2Q25 Revenue: $6.33B, +9.5% YoY, beat estimates by $120M
2Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.35, beat estimates by $0.11
3Q25 Guidance: Expect adjusted EBITDA to be $2.87bn, below consensus of $2.89bn; Expect Available Lower Berth Days (ALBD) to be 24.60mn, above consensus 2.54mn; Expect adjusted EPS to be $1.30, below consensus of $1.32; expects adjusted net income to be $1.80bn, below consensus of $1.84bn.
FY25 Guidance: Raised FY25 guidance. Expect adjusted EBITDA to be $6.90bn, vs consensus of $6.74bn and $6.60bn previously; Expect adjusted diluted EPS to be $1.97, above consensus of $1.87 and compared to $1.70 previously; Expect adjusted net income to be $2.69bn, above consensus of $2.53bn, and compared to $2.31bn previously; Expect ALBDs to be $96.5mn, above consensus of 96.21mn, and compared to 96.3mn previously.
Comment: Carnival Corp. delivered a strong set of results and raised its full-year FY25 outlook. The company posted its highest margins in nearly two decades, driven by robust last-minute bookings, strong onboard spending, and higher ticket prices. Customer deposits reached a record $8.5 billion. Additionally, cumulative advanced bookings for 2026 are tracking in line with 2025’s record levels and at historically high pricing. Carnival also surpassed its 2026 SEA Change financial targets 18 months ahead of schedule, with both adjusted return on invested capital and adjusted EBITDA per available lower berth day reaching their highest levels in almost 20 years. Looking ahead, sea-based vacations remain a more affordable option compared to land-based alternatives, especially for lower-income travellers. This relative affordability has underpinned Carnival’s “remarkable resilience amid heightened volatility,” as consumers increasingly book closer to departure and seek value in uncertain economic conditions. 3Q25recommended trading range: $24.50 to $28.50. Positive Outlook.
4Q25 Revenue: $22.2B, +0.5% YoY, beat estimates by $45M
4Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $6.07, beat estimates by $0.26
1Q26 Guidance: Expect adjusted EPS of $3.40 to $4 on revenue growth of flat to 2%, missing estimates of $4.05 on revenue of $21.73B.
Comment: FedEx reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of US$6.07 per share on US$22.2bn in revenue, boosted by cost-cutting efforts and improved export volumes. However, the company issued a cautious outlook for the first quarter, forecasting adjusted earnings of US$3.40 to US$4.00 per share, below analyst expectations of US$4.06. Its CEO cited a volatile global demand environment, evolving trade policies and uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China tariffs and geopolitical tensions as major headwinds. The company, which is highly exposed to China trade, declined to offer full-year guidance and noted challenges from shifting demand away from air to ground shipments. Despite this, FedEx plans to spin off its trucking unit by June 2026 to sharpen focus on its core business. Looking ahead, FedEx is positioning itself for long-term resilience through strategic restructuring and a sharper operational focus. While near-term volatility in trade policy and global demand may weigh on performance, the planned spinoff of its trucking business and ongoing efficiency initiatives could improve margins and agility. As international shipping patterns stabilize and e-commerce continues evolving, FedEx may be able to reclaim momentum and strengthen its competitive edge in the global logistics sector. 1Q26recommended trading range: $215 to $230. Neutral Outlook.
