13 May 2025: Futures Product Ideas
KGI Weekly Futures Update
SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures
Net Long/Short and Price Comparison
We highlight the key price levels that each participant switches their positions between net long and net short based on 2024 data.
2024 | Financial Institution (FI) | Manage Money (MM) | Physicals | Others |
Net Long | Below US$118/mt | Above US$118/mt | Below US$100/mt | NA |
Net Short | Above US$118/mt | Below US$115/mt | Above US$100/mt | NA |
Net-position WoW Change | Remarks | |
FI | +8.90 | Increase for four consecutive weeks. |
MM | -39.55 | Decline for a week. |
Physicals | +26.31 | Increase for a week. |
Others | +4.34 | Increase for a week after declining for two consecutive weeks. |
Figure 1: Net-positions by participant segment and price comparison
Source: SGX, KGI Research
Long/Short Traders Snapshot
- Managed Money. The number of MM with long positions fell to 277 after rebounding a week ago. Accordingly, the number of MM with short positions rose to 321 after declining a week ago. Seasonally, more MMs are prone to long in 1HQ4 and 2HQ2, and there are more MMs with short positions in 1HQ2 and 1HQ3.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 423 | 427 | 393 | 248 |
Low | 176 | 131 | 154 | 83 |
Figure 2: Number of position holders iron ore futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Physicals. The number of physicals with long positions retreated for two consecutive weeks to 106 after two consecutive weeks of increase. Accordingly, the number of physicals with short positions declined to 141, falling from a high since February 2025 a week ago. Seasonally, more physicals are prone to being long in 1Q, and there are more physicals with short positions in Q4.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 135 | 145 | 111 | 147 |
Low | 77 | 107 | 68 | 96 |
Figure 3: Number of position holders iron ore futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Others. The number of others with long positions declined for three consecutive weeks to 70, reaching a low since December 2024, continuing on its general downtrend. The number of others with short positions retreated for two consecutive weeks to 100 after rising consecutively for two weeks.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 131 | 131 | 134 | 152 |
Low | 68 | 83 | 103 | 101 |
Figure 4: Number of position holders iron ore futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
SGX Baltic Panamax Time Charter Average Futures
We highlight the key price levels that each participants switches their positions between net long and net short based on 2024 data.
2024 | Financial Institution (FI) | Manage Money (MM) | Physicals | Others |
Net Long | NA | Above US$9,000/t | Below US$8,500/t | NA |
Net Short | NA | Below US$9,000/t | Above US$9,500/t | NA |
Net-position WoW Change | Remarks | |
FI | -0.01 | Decline for three consecutive weeks. |
MM | +3.26 | Increase for a week after declining for five consecutive weeks, the largest increase since February 2025. |
Physicals | -2.83 | Decrease for a week after five consecutive weeks of increase, the largest decrease since February 2025. |
Others | -0.42 | Decline for five consecutive weeks, the largest decline since July 2024. |
Figure 5: Net-positions by participant segment and price comparison
Source: SGX, KGI Research
Long/Short Traders Snapshot
- Managed Money. The number of MM with long positions declined marginally to 21 a week ago. On the other hand, the number of MM with short positions rebounded marginally to 47 after declining a week ago. Seasonally, More MM are prone to long in 1H, and there are more MM with short positions in 2H.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 47 | 51 | 29 | 33 |
Low | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
Figure 6: Number of position holders freight futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Physicals. The number of physicals with long positions declined marginally for two consecutive weeks to 148. Accordingly, the number of physicals with short positions declined to 80 after two consecutive weeks of increase, and represents a low since January 2025. The number of physicals has been on a general upward trend since 2Q24, while physicals with short positions generally saw a downtrend since 2Q24.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 171 | 114 | 120 | 123 |
Low | 98 | 78 | 78 | 62 |
Figure 7: Number of position holders freight futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Others. The number of others with long positions remained stable at 22, stable at current levels since the start of 2025.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 43 | 39 | 53 | 45 |
Low | 20 | 20 | 31 | 25 |
Figure 8: Number of position holders freight futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
SGX SICOM Rubber Futures – TSR20
Net Long/Short and Price Comparison
We highlight the key price levels that each participants switches their positions between net long and net short based on 2024 data.
2024 | Financial Institution (FI) | Manage Money (MM) | Physicals | Others |
Net Long | Below US$1.90/kg | NA | NA | NA |
Net Short | Above US$1.60/kg | NA | NA | NA |
Net-position WoW Change | Remarks | |
FI | +0.38 | Increase for six consecutive weeks. |
MM | -1.47 | Decline for six consecutive weeks. |
Physicals | +1.43 | Increase for five consecutive weeks. |
Others | -0.32 | Decline for five consecutive weeks. |
Figure 9: Net-positions by participant segment and price comparison
Source: SGX, KGI Research
Long/Short Traders Snapshot
- Managed Money. The number of MM with long positions remained stable at 49 after declining for seven consecutive weeks, and represents a low in over two years. Accordingly, the number of MM with short positions rebounded marginally to 77 after declining a week ago, continuing on a general upward trend.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 114 | 56 | 89 | 80 |
Low | 63 | 21 | 25 | 27 |
Figure 10: Number of position holders rubber futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Physicals. The number of physicals with long positions increased for two consecutive weeks to 48, representing a high in over two years. Accordingly, the number of physicals with short positions rebounded to 34 after two consecutive weeks of marginal decline. Seasonally, more physicals are prone to long in early Q3, and there are more physicals with short positions in Q4.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 39 | 48 | 43 | 39 |
Low | 26 | 28 | 24 | 24 |
Figure 11: Number of position holders rubber futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Others. The number of long holders decreased to 54 after increasing marginally a week ago. On the other hand, the number of short holders declined to 37 after increasing a week ago.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 77 | 48 | 82 | 51 |
Low | 48 | 26 | 51 | 28 |
Figure 12: Number of position holders rubber futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
Participant Category | Description |
Financial Institutions | An entity, such as a broker trading desk, bank trading desk or swap dealer, that uses the futures markets to manage or hedge the risk. |
Managed Money | An entity that is engaged in organized futures trading on behalf of funds or other special investment purpose vehicles such as Pension Funds, Asset Managers, Hedge Funds, Proprietary Trading Groups, Family Offices, etc. |
Physicals | An entity that predominantly engages in the physical markets and uses the futures markets to manage or hedge risks associated with the conduct of those activities. Such activities could include the production, processing, trading, packing or handling of a physical commodity, or the provision of transportation, warehousing or distribution services. |
Others | Every other trader that is not placed into one of the other three categories. E.g., Broker Agency, Bank Agency, Inter-Dealer Brokers, etc. |
凯基证券期货周报 – 5 月 5 日
SGX TSI 铁矿石 CFR 中国（62% 铁粉）指数期货
净多头/空头和价格比较
我们根据2024年数据，突出了每个参与者在净多头和净空头之间切换仓位的关键价格水平。
2024 | 金融机构 (FI) | 管理资金 (MM) | 实物交割(Physicals) | 其他 (Others) |
净多头 | 低于 118 美元/吨 | 118 美元/吨以上 | 低于 100 美元/吨 | 无 |
净空头 | 118 美元/吨以上 | 低于 115 美元/吨 | 100 美元/吨以上 | 无 |
净仓位按周变化 | 备注 | |
金融机构 | +8.90 | 连续四周上涨。 |
管理资金 | -39.55 | 上周下跌。 |
实物交割 | +26.31 | 上周上涨 |
其他 | +4.34 | 连续两周下跌后反弹上涨。 |
图 1：按参与者细分的净持仓和价格比较
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
多头/空头交易简报
- 管理资金。持有多头头寸的管理资金数目在一周前反弹后下降至277家。相应地，持有空头头寸的管理资金数目在一周前下降后反弹上涨至321家。季节性来看，更多管理资金倾向于在第四季上半旬和第二季下半旬持有多头，而在第二季上半旬和第三季上半旬持有空头的管理资金较多。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 423 | 427 | 393 | 248 |
最低值 | 176 | 131 | 154 | 83 |
图 2：铁矿石期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
- 实物交割。持有多头头寸的实物交割交易者数量连续两周上升后连续两周下降至106家。相应地，持有空头头寸的实物交割交易者数量从一周前的2025年2月以来的最高水平减少到141家。季节性来看，更多实物交割交易者倾向于在第一季度持有多头，而在第四季度持有空头的实物交割较多。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 135 | 145 | 111 | 147 |
最低值 | 77 | 107 | 68 | 96 |
图 3：铁矿石期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
- 其他。其他类别多头持仓数量连续三周下降至70家，为2024年12月以来的最低水平，延续了总体下降趋势，而空头持仓数量也连续两周小幅上升后连续两周下降至100家。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 131 | 131 | 134 | 152 |
最低值 | 68 | 83 | 103 | 101 |
图 4：铁矿石期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
SGX 波罗的海巴拿马型船平均期租期货
我们根据2024年数据，突出了每个参与者在净多头和净空头之间切换仓位的关键价格水平。
2024 | 金融机构 (FI) | 管理资金 (MM) | 实物交割(Physicals) | 其他 (Others) |
净多头 | 无 | 9,000 美元/吨以上 | 低于 8,500 美元/吨 | 无 |
净空头 | 无 | 低于 9,000 美元/吨 | 9,500 美元/吨以上 | 无 |
净仓位按周变化 | 备注 | |
金融机构 | -0.01 | 连续三周下跌。 |
管理资金 | +3.26 | 在连续五周下降后上周反弹上涨，这是2025年2月以来的最大增幅。 |
实物交割 | -2.83 | 在连续五周上涨之后上周下跌，这是自 2025 年 2 月以来的最大跌幅。 |
其他 | -0.42 | 连续五周下跌，为 2024 年 7 月以来的最大跌幅。 |
图 5：按参与者类别划分的净仓位及价格比较
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
多头/空头交易者快照
- 管理资金。持有多头头寸的做管理资金交易者数量小幅下降至21家。另一方面，持有空头头寸的管理资金交易者数量在一周下降后小幅回升至47家，从今年一月份月以来最高水平回落。季节性来看，更多管理资金倾向于在上半年持有多头，而在下半年持有空头的管理资金较多。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 47 | 51 | 29 | 33 |
最低值 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
图 6： 运费期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
- 实物交割。 持有多头头寸的实物交割交易者量连续两周下降至148家。相应地，持有空头头寸的实物交割交易者数量连续两周上升后下降至80家，为2025年1月以来最低水平。自去年第二季度以来，实物交割交易者数量总体呈上升趋势，而持有空头头寸的实物交割交易者数量自去年第二季度以来总体呈下降趋势。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 171 | 114 | 120 | 123 |
最低值 | 98 | 78 | 78 | 62 |
图 7： 运费期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
- 其他。持有多头头寸的其他类别投资者数量维持在22家，自2025年初以来一直稳定在该水平。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 43 | 39 | 53 | 45 |
最低值 | 20 | 20 | 31 | 25 |
图 8： 运费期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
SGX SICOM 橡胶期货 – TSR20
净多头/空头及价格比较
我们根据2024年数据，突出了每个参与者在净多头和净空头之间切换仓位的关键价格水平。
2024 | 金融机构 (FI) | 管理资金 (MM) | 实物交割(Physicals) | 其他 (Others) |
净多头 | 低于 1.90 美元/公斤 | 无 | 无 | 无 |
净空头 | 1.60 美元/公斤以上 | 无 | 无 | 无 |
净仓位按周变化 | 备注 | |
金融机构 | +0.38 | 连续六周上涨。 |
管理资金 | -1.47 | 连续六周下跌。 |
实物交割 | +1.43 | 连续五周增加。 |
其他 | -0.32 | 连续五周下跌。 |
图 9：按参与者类别划分的净仓位及价格比较
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
多头/空头交易者快照
- 管理资金。持有多头头寸的管理资金交易者数量连续七周下跌后稳定在49家，为两年以来的新低。相应地，持有空头头寸的管理资金交易者数量在一周前下降后小幅回升至77家，继续保持总体上升趋势。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 114 | 56 | 89 | 80 |
最低值 | 63 | 21 | 25 | 27 |
图 10：橡胶期货持仓者数量
资料来源：新交所、凯基研究
- 实物交割。持有多头头寸的实物交割交易者数量连续两周上升至48家，为两年来新高。相应地，持有空头头寸的实物交割交易者数量在连续两周回落后上升至34家。从季节性来看，实物交割交易者在第三季度初更倾向于持有多头头寸，而在第四季度则更多持有空头头寸。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 39 | 48 | 43 | 39 |
最低值 | 26 | 28 | 24 | 24 |
图11：橡胶期货持仓者数量
资料来源：新交所、凯基研究
- 其他。 持有多头头寸的投资者数量在一周小幅上涨后回落至54家。另一方面，持有空头头寸的投资者数量在一周上升后回落至37家。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 77 | 48 | 82 | 51 |
最低值 | 48 | 26 | 51 | 28 |
图 12：持仓橡胶期货数量
资料来源：新交所、凯基研究
参与者类别 | 描述 |
金融机构 | 使用期货市场管理或对冲风险的实体，如经纪商交易台、银行交易台或互换交易商。 |
管理资金 | 代表基金或其他特殊投资目的工具（如养老基金、资产管理公司、对冲基金、自营交易集团、家族办公室等）从事有组织的期货交易的实体。 |
实物交割 | 主要从事实物市场并使用期货市场管理或对冲与这些活动相关风险的实体。这些活动可能包括生产、加工、贸易、包装或处理实物商品，或提供运输、仓储或分销服务。 |
其他 | 未归类到上述三类中的其他交易者，例如经纪代理、银行代理、交易商间经纪商等。 |
