Technical Analysis – 1 October 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

V.F. Corp. (VFC US)

• Shares closed at a high since Dec 2023.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 19.80 Target 21.80, Stop 18.80

Hanesbrands Inc. (HBI US)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high.
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 7.25 Target 8.05, Stop 6.85

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Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)

• Shares closed at a high since Jul 2024 with higher volume. 20dEMA recently crossed the 50dEMA and is about to cross the 200dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 6.74, Target 7.10, Stop 6.56

COSCO SHIPPING International (Singapore) Co., Ltd. (COS SP)

• Shares closed at a high since Aug 2024 with more volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 0.138 Target 0.150, Stop 0.132

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Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)

• Shares closed at a 3-month high above the 200dEMA with an increase in volume.
• MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 50, Target 54, Stop 48

Baidu Inc (9888 HK)

• Shares closed at a 4-month high above the 200dEMA with rising volume. The 50dEMA rose above the 20dEMA.
• MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 100, Target 110, Stop 95

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Carnival Corp (CCL)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $7.9B, +15.3% YoY, beat estimates by $80M
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.27, beat estimates by $0.12
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect net yields (in constant currency) up approximately 5% compared to particularly strong 2023 levels. Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD up approximately 8% compared to 4Q23 due primarily to higher dry-dock days and higher investment in advertising. Adjusted EBTIDA of approximately $1.14B, up 20% compared to 4Q23.
• FY24 Guidance: Raise FY24 adjusted EBITDA guidance to approximately $6B, up over 40% compared to FY23 and better than June guidance by nearly $200M.The cumulative advanced booked position for FY25 is above the previous FY24 record with prices (in constant currency) ahead of the prior year. Adjusted return on invested capital of approximately 10.5%, an improvement of approximately 5 percentage points compared to FY23 and half a point better than June guidance.
• Comment: Carnival Corp delivered third quarter revenue of US7.9bn and earnings of US$1.27 per share which surpassed estimated, with gross margins improving by 19% YoY. The company raised its annual profit forecast for the third time, driven by strong demand for cruise vacations during the summer and reduced operational costs. Its CEO noted that demand generation efforts have fuelled growth, particularly among younger travellers. Enhanced itineraries, reduced costs, and improved fuel efficiency contributed to higher margins. While Carnival raised its 2024 profit forecast, its Q4 earnings projection of US$0.05 per share fell short of estimates. In the current quarter, the company expects increased maintenance days and higher advertising spending to push adjusted cruise costs up by approximately 8%. Despite this near-term challenge, the company’s long-term prospects remain positive. The continued strength of demand for cruise vacations, coupled with an increase in onboard spending, positions Carnival for future growth. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $17 to $21. Positive Outlook.

嘉年华游轮 (CCL)

• 24财年第三季营收：79亿美元，同比增幅15.3%，超预期8,000万美元
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.27美元，超预期0.12美元
• 24财年第四季指引：与2023年的强劲水平相比，预计净收益率（以固定汇率计算）将增长约5%。与去年第四季度相比，调整后的邮轮成本（不包括每个可用低位泊位日的燃油）增长了约8%，主要原因是干船坞天数增加和广告投资增加。调整后的EBITDA约为11.4亿美元，与23年第四季度相比增长20%。
• 24财年指引：将24财年调整后的EBITDA指引上调至约60亿美元，与23财年相比增长40%以上，比6月份的指引高出近2亿美元。25财年的累计预提头寸高于之前的24财年记录，价格（按固定汇率计算）高于前一年。调整后的投资资本回报率约为10.5%，与23财年相比提高了约5个百分点，比6月份的指引值高出0.5个百分点。
• 25财年第一季指引：预计第一季度营收将在168.5亿美元至174.5亿美元之间，中间值为171.5亿美元，而市场预期为169.4亿美元。2025财年指引：预计营收增长3%至6%，市场普遍预期为5.92%；预计GAAP每股收益在12.55美元至12.91美元之间，中间值为12.73美元，而市场预期为12.87美元；预计GAAP营业利润率在15.6%至15.8%之间。
• 短评：嘉年华公司第三季度收入79亿美元，每股收益1.27美元，超出预期，毛利率同比增长19%。受夏季邮轮度假需求强劲和运营成本降低的推动，该公司第三次上调了年度利润预期。该公司首席执行官指出，创造需求的努力推动了增长，尤其是在年轻游客中。增加行程、降低成本和提高燃油效率有助于提高利润率。虽然嘉年华上调了2024年的盈利预期，但其第四季度每股0.05美元的盈利预期低于预期。本季度，该公司预计维修天数的增加和广告支出的增加将推动调整后的邮轮成本增长约8%。尽管面临短期挑战，但该公司的长期前景仍然乐观。邮轮度假需求的持续强劲，加上船上消费的增加，为嘉年华未来的增长奠定了基础。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：17至21美元。积极前景。