Technical Analysis – 17 October 2024
United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings
Energy Fuels, Inc. (UUUU US) 
- Shares closed at a high since July 2024 with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
- MACD just turned positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
- Long – Entry 6.50 Target 7.10, Stop 6.20
Nexgen Energy Ltd. (NXE US)
- Shares closed at a high since May 2024 with a surge in volume. 20dEMA recently crossed the 200dEMA.
- MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
- Long – Entry 7.90 Target 8.70, Stop 7.50
Singapore Post Ltd. (SPOST SP)
- Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 50dEMA recently crossed the 200dEMA.
- MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
- Long – Entry 0.540, Target 0.580, Stop 0.520
DFI Retail Group Holdings Ltd. (DFI SP)
- Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume.
- MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
- Long – Entry 2.15 Target 2.35, Stop 2.05
Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd (1818 HK)
- Shares closed above the 20dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
- RSI is constructive, while MACD is negative.
- Long – Entry 13.3, Target 14.5, Stop 12.7
Shandong Gold Mining Co Ltd (1787 HK) 
- Shares closed above the 20dEMA. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
- RSI is constructive, while MACD is negative.
- Long – Entry 16.6, Target 18.2, Stop 15.8
ASML Holding NV (ASML)
- 3Q24 Revenue: €7.467B, +11.9% YoY, beat estimates by €300M
- 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: €5.28
- 4Q24 Guidance: Expect net sales to be between €8.8B and €9.2B, with a midpoint of €9B slightly above the €8.95B estimate. Gross magin in the range of 49% to 50%, estimate is 50.5%.
- FY24 Guidance: Expect net sales of €28B, vs estimates of €27.71B.
- FY25 Guidance: Lower net sales forecast of €30B to €35B (mid-point of €32.5B), previously the company expected about €30B to €40B, (estimate of €35.94B). Expects gross margin of 51% to 53%, previously expected 54% to 56%, vs estimate of 53.9%.
- Dividend: Declared an interim dividend of €1.52 per ordinary share.
- Comment: In the third-quarter, ASML’s net sales grew 20% QoQ to €7.467bn and net income rose 32% QoQ to €2.08bn, surpassing estimates of €7.17bn and €1.91bn respectively. However, its third quarter bookings fell 53% QoQ to €2.63bn, below estimates of €5.39bn. ASML cut its annual sales forecast due to weak demand for non-AI chips. ASML delivered weak bookings and a lowered forecast, signalling slower recovery in non-AI chip sectors, with logic and memory chipmakers delaying orders. The chip equipment maker’s forecast reflects challenges chipmakers have faced as demand normalizes post-pandemic. Additionally, US officials are considering capping export licenses for AI chips to specific countries over national security concerns. This move aims to maintain the US’s lead in AI technology amid fears that banned chips could reach China via the Middle East. The lower forecast reflects overcapacity at chip factories, which had already stocked up on ASML’s equipment during the pandemic. With improved efficiency, chipmakers like Intel, TSMC, and Samsung are holding off on new orders as they can now produce more chips without additional tools. Despite this weakness, we still anticipate continued strength in demand for AI chips in the long term. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $620 to $750. Neutral Outlook.
阿斯麦 (ASML)
- 24财年第三季营收：746.7亿欧元，同比增幅11.9%，超预期3.0亿欧元
- 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：5.28欧元
- 24财年第四季指引：预计净销售额将在88亿欧元至92亿欧元之间，中间值为90亿欧元，略高于89.5亿欧元的预期。毛利率在49%到50%之间，估计为50.5%。
- 24财年指引：预计净销售额为280亿欧元，此前预计为277.1亿欧元。
- 25财年指引：将净销售额预期下调至300亿至350亿欧元（325亿欧元的中间值），此前公司预期约为300亿至400亿欧元（估计为3594亿欧元）。预计毛利率为51%至53%，此前预计为54%至56%，而预期为53.9%。
- 股息：宣布派发每股普通股1.52欧元的中期股息。
- 短评：在第三季度，阿斯麦的净销售额环比增长20%，达到74.67亿欧元，净收入环比增长32%，达到20.8亿欧元，分别超过了71.7亿欧元和19.1亿欧元的预期。然而，其第三季度预订量环比下降53%，至26.3亿欧元，低于预期的53.9亿欧元。由于非人工智能芯片需求疲软，阿斯麦下调了年度销售预期。阿斯麦的订单疲软，预测下调，表明非人工智能芯片行业复苏放缓，逻辑和内存芯片制造商推迟了订单。这家芯片设备制造商的预测反映出，随着疫情后需求恢复正常，芯片制造商面临的挑战。此外，出于国家安全考虑，美国官员正在考虑限制对特定国家的人工智能芯片出口许可。此举旨在保持美国在人工智能技术方面的领先地位，因为人们担心被禁芯片可能通过中东进入中国。较低的预测反映出芯片工厂产能过剩，这些工厂在疫情期间已经储备了阿斯麦的设备。随着效率的提高，英特尔、台积电和三星等芯片制造商推迟了新订单，因为它们现在可以在没有额外工具的情况下生产更多芯片。尽管存在这种疲软，但我们仍预计人工智能芯片的长期需求将持续强劲。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：620至720美元。中性前景。
Morgan Stanley (MS)
- 3Q24 Revenue: $15.38B, +15.9% YoY, beat estimates by $1.09B
- 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $1.88, beat estimates by $0.30
- 4Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
- 3Q24 Dividend: Declared $0.925/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous; Forward yield 3.3%; Payable Nov. 15; for shareholders of record Oct. 31; ex-div Oct. 31.
- Comment: Morgan Stanley delivered stronger-than-expected earnings for 3Q24, with net profit surging 32% YoY, driven by increased activity in its investment banking division, particularly in fixed-income underwriting. The bank benefited from several favorable conditions, including buoyant markets that boosted its expansive wealth management business, a recovery in investment banking after a challenging 2023, and strong trading performance. Industry-wide, investment banking showed signs of recovery, following a slowdown caused by high interest rates two years ago. Additionally, rising stock markets and net inflows supported the wealth and investment management divisions, which together manage around $7.5tn in assets. Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about rising IPOs and M&A activity, particularly as interest rates continue to decline. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $112 to $132. Positive Outlook.
摩根斯坦利 (MS)
- 24财年第三季营收：153.8亿美元，同比增幅15.9%，超预期10.9亿欧元
- 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：1.88美元，超预期0.3美元
- 24财年第四季指引：预计净销售额将在88亿欧元至92亿欧元之间，中间值为90亿欧元，略高于89.5亿欧元的预期。毛利率在49%到50%之间，估计为50.5%。
- 24财年指引：不提供指引。
- 24财年第三季股息：宣布季度股息0.925美元，与此前一致；远期股息率为3.3%；11月15日付息日；10月31日为股东登记日和除息日。
- 短评：摩根士丹利公布了强于预期的第三季度收益，净利润同比飙升32%，这主要得益于其投资银行业务（尤其是固定收益承销业务）活动的增加。该银行受益于几个有利条件，包括活跃的市场推动了其广泛的财富管理业务，投资银行业务在经历了充满挑战的2023年之后复苏，以及强劲的交易业绩。在经历了两年前高利率导致的放缓之后，整个行业的投资银行业显示出复苏的迹象。此外，不断上涨的股市和净流入支撑了财富和投资管理部门，这两个部门总共管理着约7.5万亿美元的资产。展望未来，摩根士丹利对不断上升的IPO和并购活动仍持乐观态度，尤其是在利率继续下降的情况下。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：112至132美元。积极前景。