Technical Analysis – 10 December 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Albemarle Corp (ALB US)

• Shares closed above the 200dEMA with rising volume.
  
• RSI is constructive while MACD is about to turn positive.
  
• Long – Entry 108 Target 118, Stop 103
  

Southern Copper Corp (SCCO US)

• Shares closed at a 1-month high above the 50dEMA with an increase in volume.
  
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  
• Long – Entry 105 Target 115 Stop 100
  

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Yanlord Land Group Ltd (YLLG SP)

• Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
  
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  
• Long – Entry 0.710, Target 0.760, Stop 0.685
  

Keppel Ltd (KEP SP)

• Shares closed above the 5dEMA.
  
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 6.84 Target 7.20, Stop 6.66
  

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Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd (388 HK)

• Shares closed above the 20dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA crossed both the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
  
• Both RSI and MACD is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 303, Target 331, Stop 289
  

Meituan (3690 HK)

• Shares closed above the 20dEMA. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  
• RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
  
• Long – Entry 166, Target 182, Stop 158
  

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C3.ai Inc (AI)

• 2Q25 Revenue: $94.3M, +28.8% YoY, beat estimates by $3.28M
  
• 2Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: -$0.06, beat estimates by $0.10
  
• 3Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue of $95.5 million to $100.5 million.
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expect revenue of $378 million to $398 million, ahead of the $370 million to $395 million previously forecast by the company.
  
• Comment: C3.ai Inc delivered strong fiscal 2Q25 earnings, with a narrower adjusted net loss of US$0.06 per share, beating the US$0.16 loss forecast and a 29% YoY revenue growth to US$94.3mn, surpassing expectations. Subscription revenue rose 22% YoY to US$81.2mn, constituting 86% of total revenue. The company closed 58 customer engagements and expanded deals with major firms like ExxonMobil, Microsoft, and the US Department of Defense. During the quarter, C3.ai also formed a new strategic alliance with Microsoft, integrating C3 AI solutions into Azure’s global sales and enterprise licensing systems, further streamlining adoption. Its CEO emphasized the partnership as a significant growth inflection point for enterprise AI. C3.ai revised its fiscal Q3 revenue forecast to US$95.5mn to US$100.5mn and full-year guidance to US$378mn to US$398mn, both ahead of prior projections. The strong earnings forecast alongside improved customer deals, will continue to fuel investor optimism for future growth. 3Q25 recommended trading range: $40 to $55. Positive Outlook.
  

C3.ai Inc (AI)

• 25财年第二季营收：9,430万美元，同比增幅28.8%，超预期328万美元
  
• 25财年第二季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.06美元，逊预期0.10美元。
  
• 25财年第三季指引：预计营收为9,550万至1.005亿美元。
  
• 25财年指引：预计营收为3.78亿至3.98亿美元，高于该公司此前预测的3.7亿至3.95亿美元。
  
• 短评：C3.ai公司公布了强劲的第二季度收益，调整后净亏损为每股0.06美元，超过了亏损0.16美元的预期，收入同比增长29%，达到9430万美元，超出预期。订阅收入同比增长22%至8120万美元，占总收入的86%。该公司完成了58个客户合约，并扩大了与埃克森美孚、微软和美国国防部等大公司的交易。在本季度，C3.ai还与微软建立了新的战略联盟，将C3.ai解决方案整合到Azure的全球销售和企业许可系统中，进一步简化采用。该公司首席执行官强调，这一合作关系是企业人工智能的一个重要增长拐点。C3.ai将第三财季营收预期上调至9,550万美元至1.05亿美元，将全年营收预期上调至3.78亿美元至3.98亿美元，均高于此前的预期。强劲的盈利预测，加上客户交易的改善，将继续推动投资者对未来增长的乐观情绪。25财年第三季度建议交易区间：40至55美元。积极前景。
  

Oracle Corp (ORCL)

• 2Q25 Revenue: $14.1B, +9.0% YoY, miss estimates by $20M
  
• 2Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.47, miss estimates by $0.01
  
• 3Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue to increase about 8% and profit, excluding some items, will be $1.47 to $1.51 a share. Cloud revenue will rise by about 24%.
  
• Divided: Declared $0.40/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous, payable 23 Jan; for shareholders of record 9 Jan.
  
• Comment: In the second quarter, Oracle Corp. reported revenue of US$14.1bn, up 9% YoY, with cloud infrastructure revenue growing 52% to US$2.4bn, in line with analyst expectations. However, total cloud sales of US$5.9bn and adjusted earnings per share of US$1.47 narrowly missed estimates. The company’s cloud business has gained momentum from AI-driven demand and key clients like Uber and TikTok. Its chairman highlighted Oracle’s competitive edge in handling AI workloads, citing a new partnership with Meta to support AI development. Despite high expectations, remaining performance obligations dropped slightly to US$97bn, and Oracle’s Q3 guidance of 8% revenue growth and 24% cloud growth fell short of forecasts. Capital expenditures rose to US$3.97bn in the quarter, exceeding estimates, with plans to double data centre investments this fiscal year. Despite remaining confident in Oracle’s AI-driven growth trajectory, the potential risks of a US ban on TikTok, a key client of Oracle, poses a large threat to its future revenue growth momentum. 3Q25 recommended trading range: $170 to $190. Neutral Outlook.
  

甲骨文 (ORCL)

• 25财年第二季营收：141亿美元，同比增幅9.0%，逊预期2,000万美元
  
• 25财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.47美元，逊预期0.01美元。
  
• 25财年第三季指引：预计营收将增长8%左右，剔除部分项目后的每股利润为1.47美元至1.51美元。云计算收入将增长约24%。
  
• 股息：宣布季度股息0.40美元/股，与之前一致，1月23日为付息日；1月9日为股东登记日。
  
• 短评：甲骨文公司第二季度收入为141亿美元，同比增长9%，其中云基础设施收入增长52%，至24亿美元，符合分析师预期。然而，云总销售额为59亿美元，调整后每股收益为1.47美元，略低于预期。该公司的云业务从人工智能驱动的需求以及优步和TikTok等关键客户那里获得了发展势头。甲骨文董事长强调了甲骨文在处理人工智能工作负载方面的竞争优势，并提到了与Meta的新合作伙伴关系，以支持人工智能的开发。尽管预期很高，但剩余的业绩义务略有下降至970亿美元，甲骨文第三季度收入增长8%和云计算增长24%的指引低于预期。本季度资本支出增至39.7亿美元，超出预期，并计划在本财年将数据中心投资增加一倍。尽管对甲骨文人工智能驱动的增长轨迹仍然充满信心，但美国对甲骨文重要客户TikTok的禁令的潜在风险，对其未来的收入增长势头构成了巨大威胁。25财年第三季度建议交易区间：170至190美元。中性前景。
  

MongoDB Inc (MDB)

• 3Q25 Revenue: $529.38M, +22.3% YoY, beat estimates by $33.66M
  
• 3Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.16, beat estimates by $0.47
  
• FY25 Guidance: Raised its adjusted profit per share forecast to $3.01 to $3.03, compared with the previous estimates of $2.33 to $2.47. Expect revenue to be between $1.97 billion and $1.98 billion, up from the previous projection of $1.92 billion to $1.93 billion.
  
• Comment: In the third quarter, MongoDB reported revenue of US$529.4mn, a 22% increase YoY, surpassing estimates of US$502mn. Adjusted earnings per share reached US$1.16, far exceeding expectations of US$0.69. The company benefits from a pay-as-you-use pricing model, which has driven increased usage for AI-related workloads. MongoDB raised its annual revenue and profit forecasts for the second time this year, citing strong growth in its cloud database service, Atlas. The company now expects fiscal year revenue of US$1.97bn to US$1.98bn, up from $1.92bn to $1.93bn, and adjusted earnings per share of US$3.01 to US$3.03, up from US$2.33 to US$2.47. Additionally, CFO Michael Gordon will step down at the fiscal year’s end, with SVP Serge Tanjga stepping in as interim CFO from 1 February. Looking forward, the increasing integration of AI across industries is poised to drive further demand for MongoDB’s scalable, cloud-based database solutions, positioning the company for sustained growth in the evolving AI-driven market. 4Q25 recommended trading range: $345 to $400. Positive Outlook.
  

MongoDB (MDB)

• 25财年第三季营收：5.2938亿美元，同比增幅22.3%，超预期3,366万美元
  
• 25财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.16美元，超预期0.47美元。
  
• 25财年指引：调高调整后每股获利预估至3.01 – 3.03美元，先前预估为2.33 – 2.47美元。预计收入将在19.7亿至19.8亿美元之间，高于此前预测的19.2亿至19.3亿美元。
  
• 短评：在第三季度，MongoDB报告收入为5.294亿美元，同比增长22%，超过了5.02亿美元的预期。调整后每股收益为1.16美元，远超预期的0.69美元。该公司受益于按使用付费的定价模式，该模式推动了人工智能相关工作负载的使用量增加。MongoDB今年第二次上调了年度收入和利润预期，理由是其云数据库服务Atlas的强劲增长。该公司目前预计本财年收入为19.7亿至19.8亿美元，高于19.2亿至19.3亿美元，调整后每股收益为3.01美元至3.03美元，高于2.33美元至2.47美元。此外，首席财务官迈克尔•戈登（Michael Gordon）将在本财年结束时卸任，高级副总裁谢尔盖•坦贾（Serge Tanjga）将从2月1日起担任临时首席财务官。展望未来，人工智能在各行各业的日益融合，将推动对MongoDB可扩展、基于云的数据库解决方案的进一步需求，使该公司在不断发展的人工智能驱动市场中实现持续增长。25财年第四季度建议交易区间：345至400美元。积极前景。
  

Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $3.33B, +10.3% YoY, beat estimates by $160M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $4.63, beat estimates by $0.29
  
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expect deliveries to be 1.90K-2.10K, also in line with the $953.1M estimate. Expect adjusted home sales gross margin of 26.25%, vs consensus of 27.3%.
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expect to deliver 11,200 to 11,600 homes at an average price of $945,000 to $965,000, compared to analysts’ expectations of 11,414 on average.
  
• Comment: Toll Brothers Inc. surpassed expectations for quarterly home orders, reporting 2,658 purchase contracts in the fourth quarter, a 30% YoY increase, and above analysts’ forecast of 2,456. The company generated revenue of US$3.33bn and adjusted earnings of US$4.63 per share, exceeding analyst estimates. However, its projected adjusted home sales gross margin of 26.3% for the fiscal first quarter fell short of the anticipated 27.3%. The company’s backlog value declined to US$6.47bn, down 7% YoY, with homes in backlog decreasing 9% to 5,996 units. Strong demand was driven by affluent buyers who are less sensitive to higher borrowing costs. For those relying on financing, Toll offered discounted mortgage rates and introduced more affordable housing options to expand its market. Additionally, the company continues building homes “on spec” to quickly meet market demand. Its CEO expressed optimism for the spring selling season, with Toll Brothers projecting 11,200 to 11,600 home deliveries in FY25, aligning with analysts’ expectations. Despite potential uncertainty from the upcoming interest rate decision, Toll Brothers is well-positioned to perform strongly, supported by its focus on affluent buyers who are less affected by rising borrowing costs and its strategic efforts to address broader market demands. Additionally, the company could see further sales improvements if the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in December. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $150 to $170. Neutral Outlook.
  

托尔兄弟 (TOL)

• 24财年第四季营收：33.3亿美元，同比增幅10.3%，超预期160万美元
  
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：4.63美元，超预期0.29美元。
  
• 25财年第一季指引：预计交付量为1.90至2.10万套房屋，也符合9.531亿美元的估计。预计调整后的房屋销售毛利率为26.25%，而市场预期为27.3%。
  
• 25财年指引：预计将交付11,200至11,600套房屋，平均价格为94.5万至96.5万美元，而分析师的平均预期为11,414套。
  
• 短评：托尔兄弟季度房屋订单超出预期，报告第四季度购房合同2,658份，同比增长30%，高于分析师预期的2,456份。该公司实现收入33.3亿美元，调整后每股收益4.63美元，超出分析师预期。不过，该公司预计第一财季调整后的房屋销售毛利率为26.3%，低于预期的27.3%。该公司的积压价值下降至64.7亿美元，同比下降7%，积压房屋减少9%至5,996套。强劲的需求是由富裕的买家推动的，他们对更高的借贷成本不那么敏感。对于那些依赖融资的人，托尔提供了优惠的抵押贷款利率，并推出了更多负担得起的住房选择，以扩大市场。此外，该公司继续“按规格”建造房屋，以迅速满足市场需求。该公司首席执行官对春季销售季表示乐观，托尔兄弟预计25财年房屋交付量为1.12万至1.16万套，与分析师预期一致。尽管即将到来的利率决定可能带来不确定性，但托尔兄弟有能力表现强劲，这得益于其专注于受借贷成本上升影响较小的富裕买家，以及其满足更广泛市场需求的战略努力。此外，如果美联储在12月降息，该公司可能会看到销售进一步改善。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：150至170美元。中性前景。