Technical Analysis – 28 August 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE US)

• Shares closed at a high since Feb 2024.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 139.0 Target 153.0, Stop 132.0

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH US)

• Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA and is about to cross the 200dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 17.90, Target 19.90, Stop 18.90

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Rex International Holding Ltd. (REXI SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA with more volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 0.102, Target 0.112, Stop 0.097

Thai Beverage pcl. (THBEV SP)

• Shares closed at a high since Feb 2024 with more volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 0.510 Target 0.540, Stop 0.495

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China Mobile Ltd (941 HK)

• Shares closed at a one-month high above the 5wEM.
• RSI is constructive, while MACD is negative.
• Long – Entry 76, Target 82, Stop 73

China Unicom Hong Kong Ltd (762 HK)

• Shares closed above the 50dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 50dEMA.
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
• Long – Entry 6.72, Target 7.30, Stop 6.43

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PVH Corp. (PVH)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $2.07B, -6.3% YoY, in-line with estimates
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPADS: $3.01, beat estimates by $0.73
• FY24 Guidance: Reaffirm projected YoY revenue decrease of between 6% to 7%; Reaffirm Non-GAAP operating margin outlook of approx. flat, compared to 10.1% in 2023; Expects Non-GAAP EPS to be between the range of $11.55 to $11.80, compared to $11.00 to $11.25 previously, and vs a consensus of $11.36.
• Comment: PVH Corp. reported stronger-than-expected earnings for FY24 and raised its earnings outlook due to a tax benefit resulting from the favourable settlement of the multi-year audit. The company achieved strong consumer engagement, enhanced product strength, and improved the freshness of its assortment, resulting in more full-priced sales and fewer end-of-season clearances, which significantly expanded gross margins. However, the company experienced a decline in overall revenue and anticipates further revenue decreases. Despite a 1% increase in North American sales, losses in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China and Australia, outweighed these gains. Total revenue dropped by 6% to $2.07 billion in Q2, with direct-to-consumer revenue down 5% and wholesale revenue down 9%. Looking ahead, the company expects to face an increasingly challenging global macroeconomic environment. Retail sales also remained relatively subdued across its key markets in July, indicating possible continued consumption headwinds for the company, especially in the Asia Pacific region. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $80 to $100. Negative Outlook.

PVH (PVH)

• 24财年第二季营收：20.7亿美元，同比下跌6.3%，符合预期
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.01美元，超预期0.73美元
• 24财年指引：重申预计营收将同比下降6%至7%；重申Non-GAAP营业利润率预期约为。与2023年的10.1%相比持平；预计Non-GAAP每股收益将在11.55美元至11.80美元之间，而之前的预期为11.00美元至11.25美元，而市场预期为11.36美元。
• 短评：PVH公司公布了高于预期的24财年盈利，并上调了盈利前景，原因是多年审计的有利结算带来了税收优惠。该公司实现了强大的消费者参与度，增强了产品强度，提高了产品种类的新鲜度，从而实现了更多的全价销售和更少的季末清仓，这大大扩大了毛利率。然而，该公司经历了整体收入的下降，并预计收入将进一步下降。尽管北美地区的销售额增长了1%，但亚太地区，尤其是中国和澳大利亚的销售额的损失超过了这些收益。第二季度总收入下降6%至20.7亿美元，其中直接面向消费者的收入下降5%，批发收入下降9%。展望未来，公司预计将面临日益严峻的全球宏观经济环境。7月份主要市场的零售额也相对低迷，表明该公司可能继续面临消费方面的不利因素，尤其是在亚太地区。24年第三季度建议交易区间：80至100美元。负面前景。

Nordstrom Inc. (JWN)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $3.89B, +3.2% YoY, in-line with estimates
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.96, beat estimates by $0.23
• FY24 Guidance: Expect comparable sales range of flat to 2.0% growth; Expect EBIT margin to be 3.0% to 3.4% of sales; Expect adjusted EBIT margin of 3.6% to 4.0% of sales; Expect income tax rate of approximately 27%; Expect adjusted EPS of $1.75 to $2.05, compared to $1.65 to $2.05 previously vs $1.76 consensus excluding the impact of share repurchase activity.
• Comment: Nordstrom reported stronger-than-expected earnings and cautiously raised its FY24 guidance, showcasing the fruits of the retailer’s efforts to improve operations and cut costs to protect profits against softening demand amidst an uncertain economy. The company’s annual “Anniversary Sale,” which took place from mid-July to early August, saw strong engagement from loyalty members, with top-performing categories including beauty, activewear, and home goods, contributing to 2Q24 sales. Additionally, Nordstrom Rack, the company’s off-price brand, posted an 8.8% YoY sales increase, indicating that the treasure-hunt shopping experience is resonating with consumers amid economic uncertainty. The company opened five new Rack stores in Q2, bringing the total to 11 for the year, with plans to open 12 more by year-end. U.S. consumer spending has remained resilient, and a favourable outlook for interest rate cuts is expected to further boost sales. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $21.5 to $26.0. Positive Outlook.

诺斯庄百货 (JWN)

• 24财年第二季营收：38.9亿美元，同比增幅3.2%，符合预期
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.96美元，超预期0.23美元
• 24财年指引：预计可比销售额增幅将在持平至2.0%之间；预计息税前利润率为销售额的3.0%至3.4%；预计调整后息税前利润率为销售额的3.6%至4.0%；预计所得税税率约为27%；预期调整后每股收益为1.75至2.05美元，此前预期为1.65至2.05美元，剔除股票回购活动的影响后预期为1.76美元。
• 短评：诺斯庄百货公布了强于预期的收益，并谨慎上调了其24财年指引，这显示了该零售商在不确定的经济形势下改善运营和削减成本以保护利润免受需求疲软影响的努力取得的成果。该公司的年度“周年特卖”于7月中旬至8月初举行，忠实会员的参与度很高，美容、运动服和家居用品等表现最好的品类为24年第二季度的销售额做出了贡献。此外，该公司旗下的折扣品牌Nordstrom Rack的销售额同比增长8.8%，这表明在经济不确定的情况下，寻宝购物体验正在引起消费者的共鸣。该公司在第二季度新开了五家Rack门店，使今年的门店总数达到11家，并计划在年底前再开12家。美国消费者支出保持弹性，降息的有利前景预计将进一步提振销售。24年第三季度建议交易区间：21.5至26.0美元。积极前景。