Technical Analysis – 09 May 2025

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Samsara Inc. (IOT US)

• Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA and is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 43, Target 48, Stop 40.5
  

Workday, Inc. (WDAY US)

• Shares closed at a high since March 2025. 5dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
  
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 256, Target 276, Stop 246
  

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Q&M Dental Group Ltd. (QNM SP)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume. 20dEMA recently crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Buy – Entry 0.315, Target 0.340, Stop 0.300
  

NetLink NBN Trust. (NETLINK SP)

• Shares closed at a high since September 2025 with constructive volume.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Buy – Entry 0.920 Target 0.960, Stop 0.900
  

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Li Auto Inc (2015 HK)

• Shares closed at a one-month high above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume.
  
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 104, Target 112, Stop 100
  
  
  
  
  

  

  
  

Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd (175 HK)

• Shares closed at a one-month high above the 5dMEA with a surge in volume. The 20dEMA crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 17.1, Target 18.5, Stop 16.4
  
  
  

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Shopify Inc. (SHOP)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $2.36B, +26.9% YoY, beat estimates by $30M
  
• 1Q25 GAAP EPS: –$0.53, miss estimates by $0.70
  
• 2Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue growth to be around mid-twenties on a YoY basis; expects gross profit to grow at a high-teens percentage rate; expects operating expenses to represent 39% to 40% of revenue.
  
• Comment: Shopify reported revenue that exceeded expectations, but posted a significantly wider quarterly net loss compared to the prior year. The company’s net loss widened to $682 mn in the quarter, up from $273 mn a year earlier. Gross merchandise volume (GMV) totaled $74.8 bn—broadly in line with estimates—but marked a slowdown from $94.5 bn in the previous quarter. Guidance for 2Q25 came in lighter than anticipated, as Shopify cited macroeconomic uncertainties, including the impact of tariffs. However, management noted that some of these headwinds could be offset by more favorable foreign exchange rates. Investor concerns persist over Shopify’s exposure to Chinese imports, which currently face a 145% tariff. While the company has made efforts to attract larger retailers, a substantial portion of its merchant base still consists of smaller businesses. These merchants may be disproportionately affected by rising tariffs and the potential closure of the de minimis loophole, which previously allowed shipments under $800 to enter the U.S. duty-free. Despite these pressures, management highlighted that cross-border orders accounted for 15% of GMV in the quarter, signaling ongoing international demand. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $80 to $110. Neutral Outlook.
  

Shopify Inc. (SHOP)

• 25财年第一季营收：23.6亿美元，同比增长26.9%，超出预期3,000万美元
  
• 25财年第一季GAAP每股亏损：0.53美元，低于预期0.70美元
  
• 25财年第二季指引：预计营收同比增长率约为20%中段；预计毛利润增长率为10%以上；预计运营费用占营收的39%至40%。
  
• 短评：Shopify营收超出预期，但季度净亏损较上年同期显著扩大。该公司本季度净亏损扩大至6.82亿美元，高于去年同期的2.73亿美元。商品交易总额（GMV）总计748亿美元，大致符合预期，但较上一季度的945亿美元有所放缓。25财年第二季指引低于预期，Shopify将此归因于包括关税影响在内的宏观经济不确定性。然而，管理层指出，一些不利因素可能被更有利的外汇汇率所抵消。投资者仍然担心Shopify对中国进口商品的敞口，这些商品目前面临145%的关税。尽管该公司已努力吸引更大的零售商，但其大部分商家仍然是小型企业。这些商家可能更容易受到关税上涨和“微量进口商品免税”漏洞潜在关闭的影响，该漏洞此前允许价值低于800美元的货物免税进入美国。尽管面临这些压力，管理层强调，本季度跨境订单占GMV的15%，表明国际需求依然存在。25财年第二季建议交易区间：80美元至110美元。中性前景。
  

D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $15M, +507.3% YoY, beat estimates by $4.5M
  
• 1Q25 GAAP EPS: –$0.02, beat estimates by $0.03
  
• FY25 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  
• Comment: The company reported record first-quarter revenue and a narrower quarterly loss. Management emphasized that Q1 FY25 was a pivotal period, highlighted by the sale of an Advantage quantum system to Germany’s Jülich Supercomputing Centre—a key milestone that significantly contributed to revenue. The installation accounted for the bulk of recognized revenue during the quarter. Importantly, the sale also laid the groundwork for future revenue streams, including ongoing service contracts, maintenance, and upgrades to next-generation hardware. With growing interest in quantum computing, the CEO noted active discussions with several potential customers, including companies in the airline and mobile gaming sectors. D-Wave’s current client base includes notable names such as Mastercard and NTT Docomo, Japan’s largest wireless carrier. Still, it is good to note that the industry remains in its early stages. Quantum computing has yet to reach a commercial inflection point, and widespread scalability is expected to take several more years. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $8.0 to $12.0. Positive Outlook.
  

D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS)

• 25财年第一季营收：1,500万美元，同比增长507.3%，超出预期450万美元
  
• 25财年第一季GAAP每股亏损：0.02美元，超出预期0.03美元
  
• 25财年指引：未提供指引。
  
• 短评：该公司报告了创纪录的第一季度营收和更窄的季度亏损。管理层强调，25财年第一季度是一个关键时期，其亮点是向德国尤利希超级计算中心出售了一台Advantage量子系统——这是一个显著推动营收的关键里程碑。此次安装占本季度确认收入的大部分。重要的是，此次销售也为未来的收入来源奠定了基础，包括持续的服务合同、维护和下一代硬件的升级。随着对量子计算的兴趣日益浓厚，首席执行官指出，正与包括航空公司和手机游戏公司在内的几家潜在客户进行积极讨论。D-Wave目前的客户群包括万事达卡和日本最大的无线运营商NTT Docomo等知名企业。然而，值得注意的是，该行业仍处于早期阶段。量子计算尚未达到商业拐点，广泛的规模化预计还需要几年时间。25财年第二季建议交易区间：8.0美元至12.0美元。积极前景。
  

Crocs Inc. (CROX)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $937.33M, -0.1% YoY, beat estimates by $29.41M
  
• 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.00, beat estimates by $0.51
  
• FY25 guidance: No guidance provided.
  
• Comment: Crocs delivered a strong set of results, with management expressing confidence in the overall business performance through April. However, they acknowledged that rising global trade uncertainties have created a more unpredictable environment for both businesses and consumers, making future shopper behavior harder to forecast. Despite these headwinds, Crocs sees continued opportunities to gain market share by focusing on controllable factors and leveraging its competitive strengths. The company emphasized its resilience and history of emerging stronger from uncertain periods. Staying attuned to consumer preferences, Crocs recently launched a sneaker-sandal hybrid under its new Exp line, targeting trail enthusiasts. Meanwhile, performance at its Hey Dude brand remains challenged. Revenue for Hey Dude declined 9.8% to $176 mn, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales up 8.3% to $65 mn, but wholesale revenue down 17.9% to $111 mn. Due to ongoing macroeconomic volatility tied to global trade policy, Crocs also withdrew its previously issued guidance for 2025. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $100 to $130. Positive Outlook.
  

卡骆驰 (CROX)

• 25财年第一季营收：9.3733亿美元，同比下降0.1%，超出预期2,941万美元
  
• 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益：3.00美元，超出预期0.51美元
  
• 25财年指引：未提供指引。
  
• 短评：Crocs公布了一组强劲的业绩，管理层对4月份的整体业务表现表示乐观。然而，他们承认，全球贸易不确定性的加剧为企业和消费者创造了一个更加难以预测的环境，使得未来消费者的行为更难预测。尽管面临这些不利因素，Crocs认为通过关注可控因素和利用其竞争优势，仍有持续获得市场份额的机会。该公司强调了其韧性以及在不确定时期变得更强大的历史。为了紧跟消费者偏好，Crocs最近在其新的Exp系列下推出了一款运动鞋凉鞋混合款，目标是越野爱好者。与此同时，其Hey Dude品牌的业绩仍然面临挑战。Hey Dude的营收下降9.8%至1.76亿美元，其中直接面向消费者（DTC）的销售额增长8.3%至6,500万美元，但批发收入下降17.9%至1.11亿美元。由于与全球贸易政策相关的持续宏观经济波动，Crocs还撤回了此前发布的2025年指引。25财年第二季建议交易区间：100美元至130美元。积极前景。
  

The Trade Desk Inc. (TTD)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $616M, +25.4% YoY, beat estimates by $40.72M
  
• 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.33, beat estimates by $0.08
  
• 2Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue to be at least $682mn, representing a growth of around 17% YoY; Expect adjusted EBITDA of approximately $259mn.
  
• Comment: The Trade Desk delivered strong results, reflecting early benefits from strategic upgrades introduced in Q4. A key driver was the growing adoption of its AI-powered Kokai platform—an advanced media-buying solution equipped with enhanced decision-making and campaign measurement capabilities. Kokai processes over 13 mn ad impressions per second, transforming that complexity into real-time, actionable insights. The platform enables advertisers to efficiently purchase the right impressions at the optimal price, targeting the right audience at the most effective time. Management remains confident in the company’s ability to outperform the broader market by continuing to deliver value to marketers seeking objective, transparent, and data-driven advertising on the open internet. Customer retention remained strong, exceeding 95% during the quarter—a level the company has maintained for 11 consecutive years. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $60 to $80. Positive Outlook.
  

The Trade Desk Inc. (TTD)

• 25财年第一季营收：6.16亿美元，同比增长25.4%，超出预期4,072万美元
  
• 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益：0.33美元，超出预期0.08美元
  
• 25财年第二季指引：预计营收至少为6.82亿美元，同比增长约17%；预计调整后EBITDA约为2.59亿美元。
  
• 短评：The Trade Desk公布了强劲的业绩，反映了第四季度推出的战略升级带来的早期效益。一个关键驱动因素是其人工智能驱动的Kokai平台的日益普及——这是一个先进的媒体购买解决方案，配备了增强的决策和广告活动衡量能力。Kokai每秒处理超过1300万次广告展示，将这种复杂性转化为实时的、可操作的洞察。该平台使广告商能够以最优的价格高效地购买合适的广告展示，在最有效的时间定位合适的受众。管理层仍然对公司通过继续为在开放互联网上寻求客观、透明和数据驱动广告的营销人员提供价值，从而跑赢更广泛市场的能力充满信心。客户留存率依然强劲，本季度超过95%——该公司已连续11年保持这一水平。25财年第二季建议交易区间：60美元至80美元。积极前景。
  

Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $2.03B, +23.8% YoY, miss estimates by $60M
  
• 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.94, miss estimates by $0.04
  
• 2Q25 guidance: Expect subscription and service revenue in the range of $600mn to $680mn.
  
• Comment: Coinbase reported growth in stablecoin revenue, but overall results fell short of market expectations. Consumer trading volume declined 17% quarter-over-quarter to $78.1 bn, following a Q4 spike driven by optimism around President Donald Trump’s election and expectations of a more favorable regulatory environment. Institutional trading volume also dipped 9% to $315 bn in 1Q25. Despite several tailwinds for crypto in the first quarter—including bitcoin hitting an all-time high on January 20—market volatility resurfaced in April amid concerns over Trump’s tariff policies, which weighed on risk appetite and dampened crypto trading activity. Looking ahead, stablecoin revenue growth in Q2 may be offset by a decline in blockchain rewards due to weaker asset prices. In a strategic move to expand internationally, Coinbase recently announced its $2.9 bn acquisition of Deribit, a leading Dubai-based crypto derivatives exchange. The deal, the largest in crypto industry history, marks a significant step in strengthening Coinbase’s global presence. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $170 to $230. Neutral Outlook.
  

Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN)

• 25财年第一季营收：20.3亿美元，同比增长23.8%，低于预期6,000万美元
  
• 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益：1.94美元，低于预期0.04美元
  
• 25财年第二季指引：预计订阅和服务收入在6亿至6.8亿美元之间。
  
• 短评：Coinbase报告了稳定币收入的增长，但整体业绩未达到市场预期。继第四季度因唐纳德·特朗普总统选举的乐观情绪和对更有利监管环境的预期推动的飙升之后，消费者交易量环比下降17%至781亿美元。机构交易量在25财年第一季度也下降了9%至3150亿美元。尽管第一季度加密货币有利好因素（包括比特币在1月20日创下历史新高），但由于对特朗普关税政策的担忧，市场波动在4月份再次出现，这打压了风险偏好并抑制了加密货币交易活动。展望未来，由于资产价格走弱，第二季度稳定币收入的增长可能被区块链奖励的下降所抵消。为了扩大国际业务，Coinbase最近宣布以29亿美元收购总部位于迪拜的领先加密货币衍生品交易所Deribit。这笔交易是加密货币行业历史上规模最大的一笔交易，标志着Coinbase加强其全球业务的重要一步。25财年第二季建议交易区间：170美元至230美元。中性前景。
  

MARA Holdings Inc. (MARA)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $213.9m, +29.5% YoY, miss estimates by $3.7M
  
• 1Q25 GAAP EPS: -$1.55, miss estimates by $1.18
  
• 2Q25 guidance: No guidance provided.
  
• Comment: MARA Holdings reported a weak quarter, posting a net loss despite continued YoY revenue growth. The company has been aggressively accumulating Bitcoin, with its holdings rising 175% from a year ago to 47,531 BTC—nearly triple the 17,320 BTC held at the end of 1Q24. According to CoinGecko, this makes MARA the second-largest Bitcoin holder among all publicly traded companies. However, Bitcoin production during the quarter declined 19% year-over-year to 2,286 BTC. The company attributed the drop to the most recent Bitcoin halving, which cut mining rewards to 3.125 BTC per block and tightened overall supply. MARA continues to position itself as a growth-focused company and maintains its long-term view of Bitcoin as a premier macro hedge in times of economic uncertainty. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $12 to $16. Neutral Outlook.
  

MARA Holdings Inc. (MARA)

• 25财年第一季营收：2.139亿美元，同比增长29.5%，低于预期370万美元
  
• 25财年第一季GAAP每股亏损：1.55美元，低于预期1.18美元
  
• 25财年第二季指引：未提供指引。
  
• 短评：MARA Holdings报告了一个疲软的季度，尽管营收同比增长，但仍出现净亏损。该公司一直在积极积累比特币，其持有的比特币数量较一年前增长了175%，达到47531枚，几乎是24财年第一季度末持有的17320枚比特币的三倍。根据CoinGecko的数据，这使得MARA成为所有上市公司中第二大比特币持有者。然而，本季度比特币产量同比下降19%至2286枚。该公司将下降归因于最近一次比特币减半，这使得每个区块的挖矿奖励降至3.125枚比特币，并收紧了整体供应。MARA继续将自己定位为一家专注于增长的公司，并坚持其将比特币视为经济不确定时期首要宏观对冲工具的长期观点。25财年第二季建议交易区间：12美元至16美元。中性前景。
  

Cloudflare Inc. (NET)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $479.09M, +26.5% YoY, beat estimates by $9.39M
  
• 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.16, in line with estimates
  
• 2Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue to be between $500mn to 501mn, midpoint of $500.5mn below consensus of $502mn; expects non-GAAP income from operations to be between $62.5mn to $63.5mn; expects Non-GAAP EPS to be $0.18, below consensus of $0.19.
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expect net sales to be $2.09bn, below consensus of $2.10bn; expects non-GAAP income from operations to be between $272mn to $276; Expect Non-GAAP EPS to be between $0.79 to $0.80, below consensus of $1.03.
  
• Comment: Cloudflare reported better-than-expected revenue and earnings that were in line with expectations. Management noted that the company entered 2025 with strong momentum, confidence, and solid performance. In Q1, Cloudflare secured the largest contract in its history—a deal exceeding $100 mn, driven by its Workers developer platform—and also signed its longest-term SASE agreement to date. While forward guidance came in slightly below market expectations, the company emphasized its strong positioning to capture long-term opportunities. This is reflected in the growing scale and duration of its deals, as well as the quality of enterprise customers choosing Cloudflare. Looking ahead, the company remains optimistic, supported by continued growth in high-potential areas such as AI and cybersecurity, and the ongoing expansion of its enterprise customer base. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $125 to $150. Positive Outlook.
  

Cloudflare Inc. (NET)

• 25财年第一季营收：4.7909亿美元，同比增长26.5%，超出预期939万美元
  
• 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益：0.16美元，符合预期
  
• 25财年第二季指引：预计营收在5亿至5.01亿美元之间，中点为5.005亿美元，低于市场普遍预期的5.02亿美元；预计Non-GAAP运营收入在6,250万至6,350万美元之间；预计Non-GAAP每股收益为0.18美元，低于市场普遍预期的0.19美元。
  
• 25财年指引：预计净销售额为20.9亿美元，低于市场普遍预期的21.0亿美元；预计Non-GAAP运营收入在2.72亿至2.76亿美元之间；预计Non-GAAP每股收益在0.79至0.80美元之间，低于市场普遍预期的1.03美元。
  
• 短评：Cloudflare报告了超出预期的营收和符合预期的盈利。管理层指出，公司以强劲的势头、信心和稳健的业绩进入2025年。第一季度，Cloudflare获得了其历史上最大的合同——一项超过1亿美元的交易，这得益于其Workers开发者平台——并签署了迄今为止最长期的SASE协议。尽管前瞻性指引略低于市场预期，但该公司强调其在抓住长期机遇方面处于有利地位。这体现在其交易规模和期限的不断扩大，以及选择Cloudflare的企业客户的质量上。展望未来，该公司仍然乐观，这得益于人工智能和网络安全等高潜力领域的持续增长，以及其企业客户群的不断扩大。25财年第二季建议交易区间：125美元至150美元。积极前景。
  

DraftKings Inc. (DKNG)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $1.41B, +19.5% YoY, miss estimates by $20M
  
• 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.12, in line with estimates
  
• FY25 guidance: Lowered FY25 revenue guidance to between $6.2bn to $6.4bn, midpoint below consensus of $6.37bn, and vs $6.3bn to $6.5bn previously
  
• Comment: DraftKings reported earnings in line with expectations, though revenue came in below forecasts. YoY revenue growth was driven by strong customer engagement, new user acquisition, a higher structural sportsbook hold percentage, and the contribution from the Jackpocket acquisition. Monthly Unique Payers (MUPs) rose 28% to 4.3mn in Q1, supported by strong retention, new customer growth, and the integration of Jackpocket. However, the company faced a setback in March during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament—one of the most popular betting events in the U.S.—as game outcomes favored bettors, leading to higher-than-expected payouts. These results more than offset the benefits of a favorable Super Bowl outcome for DraftKings. Looking ahead, management remains confident in the company’s positioning amid the current macroeconomic environment. They emphasized the resilience of the online gaming and betting sector and noted that the company is beginning to realize greater operational efficiency, particularly as broader corporate demand, including advertising, continues to moderate. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $33 to $42. Positive Outlook.
  

DraftKings Inc. (DKNG)

• 25财年第一季营收：14.1亿美元，同比增长19.5%，低于预期2,000万美元
  
• 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益：0.12美元，符合预期
  
• 25财年指引：将25财年营收指引下调至62亿至64亿美元之间，中点低于市场普遍预期的63.7亿美元，此前指引为63亿至65亿美元。
  
• 短评：DraftKings报告的盈利符合预期，但营收低于预期。营收同比增长得益于强劲的客户参与度、新用户获取、更高的结构性体育博彩持有率以及收购Jackpocket的贡献。第一季度月独立付费用户（MUPs）增长28%至430万，这得益于强劲的用户留存、新客户增长以及Jackpocket的整合。然而，该公司在3月份的NCAA男子篮球锦标赛（美国最受欢迎的博彩赛事之一）中遭遇挫折，比赛结果对博彩者有利，导致赔付高于预期。这些结果超过了对DraftKings有利的超级碗比赛结果所带来的好处。展望未来，管理层对其在当前宏观经济环境下的定位仍然充满信心。他们强调了在线游戏和博彩行业的韧性，并指出公司已开始实现更高的运营效率，尤其是在包括广告在内的更广泛的企业需求持续放缓的情况下。25财年第二季建议交易区间：33美元至42美元。积极前景。
  

Innodata Inc. (INOD)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $58.34M, +120.2% YoY, beat estimates by $0.71M
  
• 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.22, beat estimates by $0.05
  
• FY25 guidance: Reiterate guidance of 40% or more revenue growth in 2025.
  
• Comment: Innodata delivered strong results in Q1 2025, marking a solid start to the year. Management emphasized growing momentum, with the company onboarding potential major clients, deepening existing relationships, and building the most advanced pipeline in its history. Notably, Innodata recently signed a second master statement of work with its largest customer, allowing them to access Innodata’s services under a new budget category. Additionally, four other Big Tech clients awarded new engagements valued at approximately $8 mn. The company is also in active discussions with five other Big Tech customers. Looking ahead, Innodata plans to reinvest a portion of its operating cash flow into targeted technology initiatives and strategic hiring in sales and solutions to support both current and future AI-related demand. Management remains confident that these investments can be made while still growing adjusted EBITDA in 2025 over 2024. Innodata also noted that its business is largely insulated from short-term economic cycles and trade policy shifts. The company is well-positioned to benefit from sustained AI-driven capital investment by the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants, for whom AI remains a strategic priority. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $33 to $48. Positive Outlook.
  

Innodata Inc. (INOD)

• 25财年第一季营收：5,834万美元，同比增长120.2%，超出预期71万美元
  
• 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益：0.22美元，超出预期0.05美元
  
• 25财年指引：重申2025年营收增长40%或以上的指引。
  
• 短评：Innodata在25财年第一季度取得了强劲的业绩，为今年开了个好头。管理层强调增长势头强劲，公司正在争取潜在的主要客户，深化现有合作关系，并建立了其历史上最先进的潜在客户渠道。值得注意的是，Innodata最近与其最大的客户签署了第二份主工作说明书，使其能够在新的预算类别下获得Innodata的服务。此外，其他四家大型科技客户授予了价值约800万美元的新合同。该公司还正在与另外五家大型科技客户进行积极的讨论。展望未来，Innodata计划将其部分运营现金流再投资于有针对性的技术项目以及销售和解决方案方面的战略招聘，以支持当前和未来与人工智能相关的需求。管理层仍然相信，可以在增加2025年调整后EBITDA的同时进行这些投资。Innodata还指出，其业务在很大程度上不受短期经济周期和贸易政策变化的影响。该公司有望受益于“七巨头”科技公司持续的、人工智能驱动的资本投资，人工智能仍然是这些公司的战略重点。25财年第二季建议交易区间：33美元至48美元。积极前景。