Technical Analysis – 18 October 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Cleveland-Cliffs, Inc. (CLF US)

• Shares closed at a high since August 2024 with more in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA and the 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 13.4 Target 15.4, Stop 12.4
  

Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD US)

• Shares closed at a high since May 2024 with a surge in volume. 50dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 134 Target 144, Stop 129
  

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Singapore Telecommunications Ltd. (ST SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  
• MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 3.22, Target 3.40, Stop 3.13
  

ComfortDelGro Corp Ltd. (CD SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume.
  
• MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is turning constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 1.45 Target 1.53, Stop 1.41
  

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Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Co Ltd (3692 HK)

• Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
  
• RSI is constructive, while MACD is negative.
  
• Long – Entry 20.6, Target 22.2, Stop 19.8
  

Manulife Financial Corp (945 HK)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5wEMA.
  
• MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 235, Target 255, Stop 225
  

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $23.5B, +36.0% YoY, beat estimates by $210M
  
• 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $1.94, beat estimates by $0.15
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue to be between US$26.1 billion and US$26.9 billion; Expect gross profit margin to be between 57.0% and 59.0%; Expect operating profit margin to be between 46.5% and 48.5%, assuming on the exchange rate assumption of 1 US dollar to 32.0 NT dollars.
  
• Comment: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) delivered strong quarterly results, driven by robust demand for smartphones and AI-related applications, particularly for its industry-leading 3nm and 5nm technologies. The company continues to experience exceptionally high demand for AI processors, with management now forecasting that AI-related revenue will more than triple this year, contributing to a mid-teens percentage of total revenue. TSMC also reaffirmed plans to more than double its advanced chip packaging capacity, known as CoWoS, by the end of 2024, as demand continues to outpace supply. Management emphasized that AI demand remains sustainable, as it leads to tangible productivity gains for both TSMC’s R&D and its largest customers. Looking ahead to Q4 2024, the company expects continued strong demand for its leading-edge process technologies, further boosting optimism and investor confidence in the AI sector. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $190 to $240. Positive Outlook.
  

台积电 (TSM)

• 24财年第三季营收：235亿美元，同比增幅36.0%，超预期2.1亿美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.94美元，超预期0.15美元
  
• 24财年第四季指引：预计收入在261亿至269亿美元之间；预计毛利率在57.0%至59.0%之间；假设汇率为1美元兑32.0新台币，预计营业利润率在46.5%至48.5%之间。
  
• 短评：台积电公布了强劲的季度业绩，这得益于智能手机和人工智能相关应用的强劲需求，尤其是其行业领先的3纳米和5纳米技术。该公司对人工智能处理器的需求仍然非常高，管理层现在预测，今年人工智能相关收入将增长两倍以上，占总收入的比例将达到15%左右。台积电还重申了到2024年底将其先进芯片封装产能增加一倍以上的计划，因为需求继续超过供应。管理层强调，人工智能需求仍然是可持续的，因为它为台积电的研发部门和最大的客户带来了切实的生产力提升。展望2024年第四季度，该公司预计其领先的工艺技术需求将持续强劲，进一步提振投资者对人工智能领域的乐观情绪和信心。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：190至240美元。积极前景。
  

Blackstone Inc. (BX)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $3.66B, +57.8% YoY, beat estimates by $1.3B
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP DEPS: $1.01, beat estimates by $0.08
  
• 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $1.02
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  
• 3Q24 Dividend: Declare $0.86/share quarterly dividend, 4.9% increase from prior dividend of $0.82; Forward yield 2.15%; Payable Nov. 4; for shareholders of record Oct. 28; ex-div Oct. 28.
  
• Comment: Blackstone reported a strong set of results, with assets under management (AUM) reaching a record $1.1 trillion and fund values rising across the board. The company experienced broad-based growth, highlighting $41 billion in inflows during the third quarter while deploying and committing $54 billion in capital—the highest in over two years—driven by a resurgence in dealmaking as the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates and the economic outlook remained favorable. Private equity funds appreciated by 6.2%, and infrastructure funds grew by 5.5%, marking Blackstone’s highest level of fund appreciation in three years. Notable deals in the quarter included a $16 billion acquisition of Australia’s AirTrunk, expanding Blackstone’s presence in the data center market supporting cloud services and AI, and an $8.4 billion acquisition of U.S. software firm Smartsheet, in partnership with Vista Equity Partners. Looking ahead to Q4 2024, the ongoing rate cut cycle is expected to further stimulate dealmaking activity, positioning Blackstone for continued growth. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $155 to $200. Positive Outlook.
  

黑石集团 (BX)

• 24财年第三季营收：36.6亿美元，同比增幅57.8%，超预期13亿美元
  
• 24财年第三季GAAP可分配每股盈利：1.01美元，超预期0.08美元
  
• 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：1.02美元
  
• 24财年第四季指引：不提供指引。
  
• 24财年第三季股息：宣布派发每股0.86美元的季度股息，较先前派发的0.82美元股息增加4.9%；远期股息率为2.15%；11月4日为付息款日；10月28日为股东登记日和除息日。
  
• 短评：黑石公布了一系列强劲的业绩，其管理的资产达到创纪录的1.1万亿美元，基金价值全面上升。该公司经历了广泛的增长，第三季度流入410亿美元，同时部署和投入了540亿美元的资本，这是两年多来的最高水平，这是由于美国联邦储备委员会降息和经济前景依然良好导致交易活动复苏。私募股权基金升值6.2%，基础设施基金增长5.5%，这是黑石三年来基金升值的最高水平。本季度值得注意的交易包括以160亿美元收购澳大利亚AirTrunk，扩大黑石在支持云服务和人工智能的数据中心市场的影响力，以及与Vista Equity Partners合作以84亿美元收购美国软件公司Smartsheet。展望2024年第四季度，正在进行的降息周期预计将进一步刺激交易活动，使黑石集团保持持续增长。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：155至200美元。积极前景。
  

Netflix, Inc (NFLX)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $9.82B, +15.0% YoY, beat estimates by $50M
  
• 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $5.40, beat estimates by $0.28
  
• FY24 Guidance: Revised revenue growth upwards to 15%, from previous range of 14% to 15%, and operating margin of 27%, previously 26%. Ad tech platform on track to launch in Canda in Q4.
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expect revenue of $43B to $44B, vs consensus of $38.73B, representing a growth of 11% to 13% off FY24 guidance of $38.9B, driven by healthy increase in paid membership and ARM. Operating margin of 28% vs forecast of 27% in FY24.
  
• Comment: In the third quarter, Netflix earned US$5.40 per share, surpassing the expected US$5.12, with revenue rising to US$9.825bn, slightly above forecasts. Operating margins increased to 30%, up from 22% last year. While subscriber gains exceeded expectations by over 1mn, with 5.1mn new streaming subscribers, they were lower than the 8.76mn added in the same quarter last year. Netflix anticipates even stronger subscriber growth during the holiday season, driven by the return of popular content like the Korean drama “Squid Game.” As subscriber growth slows, Netflix is shifting its focus to increasing revenue and profit margins. The company plans to stop reporting subscriber numbers next year and highlight the success of its ad-supported plans, which accounted for over 50% of new sign-ups in markets where available. Netflix expects stronger customer growth in the final quarter, aided by new content and price increases in select markets. However, it does not anticipate advertising to become a primary growth driver until 2026. Looking ahead, Netflix will continue focusing on expanding its revenue through its ad-supported tier while leveraging popular content releases to drive subscriber growth during the holiday season. Additionally, the company is expected to push further into live events, including sports, as part of its strategy to diversify content offerings and attract more advertisers. Netflix remains committed to adding value to its service and has declined bundling with other streaming platforms. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $700 to $750. Positive Outlook.
  

奈飞 (NFLX)

• 24财年第三季营收：98.2亿美元，同比增幅15.0%，超预期5,000万美元
  
• 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：5.4美元，超预期0.28美元
  
• 24财年第四季指引：将收入增长率从之前的14%至15%上调至15%，营业利润率从之前的26%上调至27%。广告技术平台有望于第四季度在加拿大推出。
  
• 25财年指引：预计营收为430亿至440亿美元，高于市场预期的387.3亿美元，较24财年389亿美元的预期增长11%至13%，主要得益于付费会员和平均每会员收入的健康增长。营业利润率为28%，而24财年预计为27%。
  
• 短评：第三季度，奈飞每股盈利5.40美元，超过预期的5.12美元，营收增至98.25亿美元，略高于预期。营业利润率从去年的22%上升至30%。尽管用户增长超过了100万，流媒体新用户达到510万，但仍低于去年同期的876万。奈飞预计，受韩剧《鱿鱼游戏》等热门内容回归的推动，假日季的订户增长将更为强劲。随着用户增长放缓，奈飞正将重点转向增加收入和利润率。该公司计划明年停止报告用户数量，并强调其广告支持计划的成功，在现有市场中，广告支持计划占新注册用户的50%以上。奈飞预计，在新内容和部分市场价格上涨的推动下，最后一个季度的客户增长将更为强劲。然而，该公司预计，在2026年之前，广告不会成为主要的增长动力。展望未来，奈飞将继续专注于通过广告支持层扩大收入，同时利用热门内容的发布来推动假期期间的用户增长。此外，该公司预计将进一步推动包括体育在内的现场活动，作为其内容多样化和吸引更多广告商战略的一部分。奈飞仍然致力于为其服务增值，并拒绝与其他流媒体平台捆绑销售。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：700至750美元。积极前景。
  

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $2.04B, +17.2% YoY, beat estimates by $30M
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.84, beat estimates by $0.20
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  
• Comment: Intuitive Surgical surpassed Wall Street expectations for its third-quarter profit, driven by strong demand for its da Vinci surgical robots used in minimally invasive procedures. The company reported adjusted earnings of US$1.84 per share, beating the estimated US$1.63. The volume of da Vinci procedures grew by about 18% YoY, and Intuitive expects total procedure volume to increase by 16% to 17% in 2024. Third-quarter revenue totalled US$2.04bn, slightly above analyst forecasts, with sales from its instruments and accessories unit rising 18% to US$1.26bn. Despite concerns about the impact of an intravenous (IV) saline shortage caused by Hurricane Helene, we anticipate Intuitive to continue to benefit from the demand of elective procedures going forward. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $480 to $550. Positive Outlook.
  

直觉外科 (ISRG)

• 24财年第三季营收：20.4亿美元，同比增幅17.2%，超预期3,000万美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.84美元，超预期0.2美元
  
• 24财年第四季指引：不提供指引。
  
• 短评：直觉外科第三季度利润超出华尔街预期，其用于微创手术的达芬奇（da Vinci）手术机器人需求强劲。该公司公布调整后每股收益为1.84美元，超过了预期的1.63美元。达芬奇手术的数量同比增长约18%，公司预计2024年总手术量将增长16%至17%。第三季度收入总额为20.4亿美元，略高于分析师预期，其仪器和配件部门的销售额增长18%，达到12.6亿美元。尽管人们担心飓风海伦造成的静脉注射（IV）盐水短缺的影响，但我们预计直观将继续受益于未来选择性手术的需求。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：480至550美元。积极前景。