KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 18 April 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Nike, Inc. (NKE US) A graph with different colored lines Description automatically generated

  • Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 94.5, Target 99.5, Stop 92.0

McDonalds Corp. (MCD US)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with constructive volume.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is turning constructive.
  • Long – Entry 269, Target 283, Stop 262

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Centurion Corp. Ltd. (CENT SP)

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  • Shares closed at a high since August 2023 with constructive volume.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.445, Target 0.475, Stop 0.430

Marco Polo Marine Ltd. (MPM SP)

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  • Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 0.070, Target 0.076, Stop 0.067

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DongFang Electric Corp. Ltd. (1072 HK)

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  • Shares closed at a high since July 2023 with a surge in volume. The 50dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 10.40, Target 11.40, Stop 9.90
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China Resources Power Holdings Co. (836 HK)

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  • Shares closed at a 52-week high.
  • MACD is positive, while RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 19.40, Target 21.00, Stop 18.60

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Bank of America Corp. (BAC)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $25.82B, -1.8% YoY, beat estimates by $430M
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.83, beat estimates by $0.06
  • 2Q24 Guidance: Expect some modest impact of lower deposits in wealth management as clients make their seasonal income tax payments, and Global Markets NII to decline mostly seasonally a little bit, approaching $14bn on an FTE basis; expect that Q2 will be the low point for NII, and expect the back half of 2024 to grow.
  • Comment: Bank of America delivered strong financial results, driven by better-than-expected interest income and robust performance in investment banking. The company surpassed consensus expectations with a net interest income of $14.19bn, indicating potential resilience in a prolonged high-interest-rate environment. However, management cautioned that net interest income could dip in the second quarter to around $14bn as higher deposit costs more than offset higher asset yields and modest loan growth. Additionally, the company reported a significant unrealized loss of $11bn on its bond portfolio, increasing to $109bn as of March 31 from $98bn at the end of 2023. Market observers anticipate further widening of these losses in April due to the upward trend in market interest rates. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $30 to $37. Negative Outlook.

美国银行(BAC)

  • 24财年第一季营收：258.2亿美元，同比跌幅1.8%，超预期4.3亿美元
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益：0.83美元，超预期0.06美元
  • 24财年第二季指引：随着客户缴纳季节性所得税，预计财富管理存款减少会产生一些温和影响，全球市场的净利息收入(NII)的下降主要是季节性的，按固定资产价值计算接近140亿美元：预计第二季度将是NII的低点，预计2024年下半年将增长。
  • 短评：受好于预期的利息收入和投资银行业务强劲表现的推动，美国银行发布了强劲的财务业绩。该公司净利息收入达到141.9亿美元，超出了市场普遍预期，表明在长期的高利率环境下具有潜在的弹性。不过，该行管理层警告称，第二季度净利息收入可能降至140亿美元左右，因为存款成本上升，远远抵消了资产收益率上升和贷款增长温和的影响。此外，该公司报告称，其债券投资组合出现了110亿美元的重大未实现亏损，从2023年底的980亿美元增至截至3月31日的1,090亿美元。市场观察人士预计，由于市场利率的上升趋势，这些损失将在4月份进一步扩大。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：30美至37美元。负面前景。

UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $99.79B, +8.6% YoY, beat estimates by $490M
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $6.91, beat estimates by $0.29
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect revenues to be within $400B – $403B; Expects EPS to be between $27.5 to $28.0 per share.
  • Comment: UnitedHealth Group reported favorable results driven by a decrease in medical costs following elevated rates experienced late last year. Despite anticipating up to $1.6 billion in costs this year due to the cyberattack on its Change Healthcare unit, the company maintained its 2024 earnings forecast, indicating a potentially lesser impact from the breach. The company has already recorded $872mn in costs related to the data breach for the quarter, primarily as one-time expenses, while affirming its adjusted profit projection for 2024 at $27.50 to $28 per share. Management expresses confidence in the ability of Change Healthcare to regain customers lost during the outage. The disruptions stemming from the cyberattack are projected to affect profits by $1.15 to $1.35 per share this year. Additionally, the company disclosed a charge of approximately $7bn during the quarter for the sale of its Brazil operations. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $440 to $530. Neutral Outlook.

联合健康(UNH)

  • 24财年第一季营收：999.7亿美元，同比增幅8.6%，超预期4.9亿美元
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益：6.91美元，超预期0.29美元
  • 24财年指引：预计营收在4,000亿至4,030亿美元之间；预计每股收益在27.5美元至28.0美元之间。
  • 短评：联合健康集团报告了良好的业绩，这是由于去年年底医疗费用上升后医疗费用下降所致。尽管该公司预计，由于其Change Healthcare部门受到网络攻击，今年的成本将高达16亿美元，但该公司维持了2024年的盈利预测，这表明此次攻击的影响可能较小。该公司已经记录了本季度与数据泄露相关的8.72亿美元成本，主要是一次性费用，同时确认了其调整后的2024年每股27.50美元至28美元的利润预测。管理层表示相信Change Healthcare有能力重新获得在中断期间失去的客户。网络攻击造成的中断预计将影响今年每股利润1.15美元至1.35美元。此外，该公司在本季度披露了约70亿美元的巴西业务出售费用。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：440美至530美元。中性前景。

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $21.4B, +2.3% YoY, in-line with estimates
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.71, beat estimates by $0.06
  • 1Q24 Dividend: Johnson & Johnson declares $1.24/share quarterly dividend, 4.2% increase from prior dividend of $1.19; Forward yield 3.36%; Payable June 4; for shareholders of record May 21; ex-div May 20.
  • FY24 Guidance: Operational sales growth of 5.5%-6.0% and adjusted operational EPS of $10.57-$10.72, compared to $10.60 to $10.75 previously operational sales of $88.7B-$89.1B; Estimated reported sales of $88.0B-88.4B, compared to $87.8B to $88.6B previously.
  • Comment: Johnson & Johnson delivered a mixed set of results. First-quarter sales climbed by 2.3% to $21.4 billion, reflecting significant adjusted operational growth of 7.7% when excluding their COVID-19 vaccine. This highlights the company’s success in diversifying its offerings beyond pandemic-related products. However, concerns persist regarding the company’s Talc liabilities, as numerous lawsuits allege contamination in its talc-based products. Johnson & Johnson continues its efforts to address and resolve these legal matters. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $134 to $144. Neutral Outlook.

强生(JNJ)

  • 24财年第一季营收：214.0亿美元，同比增幅2.3%，符合预期
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益：2.71美元，超预期0.06美元
  • 24年第一季度股息：强生公司宣布派发每股1.24美元的季度股息，比之前派发的1.19美元增加4.2%；远期收益率为3.36%；6月4日为付款日；5月21日为股东登记日；5月20日为除息日。
  • 24财年指引：运营销售额增长5.5%至6.0%，调整后的运营每股收益为10.57至10.72美元，而此前的运营每股销售额为10.60至10.75美元。预期报告销售额为88.0亿至88.4亿美元，此前为87.8亿至88.6亿美元。
  • 短评：强生公司的业绩喜忧参半。第一季度销售额增长2.3%，至214亿美元，反映出在不包括COVID-19疫苗的情况下，调整后的营业增长率为7.7%。这凸显了该公司在大流行相关产品以外的产品多样化方面取得的成功。然而，关于该公司的滑石粉责任的担忧仍然存在，因为许多诉讼指控其以滑石粉为基础的产品存在污染。强生公司将继续努力解决这些法律问题。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：134美至144美元。中性前景。

Morgan Stanley (MS)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $15.1B, +4.0% YoY, beat estimates by $710M
  • 1Q24 GAAP EPS: $2.02, beat estimates by $0.36
  • 1Q24 Dividend: Morgan Stanley declares $0.85/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous; Forward yield 3.91%; Payable May 15; for shareholders of record April 30; ex-div April 29.
  • FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  • Comment: Morgan Stanley reported a strong set of results, fuelled by a resurgence in investment banking and growth in wealth management. Investment banking revenue surged by 16% year over year, with fixed-income underwriting performing strongly for the second consecutive quarter, buoyed by increased bond issuance. The company’s wealth and investment management segments also experienced growth, driven by a rise in client assets. Momentum is building in investment banking, evidenced by active M&A and underwriting pipelines across corporate and financial sponsor clients. Morgan Stanley anticipates the onset of a “multi-year M&A cycle” lasting three to five years. Additionally, ongoing global conflicts are prompting companies to reevaluate their international footprint, catalyzing further deal activity as they navigate disruptions in supply chains. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $84 to $96. Positive Outlook.

摩根斯坦利(MS)

  • 24财年第一季营收：151亿美元，同比增幅4.0%，超预期7.1亿美元
  • 24财年第一季GAAP每股收益：2.02美元，超预期0.36美元
  • 24年第一季度股息：摩根士丹利宣布每股0.85美元的季度股息，与之前一致；远期收益率为3.91%；5月15日为付息日；股东登记日为4月30日；除息日为四月二十九日。
  • 24财年指引：不提供指引。
  • 短评：在投行业务复苏和财富管理业务增长的推动下，摩根士丹利公布了一系列强劲业绩。投资银行业务收入同比增长16%，固定收益承销业务连续第二个季度表现强劲，这得益于债券发行的增加。在客户资产增加的推动下，该公司的财富和投资管理业务也出现了增长。投资银行业务正在形成势头，企业和金融赞助商客户之间活跃的并购和承销渠道证明了这一点。摩根士丹利预计，一个持续3至5年的“多年并购周期”将开始。此外，持续的全球冲突促使企业重新评估其国际足迹，在应对供应链中断的同时，催化了进一步的交易活动。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：84美至96美元。积极前景。

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $12.54B, +9.7% YoY, beat estimates by $150M
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: -$0.15, beat estimates by $0.42
  • 2Q24 Guidance: Adjusted EPS between $3.75 to $4.25 FY24 Guidance: Adjusted EPS between $9.00 to $11.00.
  • Comment: United Airlines exceeded expectations with its recent performance, benefiting from robust demand for both domestic and transatlantic flights, as well as increased corporate travel spending. The company’s optimistic guidance for FY24 reflects the ongoing strength in travel demand and underscores its effective business model in capitalizing on this trend. However, in response to Boeing’s quality crisis, the airline has reduced its anticipated aircraft deliveries for the current year. Instead, it plans to incorporate leased Airbus A321neo jets into its fleet over the next few years. United Airlines now anticipates receiving only 61 new narrow-body planes in 2024, a decrease from the previously expected 101. Consequently, the company has revised its fleet plan and intends to lease 35 Airbus A321neos in 2026 and 2027. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $38 to $48. Neutral Outlook.

联合航空(UAL)

  • 24财年第一季营收：125.4亿美元，同比增幅9.7%，超预期1.5亿美元
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.15美元，超预期0.42美元
  • 24财年指引：调整后每股收益在3.75美元至4.25美元之间。24财年指引：调整后每股收益在9.00美元至11.00美元之间。
  • 短评：美国联合航空公司最近的业绩超出预期，得益于国内和跨大西洋航班的强劲需求，以及企业旅行支出的增加。公司对24财年的乐观指引反映了旅游需求的持续强劲，并强调了其利用这一趋势的有效商业模式。然而，为了应对波音的质量危机，该航空公司已经减少了本年度的预期飞机交付量。相反，它计划在未来几年内将租赁的空客A321neo飞机纳入其机队。美联航目前预计，2024年将只接收61架新的窄体飞机，低于此前预计的101架。因此，该公司修改了机队计划，计划在2026年和2027年租赁35架空客A321neo。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：38美至48美元。中性前景。

Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $1.2B, +13.2% YoY, in-line with estimates.
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.64, beat estimates by $0.01
  • 1Q24 Dividend: Interactive Brokers Group declares $0.25/share quarterly dividend, 150% increase from prior dividend of $0.10; Forward yield 0.93%; Payable June 14; for shareholders of record May 31; ex-div May 30.
  • FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  • Comment: Interactive Brokers released a mixed set of results. Despite experiencing a 6% rise in commission revenue, reaching $379mn, the firm observed varied trading volumes among different product categories. Options contract volume surged by 24%, while futures contract and stock share volumes declined by 3% and 16%, respectively. Additionally, the company encountered a $104mn decrease in comprehensive earnings, attributed to its currency diversification strategy, which was impacted by a 0.73% decrease in the U.S. dollar value of the global basket. With the Federal Reserve signaling a prolonged high-interest rate environment, the company may see challenges in customer trading volume in the near term. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $95 to $115. Neutral Outlook.

盈透证券(IBKR)

  • 24财年第一季营收：12亿美元，同比增幅13.2%，符合预期
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益：1.64美元，超预期0.01美元
  • 24财年第一季股息：盈透证券集团宣布季度股息为每股0.25美元，较先前每股0.10美元的股息增加150%；远期收益率为0.93%；付息日为6月14日；股东登记日为5月31日；除息日为5月30日。
  • 24财年指引：不提供指引。
  • 短评：盈透证券发布的业绩喜忧参半。尽管佣金收入增长了6%，达到3.79亿美元，但该公司观察到不同产品类别的交易量存在差异。期权合约交易量激增24%，而期货合约和股票交易量分别下降3%和16%。此外，由于其货币多元化策略，该公司的综合收益减少了1.04亿美元，这受到全球一篮子美元价值下降0.73%的影响。由于美国联邦储备委员会暗示将长期维持高利率环境，该公司可能会在短期内面临客户交易量的挑战。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：95美至115美元。中性前景。

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