Technical Analysis – 23 May 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Boeing Co. (BA US)

Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA. 5dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 186, Target 200, Stop 179

Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT US)

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Shares closed at a 3-week high above the 5dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 360, Target 380, Stop 350

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Singapore Exchange Ltd. (SGX SP)

Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 9.40, Target 9.80, Stop 9.00

Nanofilm Technologies International Ltd. (NANO SP)

Shares closed at a high since Feb 2024. 20dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 0.750, Target 0.790, Stop 0.730

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China Construction Bank Corp (939 HK)

Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5wEMA.
MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
Long – Entry 5.86, Target 6.24, Stop 5.67

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Bank of China Ltd (3988 HK)

Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5wEMA.
MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
Long – Entry 3.88, Target 4.20, Stop 3.72

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Li Auto Inc (LI)

1Q24 Revenue: $3.6B, +36.4% YoY, miss estimates by $200M
1Q24 Non-GAAP EPADS: $0.17, miss estimates by $0.03
2Q24 Guidance: Expect deliveries of vehicles to be between 105,000 and 110,000 vehicles, representing an increase of 21.3% to 27.1% YoY. Total revenue is expected to be between RMB29.9bn (US$4.1bn) and RMB31.4bn (US$4.3bn), representing an increase of 4.2% to 9.4% YoY.
Comment: Li Auto’s first-quarter vehicle sales of RMB24.25bn missed analyst estimates of RMB26.71bn. Net income was RMB1.3bn, also short of the RMB1.0bn forecast. The company delivered 80,400 vehicles, including the first shipments of its battery-electric MEGA van, but demand was weak, forcing a reduction in delivery targets. Gross margin was 20.6%, consistent with last year. Li Auto now expects second-quarter revenue between RMB29.9bn and RMB31.4bn, below the RMB38.6bn forecast, and deliveries between 105,000 and 110,000 units, versus the expected 130,692. The company faces increased competition and a price war in China’s EV market, leading to reported job cuts of nearly 20% of its workforce. With new players entering China’s EV market and price wars intensifying, Li Auto will continue to face tough competition in the current quarter. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $17 to $24. Negative Outlook.

理想汽车 (LI)

24财年第一季营收：36.0亿美元，同比增幅36.4%，逊预期2.0亿美元
24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.17美元，逊预期0.03美元
24财年第二季指引：预计汽车交付量将在10.5万至11万辆之间，同比增长21.3%至27.1%。总收入预计在299亿元人民币(41亿美元)至314亿元人民币(43亿美元)之间，同比增长4.2%至9.4%。
短评：理想第一季度汽车销售额为242.5亿元，低于分析师预期的267.1亿元。净利润为人民币13亿元，也低于预期的人民币10亿元。该公司交付了8.04万辆汽车，其中包括首批电池电动MEGA面包车，但需求疲软，迫使其降低了交付目标。毛利率为20.6%，与去年持平。理想汽车目前预计第二季度收入在299亿元至314亿元人民币之间，低于386亿元人民币的预期，交付量在10.5万至11万辆之间，而预期为130,692辆。该公司在中国电动汽车市场面临着日益激烈的竞争和价格战，据报道，该公司裁员近20%。随着新厂家进入中国电动汽车市场，以及价格战的加剧，理想汽车在本季度将继续面临激烈的竞争。25财年第二季度建议交易区间：17美至24美元。负面前景。

Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW)

3Q24 Revenue: $1.98B, +15.1%YoY, beat estimates by $10M
3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.32, beat estimates by $0.07
4Q24 Guidance: Expect total billings in the range of $3.43B to $3.48B, representing YoY growth of between 9% and 10%. Expect revenue to be in the range of $2.15B to $2.17B, an increase of 10% to 11%, and non-GAAP EPS to be in the range of $1.40 to $1.42 a share, a decrease of 1% to 3% vs consensus of $2.16B and $1.41 respectively. FY24 Guidance: Expect billings to be in the range of $10.13B to $10.18B, an increase of 10% to 11% YoY. Expect revenue in the range of $7.99B to $8.01B vs. consensus of $7.99B, representing YoY growth of 16%, and non-GAAP EPS to be in the range of $5.56 to $5.58 vs consensus of $5.52. Adjusted free cash flow margin to be in the range of 38.5% to 39.0%.
Comment: Palo Alto Networks delivered a 15% revenue increase to US$1.98bn in the third quarter, surpassing analysts’ estimates, and reported a 47% increase in next-generation security annual recurring revenue. The company observed a continuous wave of cyberattacks, especially targeting large enterprises and critical infrastructure. However, its fourth-quarter billings forecast fell short of investor expectations. Cautious corporate spending on cybersecurity due to economic uncertainties and inflation is impacting firms like Palo Alto Networks. Billings growth was modest at 3%, due to more customers opting for deferred payments. The company completed 900 platformization sales by 3Q24, with plans to reach 2,500-plus by FY30. Additionally, clients are diversifying their cybersecurity investments to avoid over-reliance on a single vendor. The company forecasted fourth-quarter billings between US$3.43bn and US$3.48bn, aligning closely with analysts’ estimates. Annual billings are now expected to be between US$10.13bn and US$10.18bn. Despite having announced AI-powered security products to protect against AI threats and launched new capabilities in their SASE and Prisma Cloud offerings, the lackluster guidance provided will impact investors’ confidence and has raised concerns about decelerating growth in the cybersecurity sector. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $280 to $320. Neutral Outlook.

派拓网络 (PANW)

24财年第三季营收：19.8亿美元，同比增幅15.1%，超预期1,000万美元
24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.32美元，超预期0.07美元
24财年第四季指引：预计总营收将在34.3亿美元至34.8亿美元之间，同比增长9%至10%。预计营收将在21.5亿美元至21.7亿美元之间，增长10%至11%，Non-GAAP每股收益将在1.40美元至1.42美元之间，比预期的21.6亿美元和1.41美元分别下降1%至3%。24财年指引：预计账单在101.3亿美元至101.8亿美元之间，同比增长10%至11%。预计营收在79.9亿美元至80.1亿美元之间，而市场预期为79.9亿美元，同比增长16%，Non-GAAP每股收益在5.56美元至5.58美元之间，而市场预期为5.52美元。调整后的自由现金流利润率在38.5%至39.0%之间。
短评：派拓网络第三季度的收入增长了15%，达到19.8亿美元，超过了分析师的预期，下一代安全年度经常性收入增长了47%。该公司观察到持续的网络攻击浪潮，尤其是针对大型企业和关键基础设施的攻击。然而，该公司第四季度的营收预期低于投资者的预期。由于经济不确定性和通货膨胀，企业在网络安全方面的谨慎支出正在影响派拓网络等公司。由于更多的客户选择延期付款，账单的增长率仅为3%。截至24年第三季度，该公司完成了900台平台销售，计划到30财年达到2500台以上。此外，客户正在多样化他们的网络安全投资，以避免过度依赖单一供应商。该公司预计第四季度营收在34.3亿美元至34.8亿美元之间，与分析师的预期基本一致。目前预计每年的账单将在101.3亿美元到101. 8亿美元之间。尽管已经宣布了基于人工智能的安全产品来抵御人工智能威胁，并在其SASE和Prisma Cloud产品中推出了新功能，但提供的低迷指导将影响投资者的信心，并引发了对网络安全领域增长放缓的担忧。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：280美至320美元。中性前景。

Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM)

1Q24 Revenue: $1.6B, +29%YoY, miss estimates by $20M
1Q24 Diluted EPADS: $0.88, beats estimates by $0.31
FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
Comment: Trip.com reported mixed results, highlighting a notable surge in both domestic and outbound travel demand in China since early 2024. This growth has been driven by a more stable supply chain and further relaxation of visa requirements. Domestic hotel and air bookings each experienced over a 20% year-on-year increase, while outbound hotel and air bookings soared by more than 100% year-on-year, indicating strong growth momentum in the first quarter of 2024. The resilience of 1Q24 travel demand is evident, with increasing travel volumes throughout the period and during key holiday seasons. Additionally, China’s civil aviation authorities have announced a commitment to significantly boost the frequency of international passenger flights this year, aiming to further revive international air travel. Airlines are gradually ramping up their flight schedules to meet the rising demand. With the upcoming summer holidays, travel volumes are expected to remain robust. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $50 to $67. Positive Outlook.

携程 (TCOM)

24财年第一季营收：16.0亿美元，同比增幅29.0%，逊预期2,000万美元
24财年第一季稀释后每股盈利：0.88美元，超预期0.31美元
24财年指引：不提供指引。
短评：携程报告的业绩喜忧参半，突显出自2024年初以来中国国内和出境游需求的显著增长。这一增长是由更稳定的供应链和进一步放宽签证要求推动的。国内酒店和机票预订量同比增长均超过20%，出境酒店和机票预订量同比飙升超过100%，显示出2024年第一季度强劲的增长势头。24年第一季度旅游需求的弹性是显而易见的，整个期间和关键假期期间的旅游数量都在增加。此外，中国民航当局已宣布承诺今年大幅提高国际客运航班的频率，旨在进一步振兴国际航空旅行。航空公司正在逐步增加航班时刻表，以满足不断增长的需求。随着即将到来的暑假，预计旅游数量将保持强劲。 24财年第二季度建议交易区间：50美至67美元。积极前景。