KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 8 November 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Skechers USA Inc (SKX US)

  • Shares closed above the 50dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  • RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  • Long – Entry 49.6, Target 53.0, Stop 47.9

Shopify Inc (SHOP US)

  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA.
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 61.1, Target 66.5, Stop 58.4

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iFAST Corp Ltd (IFAST SP)

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with rising volume. 
  • MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 6.94, Target 7.50 Stop 6.66

Venture Corp Ltd (VMS SP)

  • Shares closed above the 50dEMA with an increase in volume. 
  • RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 12.45 Target 13.09 Stop 12.13

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Nexteer Automotive Group Ltd (1316 HK)

  • Shares closed above the 20dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  • RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  • Long – Entry 3.98, Target 4.26, Stop 3.84

AAC Technologies Holdings Inc (2018 HK)

  • Shares closed above the 200dEMA with an increase in volume. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 16.4, Target 17.8, Stop 15.7

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Tripadvisor Inc (TRIP)

  • 3Q23 Revenue: $533M, +16.1% YoY, beat estimates by $27.82M
  • 3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.52, beat estimates by $0.05
  • 4Q23 Guidance: Expect consolidated revenue growth of mid-single digits. The primary drivers are mid-single digit declines in Tripadvisor Core and low-20% growth in Viator. Expect TheFork to grow in the low- to mid-teens year-over-year. FY23 Guidance: expect revenue growth in the high teens, slightly above the outlook previously provided. For adjusted EBITDA margin, slightly increased expectation and now expect consolidated EBITDA margin of approximately 18%. FY24 Guidance: expect to deliver adjusted EBITDA dollar growth that will outpace revenue growth due to the full-year profit contributions from both Viator and TheFork.
  • Comment: In the third quarter, Tripadvisor Group showed strong revenue and earnings growth and notable success in its experiences-focused segments. Viator, the experiences division, achieved a remarkable 41% revenue growth and reached $1.1bn in gross bookings value. TheFork, the restaurant booking platform, improved its margins and is on track to break even by year end. The company continues to prioritise enhancing traveller engagement and expanding its monetisation avenues, with a focus on driving deeper repeat customer behaviour. Looking ahead to 2024, Tripadvisor expects to outpace revenue growth with its EBITDA expansion due to contributions from Viator and TheFork while maintaining a balance between investments and execution of core strategies, enabling it to cut costs. As consumers look towards spending more on tours and experiences, TripAdvisor will stand to benefit from it. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $17.0 to $19.5. Positive Outlook.  

Tripadvisor (TRIP) 

  • 23财年第四季营收：5.33亿美元, 同比增幅16.1%，超预期2,782万美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.52美元，超预期0.05美元  
  • 23财年第四季指引：预计综合收入将实现中等个位数的增长。主要原因是Tripadvisor核心业务出现了个位数的下降，而Viator的增长率只有20%。预计TheFork的年增长率将在15%到15%之间。23财年指引：预计营收增长在10%左右，略高于此前的预期。对于调整后的EBITDA利润率，略微提高了预期，现在预计综合EBITDA利润率约为18%。24财年指引：由于Viator和TheFork的全年利润贡献，预计调整后的EBITDA美元增长将超过收入增长。
  • 短评：在第三季度，Tripadvisor Group的收入和利润增长强劲，在以体验为重点的细分市场取得了显著成功。体验部门Viator的收入增长了41%，总预订量达到11亿美元。餐厅预订平台TheFork提高了利润率，有望在年底前实现收支平衡。该公司继续将提高游客参与度和扩大盈利渠道放在首位，重点是推动更深层次的回头客行为。展望2024年，由于Viator和TheFork的贡献，Tripadvisor预计其EBITDA的增长将超过收入增长，同时保持投资和执行核心战略之间的平衡，使其能够削减成本。随着消费者希望在旅游和体验上花费更多，TripAdvisor将从中受益。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：17.0美元至19.5美元。积极前景。

Uber Technologies Inc (UBER)

  • 3Q23 Revenue: $9.29B, +11.4% YoY, miss estimates by $250M
  • 3Q23 GAAP EPS: $0.10, miss estimates by $0.02
  • 4Q23 Guidance: Gross Bookings of $36.5bn to $37.5bn; Adjusted EBITDA of $1.18bn to $1.24bn.
  • Comment: Despite Uber reporting slowing revenue growth, it also presented a profitable quarter with an increase in ride demand. The company’s income from operations during the quarter amounted to $394mn and overall trips grew 25%. Its gross bookings grew by 21% YoY to $35.3bn, driven by the Mobility and Delivery segments, which saw strong increases of 31% and 18% YoY, respectively. The ridesharing segment experienced growth beyond expectations, driven by enhancements in driver availability and an increase in trips resulting from back-to-school commuting and the resumption of corporate travel. The company’s total revenue was negatively impacted by the reclassification of some costs due to changes in its business model. Uber anticipates robust demand in the upcoming holiday quarter, expecting adjusted core profit to reach $1.18bn to $1.24bn, surpassing analysts’ estimates. The positive outlook is due to a surge in trips and Gross Bookings in October, providing optimism for both its ride-hailing and food-delivery services. While Uber experienced a slowdown in revenue growth during the third quarter, it remains confident in the continued strength of consumer demand. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $45 to $55. Positive Outlook. 

优步 (UBER) 

  • 23财年第三季营收：92.9亿美元, 同比增幅11.4%，逊预期2.5亿美元
  • 23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：0.10美元，超预期0.02美元  
  • 23财年第四季指引：总预订量为365亿至375亿美元；调整后EBITDA为11.8亿美元至12.4亿美元。
  • 短评：尽管优步报告收入增长放缓，但随着乘车需求的增加，它也呈现了一个盈利的季度。该公司在本季度的运营收入达到3.94亿美元，总旅行量增长了25%。其总预订量同比增长21%，达到353亿美元，这主要得益于出行和交付业务的强劲增长，这两个业务分别同比增长31%和18%。由于司机可用性的提高，以及返校通勤和商务旅行的恢复带来的出行增加，拼车领域的增长超出了预期。由于业务模式的变化，公司的总收入受到一些成本重新分类的负面影响。优步预计，即将到来的假日季需求强劲，预计调整后的核心利润将达到11.8亿至12.4亿美元，超出分析师的预期。乐观的前景是由于10月份旅行和总预订量激增，为其叫车和送餐服务带来了乐观情绪。虽然优步在第三季度经历了收入增长放缓，但它仍然对消费者需求的持续强劲充满信心。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：45美元至55美元。积极前景。

Datadog Inc (DDOG)

  • 3Q23 Revenue: $547.54M, +25.4% YoY, beat estimates by $23.34M
  • 3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.45, beat estimates by $0.11
  • 4Q23 Guidance: Revenue between $564M and $568M vs $543.95M consensus. Non-GAAP operating income between $129M and $133M. Non-GAAP net income per share between $0.42 and $0.44 vs $0.34 consensus, assuming approximately 355M weighted average diluted shares outstanding. FY23 Guidance: Revenue between $2.103B and $2.107B vs $2.06B consensus. Non-GAAP operating income between $453M and $457M. Non-GAAP net income per share between $1.52 and $1.54 vs $1.32 consensus, assuming approximately 351M weighted average diluted shares outstanding.
  • Comment: Datadog reported Q3 earnings that exceeded expectations. The company raised its full-year revenue and profit outlook, driven by customers’ demand for better cybersecurity solutions to threats. With an increase in security breaches, more companies are turning to companies like Datadog, which provides businesses and governments with software and cybersecurity. The company recorded a 20% increase in its total customers to 3,130, amounting to annual recurring revenue of at least $100,000. Its CEO noted that “AI-native customers” contributed to 2.5% of annualised revenue. With the industry noticing a decline in organisations’ cost-reduction efforts alongside increasing cyber threats, we anticipate an incline in spending towards cloud and security products. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $96 to $110. Positive Outlook. 

数据狗 (DDOG) 

  • 23财年第三季营收：5.4784亿美元, 同比增幅25.4%，超预期2,334万美元
  • 23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：0.45美元，超预期0.11美元  
  • 23财年第四季指引：收入在5.64亿至5.68亿美元之间，而市场预期为5.4395亿美元。Non-GAAP营业收入在1.29亿美元至1.33亿美元之间。Non-GAAP每股净收入在0.42美元至0.44美元之间，而市场普遍认为每股净收入为0.34美元，假设加权平均摊薄流通股约为3.55亿股。23财年指引：营收在21.03亿美元至21.07亿美元之间，预期为20.6亿美元。Non-GAAP营业收入在4.53亿美元至4.57亿美元之间。Non-GAAP每股净收入在1.52美元至1.54美元之间，而市场普遍认为每股净收入为1.32美元，假设加权平均摊薄在外股票约为3.51亿股。
  • 短评：公司公布第三季度收益超出预期。受客户对更好的网络安全解决方案的需求推动，该公司上调了全年收入和利润预期。随着安全漏洞的增加，越来越多的公司开始求助于数据狗这样的公司。公司为企业和政府提供软件和网络安全服务。该公司的客户总数增加了20%，达到3130人，每年的经常性收入至少达到10万美元。该公司首席执行官指出，“人工智能原生客户”贡献了2.5%的年化收入。随着业界注意到企业在降低成本方面的努力有所下降，同时网络威胁也在增加，我们预计云计算和安全产品的支出将有所增加。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：96美元至110美元。积极前景。

D.R. Horton Inc (DHI)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $10.5B, +19.3% YoY, beat estimates by $480M
  • 4Q23 GAAP EPS: $4.45, beat estimates by $0.52
  • FY24 Guidance: Consolidated revenues of approximately $36.0bn to $37.0bn. Homes closed by homebuilding operations of 86,000 homes to 89,000 homes. Income tax rate in the range of 24.0% to 24.5%. Cash flow provided by homebuilding operations of approximately $3.0bn.
  • Share Repurchase: Approximately $1.5bn
  • Comment: D.R. Horton delivered mixed quarterly results with revenue and earnings beating expectations while profit declined. It anticipates a decline in home sales during the first quarter, as high mortgage rates dampen housing demand. The company expects to sell 18,500 to 19,000 homes this quarter, down from the previous quarter’s 22,928 sales. In response to shrinking housing demand, D.R. Horton plans to offer incentives like mortgage rate buydowns, particularly for entry-level buyers, and reducing the size of new homes aiming to maintain sales with lower prices. While it anticipates selling 86,000 to 89,000 homes in FY24, it also expects home prices to ease due to affordability challenges caused by high mortgage rates. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $115 to $125. Neutral Outlook. 

霍顿房屋 (DHI) 

  • 23财年第四季营收：105亿美元, 同比增幅19.3%，超预期4.8亿美元
  • 23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：4.45美元，超预期0.52美元  
  • 24财年指引：合并收入约为360亿至370亿美元。房屋建造业务销售8.6万至8.9万套房屋。所得税率在24.0%至24.5%之间。住宅建筑业务提供的现金流约为30亿美元。
  • 股份回购：约15亿美元
  • 短评：公布了喜忧参半的季度业绩，收入和收益超过预期，但利润有所下降。该公司预计，由于高抵押贷款利率抑制了住房需求，第一季度房屋销售将出现下滑。该公司预计本季度将销售18,500至19,000套房屋，低于上一季度的22,928套。为了应对不断萎缩的住房需求，公司计划提供一些激励措施，比如降低抵押贷款利率，特别是对初级购房者，以及缩小新房的面积，以期以较低的价格维持销售。虽然该公司预计在24财年销售8.6万至8.9万套房屋，但它也预计，由于抵押贷款利率高企带来的负担能力挑战，房价将会回落。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：115美元至125美元。中性前景。

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