Technical Analysis – 21 May 2025

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR US)

• Shares closed at a high since August 2024.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 89.0, Target 97.0, Stop 85.0
  

Dollar General Corp. (DG US)

• Shares closed at a high since August 2024. 5dEMA and 20dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 100, Target 114, Stop 93
  

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HongKong Land Holdings Ltd. (HKL SP)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Buy – Entry 5.10, Target 5.50, Stop 4.90
  

Singapore Exchange Ltd. (SGX SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA.
  
• MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Buy – Entry 14.0 Target 14.6, Stop 13.7
  

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CGN Power Co Ltd (1816 HK)

• Shares closed at a four-month high above the 200dEMA with rising volume. The 20dEMA crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 2.62 Target 2.82, Stop 2.52
  
  
  
  
  

  

  
  

China Resources Power Holdings Co Ltd (836 HK)

• Shares closed at a high since October above the 5dEMA with rising volume. The 50dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is constructive while RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 19.9, Target 21.5, Stop 19.1
  
  
  

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Pony AI Inc. (PONY)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $13.98M (RMB101.6M), +11.7% YoY, beat estimates by $1.58M (RMB11.49M)
  
• 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: -$0.10 (-RMB0.73), miss estimates by $0.09 (RMB0.66)
  
• FY25 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  
• Comment: Pony AI delivered mixed first quarter results with revenue of US$13.98mn (RMB 101.6mn) surpassing estimates and a net loss of US$0.10 per share, below estimates of a US$0.01 net loss per share. Its robotaxi services revenue was US$1.7mn, showing a 200.3% YoY growth, driven by the expansion of its public-facing fare-charging Robotaxi operations in Tier-1 cities in China as well as it optimizing operations for diverse user groups. Robotruck services revenues grew by 4.2% YoY to US$7.8mn, primarily driven by contributions from new clients. Licensing and applications revenues were flattish YoY at US$4.5mn, with increasing orders and delivery for autonomous domain controller sales, primarily driven by new robot-delivery clients. Its total operating expenses increased 56.3% YoY to US$58.4mn, primarily due to investments in mass production for Gen 7 and one-time expenses associated with share awards settled upon the completion of IPO. The company’s newly launched Gen 7 autonomous driving system reduced bill-of-materials costs by 70% through innovations like 80% lower computing costs and 68% cheaper LiDAR. With partnerships with Tencent, Uber, and major OEMs, Pony.ai is scaling production to 1,000 Gen 7 vehicles by year-end, featuring automotive-grade components and an industry-leading 1:20 remote-assistant ratio that cuts operational costs. The company has expanded its Chinese operations to over 2,000 sq km and secured global footholds through testing permits in Luxembourg and Seoul, plus Middle East deployments via Uber. Backed by its PonyWorld AI that generates more than 10 billion km of weekly training data and US$738.5mn in cash reserves, Pony AI is optimizing toward breakeven despite current R&D investments, positioning 2025 as its inflection point for scalable autonomous mobility solutions worldwide. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $14 to $20. Neutral Outlook.
  

小马智行 (PONY)

• 25财年第一季营收： 1,398万美元 (人民币1.016亿元)，同比增长11.7%，超出预期158万美元 (人民币1,149万元)
  
• 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股亏损： 0.10美元 (人民币0.73元)，低于预期0.09美元 (人民币0.66元)
  
• 25财年指引： 未提供指引。
  
• 短评： 小马智行第一季度业绩喜忧参半，营收1,398万美元 (人民币1.016亿元) 超出预期，但每股净亏损0.10美元，低于市场预期的每股净亏损0.01美元。其Robotaxi服务收入为170万美元，同比增长200.3%，这得益于在中国一线城市面向公众收费的Robotaxi业务扩展，以及针对不同用户群体的运营优化。Robotruck服务收入同比增长4.2%至780万美元，主要受新客户贡献的推动。授权和应用收入同比持平，为450万美元，这得益于新的机器人配送客户推动的自动驾驶域控制器销售订单和交付增加。总运营费用同比增长56.3%至5,840万美元，主要由于Gen 7量产投资以及首次公开募股完成后股权奖励相关的一次性费用。公司新推出的Gen 7自动驾驶系统通过创新将物料清单成本降低了70%，其中包括计算成本降低80%和激光雷达成本降低68%。通过与腾讯、优步和主要OEM厂商的合作，小马智行正在扩大生产，目标是到年底生产1,000辆Gen 7汽车，这些汽车采用汽车级组件和行业领先的1:20远程协助比例，可降低运营成本。公司已将中国业务扩展到2,000平方公里以上，并通过获得卢森堡和首尔的测试许可，以及通过优步在中东的部署，在全球建立了立足点。在PonyWorld AI每周生成超过100亿公里训练数据和7.385亿美元现金储备的支持下，尽管目前投入研发，小马智行仍在努力实现收支平衡，将2025年定位为全球可扩展自动驾驶解决方案的拐点。25财年第二季建议交易区间：14美元至20美元。中性前景。
  

Home Depot Inc. (HD)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $39.86B, +9.5% YoY, beat estimates by $610M
  
• 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.56, miss estimates by $0.03
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expect total sales to grow by 2.8% and comparable sales, which take out the impact of one-time factors like store openings and calendar differences, to rise about 1%. Its forecast is based on continuing a U.S. agreement to temporarily lower tariffs to 30% on imports from China and 10% for many other countries.
  
• Comment: Despite missing Wall Street’s Q1 earnings estimates, Home Depot maintained its full-year guidance, expecting 2.8% sales growth and about 1% comparable sales growth. Net income dipped to US$3.43bn, US$3.45 per share, from US$3.60bn, US$3.63 per share in the year-ago period, while U.S. comparable sales edged up 0.2%, a rebound from February’s weather-driven 3.3% decline to 1.8% growth in April. Its CFO emphasised price stability despite tariffs, leveraging diversified sourcing, with no single foreign supplier exceeding 10% of purchases by 2025 and scale to avoid hikes. The housing market slowdown has shifted demand toward smaller projects, but Home Depot is gaining traction with pro contractors through its SRS Distribution acquisition, which sells roofing, pool and landscaping supplies. Looking ahead, Home Depot remains confident in its ability to navigate macroeconomic headwinds, including elevated interest rates and tariff pressures, by leveraging its supply chain resilience and pro-customer focus. Its strategic acquisition of SRS Distribution alongside its pricing strategy will enable it to capture market share as housing trends stabilise in the future and pent-up demand for larger projects potentially accelerate sales momentum. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $350 to $390. Neutral Outlook.
  

家得宝 (HD)

• 25财年第一季营收： 398.6亿美元，同比增长9.5%，超出预期6.1亿美元
  
• 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益： 3.56美元，低于预期0.03美元
  
• 25财年指引： 预计总销售额增长2.8%，可比销售额（剔除门店开业和日历差异等一次性因素的影响）增长约1%。其预测基于美国继续暂时将从中国进口的关税降至30%，以及对许多其他国家进口的关税降至10%的协议。
  
• 短评： 尽管第一季度盈利未达华尔街预期，家得宝仍维持其全年指引，预计销售额增长2.8%，可比销售额增长约1%。净利润从去年同期的36.0亿美元、每股3.63美元降至34.3亿美元、每股3.45美元，而美国可比销售额小幅增长0.2%，从2月份受天气影响的3.3%下降反弹至4月份的1.8%增长。其首席财务官强调，尽管有关税，但价格保持稳定，这得益于多元化的采购，到2025年没有任何单一外国供应商的采购量超过10%，并且通过规模效应避免了价格上涨。住房市场放缓已将需求转向小型项目，但家得宝通过收购SRS Distribution（销售屋顶、泳池和园林绿化用品）在专业承包商中获得了吸引力。展望未来，家得宝对其应对宏观经济逆风（包括利率上升和关税压力）的能力充满信心，这得益于其供应链弹性和对专业客户的关注。对SRS Distribution的战略性收购以及其定价策略将使其能够在未来住房趋势稳定和对大型项目的压抑需求可能加速销售势头时，抓住市场份额。25财年第二季建议交易区间：350美元至390美元。中性前景。
  

Bilibili Inc. (BILI)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $965.1M (RMB7B), +24% YoY
  
• FY25 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  
• Comment: Bilibili delivered strong growth in Q1, with total revenue rising 24% YoY to RMB 7bn, driven by a 76% surge in game revenue to RMB 1.73bn and 20% growth in advertising to RMB 2bn. High-margin businesses and operating efficiencies expanded gross profit by 58% YoY, lifting the gross margin to 36.3% compared to 28.3% in 1Q24. The company achieved a positive adjusted net profit of RMB 362mn and slashed its GAAP net loss by 99% YoY to RMB 11mn. User engagement hit record highs, MAUs grew to 368 million, DAUs reached 107 million, and average daily time spent climbed to 108 minutes. The platform’s Gen Z+ user base, with an average age of 26, demonstrated growing purchasing power, fuelling demand for gaming, AI, and lifestyle content. Bilibili’s creator ecosystem thrived, with 1.5 million monetized creators, with 200% YoY increase in fan-driven income. Strategic initiatives, such as the CCTV Chinese New Year Gala collaboration and global anime releases boosted brand awareness. AI-powered ad tools and performance-based advertising grew more than 30% YoY, while SLG game Sangho and legacy titles like FGO and Azure Lane drove gaming momentum. Looking ahead, Bilibili is poised to continue to capitalize on its community growth and commercialization. With a loyal Gen Z+ user base entering peak spending years, the company will continue to deepen monetization through enhanced ad targeting, live streaming, and fan-creator ecosystems. Its gaming pipeline is also expected to sustain high-margin growth. AI innovation, from content discovery to ad efficiency, will further optimize engagement and revenue. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $17 to $23. Positive Outlook.
  

哔哩哔哩公司 (BILI)

• 25财年第一季营收：9.651亿美元（人民币70亿元），同比增长24%
  
• 25财年指引：未提供指引。
  
• 短评： 哔哩哔哩在第一季度实现了强劲增长，总营收同比增长24%至人民币70亿元，主要得益于游戏收入激增76%至人民币17.3亿元，以及广告收入增长20%至人民币20亿元。高利润业务和运营效率使毛利润同比增长58%，毛利率提升至36.3%，相比于2024年第一季度的28.3%。公司实现了人民币3.62亿元的正向调整后净利润，GAAP净亏损同比减少99%至人民币1100万元。用户参与度创下历史新高，月活跃用户（MAU）增长至3.68亿，日活跃用户（DAU）达到1.07亿，平均每日使用时长提升至108分钟。该平台的Z世代+用户群体，平均年龄为26岁，显示出越来越强的购买力，推动了对游戏、人工智能和生活方式内容的需求。哔哩哔哩的创作者生态系统蓬勃发展，拥有150万名创收创作者，粉丝驱动的收入同比增长200%。战略举措，如与央视春晚的合作和全球动漫发行，提升了品牌知名度。基于人工智能的广告工具和基于表现的广告同比增长超过30%，而SLG游戏《三国志》和经典作品如《FGO》和《碧蓝航线》则推动了游戏的增长。展望未来，哔哩哔哩有望继续利用其社区增长和商业化的机会。随着忠实的Z世代+用户群体进入消费高峰期，公司将继续通过增强广告精准投放、直播和粉丝创作者生态系统来加深商业化。其游戏管道也预计将持续高利润增长。人工智能创新，从内容发现到广告效率，将进一步优化用户参与度和收入。25财年第二季度建议交易区间：17美元至23美元。积极前景。
  

Viking Holdings Ltd. (VIK)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $897.06M, +24.9% YoY, beat estimates by $55.88M
  
• 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: –$0.24, beat estimates by $0.03
  
• FY25 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  
• Comment: Viking Holdings delivered better-than-expected results for the quarter, supported by a 14.9% year-over-year increase in capacity passenger cruise days, driven by the addition of two new river vessels and one ocean ship in 2024. Quarterly occupancy reached 94.5%. As of May 11, Viking had sold 92% of its capacity for the 2025 season and 37% for 2026, though the 2026 booking pace is slightly behind last year’s levels. The company expects to take delivery of one ocean ship and nine river vessels over the remainder of 2025. While management expressed optimism, forward guidance remains somewhat vague. Broader industry trends are also mixed—some peers are ramping up capacity in response to sustained demand, while others are noting early signs of softness in future bookings. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $40 to $50. Neutral Outlook.
  

Viking Holdings Ltd. (VIK)

• 25财年第一季营收： 8.9706亿美元，同比增长24.9%，超出预期5,588万美元
  
• 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股亏损： 0.24美元，超出预期0.03美元
  
• 25财年指引： 未提供指引。
  
• 短评： Viking Holdings 本季度业绩好于预期，这得益于2024年新增两艘内河船和一艘远洋船，使载客邮轮天数同比增长14.9%。本季度入住率达到94.5%。截至5月11日，Viking 已售出2025年92%的运力以及2026年37%的运力，尽管2026年的预订速度略低于去年同期水平。公司预计在2025年剩余时间里将交付一艘远洋船和九艘内河船。尽管管理层表达了乐观情绪，但前瞻性指引仍有些模糊。更广泛的行业趋势也喜忧参半——一些同行正在扩大运力以应对持续的需求，而另一些则注意到未来预订出现疲软的早期迹象。25财年第二季建议交易区间：40美元至50美元。中性前景。
  

Palo Alto Networks Inc. (PANW)

• 3Q25 Revenue: $2.29B, +15.7% YoY, beat estimates by $10M
  
• 3Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.80, beat estimates by $0.03
  
• 4Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue to be between $2.49bn to $2.51bn (midpoint of $2.50bn in-line with consensus; Expect Non-GAAP EPS to be between $0.87 to $0.89. midpoint of $0.88 above estimates of $0.87.
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expect revenue to be between $9.17bn to $9.19bn (midpoint of $9.18bn in line with consensus; Expect Non-GAAP EPS to be between $3.26 to $3.28. midpoint of $3.27 above estimates of $3.23; Expect Next-Generation Security ARR to be between $5.52bn to $5.57bn; Expect remaining performance obligation to be between $15.2bn to $15.3bn.
  
• Comment: Palo Alto Networks reported strong third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with earnings and revenue exceeding expectations, though gross margin came in slightly below consensus. The performance was driven by continued momentum in its Next-Generation Security (NGS) portfolio, with NGS annual recurring revenue rising 34% year-over-year to $5.09 billion. Remaining performance obligations reached $13.5 billion, up 19% from a year ago, while operating income increased 23% to $627 million. However, the company posted a non-GAAP gross margin of 76%, missing market expectations of 77.2%. Management noted a slowdown in firewall appliance sales but emphasized the growing contribution of its cloud-based security offerings, which have expanded significantly through acquisitions. Looking ahead, the company issued upbeat guidance, signaling confidence in its business trajectory despite some near-term demand pressures. 4Q25 recommended trading range: $170 to $200. Neutral Outlook.
  

派拓网络 (PANW)

• 25财年第三季营收： 22.9亿美元，同比增长15.7%，超出预期1,000万美元
  
• 25财年第三季Non-GAAP每股收益： 0.80美元，超出预期0.03美元
  
• 25财年第四季指引： 预计营收在24.9亿美元至25.1亿美元之间（中点25.0亿美元与市场预期一致）；预计Non-GAAP每股收益在0.87美元至0.89美元之间（中点0.88美元高于市场预期0.87美元）。
  
• 25财年指引： 预计营收在91.7亿美元至91.9亿美元之间（中点91.8亿美元与市场预期一致）；预计Non-GAAP每股收益在3.26美元至3.28美元之间（中点3.27美元高于市场预期3.23美元）；预计下一代安全年度经常性收入（ARR）在55.2亿美元至55.7亿美元之间；预计剩余履约义务在152亿美元至153亿美元之间。
  
• 短评： 派拓网络公布了强劲的2025财年第三季度业绩，盈利和营收均超出预期，尽管毛利率略低于市场预期。业绩得益于其下一代安全（NGS）产品组合的持续增长势头，NGS年度经常性收入同比增长34%至50.9亿美元。剩余履约义务达到135亿美元，同比增长19%，而运营收入增长23%至6.27亿美元。然而，公司公布的Non-GAAP毛利率为76%，低于市场预期的77.2%。管理层指出防火墙设备销售放缓，但强调其基于云的安全产品贡献日益增长，这些产品通过收购得到了显著扩展。展望未来，公司发布了乐观的指引，表明尽管面临一些近期需求压力，但对其业务发展轨迹充满信心。25财年第四季建议交易区间：170美元至200美元。中性前景。
  

Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL)

• 2Q25 Revenue: $2.74B, -3.5% YoY, beat estimates by $250M
  
• 2Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.50, beat estimates by $0.64
  
• 3Q25 Guidance: Expect 3Q25 deliveries of 2.8K-3.0K homes (midpoint 2.9K), vs consensus of 2,987 homes. Average delivered price per home for the quarter is expected to be $965K-$985K (midpoint $975K). FY25 Guidance: The company reaffirmed its full-year outlook, expecting to deliver 11,200-11,600 units.
  
• Comment: Toll Brothers delivered solid quarterly results and reaffirmed its full-year guidance. Home-building revenue grew 2.2% year-over-year to $2.71 billion, helping to offset an 83% decline in land sales, which fell to $32.6 million. While management acknowledged a softer demand environment this quarter, they remain confident in the long-term prospects of the new home market—especially in the luxury segment—citing persistent housing shortages and supportive demographic trends. However, the recent U.S. credit rating downgrade by Moody’s pushed the average 30-year mortgage rate back above 7%, which could pose near-term headwinds as higher borrowing costs may dampen consumer spending on housing. 3Q25 recommended trading range: $95 to $125. Neutral Outlook.
  

托尔兄弟(TOL)

• 25财年第二季营收： 27.4亿美元，同比下降3.5%，超出预期2.5亿美元
  
• 25财年第二季Non-GAAP每股收益： 3.50美元，超出预期0.64美元
  
• 25财年第三季指引： 预计25财年第三季度交付2,800-3,000套房屋（中点2,900套），市场预期为2,987套。本季度每套房屋的平均交付价格预计为96.5万美元-98.5万美元（中点97.5万美元）。
  
• 25财年指引： 公司重申其全年展望，预计交付11,200-11,600套房屋。
  
• 短评： Toll Brothers 公布了稳健的季度业绩，并重申了其全年指引。房屋建造收入同比增长2.2%至27.1亿美元，这有助于抵消土地销售83%的下降，土地销售额降至3,260万美元。尽管管理层承认本季度需求环境有所疲软，但他们对新房市场（尤其是豪华住宅领域）的长期前景仍充满信心，理由是持续的住房短缺和支持性的人口趋势。然而，穆迪最近下调美国信用评级将30年期抵押贷款平均利率推回到7%以上，这可能会带来近期不利因素，因为更高的借贷成本可能会抑制消费者在住房方面的支出。25财年第三季建议交易区间：95美元至125美元。中性前景。