Technical Analysis – 27 October 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

International Business Machines Corp (IBM US)

Shares closed above the 50dEMA with a jump in volume.
RSI is constructive, while MACD turned positive.
Long – Entry 143.0, Target 150.0, Stop 139.5

RTX Corp (RTX US)

Shares closed above the 50dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
Long – Entry 78.6, Target 84.8, Stop 75.5

iFAST Corp Ltd (IFAST SP)

Shares closed above the 20dEMA with a surge in volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 50dEMA and 20dEMA.
RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
Long – Entry 5.90, Target 6.20 Stop 5.75

Nanofilm Technologies International Ltd (NANO SP)

Shares closed above the 20dEMA with a jump in volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
Long – Entry 0.95 Target 1.02 Stop 0.92

Huaneng Power International Inc (902 HK)

Shares closed at the 20dEMA. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
Long – Entry 3.48, Target 3.74, Stop 3.35

China Resources Power Holdings Co Ltd (836 HK)

Shares closed above the 20dEMA with an increase in volume.
RSI is constructive and MACD turned positive.
Long – Entry 14.3, Target 15.1, Stop 13.9

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL)

3Q23 Revenue: $4.2B, +40.5% YoY, beat estimates by $140M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.85, beat estimates by $0.46
4Q23 Guidance: Net Yields are expected to be up 16.2% to 16.7% in constant currency and 15.0% to 15.5% As-Reported. Based on current fuel pricing, interest and currency exchange rates and the factors detailed above, the company expects Adjusted EPS to be $1.05 to $1.10 per share vs. the consensus of $0.97. FY23 Guidance: Net Yields are expected to increase 12.9% to 13.4% in Constant-Currency (12.4% to 12.9% As-Reported), compared to 2019. Adjusted EPS is expected to be in the range of $6.58 to $6.63 per share vs. the consensus of $6.03.
Comment: Royal Caribbean International highlighted an impressive yield improvement of nearly 17% and strong earnings performance in Q3, positioning the company well for the future. However, the impact of events in Israel was discussed, leading to adjusted itineraries and an earnings-per-share impact of approximately $0.05. Despite challenges, the company’s focus on cost control and a strong demand environment is anticipated for 2024, which is expected to be another banner year with an 8% capacity growth. The FY23 guidance indicates an upward trend in yield and earnings. Additionally, the company is actively reducing its debt, strengthening its balance sheet, and receiving credit rating upgrades. The company continues to focus on cost control and margin expansion. With margin expansion due to better cost control as well as strong quarterly earnings. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $75 to $90. Neutral Outlook.

皇家加勒比邮轮 (RCL)

23财年第三季营收：42亿美元, 同比增幅40.0%，超预期1.4亿美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股亏损：3.85美元，超预期0.46美元
23财年第四季指引：按固定汇率计算，净收益率预计将上升16.2%至16.7%，按报告水平计算，净收益率将上升15.0%至15.5%。根据当前的燃油价格、利率和货币汇率以及上述因素，公司预计调整后每股收益为1.05至1.10美元，而市场预期为0.97美元。23财年指引：按不变货币计算，预计净收益率较2022年增长12.9%至13.4%（报告显示为12.4%至12.9%）。调整后的每股收益预计在6.58美元至6.63美元之间，而市场预期为6.03美元。
短评：公司在第三季度的收益提高了近17%，盈利表现强劲，为公司未来的发展奠定了良好的基础。然而，以色列事件的影响导致调整了出行行程，每股收益影响约为0.05美元。尽管面临挑战，该公司仍将重点放在成本控制和强劲的需求环境上，预计2024年将是另一个标志性的一年，载客量增长8%。23财年的指引表明收益率和收益呈上升趋势。此外，该公司正在积极减少债务，加强其资产负债表，并获得信用评级上调。公司继续专注于成本控制和利润扩张。由于更好的成本控制和强劲的季度收益，利润率上升。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：75美元至90美元。中性前景。

United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS)

3Q23 Revenue: $21.06B, -13.0% YoY, misses estimates by $410M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.57, beat estimates by $0.01
FY23 Guidance: UPS updated its full-year 2023 consolidated revenue and adjusted operating margin targets primarily to reflect global macro-economic uncertainty. UPS now expects full-year 2023 consolidated revenue to be between $91.3 billion and $92.3 billion and a consolidated adjusted operating margin of between 10.8% and 11.3%. The company is maintaining its full-year planned capital expenditures target of about $5.3 billion and dividend payment expectations of around $5.4 billion, subject to board approval. UPS now expects full-year 2023 share repurchases to be approximately $2.25 billion. The effective tax rate for the full year is expected to be approximately 22%.
Comment: UPS Q3 results were mixed due to challenges faced in the global macro environment and the impact of labour negotiations, UPS is working to restore volume in its network and execute its strategy to deliver value to shareholders. The company is focused on its “customer-first, people-led, innovation-driven” strategy and has made acquisitions in healthcare logistics and returns solutions. The company is also expanding its digital access program (DAP) for small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs). UPS is investing in transformative technologies like RFID and robotics to enhance efficiency. The company is preparing for the holiday peak season, and while it lowered its full-year guidance due to macroeconomic challenges, it remains focused on providing industry-leading service during peak. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $125 to $140. Neutral Outlook.

联合包裹服务 (UPS)

23财年第三季营收：210.6亿美元, 同比增跌幅13.0%，逊预期4.1亿美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.57美元，超预期0.01美元
23财年指引：公司更新其2023年全年综合收入和调整后的营业利润率目标，主要是为了反映全球宏观经济的不确定性。公司目前预计，2023年全年的综合收入将在913亿美元至923亿美元之间，调整后的综合营业利润率将在10.8%至11.3%之间。该公司将维持其全年计划资本支出目标约为53亿美元，股息支付预期约为54亿美元，但仍需董事会批准。公司目前预计，2023年全年的股票回购规模约为22.5亿美元。全年的有效税率预计约为22%。
短评：由于面临全球宏观环境的挑战和劳资谈判的影响，公司第三季度的业绩好坏参半。公司正在努力恢复其网络的业务量，并执行其战略，为股东创造价值。该公司专注于“客户至上、以人为本、创新驱动”的战略，并在医疗物流和退货解决方案方面进行了收购。三星电子还扩大了以中小企业为对象的数字访问计划。公司正在投资RFID和机器人等变革性技术，以提高效率。该公司正在为假日旺季做准备，虽然由于宏观经济的挑战，它降低了全年的指导，但它仍然专注于在高峰期间提供行业领先的服务。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：125美元至145美元。中性前景。

Southwest Airlines Co (LUV)

3Q23 Revenue: $6.53B, +5.0% YoY, miss estimates by $40M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.38 miss estimates by $0.01
4Q23 Guidance: Southwest sees RASM falling 9% to 11% Y/Y, but sees ASMs rising about 21%. Additionally, LUV said that, in light of its new order book with Boeing, the carrier now expects about 85 aircraft deliveries from the top planemaker, versus an earlier expectation of 70 deliveries. FY24 Guidance: lowered its 1Q24 capacity growth guidance to a range of 10% to 12% from a previous outlook of 14% to 16%. FY24 capacity is expected to increase 6% to 8% YoY, and the carrier said it was continuing to plan for sequentially lower capacity growth in each quarter of 2024.
Comment: Despit missing third-quarter estimates, Southwest Airlines reported operating revenues of just over $6.5bn, a nearly 5% increase YoY, driven by strong leisure demand and managed business as expected. The company remained profitable, with a net income of $240mn, despite rising fuel prices and inflationary pressures. Southwest achieved significant milestones, such as completing its network restoration plan and ordering new aircraft with Boeing. Looking ahead to 2024, the airline plans to moderate capacity growth, adapt to changing travel behaviours, and focus on optimising its operation to improve margins. Southwest also emphasised its commitment to generating value for employees, customers, and shareholders. The airline’s operational performance improved, and it has taken several steps to enhance its winter operations preparedness. It aims to maintain a balance between measured growth and efficient network management while addressing unit revenue challenges. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $20 to $28. Positive Outlook.

西南航空 (LUV)

23财年第三季营收：65.3亿美元, 同比增幅5.0%，逊预期4,000万美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.38美元，逊预期0.01美元
23财年第四季指引：西南航空预计，按年率计算，每可用座位英里收入将下降9%至11%，但可用座位里程将上升约21%。此外，公司表示，鉴于其与波音公司的新订单，该航空公司目前预计将从波音公司交付约85架飞机，而此前预计交付70架。24财年指引：将其第一季度的载客量增长预期从之前的14%至16%下调至10%至12%。预计2024财年的运力将同比增长6%至8%，该航空公司表示，它将继续计划在2024年的每个季度相继降低运力增长。
短评：尽管没有达到第三季度的预期，西南航空公司报告的营业收入略高于65亿美元，同比增长近5%，这得益于强劲的休闲需求和预期的管理业务。尽管燃油价格不断上涨，通胀压力不断加大，但该公司仍保持盈利，净利润为2.4亿美元。西南航空取得了重要的里程碑，例如完成了网络恢复计划，并与波音公司订购了新飞机。展望2024年，该航空公司计划减缓运力增长，适应不断变化的旅行行为，并专注于优化运营以提高利润率。西南航空还强调了为员工、客户和股东创造价值的承诺。该航空公司的运营表现有所改善，并采取了一些措施来加强其冬季运营准备。它的目标是在解决单位收入挑战的同时，在衡量增长和有效的网络管理之间保持平衡。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：20美元至28美元。中性前景。

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN)

3Q23 Revenue: $143.1B, +12.6% YoY, beat estimates by $1.54B
3Q23 EPS: $0.94, may not be comparable to consensus of $0.60
4Q23 Guidance: Net sales are expected to be between $160.0bn and $167.0bn vs $167.04B consensus, or to grow between 7% and 12% compared with fourth quarter 2022. This guidance anticipates a favorable impact of approximately 40 basis points from foreign exchange rates. Operating income is expected to be between $7.0bn and $11.0bn, compared with $2.7bn in 4Q22.
Comment: Amazon reported strong financial results for the third quarter beating revenue and earnings expectations. It also presented $11.2bn in operating income, up 343% YoY. This impressive performance can be attributed to the successful regionalisation of the fulfillment network in the US, resulting in shorter delivery times and reduced costs. In the cloud computing sector, Amazon Web Services (AWS) generated $23.1bn in revenue, growing 12% YoY, and saw a stabilising growth rate. The company’s focus on generative AI, offering custom silicon for training large language models, and services like Amazon Bedrock, are driving innovation. Amazon is also investing in expanding its offerings in areas such as Prime Video, advertising, healthcare, and low Earth orbit satellite initiatives. These results reflect Amazon’s commitment to improving customer experiences and delivering strong financial performance. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $120 to $1405. Positive Outlook.

亚马逊 (AMZN)

23财年第三季营收：1,431亿美元, 同比增幅12.6%，超预期15.4美元
23财年第三季每股盈利：0.94美元，可能无法与0.60美元的共识比较
23财年第四季指引：净销售额预计在1,600亿美元至1,670亿美元之间，而市场预期为1,670.4亿美元，或与2022年第四季度相比增长7%至12%。这一指引预计外汇汇率将产生约40个基点的有利影响。营业利润预计将在70亿美元至110亿美元之间，而去年第四季度为27亿美元。
短评：亚马逊公布了强劲的第三季度财务业绩，超出了收入和盈利预期。该公司还公布了112亿美元的营业收入，同比增长343%。这一令人印象深刻的表现可归因于美国履行网络的成功区域化，从而缩短了交货时间并降低了成本。在云计算领域，亚马逊云服务创造了231亿美元的收入，同比增长12%，并保持了稳定的增长率。该公司专注于生成式人工智能，提供用于训练大型语言模型的定制芯片，以及亚马逊Bedrock等服务，正在推动创新。亚马逊还在投资扩大其在Prime Video、广告、医疗保健和近地轨道卫星计划等领域的服务。这些结果反映了亚马逊致力于改善客户体验和实现强劲财务业绩的承诺。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：120美元至140美元。积极前景。

Intel Corp. (INTC)

3Q23 Revenue: $14.16B, -7.7% YoY, beat estimates by $560M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.41, beat estimates by $0.19.
4Q23 Guidance: Revenue of $14.6B to $15.6B vs. consensus of $14.35B, EPS attributable to Intel of $0.23 and non-GAAP EPS attributable to Intel of $0.44 vs. consensus of $0.32.
Comment: Intel’s strong 3Q23 earnings were mainly driven by the continued rebound in PCs. It expected full-year 2023 PC consumption to be in line with its Q1 expectations of approximately 270 million units. Intel is making meaningful progress towards its IDM 2.0 transformation. It began initial shipments of Meteor Lake on Intel 4 in 3Q23 and is aggressively ramping production on the most productive fleet of EUV tools in the industry. Intel expects to achieve manufacturing readiness on Intel 20A in the first half of 2024, and Intel 18A in the second half of 2024. Intel continued to strengthen its leading position in the AI CPU market. However, Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices recently announced that they planned to produce ARM-based processors and enter the PC market in 2025, intensifying competition in the CPU market amidst an AI race. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $32 to $37. Positive Outlook.

英特尔 (INTC)

23财年第三季营收：141.6亿美元, 同比跌幅7.7%，超预期5.6亿美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.41美元，超预期0.19美元
23财年第四季指引：营收146亿至156亿美元，市场预期为143.5亿美元，归属于英特尔的每股收益为0.23美元，归属于英特尔的Non-GAAP每股收益为0.44美元，市场预期为0.32美元。
短评：特尔23年第三季度的强劲盈利主要受到个人电脑业务持续反弹的推动。该公司预计，2023年全年PC消费量将与第一季度的预期相符，约为2.7亿台。英特尔在其集成设计制造商2.0转型方面取得了有意义的进展。该公司于23年第三季度开始在英特尔4上首次出货流星湖，并积极提高极紫外光工具的产量，这是业内产量最高的积极外光工具。英特尔预计在2024年上半年实现英特尔20A的制造准备，在2024年下半年实现英特尔18A的制造准备。英特尔继续巩固其在人工智能CPU市场的领先地位。但是，英伟达和超微半导体公司最近表示，计划在2025年生产ARM处理器，并进军PC市场，因此，在人工智能的竞争中，CPU市场的竞争将进一步加剧。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：32美元至37美元。积极前景。

Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC)

3Q23 Revenue: $9.8B, +9.0% YoY, beat estimates by $240M
3Q23 GAAP EPS: $6.18, beat estimates by $0.40
FY23 Guidance: Expect sales to grow by $400M to $39B. Mark-to-market adjusted EPS of $22.45-$22.85. FY24 guidance: sales and operating income to grow by 4% to 5%, and free cash flow to be $2.2B to $2.65B.
Comment: In 3Q23, the company’s net awarded contracts reached $15bn, making its total backlog of a record $84bn. Rising geopolitical tensions result in a higher global defence budget in each country. The recent Israle-Hamas conflict escalates, and more regional countries are potentially involved in military action. Moving forward, arms demand will continue to grow in the Middle East, benefiting the overall defence sector. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $470to $500. Postive Outlook.

诺斯洛普- 格鲁门 (NOC)

23财年第三季营收：98.0亿美元, 同比增幅9.0%，超预期2.4亿美元
23财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：6.18美元，超预期0.40美元
23财年第四季指引：预计销售额将增长4亿美元至390亿美元。按市值计算调整后的每股收益为22.45至22.85美元。24财年指引：销售和营业收入增长4%至5%，自由现金流为22亿美元至26.5亿美元。
短评：在23年第三季度，该公司的净授予合同达到150亿美元，使其总积压合同达到创纪录的840亿美元。地缘政治紧张局势的加剧导致每个国家的全球国防预算增加。最近以色列和哈马斯的冲突升级，更多的地区国家可能卷入军事行动。展望未来，中东地区的武器需求将继续增长，使整个国防行业受益。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：470美元至500美元。积极前景。

Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH)

3Q23 Revenue: $551.08M, -13.2% YoY, miss estimates by $15.72M
3Q23Non-GAAP EPS: $1.02, beat estimates by $0.02
4Q23 Guidance: Revenue to be within a range of $300.0 million to $350.0 million, which includes shipments of 80 to 100 megawatt hours of IQ Batteries, vs $579M consensus. Net IRA benefit to be between $26 million and $28 million.
Comment: The overall supply of microinverters and batteries is stable, but the demand in the Europe falls substantially. Last quarter, distributors faced oversupply of solar equipment, particularly panels, and hence, there were more aggressive destocking. US market has a similar weak demand. The sell-through of IQ batteries were up in the US but down in Europe. The company expects to ship 1mn microinverters in 4Q23. In the near term, the solar sector continues to suffer from oversupply and soft demand. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $70 to $90. Negative Outlook.

Enphase 能源 (ENPH)

23财年第三季营收：5.5108亿美元, 同比跌幅13.2%，逊预期1,572万美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.02美元，超预期0.02美元
23财年第四季指引：营收预计在3亿至3.5亿美元之间，其中IQ电池的出货量为80至100兆瓦时，而市场预期营收为5.79亿美元。税收优惠将在2,600万至2,800万美元之间。
短评：微型逆变器和电池的总体供应稳定，但欧洲的需求大幅下降。上个季度，分销商面临太阳能设备，尤其是电池板供过于求的局面，因此，分销商采取了更积极的去库存措施。美国市场的需求也同样疲软。IQ电池的销量在美国有所上升，但在欧洲有所下降。该公司预计在2013年第四季度将出货100万台微型逆变器。在短期内，太阳能行业继续遭受供过于求和需求疲软的困扰。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：70美元至90美元。负面前景。

Ford Motor Co (F)

3Q23 Revenue excluding Ford credit: $41.18B, +10.7% YoY, miss estimates by $1.33B
3Q23Non-GAAP EPS: $0.39, miss estimates by $0.07
FY23 Guidance: Withdraw full-year guidance.
Comment: The company’s business was substantially impacted the by the six-week UAW strike last quarter. Ford has reached a tentative deal with UAW, agreeing with 25% general wage increase over four years for its 57,000 workers. Ford will have difficulties in improving its profitability given headwinds such as higher operating costs, price war, and looming recession. US auto loan delinquencies reached a high in September since 1994, implying weak auto demand and potential credit defaults. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $8.5 to $10.5. Negative Outlook.

福特汽车 (F)

23财年第三季营收：411.8亿美元, 同比增幅10.7%，逊预期13.3亿美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.39美元，逊预期0.07美元
23财年指引：撤销全年指引。
短评：上个季度，该公司的业务受到了为期六周的汽车工人工会罢工的严重影响。福特已与工会达成初步协议，同意在四年内为其57,000名工人加薪25%。在运营成本上升、价格战、经济衰退等不利因素的影响下，福特将很难提高盈利能力。9月份美国汽车贷款拖欠率达到1994年以来的最高水平，这意味着汽车需求疲软，潜在的信用违约。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：8.5美元至10.5美元。负面前景。