Technical Analysis – 19 February 2025

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Intel Corp. (INTC US)

• Shares closed at a high since August 2024 above the 200dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 26.50 Target 30.50 Stop 24.50
  

HP Inc. (HPQ US)

• Shares closed at a high since December 2024 above the 200dEMA. 5dEMA recently crossed the 20dEMA and is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 34.0 Target 38.0 Stop 32.0
  

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AEM Holdings Ltd. (AEM SP)

• Shares closed at a high since January 2025 with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
  
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 1.60, Target 1.74, Stop 1.53
  

UMS Integration Ltd. (UMSH SP)

• Shares closed at a high since October 2024 with a surge in volume.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 1.07 Target 1.17, Stop 1.02
  

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Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Co Ltd (3692 HK)

• Shares closed above the 50dEMA. The 5dEMA crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• RSI is constructive while MACD is negative.
  
• Long – Entry 17.9, Target 19.5, Stop 17.1
  

China Medical System Holdings Ltd (867 HK)

• Shares closed at a 3-month high above the 200dEMA with an increase in volume. The 20dEMA crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 7.9 Target 8.5, Stop 7.6
  

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Baidu Inc (BIDU)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $4.67B, -2.0% YoY, beat estimates by $70M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPADS: $2.63, beat estimates by $0.78
  
• FY25 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  
• Comment: Baidu delivered better-than-expected results but posted its third consecutive quarterly revenue decline, highlighting ongoing pressures on its core internet search and AI businesses amid intensifying competition. The generative AI boom in China drove a 26% year-over-year surge in Baidu’s December-quarter cloud revenue—more than double the growth rate of the prior quarter. However, this expansion, fueled by demand from startups and developers for computing power, was overshadowed by declining margins and broader weaknesses in Baidu’s core operations. In its search business, Baidu continues to lose traffic and advertising revenue to social platforms like Xiaohongshu and ByteDance Ltd.’s Douyin, while also contending with macroeconomic headwinds. The company’s outlook remains uncertain, with its decision to open source its foundation model and discontinue fees for its Ernie bot likely exacerbating monetization challenges in China’s fiercely competitive AI landscape. Baidu’s search engine is expected to remain under sustained pressure in the near term. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $80 to $100. Neutral Outlook.
  

百度 (BIDU)

• 24财年第四季营收：46.7亿美元，同比下降2.0%，超出预期7000万美元
  
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股收益：2.63美元，超出预期0.78美元
  
• 25财年全年指引：未提供指引。
  
• 短评： 百度业绩好于预期，但营收连续第三个季度下滑，凸显出在竞争日益激烈的环境下，其核心互联网搜索和人工智能业务持续承压。中国生成式人工智能的蓬勃发展推动百度12月当季云收入同比增长26%，超过上一季度两倍的增速。然而，这一扩张受到初创企业和开发者对算力的需求推动，但利润率下降和百度核心业务的整体疲软使其黯然失色。在其搜索业务中，百度继续失去流量和广告收入给像小红书和字节跳动旗下的抖音等社交平台，同时还要应对宏观经济的不利因素。该公司前景依然不明朗，其决定开源其基础模型并取消对其Ernie机器人收费的做法，可能会加剧在中国竞争激烈的AI领域中的盈利挑战。预计短期内，百度的搜索引擎将继续面临持续的压力。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：80至100美元。中性前景。
  

Arista Networks (ANET)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $1.93B, +25.3% YoY, beat estimates by $30M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.65, beat estimates by $0.08
  
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expects revenue between $1.93bn to $1.97bn, midpoint og $1.95bn above consensus of $1.90bn; non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 63%; and non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 44%.
  
• Comment: Arista Networks delivered strong results and provided an upbeat outlook, fueled by rising demand for AI-driven networking infrastructure. The company’s performance underscores the growing need for advanced networking solutions to support increasingly complex AI workloads. This momentum has also enabled Arista to continue investing in strategic initiatives, including artificial intelligence, despite broader economic uncertainty. Looking ahead to 2025, Arista is well-positioned to benefit from sustained demand for high-performance networking platforms. Its growth prospects are further reinforced by recent commitments from key customers—including Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Google LLC, and Amazon Web Services Inc.—all of whom announced plans earlier this month to ramp up capital expenditures on AI infrastructure. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $100 to $120. Positive Outlook.
  

Arista Networks (ANET)

• 24财年第四季营收：19.3亿美元，同比增长25.3%，超出预期3000万美元
  
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股收益：0.65美元，超出预期0.08美元
  
• 25财年第一季指引：预计营收在19.3亿至19.7亿美元之间，中值为19.5亿美元，高于市场预期的19亿美元；非GAAP毛利率约为63%；非GAAP营业利润率约为44%。
  
• 短评：Arista Networks业绩强劲，前景乐观，这得益于市场对人工智能驱动的网络基础设施的需求不断增长。该公司业绩凸显了市场对先进网络解决方案的需求日益增长，以支持日益复杂的人工智能工作负载。尽管宏观经济存在不确定性，但这一势头也使Arista能够继续投资于包括人工智能在内的战略计划。展望2025年，Arista有望从市场对高性能网络平台的持续需求中获益。主要客户（包括Meta Platforms、微软、谷歌和亚马逊网络服务公司）最近的承诺进一步增强了其增长前景，这些公司都在本月早些时候宣布了增加人工智能基础设施资本支出的计划。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：100至120美元。积极前景。
  

Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $6.84B, -9.2% YoY, miss estimates by $300M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.80, beat estimates by $0.13
  
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expects production of between 1.37 and 1.41 MMboepd, falling short of Wall Street expectations of 1.43 MMboepd.
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expects to spend between $7.4B and $7.6B, up about 10% from last year at mid-point.
  
• Divided: Raised its quarterly dividend by 9% to $0.24 per share.
  
• Comment: Occidental Petroleum reported Q4 adjusted earnings of US$0.80 per share, beating estimates, with production up 18.6% YoY. However, it posted a net loss of US$297mn due to environmental liabilities and lower prices. It delivered revenue of US$6.84bn lower than estimates. The company announced US$1.2bn in asset sales to reduce debt after its CrownRock acquisition, but its Q1 production forecast of between 1.37 and 1.41 MMboepd missed expectations of 1.43 MMboepd. The company Occidental raised its dividend by 9% to US$0.24 per share but expects higher capital spending of up to US$7.6bn in FY25. Occidental plans to focus on deleveraging through asset sales while maintaining disciplined capital allocation. While near-term production headwinds and potential growth concerns may weigh on investor sentiment, Occidental aims to navigate market volatility and leverage strategic acquisitions for long-term growth. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $48 to $52. Neutral Outlook.
  

西方石油公司 (OXY)

• 24财年第四季营收： 68.4亿美元，同比下降9.2%，比预期低3亿美元
  
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股收益： 0.80美元，比预期高0.13美元
  
• 25财年第一季指引： 预计产量在137万桶/日至141万桶/日之间，低于华尔街预期的143万桶/日。
  
• 25财年指引： 预计支出在74亿至76亿美元之间，中值比去年高出约10%。
  
• 股息： 季度股息提高9%至每股0.24美元。
  
• 短评： 西方石油公司公布第四季度调整后每股收益为0.80美元，超出预期，产量同比增长18.6%。但由于环境负债和油价下跌，该公司公布净亏损2.97亿美元。营收为68.4亿美元，低于预期。该公司宣布出售12亿美元资产，以减少收购CrownRock后的债务，但其第一季度产量预期在137万桶/日至141万桶/日之间，低于预期的143万桶/日。西方石油公司将季度股息提高了9%，至每股0.24美元，但预计25财年资本支出将高达76亿美元。西方石油公司计划专注于通过资产出售来降低杠杆率，同时保持严格的资本配置。虽然近期产量面临逆风，且潜在的增长担忧可能打压投资者情绪，但西方石油公司旨在应对市场波动，并利用战略收购来实现长期增长。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：48至52美元。中性前景。
  

Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $1.86B, -4.6% YoY, miss estimates by $50M
  
• 1Q25 GAAP EPS: $1.75, miss estimates by $0.29
  
• FY25 Guidance: Reaffirmed its full-year guidance, expecting to deliver between 11,200 and 11,600 homes at an average price of $945,000 to $965,000.
  
• Comment: Toll Brothers’ 1Q25 results fell short of expectations, with revenue at US$1.86bn. While new orders grew, net signed contract value rose 12% to US$2.31bn, profitability declined due to US$22.6mn in impairments and a delayed joint venture sale. Home sales revenue dropped 5% despite a 3% increase in deliveries, reflecting a lower average selling price. The company reaffirmed full-year guidance, citing strong land holdings of 77,700 lots and positive long-term housing trends, while focusing on strategic pricing and incentives to balance sales pace and profitability. Toll Brothers is positioned for steady growth despite near-term profitability challenges. With a strong land portfolio, disciplined pricing strategies, and a focus on the luxury market, the company aims to navigate affordability concerns while maintaining its premium brand. Favourable long-term housing trends, such as structural undersupply and demographic tailwinds, support the outlook. By optimizing incentives and managing community expansions strategically, we anticipate sustained demand and opportunities to capitalise on the evolving housing market. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $110 to $125. Neutral Outlook.
  

托尔兄弟公司 (TOL)

• 25财年第一季营收： 18.6亿美元，同比下降4.6%，比预期低5000万美元
  
• 25财年第一季GAAP每股收益： 1.75美元，比预期低0.29美元
  
• 25财年指引： 重申全年指引，预计交付11200至11600套住宅，平均价格在94.5万至96.5万美元之间。
  
• 短评： 托尔兄弟公司25财年第一季度业绩未达预期，营收为18.6亿美元。虽然新订单增长，净签约合同额增长12%至23.1亿美元，但由于2260万美元的减值和合资企业出售延迟，盈利能力有所下降。尽管交付量增长了3%，但由于平均售价下降，房屋销售收入下降了5%。该公司重申了全年指引，并指出其拥有77700块土地的强大土地储备以及积极的长期住房趋势，同时专注于战略定价和激励措施，以平衡销售速度和盈利能力。尽管近期盈利能力面临挑战，但托尔兄弟公司的定位是实现稳健增长。凭借强大的土地储备、严谨的定价策略以及对豪华市场的关注，该公司旨在应对可负担性担忧，同时保持其高端品牌。有利的长期住房趋势，如结构性供应不足和人口结构利好因素，为其前景提供了支持。通过优化激励措施和战略性地管理社区扩张，我们预计需求将持续增长，并有机会利用不断发展的房地产市场。25财年第二季度建议交易区间：110至125美元。中性前景。