Technical Analysis – 16 October 2024
United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings
Nordstorm, Inc. (JWN US) 
- Shares closed at a 52-week high with more volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
- MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
- Long – Entry 23.50 Target 25.90, Stop 22.30
Target Corp. (TGT US)
- Shares closed at a high since August 2024. 5dEMA recently crossed the 20dEMA.
- MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
- Long – Entry 160 Target 170, Stop 155
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings Ltd. (YZJSGD SP)
- Shares closed at higher above the 20dEMA with more volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
- MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
- Long – Entry 2.52, Target 2.70, Stop 2.43
Yangzijiang Financial Holdings Ltd. (YZJFH SP)
- Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA.
- MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
- Long – Entry 0.410 Target 0.430, Stop 0.400
Power Assets Holdings Ltd (6 HK)
- Shares closed above the 50dEMA with rising volume.
- RSI is constructive and MACD turned positive.
- Long – Entry 51, Target 55, Stop 49
CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (1038 HK) 
- Shares closed above the 20dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
- RSI is constructive and MACD turned positive.
- Long – Entry 54.4, Target 58.4, Stop 52.4
Unitedhealth Group Inc (UNH)
- 3Q24 Revenue: $100.8B, +9.1% YoY, beat estimates by $1.52B
- 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $7.15, beat estimates by $0.12
- FY24 Guidance: Expect net earnings of $15.50 to $15.75 per share reflect the South America operations disposition activities and Change Healthcare cyberattack impacts. Narrowed its adjusted net earnings outlook of $27.50 to $27.75, vs $27.69 consensus, to reflect business distribution impacts of about $0.75 per shares, and $0.10 increase from the former midpoint and change in care patterns.
- FY25 Guidance: Expect earnings of about $30 per share and remain committed to its long-term 13% to 16% earnings per share growth objective.
- Comment: UnitedHealth Group delivered third-quarter results that surpassed analysts’ estimates, with revenue of US$100.8bn and earnings of $7.15 per share. While the company’s medical costs were higher than anticipated due to increased healthcare demand, particularly among Medicare patients, and lower government reimbursements, it still managed to surpass profit estimates driven by growing memberships. UnitedHealth issued a 2025 profit forecast below Wall Street expectations, predicting earnings of up to US$30 per share, lower than the anticipated US$31.18 per share. The company cited pressures from reduced government payments for Medicare and Medicaid plans as reasons for its conservative outlook. Additionally, UnitedHealth also reduced its 2024 profit forecast, partly due to a cyberattack in February, which caused significant disruptions. Looking ahead, we anticipate lower profit margins for UnitedHealth in the fourth quarter. This is primarily driven by the ongoing financial impact of the cyberattack and the increasing demand for healthcare services under government Medicare plans, despite expecting continued growth in memberships. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $530 to $600. Neutral Outlook.
联合健康 (UHN)
- 24财年第三季营收：1,008亿美元，同比增幅9.1%，超预期15.2亿美元
- 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：7.15美元，超预期0.12美元
- 24财年指引：预计净收益为每股15.50美元至15.75美元，反映了南美业务处置和Change Healthcare网络攻击的影响。将调整后的净收益预期从27.50美元下调至27.75美元，而市场普遍预期为27.69美元，以反映每股约0.75美元的业务分配影响，比之前的中点增加0.10美元，以及护理模式的变化。
- 25财年指引：预计每股收益约为30美元，并继续致力于实现13%至16%的长期每股收益增长目标。
- 短评：联合健康集团公布的第三季度业绩超出分析师预期，营收为1008亿美元，每股收益为7.15美元。虽然公司的医疗成本高于预期，原因是医疗保健需求增加，特别是在医疗保险患者中，以及政府报销减少，但由于会员人数增加，公司的利润仍然超过了预期。联合健康发布了低于华尔街预期的2025年利润预测，预计每股收益高达30美元，低于预期的每股31.18美元。该公司表示，政府削减医疗保险和医疗补助计划支出的压力是其保守预期的原因。此外，联合健康还下调了其2024年的利润预测，部分原因是2月份的网络攻击造成了严重的中断。展望未来，我们预计联合健康第四季度的利润率将会下降。这主要是由于网络攻击的持续财务影响以及政府医疗保险计划下对医疗保健服务的需求不断增加，尽管预计会员人数将继续增长。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：530至600美元。中性前景。
Citigroup Inc (C)
- 3Q24 Revenue: $20.32B, +0.9% YoY, beat estimates by $500M
- 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $1.51, beat estimates by $0.20
- 4Q24 Guidance: Expect net interest income, ex markets, to be roughly flat with Q3’s $13.4B.
- FY24 Guidance: Reaffirmed revenue at $80B to $81B vs $80.4B consensus. Expect full-year net interest income, ex-markets, to be slightly down YoY vs prior guidance of modestly lower. Expenses, excluding FDIC special assessment and civil money penalties, remain unchanged at $53.5B to $53.8B vs $54.1B consensus. Full year retail services average net credit loss rate at likely near the high end of 5.75% to 6.25% and branded cards average NCL rate is expected to be 3.5% to 4.0%.
- Stock buyback: Determine amount of share buybacks on a quarter by quarter basis.
- Comment: Citigroup posted a smaller-than-expected profit drop for Q3, driven by its strong performance in investment banking, especially in debt underwriting, with revenue in that segment up 31%. It delivered revenue of US$20.32bn above consensus. Overall, net income fell to US$3.2bn, down from US$3.5bn a year earlier, but still exceeded analyst expectations. CEO Jane Fraser highlighted positive momentum, but challenges remain, including higher credit loss allowances and ongoing regulatory scrutiny. The bank is addressing long-standing compliance issues and is still hiring to strengthen its risk management processes. Retail banking revenue fell 8% and its retail services arm handling credit card revenue declined 1%. Wealth management also saw a 9% revenue increase to US$2bn, contributing to overall growth. Despite some setbacks, such as declining bond trading revenue, Citi’s focus on improving returns in its retail services and credit card partnerships remains a priority. With Citi observing that its consumer behaviours have returned to seasonal patterns, it should be able to better navigate through the current macroeconomic environment to deliver more growth. Further interest rate cuts will impact its net interest income but will be offset by an increase in deal flow and initial public offerings. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $60 to $70. Positive Outlook.
花旗银行 (C)
- 24财年第三季营收：203.2亿美元，同比增幅0.9%，超预期5.0亿美元
- 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：1.51美元，超预期0.2美元
- 24财年第四季指引：预计除市场外的净利息收入将与第三季度的134亿美元大致持平。
- 24财年指引：重申营收为800亿至810亿美元，而市场预期为804亿美元。预计全年除市场外的净利息收入将同比略有下降，而此前的指引则略低。不包括联邦存款保险特别评估和民事罚款在内的支出维持在535亿至538亿美元不变，而预期为541亿美元。全年零售服务的平均净信贷损失率可能接近5.75%至6.25%的高端，而品牌卡的平均净亏损率预计为3.5%至4.0%。
- 股票回购：按季度确定股票回购金额。
- 短评：花旗集团公布第三季度利润降幅小于预期，受其投资银行业务（尤其是债务承销业务）强劲表现的推动，该部门收入增长了31%。该公司营收为203.2亿美元，高于市场预期。总体而言，净利润从去年同期的35亿美元降至32亿美元，但仍超出了分析师的预期。首席执行官Jane Fraser强调了积极的发展势头，但挑战依然存在，包括更高的信贷损失补贴和持续的监管审查。该行正在解决长期存在的合规问题，并仍在招聘人员以加强其风险管理流程。零售银行业务收入下降8%，处理信用卡业务的零售服务部门收入下降1%。财富管理收入也增长了9%，达到20亿美元，为整体增长做出了贡献。尽管出现了一些挫折，比如债券交易收入下降，但花旗仍将重点放在提高零售服务和信用卡合作伙伴的回报上。鉴于花旗观察到其消费者行为已回归季节性模式，它应该能够更好地驾驭当前的宏观经济环境，实现更多增长。进一步降息将影响其净利息收入，但将被交易流量和首次公开发行的增加所抵消。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：60至70美元。积极前景。
Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS)
- 3Q24 Revenue: $12.7B, +7.4% YoY, beat estimates by $940M
- 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $8.40, beat estimates by $1.48
- FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
- 3Q24 Dividend: Declared quarterly dividend of $3.00 per share, in line with previous.
- Comment: Goldman Sachs’ Q3 profit exceeded expectations, driven by a resurgence in bond sales, stock offerings, and mergers. Investment banking fees rose 20% to US$1.87bn, fuelled by strong debt underwriting and equity sales as market confidence improved. The bank also advised on the largest US deal of the year, Kellanova’s US$36bn acquisition by Mars. While total profit jumped 45% to US$2.99bn, Goldman set aside US$397mn for credit losses, largely due to its credit card portfolio. The bank is still exiting its consumer ventures, including a credit card deal with GM and possibly Apple. Despite a drop in fixed-income trading revenue, equities trading surged 18%, and its wealth management unit saw a 16% revenue increase. Looking ahead, we anticipate increased client demand for acquisition financing as interest rates continue to decline and M&A activity picks up. However, this may be partially offset by Goldman’s provision for credit losses, especially when it decides to write down its unsuccessful consumer business partnerships. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $500 to $550. Neutral Outlook.
高盛集团 (GS)
- 24财年第三季营收：127亿美元，同比增幅7.4%，超预期9.4亿美元
- 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：8.40美元，超预期1.48美元
- 24财年指引：不提供指引。
- 24财年第三季度股息：宣布季度股息每股3.00美元，与之前一致。
- 短评：受债券销售、股票发行和并购活动复苏的推动，高盛第三季度利润超出预期。由于市场信心增强，债券承销和股票销售强劲，投资银行业务费用增长20%，至18.7亿美元。该行还为今年美国最大的一笔交易——玛氏以360亿美元收购凯拉诺瓦提供咨询服务。虽然总利润增长45%，达到29.9亿美元，但高盛拨备了3.97亿美元的信贷损失，主要是由于其信用卡投资组合。该银行仍在退出其消费者业务，包括与通用汽车的信用卡交易，可能还有苹果。尽管固定收益交易收入下降，但股票交易收入飙升18%，其财富管理部门收入增长16%。展望未来，我们预计随着利率持续下降和并购活动的增加，客户对收购融资的需求将会增加。然而，这可能会被高盛的信贷损失拨备部分抵消，尤其是当它决定减记其不成功的消费者业务伙伴关系时。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：500至550美元。中性前景。
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
- 3Q24 Revenue: $22.5B, +5.4% YoY, beat estimates by $330M
- 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.42, beat estimates by $0.21
- FY24 Guidance: Revise adjusted operational sales upwards to 5.7% to 6.2%, operational sales of $89.4B to $89.8B and estimated reported sales of $88.4B to $88.8B. Revise adjusted operational EPS downwards to $9.86 to $9.96 and adjusted EPS to be between $9.88 to $9.98.
- FY25 Guidance: Expect Stelara sales to fall to about $7B, from increased competition and pharmaceutical sales above its $57B target, vs $56.77B consensus.
- Comment: Johnson & Johnson delivered quarterly earnings per share of US$2.42, beating the US$2.21 estimate, with overall sales reaching US$22.5 bn. The company raised its 2024 profit and sales forecasts after reporting strong Q3 results, driven by a nearly 19% rise in oncology drug sales. Its multiple myeloma drug, Darzalex, generated over US$3bn, surpassing expectations. Despite setbacks from Hurricane Helene and IV fluid shortages, J&J increased its full-year sales outlook to US$89.4bn to US$89.8bn. However, its profit forecast for 2024 was slightly lowered to US$9.86 to US$9.96 per share due to acquisition charges. J&J’s psoriasis drug Stelara saw a 6.6% sales decline, but still beat forecasts. The company remains confident in achieving above US$57bn in pharmaceutical sales by 2025, despite future competition for Stelara. J&J’s cancer cell therapy Carvykti also exceeded sales expectations. The medical devices unit grew 5.8%, but underperformed in Asia, particularly in China and Japan. Looking ahead, we anticipate J&J’s cancer drug sales to continue to provide positive upside for its revenue growth. However, this may be partially offset by the decline in Stelara sales and headwinds faced by its Medtech units in China. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $150 to $180. Positive Outlook.
强生 (JNJ)
- 24财年第三季营收：225亿美元，同比增幅5.4%，超预期3.3亿美元
- 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.42美元，超预期0.21美元
- 24财年指引：将调整后的营业销售额上调至5.7%至6.2%，营业销售额894亿美元至898亿美元，预计报告销售额884亿美元至888亿美元。将调整后的每股盈利下调至9.86美元至9.96美元，调整后的每股盈利在9.88美元至9.98美元之间。
- 25财年指引：预计Stelara的销售额将降至70亿美元左右，原因是竞争加剧和药品销售额高于其570亿美元的目标，而市场预期为567.7亿美元。
- 短评：强生公司公布的季度每股收益为2.42美元，超过预期的2.21美元，总销售额达到225亿美元。在公布了强劲的第三季度业绩后，该公司上调了2024年的利润和销售预测，这得益于肿瘤药物销售额增长了近19%。其多发性骨髓瘤药物Darzalex的销售额超过30亿美元，超出预期。尽管受到飓风“海伦”和静脉输液短缺的影响，强生公司仍将全年销售额预期上调至894亿美元至898亿美元。然而，由于收购费用的影响，其2024年的利润预测略微下调至每股9.86美元至9.96美元。强生的牛皮癣药物Stelara销量下降6.6%，但仍好于预期。尽管未来会有对Stelara的竞争，但该公司仍有信心到2025年实现超过570亿美元的药品销售额。强生公司的癌症细胞疗法Carvykti也超出了销售预期。医疗设备部门增长了5.8%，但在亚洲表现不佳，尤其是在中国和日本。展望未来，我们预计强生的抗癌药物销售将继续为其收入增长提供积极的上行空间。然而，这可能会部分地被Stelara销售下降和其在中国的医疗技术部门面临的逆风所抵消。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：150至180美元。积极前景。
Bank of America Corp (BAC)
- 3Q24 Revenue: $25.3B, +0.4% YoY, beat estimates by $70M
- 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $0.81, beat estimates by $0.05
- 4Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
- Comment: While Bank of America’s 3Q24 earnings declined both YoY and QoQ, the results still surpassed expectations, supported by net income growth in its Global Markets and Global Wealth and Investment Management divisions. Improved market conditions for dealmaking, driven by better client sentiment, benefited banks across the sector. Bank of America’s investment banking fees rose 18% YoY to $1.4bn, as increased client confidence led to more debt and equity issuance. Management emphasized that customer deposit balances and asset quality remain strong, positioning the company for future growth. Additionally, the bank anticipates an improvement in interest income going forward. A resurgence in mergers and acquisitions also contributed to a rise in advisory fees, and the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut could further stimulate dealmaking activity. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $39 to $48. Positive Outlook.
美国银行 (BAC)
- 24财年第三季营收：253亿美元，同比增幅0.4%，超预期7,000万美元
- 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：0.81美元，超预期0.05美元
- 24财年第四季指引：不提供指引。
- 短评：尽管美国银行24年第三季度的收益同比和环比均有所下降，但由于其全球市场和全球财富与投资管理部门的净收入增长，结果仍超出预期。在客户情绪改善的推动下，交易撮合的市场环境有所改善，令整个行业的银行受益。美国银行的投行业务费用同比增长18%，至14亿美元，因客户信心增强导致债券和股票发行增加。管理层强调，客户存款余额和资产质量仍然强劲，为公司未来的增长奠定了基础。此外，该行预计未来利息收入将有所改善。并购活动的复苏也推动了咨询费的上涨，而美联储最近的降息举措可能进一步刺激交易活动。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：39至48美元。积极前景。
Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW)
- 3Q24 Revenue: $4.85B, +5.2% YoY, beat estimates by $60M
- 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.77, beat estimates by $0.02
- 4Q24 Guidance: Expect 4Q24 earnings to track the upper $0.80s range, compared to a consensus of $0.83; expects net interest margins to expand QoQ well into the 220s basis points.
- FY24 Guidance: Expect FY24 revenue to grow by 2% – 3% YoY, exceeding the +1.88% consensus.
- Comment: Charles Schwab delivered strong results, driven by a surge in asset management fees and a record high in client assets. Total client assets rose 27% year-over-year to a record $9.92tn, while core net new assets reached $95.3bn for the quarter, bringing the YTD total to $252.1bn. Schwab’s client transactional cash sweep, which had previously been impacted by customers moving funds to seek better yields, increased by $9.2bn sequentially. This helped the company reduce expensive bank supplemental funding by $8.9bn. Schwab continues to focus on gradually shrinking its banking operations and prioritizing the repayment of higher-cost debt. Looking ahead, the company expects meaningful expansion in net interest margin (NIM), even in a lower interest-rate environment. Additionally, the start of the Federal Reserve’s rate cut cycle is expected to boost Schwab’s brokerage business, as investors may shift towards riskier assets. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $68 to $80. Positive Outlook.
嘉信理财 (SCHW)
- 24财年第三季营收：48.5亿美元，同比增幅5.2%，超预期6,000万美元
- 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.77美元，超预期0.02美元
- 24财年第四季指引：预计第4季度每股收益将达到0.80美元，而市场普遍预期为0.83美元；预计净息差将按季扩大至220个基点。
- 24财年指引：预计24财年收入同比增长2%至3%，超过1.88%的市场预期。
- 短评：嘉信理财在资产管理费用飙升和客户资产创纪录高位的推动下，取得了强劲的业绩。客户总资产同比增长27%，达到创纪录的9.92万亿美元，而本季度核心净新增资产达到953亿美元，使今年迄今的总资产达到2,521亿美元。嘉信理财的客户交易现金收入环比增加了92亿美元。此前，嘉信理财曾受到客户转移资金以寻求更高收益的影响。这帮助该公司减少了89亿美元昂贵的银行补充融资。嘉信理财继续专注于逐步缩减其银行业务，并优先偿还成本较高的债务。展望未来，该公司预计，即使在利率较低的环境下，净息差也会大幅扩大。此外，美联储降息周期的开始预计将提振嘉信理财的经纪业务，因投资者可能转向风险较高的资产。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：68至80美元。积极前景。
Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR)
- 3Q24 Revenue: $1.37B, +20.2% YoY, beat estimates by $30M
- 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.75, miss estimates by $0.07
- 4Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
- Comment: Interactive Brokers reported a significant increase in net revenues, reaching $1.37bn in 3Q24. Revenue from commissions rose by 31% during the quarter, driven by higher customer trading volumes, while total daily average revenue trades (DARTs) surged 42% and customer accounts increased 28% YoY. Despite these strong metrics, earnings came in below expectations as the company continues to face challenges from fluctuating interest rates and market volatility. Additionally, general and administrative expenses increased, partly due to a one-time $12mn charge related to the consolidation of European subsidiaries, and a $9mn rise tied to legal and regulatory matters. With the Federal Reserve beginning its rate-cutting cycle, investors are expected to shift towards riskier assets. In the longer term, Interactive Brokers may benefit from this shift and falling interest rates. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $135 to $155. Neutral Outlook.
盈透证券 (IBKR)
- 24财年第三季营收：13.7亿美元，同比增幅20.2%，超预期3,000万美元
- 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.75美元，训预期0.07美元
- 24财年第四季指引：不提供指引。
- 短评：盈透证券报告称，其净收入大幅增长，在24年第三季度达到13.7亿美元。在客户交易量增加的推动下，本季度佣金收入增长了31%，而总日均交易收入同比增长42%，客户账户同比增长28%。尽管有这些强劲的指标，但由于公司继续面临利率波动和市场波动的挑战，收益低于预期。此外，一般和行政费用增加，部分原因是与合并欧洲子公司相关的一次性费用为1,200万美元，与法律和监管事务相关的费用为900万美元。随着美联储开始降息周期，预计投资者将转向风险更高的资产。从长期来看，盈透证券可能会从这种转变和利率下降中受益。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：135至155美元。中性前景。