Technical Analysis – 21 October 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG US)

• Shares closed at a high since May 2024 with a surge in volume. 50dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 7.10 Target 7.90, Stop 6.70
  

Endeavour Silver Corp. (EXK US)

• Shares closed at a high since July 2024 with a surge in volume.
  
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 4.60 Target 5.20, Stop 4.30
  

^ Back To Top

StarHub Ltd. (STH SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 1.22, Target 1.28, Stop 1.19
  

Banyan Tree Holdings Ltd. (BTH SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with more volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 0.350 Target 0.380, Stop 0.335
  

^ Back To Top

Agricultural Bank of China Ltd (1288 HK)

• Shares closed at the 52-week high above the 5wEMA with rising volume.
  
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 3.92, Target 4.24, Stop 3.76
  

Bank of Communications Co Ltd (3328 HK)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5wEMA with an increase in volume.
  
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  
• Long – Entry 6.20, Target 6.70, Stop 5.95
  

^ Back To Top

Procter & Gamble Co. (PG)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $21.74B, -0.6% YoY, miss estimates by $240M
  
• 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.93, beat estimates by $0.03
  
• FY25 Guidance: Maintain FY25 diluted net EPS growth to be in the range of 10% to 12% vs FY24 net EPS of $6.02; maintained FY25 core EPS growth to be in the range of 5% to 7% vs FY24 core EPS of $6.59, equating to a range of $6.91 to $7.05 per share, midpoint of $6.98 vs a consensus of $6.95. P&G now expects a commodity cost headwind of approximately $200mn after tax for FY25, which equates to a headwind of $0.08 per share; expects core effective tax to be in the range of 20% to 21% for FY25; expects capital spending to be in the range of 4% – 5% of FY25 net sales.
  
• Comment: Procter & Gamble (P&G) reported stronger-than-expected earnings but faced weaker-than-anticipated revenue, as U.S. consumers, its largest market, reduced purchases of name-brand products. Additionally, lower demand in China weighed on sales. In the fiscal first quarter, P&G’s organic sales in Greater China, its second-largest market, dropped 15%. With falling home prices and rising unemployment in China, consumers have cut back on spending, impacting sales of key products like shampoo, diapers, and other household staples. While P&G’s executives remain optimistic about China’s long-term potential, they don’t foresee a demand recovery for several more quarters. Recent economic stimulus measures introduced by the Chinese government are expected to support P&G’s growth over the long run. In the U.S., organic sales growth slowed to 4% in the first quarter, down from 7% a year earlier. P&G’s reliance on price increases waned, although volumes rose. Continued economic uncertainty in the U.S. has driven some lower-income consumers toward cheaper alternatives, including private-label brands and discounted competitors. While volume growth is expected as interest rates decline, overall demand is likely to remain soft in the near term. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $165 to $180. Neutral Outlook.
  

保洁公司 (PG)

• 25财年第一季营收：217.4亿美元，同比跌幅0.6%，逊预期2.4亿美元
  
• 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.93美元，超预期0.03美元
  
• 25财年指引：维持25财年稀释后每股净收益增长在10%至12%之间，而24财年每股净收益为6.02美元；维持25财年核心每股收益增长在5%至7%之间，而24财年核心每股收益为6.59美元，相当于每股6.91美元至7.05美元，中间值为6.98美元，而市场普遍预期为6.95美元。宝洁目前预计，25财年大宗商品成本不利因素约为税后2亿美元，相当于每股0.08美元的利空；预计25财年核心有效税率将在20%至21%之间；预计资本支出将在25财年净销售额的4%至5%之间。
  
• 短评：宝洁公司公布了强于预期的收益，但营收低于预期，原因是该公司最大的市场美国消费者减少了对其品牌产品的购买。此外，中国需求下降也影响了销量。今年第一财季，宝洁在其第二大市场大中华区的有机销售额下降了15%。随着中国房价下跌和失业率上升，消费者削减了支出，影响了洗发水、尿布和其他家庭必需品等关键产品的销售。尽管宝洁高管对中国的长期潜力仍持乐观态度，但他们预计未来几个季度内需求不会复苏。中国政府最近推出的经济刺激措施预计将支持宝洁的长期增长。在美国，一季度有机销售额增幅从上年同期的7%降至4%。宝洁对涨价的依赖减弱了，尽管销量有所上升。美国经济持续的不确定性促使一些低收入消费者转向更便宜的替代品，包括自有品牌和打折的竞争对手。虽然随着利率下降，销量有望增长，但短期内整体需求可能仍将保持疲软。25财年第二季度建议交易区间：165至180美元。中性前景。
  

American Express Co. (AXP)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $16.64B, +8.2% YoY, in-line with estimates
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.49, beat estimates by $0.21
  
• FY24 Guidance: Raise full-year EPS guidance to $13.75-$14.05, up from $13.30-$13.80, vs $13.28 consensus. Maintain expectations of full-year revenue growth to be around 9% vs 9.07% consensus.
  
• Comment: American Express reported third-quarter profit above Wall Street expectations, driven by disciplined expense management despite softer customer spending. It reported earnings of US$3.49 per share, beating the US$3.28 expected by analysts. Total expenses came in lower than anticipated at US$12.08bn, while revenue grew 8% to US$16.64bn, in line with estimates. Cardholder spending rose 6% YoY to US$387.3bn, and card member loans increased 14%, generating US$6.15bn in interest income, up 17% from the previous year. American Express also highlighted growth among millennial and Gen Z consumers, who represent 80% of new US Consumer Gold Card accounts. The company benefited from its affluent customer base, allowing it to maintain lower provisions for credit losses compared to competitors serving lower-income customers. American Express managed expenses related to incentives and rewards effectively, enabling it to surpass profit forecasts despite the slower pace of revenue growth. The company maintained its 2024 revenue forecast and raised its earnings forecast to a range of US$13.75 to US$14.05 per share, up from its previous estimate of US$13.30 to US$13.80 per share. While cost-cutting measures have been effective, long-term growth may require stronger revenue increases. Nonetheless, the company remains optimistic about future opportunities. Looking ahead, American Express plans to focus on expanding its cardholder base, particularly among younger consumers, and continue enhancing offerings in popular spending categories like dining and travel. With strategic investments in digital tools and targeted marketing, the company aims to drive customer engagement and spending. As the holiday season approaches, we anticipate cardholder spending to increase in the near-term, despite ongoing inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $270 to $300. Positive Outlook.
  

美国运通 (AXP)

• 24财年第三季营收：166.4亿美元，同比增幅8.2%，符合预期
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.49美元，超预期0.21美元
  
• 24财年指引：将全年每股收益预期从13.30至13.80美元上调至13.75至14.05美元，高于市场预期的13.28美元。维持全年营收增长预期在9%左右，而市场普遍预期为9.07%。
  
• 短评：美国运通公布第三季获利高于华尔街预期，这得益于在客户支出疲软的情况下严格的支出管理。该公司公布的每股收益为3.49美元，高于分析师预期的3.28美元。总开支为120.8亿美元，低于预期，而收入增长8%至166.4亿美元，与预期相符。持卡人支出同比增长6%，达到3873亿美元，持卡人贷款增长14%，产生61.5亿美元的利息收入，比上年增长17%。美国运通还强调了千禧一代和Z世代消费者的增长，他们占美国消费者金卡新账户的80%。该公司受益于其富裕的客户群，与服务于低收入客户的竞争对手相比，它可以维持较低的信贷损失拨备。美国运通有效地管理了与激励和奖励相关的费用，使其在收入增长放缓的情况下仍能超过利润预期。该公司维持其2024年的收入预测，并将每股收益预测从之前的每股13.30美元至13.80美元上调至13.75美元至14.05美元。尽管削减成本的措施行之有效，但长期增长可能需要更强劲的收入增长。尽管如此，该公司仍对未来的机会持乐观态度。展望未来，美国运通计划将重点放在扩大持卡人基础上，尤其是在年轻消费者中，并继续在餐饮和旅游等受欢迎的消费类别中增加服务。通过对数字工具和目标营销的战略投资，该公司旨在推动客户参与和支出。随着假日季节的临近，我们预计持卡人的支出在短期内会增加，尽管通胀压力和经济不确定性持续存在。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：270至300美元。积极前景。