Technical Analysis – 25 October 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS US)

• Shares closed at a high since August 2024. 20dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 35.0 Target 39.0, Stop 33.0
  

Wendys Co. (WEN US)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. 50dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 19.3 Target 21.3, Stop 18.3
  

^ Back To Top

Marco Polo Marine Ltd. (MPM SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and 50dEMA and is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 0.056, Target 0.062, Stop 0.053
  

Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd. (JCNC SP)

• Shares closed at a high since June 2024. 50dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 27.90 Target 29.50, Stop 27.10
  

^ Back To Top

Sands China Ltd (1928 HK)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA and the 20dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 19.10, Target 21.10, Stop 18.10
  

H World Group Ltd. (1179 HK)

• Shares closed above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 50dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 29.70, Target 32.70, Stop 28.20
  

^ Back To Top

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $13.65B, +1.3% YoY, beat estimates by $80M
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.30, beat estimates by $0.13
  
• FY24 Guidance: Expect FY24 adjusted diluted EPS to be between $1.35 and $1.60 vs $1.31 consensus; Remain on track to reduce total debt from peak levels by $15bn by year end 2025.
  
• Comment: American Airlines Group Inc. delivered stronger-than-expected results and raised its full-year profit outlook, citing improved pricing power and a recovery from earlier missteps in its sales strategy, which had driven away corporate clients. The airline’s efforts to boost margins initially involved reducing perks and discounts in contracts with corporate travel agencies and clients. However, this strategy backfired, allowing competitors to gain an edge. To regain its corporate customer base, the company has since renegotiated contracts with travel agencies and reinstated benefits programs for many of its business travelers. In the 3Q24, these efforts helped restore corporate relationships, and pricing power improved as the industry scaled back excess domestic capacity. Looking ahead, winter seasonality is expected to drive up travel demand, bolstered by robust consumer spending as interest rates decline. Despite these positives, the company forecasts a slight dip in total revenue per available seat mile (RASM)—a key measure of pricing power—by 1% to 3% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Additionally, unit costs are projected to rise by 4% to 6% during the same period. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $11.0 to $14.5. Neutral Outlook.
  

美国航空 (AAL)

• 24财年第三季营收：136.5亿美元，同比增幅1.3%，增预期8,000万美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.3美元，逊超预期0.13美元
  
• 24财年指引：预计24财年调整后的摊薄每股收益将在1.35美元至1.60美元之间，而市场预期为1.31美元；保持到2025年底将债务总额从峰值水平减少150亿美元的目标。
  
• 短评：美国航空集团公布了强于预期的业绩，并上调了全年利润预期，理由是定价权有所提高，而且公司从早先销售策略失误中恢复过来。销售策略失误曾导致公司客户流失。该航空公司提高利润率的努力最初包括减少与企业旅行社和客户签订的合同中的津贴和折扣。然而，这种策略适得其反，让竞争对手获得了优势。为了重新获得企业客户基础，该公司与旅行社重新谈判合同，并恢复了许多商务旅客的福利计划。在第三季度，这些努力帮助恢复了企业关系，随着行业缩减国内过剩产能，定价权得到了提高。展望未来，由于利率下降，消费者支出强劲，预计冬季季节性因素将推高旅游需求。尽管有这些积极因素，但该公司预测，2024年第四季度，每可用座位英里总收入（RASM）（衡量定价能力的关键指标）将略有下降，降幅为1%至3%。此外，预计同期单位成本将上升4%至6%。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：11.0至14.5美元。中性前景。
  

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $22.2B, +5.4% YoY, beat estimates by $70M
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.76, beat estimates by $0.14
  
• FY24 Guidance: Expect consolidated revenue to be approx. $91.1bn vs consensus of $91.87bn; Lift consolidated non-GAAP adjusted operating margin expectation to approx. 9.6%; Expect capital expenditures of approx. $4.0bn; Expect dividend payments to be around $5.4bn, subject to Board’s approval.
  
• Comment: UPS posted strong results, marking its first return to revenue and profit growth in two years, driven by rebounding volumes and effective cost management. In its core U.S. segment, volumes grew at the fastest pace in over three years, with a 6.5% increase in average daily volume, boosted by pricing improvements and additional air cargo demand. A significant portion of this growth came from China-based e-retailers Shein and Temu. The company also benefited from the expiration of significant upfront labor costs tied to its Teamsters contract, which passed its anniversary in August. Additionally, UPS expanded its air cargo capacity through a new agreement with the U.S. Postal Service, which took effect on September 30. The company expects this five-year contract with USPS to be profitable from the first year. Despite customers continuing to shift toward slower, more cost-effective deliveries in the wake of the pandemic e-commerce boom, UPS raised its full-year 2024 adjusted operating margin forecast. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $133 to $150. Positive Outlook.
  

联合包裹服务公司 (UPS)

• 24财年第三季营收：222亿美元，同比增幅5.4%，超预期7,000万美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.76美元，超预期0.14美元
  
• 24财年指引：预计综合收入约为。911亿美元，而市场预期为918.7亿美元；将综合Non-GAAP调整后的营业利润率预期提高至约9.6%；预计资本支出约为40亿美元；待董事会批准后，预计股息支付将在54亿美元左右。
  
• 短评：联合包裹服务公布了强劲的业绩，标志着其两年来首次实现收入和利润增长，这得益于业务量回升和有效的成本管理。在其核心的美国市场，业务量以三年多来最快的速度增长，平均日业务量增长了 6.5%，主要受到价格改善和额外空运需求的推动。来自中国电商平台 Shein 和 Temu 的业务为此次增长贡献了重要部分。此外，UPS 也从其与工会 Teamsters 的合同相关的前期劳动力成本到期中受益，该合同在今年 8 月满一年。此外，联合包裹服务 通过与美国邮政服务（USPS）达成的一项新协议扩大了其空运能力，该协议于 9 月 30 日生效。UPS 预计这项为期五年的 USPS 合同将从第一年开始盈利。尽管疫情后电子商务的客户继续倾向于选择更慢、更具成本效益的交付方式，但UPS仍上调了其 2024 全年的调整后营业利润率预测。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：133至150美元。积极前景。
  

Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK)

• 2Q25 Revenue: $1.31B, +20.2% YoY, beat estimates by $110M
  
• 2Q25 GAAP EPS: $1.59, beat estimates by $0.35
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expect net sales to increase approximately 12% to $4.8bn, vs consensus of $4.82bn; Expect gross margin to be in the range of 55% to 55.5%; SG&A expenses as a percentage of net sales is expected to be approx. 35%; Expect operating margin to be in the range of 20% to 20.5%; Expect effective tax rate to be in the range of 23% to 23.5%; Expect diluted EPS to be in the range of $5.15 to $5.25.
  
• Comment: Deckers Outdoor delivered strong results and raised its full-year sales forecast, driven by robust demand for its UGG boots and Hoka running shoes. Hoka sales surged nearly 35% in the second quarter, while UGG sales rose by 13%. The company has benefited from discerning global consumers willing to spend more on trendy, innovative footwear, alongside popular brands like New Balance and Roger Federer-backed On. Strong innovation at Hoka, in particular, has helped Deckers capture market share from larger competitors like Nike. Both the wholesale channels for Hoka and UGG have remained strong, with major retailers such as Dick’s Sporting Goods and Nordstrom expanding shelf space for these brands, and Amazon increasing their product offerings online. As the winter season approaches, the company anticipates a more promotional market but remains confident that its brands will continue to command premium pricing. Additionally, improved consumer spending, aided by falling interest rates, is expected to further boost Deckers’ performance. 3Q25 recommended trading range: $160 to $190. Positive Outlook.
  

德克斯户外运动 (DECK)

• 25财年第二季营收：131亿美元，同比增幅20.2%，超预期1.1亿美元
  
• 25财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：1.59美元，超预期0.35美元
  
• 25财年指引：预计净销售额将增长约12%，至48亿美元，而市场预期为48.2亿美元；预计毛利率在55%至55.5%之间；SG&A费用占净销售额的百分比预计约为35%；预计营业利润率将在20%至20.5%之间；预计有效税率在23%至23.5%之间；预计摊薄后每股收益将在5.15美元至5.25美元之间。
  
• 短评：德克斯户外运动公布了强劲的业绩，并上调了其全年销售预期，这主要得益于对 UGG 靴子和 Hoka 跑鞋的强劲需求。Hoka 销售在第二季度飙升了近 35%，而 UGG 销售增长了 13%。公司受益于全球消费者对时尚、创新鞋履的需求增加，这些消费者愿意为此支付更高的价格，类似品牌包括 New Balance 和由罗杰·费德勒支持的 On。尤其是 Hoka 的强劲创新帮助 Deckers 从像耐克这样的大型竞争对手手中抢占了市场份额。Hoka 和 UGG 的批发渠道持续表现强劲，主要零售商如 Dick’s Sporting Goods 和 Nordstrom 增加了这些品牌的货架空间，亚马逊也增加了在线产品供应。随着冬季的临近，公司预计市场将更加注重促销，但仍有信心其品牌将继续保持高端定价。此外，消费者支出增加，再加上利率下降的有利因素，预计将进一步推动德克斯的业绩提升。25财年第三季度建议交易区间：160至190美元。积极前景。
  

Western Digital Corp. (WDC)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $4.10B, +49.1% YoY, miss estimates by $20M
  
• 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.78, beat estimates by $0.07
  
• 2Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue to be in the range of $4.20bn to $4.40bn vs $4.34bn consensus; Expect gross margin to be between 37.0% to 39.0%; Expect operating expenses to be between $695mn to $715mn; Expect Non-GAAP EPS to be in the range of $1.75 to $2.05 vs consensus of $1.92.
  
• Comment: Western Digital Corp reported strong first-quarter 2025 profits, driven by robust demand for its data storage products from cloud service providers. The ongoing AI boom has fueled a resurgence in memory chip demand, as cloud providers expand infrastructure to support AI-driven applications. With the growing adoption of AI and the resulting expansion of the AI data cycle, Western Digital’s Flash and HDD product lines are well-positioned to seize significant opportunities in this space. The company also recently announced that its enterprise SSD memory storage devices have been certified to support Nvidia’s AI server systems, further enhancing its competitive edge in the AI market. Looking ahead, as interest rates decline, more companies are expected to adopt cloud services with integrated AI, increasing demand from cloud providers—a trend that is poised to benefit Western Digital. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $67 to $82. Positive Outlook.
  

西部数据 (WDC)

• 25财年第一季营收：41亿美元，同比增幅49.1%，逊预期2,000万美元
  
• 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.78美元，超预期0.07美元
  
• 25财年第二季指引：预计收入在42亿至44亿美元之间，对比市场共识43.4亿美元；预计毛利率在37.0%至39.0%之间；预计运营费用在6.95亿至7.15亿美元之间；预计Non-GAAP每股收益在1.75至2.05美元之间，对比市场共识1.92美元。
  
• 短评：西部数据报告了2025财年第一季度的强劲利润，这主要得益于云服务提供商对其数据存储产品的强劲需求。持续的AI热潮推动了内存芯片需求的回升，云服务商正在扩展基础设施以支持AI驱动的应用。随着AI的广泛应用以及由此带来的AI数据周期的扩展，公司的Flash和HDD产品线在该领域中具备了显著的机会。公司还最近宣布，其企业级SSD存储设备已通过认证支持 英伟达的AI服务器系统，进一步增强了其在AI市场的竞争优势。展望未来，随着利率下降，预计将有更多公司采用整合了 AI的云服务，这将增加来自云服务商的需求，这一趋势将有利于公司。25财年第二季度建议交易区间：67至82美元。积极前景。