4Q25 Revenue: $11.1B, -12.0% YoY, beat estimates by $380M
4Q25 GAAP EPS: $0.14, beat estimates by $0.02
1Q26 Guidance: Expect first-quarter revenue to fall in the mid-single digits, slightly better than analysts’ expectations of a 7.3% drop.
Comment: Nike reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, with revenue and EPS beating estimates. The company also forecasted a smaller revenue decline for the first quarter in the mid-single digits compared to analysts’ expectations of a 7.3% decline. To mitigate the estimated US$1bn cost impact from U.S. tariffs, Nike plans to significantly reduce its reliance on Chinese manufacturing for the U.S. market, aiming to cut imports from China to the high single-digit percentage range by May 2026. While China remains a weak spot due to macroeconomic challenges and competition, Nike is seeing renewed growth in its running category, supported by product innovation in models like the Pegasus and Vomero. Marketing spending rose 15% YoY and price hikes are being implemented to help offset tariff pressures. Looking ahead, Nike is focused on optimizing its global supply chain to reduce tariff exposure and maintain profitability, while doubling down on performance-driven categories like running to drive growth. Continued investment in innovation, targeted marketing, and cost efficiencies should position the company for long-term resilience, even as near-term revenue headwinds and China weakness persist. 1Q26recommended trading range: $60 to $80. Neutral Outlook.
