初以来的最高水平。另一方面,空头持有者数量则小幅下降至36家。

2024

2023

看多

看空

看多

看空

最高值

77

48

82

51

最低值

48

26

51

28

图 12:持仓橡胶期货数量

A graph of different colored lines

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

资料来源:新交所、凯基研究

参与者类别

描述

金融机构

使用期货市场管理或对冲风险的实体,如经纪商交易台、银行交易台或互换交易商。

管理资金

代表基金或其他特殊投资目的工具(如养老基金、资产管理公司、对冲基金、自营交易集团、家族办公室等)从事有组织的期货交易的实体。

实物交割

主要从事实物市场并使用期货市场管理或对冲与这些活动相关风险的实体。这些活动可能包括生产、加工、贸易、包装或处理实物商品,或提供运输、仓储或分销服务。

其他

未归类到上述三类中的其他交易者,例如经纪代理、银行代理、交易商间经纪商等。