Technical Analysis – 18 December 2023

Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA with a surge in volume, 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 166, Target 186, Stop 156

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
Long – Entry 122, Target 142, Stop 112

Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 2.32, Target 2.52, Stop 2.22

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
Long – Entry 0.68, Target 0.72, Stop 0.66

Shares closed above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 200dEMA.
MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 85, Target 95, Stop 80

Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST)

1Q24 Revenue: $57.8B, +6.2% YoY, in-line with estimates.
1Q24 GAAP EPS: $3.58, beat estimates by $0.16
Special Dividend: Costco declared a special dividend of $15 a share, representing an aggregate of $6.7bn paid to shareholders.
2Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
Comment: Costco’s sales for the quarter were boosted by the sales of food and sundries. The company also saw sales increase in the mid-teens YoY over the Black Friday Weekend, showcasing the strength of the business as well as the resilience of consumer spending amid a challenging macroeconomic environment. The company also sees deflation in “big and bulky items” due to lower freight costs. The company also did not mention a much-anticipated membership fee increase, as it does not feel the pressure to raise its membership fees just yet. The company also actively added more paid household members and opened more stores than YoY. With rate cuts on track in 2024, consumer confidence will also increase going into 2024. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $600 to $700. Positive Outlook.

好市多 (COST)

24财年第一季营收：578亿美元, 同比增幅6.2%，符合预期
24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.58美元，超预期0.16美元
特别股息：好市多宣布派发每股15美元的特别股息，总计向股东支付67亿美元。
24财年第二季指引：不提供指引。
短评：好市多本季度的销售额受到食品和杂货销售的提振。该公司在黑色星期五周末期间的销售额同比增长了15%左右，显示了业务的实力以及在充满挑战的宏观经济环境下消费者支出的弹性。该公司还预计，由于货运成本降低，“大件和笨重物品”将出现通缩。该公司也没有提及人们期待已久的会费上调问题，因为目前还没有感受到提高会费的压力。该公司还积极增加了更多的付费家庭成员，并开设了比去年同期更多的门店。随着2024年的降息，消费者信心也将在2024年有所增强。第一季度建议交易区间：600美至700美元。积极前景。

Lennar Corp. (LEN)

4Q23 Revenue: $10.97B, +7.9% YoY, beat estimates by $680M
4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $5.17, beat estimates by $0.57
1Q24 Guidance: New orders are between 17,500 and 18,000; Deliveries are between 16,500 and 17,000; Average sales price is about $420,000; Gross Margin is between 21.0% and 21.25%; SG&A as a percentage of Home Sales is between 8.0% and 8.2%; Financial services operating earnings is $85mn to $90mn.
Comment: The company delivered a solid set of results, with deliveries and new orders also beating expectations. The company also reported a gross margin on home sales of 24.2%, lower than market expectations, reflecting the pressure from higher interest rates. With rate cuts on track going into 2024, lower mortgage rates and improving consumer sentiment are bound to drive more sales for Lennar. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was at 6.95% as of December 14th, the lowest since August, dropping for a seventh consecutive week. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $140 to $170. Positive Outlook.

莱纳建筑 (LEN)

23财年第四季营收：109.7亿美元, 同比增幅7.9%，超预期6.8亿美元
23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：5.17美元，超预期0.57美元
24财年第一季指引：新订单在17,500至18,000之间；交付量在16500至17000辆之间;平均售价约为42万美元；毛利率在21.0%至21.25%之间；销售费用占房屋销售的百分比在8.0%至8.2%之间；金融服务营业利润为8,500万至9,000万美元。
短评：该公司发布了一系列稳定的业绩，交付量和新订单也超出了预期。该公司还公布，房屋销售毛利率为24.2%，低于市场预期，反映出利率上升的压力。随着2024年的降息，更低的抵押贷款利率和不断改善的消费者情绪必然会推动莱纳的销售。截至12月14日，30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率为6.95%，为去年8月以来的最低水平，连续第七周下降。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：140美至170美元。积极前景。