Technical Analysis – 15 October 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN US)

• Shares closed at a high since Aug 2024 above the 200dEMA, with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA andis about to cross the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 190 Target 220, Stop 175
  

Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT US)

• Shares closed at a high since August 2024 with more volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 8.5 Target 9.5, Stop 8.0
  

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Hour Glass Ltd. (HG SP)

• Shares closed at a high since November 2024, above the 200dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA and 20dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 1.68, Target 1.88, Stop 1.58
  

Thai Beverage PCL (THBEV SP)

• Shares closed above the 20dEMA. 50dEMA recently crossed the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 0.525 Target 0.565, Stop 0.505
  

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Bank of China Ltd (3988 HK)

• Shares closed above the 5wEMA.
  
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 3.80, Target 4.10, Stop 3.65
  

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd (1398 HK)

• Shares closed above the 5wEMA.
  
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 4.74, Target 5.14, Stop 4.54
  

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JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $42.65B, +7.0% YoY, beat estimates by $1.27B
  
• 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $4.37, beat estimates by $0.39
  
• FY24 Guidance: Raised 2024 net interest income, excluding markets, of ~$91.5B vs. $90.8B consensus and the ~$91B guidance the bank gave in July. Maintain guidance for 2024 adjusted expense now stands at ~$91.5B, market dependent, vs. the ~$92B guidance it previously issued. Card services net charge-off rate is expected to be ~3.4%, unchanged from prior guidance.
  
• Comment: JPMorgan Chase reported strong third-quarter profits, driven by gains in investment banking and rising interest income. The bank saw a 31% surge in investment banking fees, far exceeding expectations, and raised its net interest income (NII) forecast to US$92.5bn for the year. Despite a 2% decline in overall profit, earnings per share beat expectations, coming in at US$4.37 versus the predicted US$4.01. JPMorgan set aside US$3.11bn for potential credit losses as lending expanded, though consumer finances remain resilient. CEO Jamie Dimon emphasized concerns about escalating geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East. He also commented on future regulatory challenges with new capital requirements under Basel III Endgame. The increase in provision for credit losses signals potential headwinds which may impact future earnings growth. Despite these challenges, the bank’s diversified business and strong performance in commercial and investment banking helped it outperform the broader market and is expected to continue to deliver strong results in the current quarter. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $210 to $235. Positive Outlook.
  

摩根大通 (JPM)

• 24财年第三季营收：426.5亿美元，同比增幅7.0%，超预期12.7亿美元
  
• 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：4.37美元，超预期0.39美元
  
• 24财年指引：将2024年净利息收入（不包括市场）上调至915亿美元，而市场预期为908亿美元，该行7月份给出的指引为910亿美元。根据市场情况，2024年调整后的支出指引目前维持在915亿美元左右，而此前发布的指引为920亿美元。信用卡服务净冲销率预计约为3.4%，与之前的指引持平。
  
• 短评：摩根大通公布了强劲的第三季度利润，受投行业务增长和利息收入上升的推动。该银行的投资银行费用激增31%，远远超出预期，并将其全年净利息收入（NII）预测提高至925亿美元。尽管整体利润下降了2%，但每股收益超出预期，达到4.37美元，而预期为4.01美元。随着贷款规模扩大，摩根大通拨备了31.1亿美元的潜在信贷损失准备金，不过消费者财务状况仍保持弹性。摩根大通首席执行官杰米•戴蒙强调了对地缘政治风险不断升级的担忧，尤其是在中东地区。他还评论了巴塞尔协议III末期新资本要求带来的未来监管挑战。信贷损失拨备的增加预示着潜在的不利因素，可能会影响未来的盈利增长。尽管面临这些挑战，但该银行的多元化业务以及在商业和投资银行业务方面的强劲表现使其表现优于整体市场，预计本季度将继续取得强劲业绩。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：210至235美元。积极前景。
  

BlackRock Inc. (BLK)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $5.19B, +14.8% YoY, beat estimates by $270M
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $11.46, beat estimates by $1.14
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: Aim to achieve or exceed its long-term target of 5% organic base fee growth. Projected tax run rate is expected to stay at 25%. The Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) acquisition is expected to add approximately US$250M in management fees during the fourth quarter and positively impact the overall effective fee rate by 0.5 to 1 basis point. Excluding the effects of GIP, Preqin, and related transaction costs, BlackRock expects headcount to remain stable in 2024 and anticipates a low to mid-single-digit increase in core G&A expenses, expected to align with planned technology investments and seasonal marketing spend. Following the GIP acquisition, which brought 400 new employees, full-year core G&A expense growth is projected to be at the high end of the low to mid-single-digit range previously communicated.
  
• Stock buyback: Repurchased US$375M worth of common shares in the third quarter. Anticipates repurchasing at least US$375M of shares in the fourth quarter, consistent with previous guidance.
  
• Comment: BlackRock’s assets under management (AUM) hit a record high of US$11.48tn in the third quarter, up from US$9.10tn a year ago, driven by a US stock market rally and long-term net inflows. The asset manager registered a quarterly record of US$221.18bn in net inflows, with US$160bn in long-term inflows, largely through ETFs and fixed-income products. BlackRock’s expansion into private markets and infrastructure investments continues to grow, bolstered by its recent US$12.5bn acquisition of Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) and an expected US$3.2bn deal for Preqin. The firm saw a 5% increase in organic base fee growth and continued expansion in private markets, fuelled by its acquisition of GIP. BlackRock expects GIP to add US$250mn in management fees in Q4, positively impacting its overall fee rate by 0.5 to 1 basis point. Net income rose to US$1.63bn, up from US$1.60bn last year. CEO Larry Fink emphasized BlackRock’s strategy of integrating public and private markets, anticipating further growth as interest rates normalize. Additionally, Blackrock’s ongoing capital management strategy prioritizes scaling growth initiatives and returning excess cash to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. The company’s results continue to be supported by its strong ETF franchise and favourable market conditions. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $960 to $1000. Positive Outlook.
  

贝莱德 (BLK)

• 24财年第三季营收：51.9亿美元，同比增幅14.8%，超预期2.7亿美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：11.46美元，超预期1.14美元
  
• 24财年第四季指引：目标是实现或超过5%的有机基本费用增长的长期目标。预计税率将维持在25%。收购全球基础设施合作伙伴（GIP）预计将在第四季度增加约2.5亿美元的管理费，并对整体有效费率产生0.5至1个基点的积极影响。排除GIP、Preqin和相关交易成本的影响，贝莱德预计员工人数将在2024年保持稳定，核心G&A费用将出现低至中等个位数的增长，预计将与计划中的技术投资和季节性营销支出保持一致。收购GIP带来了400名新员工，预计全年核心G&A费用增长将处于此前公布的个位数区间的中低区间的高端。
  
• 股票回购：第三季度回购了价值3.75亿美元的普通股。预计在第四季度回购至少3.75亿美元的股票，与之前的指引一致。
  
• 短评：受美国股市反弹和长期资金净流入的推动，贝莱德管理的资产规模（AUM）在第三季度达到创纪录的11.48万亿美元，高于一年前的9.10万亿美元。这家资产管理公司的季度净流入达到创纪录的2,211.8亿美元，其中长期流入1,600亿美元，主要通过etf和固定收益产品流入。最近，贝莱德以125亿美元收购了全球基础设施合作伙伴公司（Global infrastructure Partners，简称GIP），并预计将以32亿美元收购Preqin，这对贝莱德向私人市场和基础设施投资的扩张提供了支持。在收购GIP的推动下，该公司的有机基本费用增长了5%，并在私人市场上继续扩张。贝莱德预计，第四季度GIP将增加2.5亿美元的管理费，对其整体费率产生0.5至1个基点的积极影响。净利润从去年的16亿美元增至16.3亿美元。首席执行官Larry Fink强调了贝莱德整合公开市场和私募市场的战略，预计随着利率正常化，贝莱德将进一步增长。此外，贝莱德目前的资本管理战略优先考虑扩大增长计划，并通过派息和股票回购向股东返还多余现金。该公司的业绩继续受到其强大的ETF特许经营权和有利的市场条件的支持。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：960至1000美元。积极前景。
  

Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $20.36B, -2.4% YoY, miss estimates by $100M
  
• 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $1.42, beat estimates by $0.13
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect 4Q24 Net Interest Income to be roughly in-line with 3Q24. FY24 Guidance: Expect FY24 Net Interest Income to be down ~9% from 2023 level of $52.4bn, compared to its prior guidance of down 8% ~ 9%; Expects FY24 non-interest expense to be ~$54.0bn unchanged from prior guidance.
  
• 3Q24 Share buybacks: The bank repurchased 62mn shares, ($3.5bn) of common stock over the quarter.
  
• Comment: Wells Fargo exceeded earnings expectations for 3Q24, despite a slight shortfall in revenue driven by a temporary decline in net interest income. The company reported $11.69bn in net interest income, reflecting an 11% YoY decrease and just under market estimates of $11.9bn. This was primarily due to higher funding costs as customers shifted to higher-yielding deposit products. However, strong performance in fee-based revenue, which grew 16% over the first nine months of 2024, helped offset the impact. Additionally, the company recognized a $447mn loss on debt securities as part of a strategic repositioning of its investment portfolio, a move expected to drive longer-term benefits. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $57 to $68. Positive Outlook.
  

富国银行 (WFC)

• 24财年第三季营收：203.6亿美元，同比跌幅2.4%，逊预期1亿美元
  
• 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：1.42美元，超预期0.13美元
  
• 24财年第四季指引：预计第四季度净利息收入与第三季度大致一致。
  
• 24财年指引：预计24财年净利息收入将比2023年的524亿美元水平下降约9%，而此前的指引为下降8%至9%；预计24财年非利息支出约为540亿美元，与之前的指引持平。
  
• 24财年第三季度股票回购：该银行在本季度回购了6,200万股普通股（合35亿美元）。
  
• 短评：尽管由于净利息收入暂时下降，导致收入略有下降，但富国银行。该公司报告净利息收入为116.9亿美元，同比下降11%，略低于市场预期的119亿美元。这主要是由于客户转向收益更高的存款产品，导致融资成本上升。然而，基于费用的收入的强劲表现（在2024年前9个月增长了16%）帮助抵消了这一影响。此外，作为其投资组合战略重新定位的一部分，该公司确认了4.47亿美元的债务证券亏损，预计此举将带来更长期的利益。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：57至68美元。积极前景。