Technical Analysis – 30 April 2025

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Zoom Communications, Inc. (ZM US)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA and 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 77.0, Target 85.0, Stop 73.0
  

Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT US)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA and the 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 103, Target 113, Stop 98
  

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Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd. (JM SP)

• Shares closed at a high since December 2024. The 20dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Buy – Entry 45.0, Target 48.0, Stop 43.5
  

DFI Retail Group Holdings Ltd. (DFI SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. 20dEMA recently crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  
• Buy – Entry 2.42 Target 2.60, Stop 2.33
  

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Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd (175 HK)

• Shares closed above the 50dEMA with an increase in volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
  
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 16.2, Target 17.4, Stop 15.6
  
  
  
  
  

  

  
  

Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co Ltd (3606 HK)

• Shares closed at a 3-week high above the 5dEMA.
  
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  
• Long – Entry 54.6, Target 59.0, Stop 52.4
  
  
  

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SoFi Technologies Inc. (SOFI)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $771M, +32.8% YoY, beat estimates by $32.09M
  
• 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.06, beat estimates by $0.03
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expect to deliver adjusted net revenue of $3.235bn to $3.310bn, above prior guidance of $3.20bn to $3.275bn, implying a growth of 24% to 27% annually versus 23% to 26% previously; Expect adjusted EBITDA of $875mn to $895mn, above prior guidance of $845mn to $865mn; Expect GAAP net income of $320mn to $330mn, above previous guidance of $285mn to $305mn; Expect GAAP EPS of $0.27 to $0.28 cents per share, above previous guidance of $0.25 to $0.27 cents per share.
  
• Comment: SoFi Technologies delivered a strong quarterly performance and raised its full-year FY25 guidance, reflecting broad-based strength across all business segments. Financial Services revenue more than doubled year-over-year, rising 101% to $303 million. The company added a record 800,000 new customers during the quarter, underscoring robust user growth. Total loan originations reached $7.2 billion, including $1.6 billion in the first quarter alone. Home loan originations grew 54%, supported in part by the successful rollout of a new home equity offering introduced over the past year. In contrast to peers maintaining cautious outlooks, SoFi’s upward revision to its FY25 guidance highlights both operational momentum and relative stability amid broader market uncertainty. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $11.5 to $16.0. Positive Outlook.
  

索菲科技 (SOFI)

• 25年第一季营收：7.71亿美元，同比增长32.8%，超出预期3,209万美元
  
• 25年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益：0.06美元，超出预期0.03美元
  
• 25财年指引：预计调整后净营收为32.35亿美元至33.10亿美元，高于此前指引的32.0亿美元至32.75亿美元，这意味着年增长率为24%至27%，高于此前的23%至26%；预计调整后EBITDA为8.75亿美元至8.95亿美元，高于此前指引的8.45亿美元至8.65亿美元；预计GAAP净利润为3.20亿美元至3.30亿美元，高于此前指引的2.85亿美元至3.05亿美元；预计GAAP每股收益为0.27美元至0.28美元，高于此前指引的0.25美元至0.27美元。
  
• 短评：索菲科技公司实现了强劲的季度业绩，并上调了其25财年全年指引，这反映了所有业务部门的广泛增长势头。金融服务营收同比增长超过一倍，增长101%至3.03亿美元。该公司在本季度新增了创纪录的80万新客户，凸显了强劲的用户增长。贷款发放总额达到72亿美元，仅第一季度就达到16亿美元。房屋贷款发放额增长了54%，部分得益于过去一年成功推出的一项新的房屋净值贷款业务。与同行保持谨慎的展望形成对比的是，公司上调其25财年指引突显了其运营势头以及在更广泛的市场不确定性中的相对稳定性。25年第二季建议交易区间：11.5美元至16.0美元。积极前景。
  

PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $7.8B, +1.0% YoY, miss estimates by $40M
  
• 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.33, beat estimates by $0.17
  
• 2Q25 guidance: The company issued better-than-expected guidance, forecasting adjusted earnings per share of $1.29 to $1.31, above consensus of $1.21. Transaction margin dollars will increase 4% to 5% to between $3.75bn and $3.8bn. FY25 guidance: Re-affirmed guidance, citing “global macroeconomic uncertainty.
  
• Comment: PayPal delivered mixed 1Q25 results but maintained an upbeat outlook for 2Q25. While revenue growth came in below expectations, the company reiterated its focus on prioritizing profitability over volume by phasing out lower-margin revenue streams. Active accounts rose 2% YoY to 436mn. However, total payment volume (TPV) slightly missed estimates, reaching $417.2bn versus the $418bn consensus. Management continues to emphasize monetizing strategic assets like Braintree and Venmo. Venmo revenue grew 20% YoY, with TPV up 10% to $75.9bn. Looking ahead, PayPal faces potential headwinds from evolving consumption trends, prospective tariffs, and intensifying competition from Apple and Shopify. Additionally, its exposure to China cross-border flows presents a growing risk amid possible changes to tariff policy and the de minimis exemption, which could weigh on branded checkout momentum over the longer term. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $56 to $76. Neutral Outlook.
  

贝宝(PYPL)

• 25年第一季营收：78亿美元，同比增长1.0%，低于预期4,000万美元
  
• 25年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益：1.33美元，超出预期0.17美元
  
• 25年第二季指引：公司发布了优于预期的指引，预计调整后每股收益为1.29美元至1.31美元，高于市场普遍预期的1.21美元。交易利润额将增长4%至5%，达到37.5亿美元至38亿美元之间。25财年指引：重申此前指引并提及“全球宏观经济不确定性”。
  
• 短评：贝宝25年第一季度业绩喜忧参半，但维持了对第二季度乐观的展望。尽管营收增长低于预期，但公司重申将优先考虑盈利能力而非交易量，逐步淘汰低利润的收入来源。活跃用户同比增长2%至4.36亿。然而，总支付交易额 (TPV) 略低于预期，为4,172亿美元，而市场普遍预期为4,180亿美元。管理层继续强调将Braintree和Venmo等战略资产变现。Venmo营收同比增长20%，TPV增长10%至759亿美元。展望未来，贝宝面临着消费趋势变化、潜在关税以及来自苹果和Shopify日益激烈的竞争等潜在不利因素。此外，其在中国跨境业务方面的敞口也构成了一个日益增长的风险，因为关税政策和最低限度规则的可能变化可能会长期影响其品牌结账业务的增长势头。25年第二季建议交易区间：56美元至76美元。中性前景。
  

United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $21.5B, -0.9% YoY, beat estimates by $480M
  
• 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.49, beat estimates by $0.11
  
• FY25 Guidance: No change to FY25 guidance. Expects revenue of $89bn and an operating margin of about 10.8%.
  
• Comment: United Parcel Service (UPS) reported strong quarterly results but announced plans to cut 20,000 jobs as part of a broader cost-reduction initiative amid ongoing economic uncertainty. The move also reflects anticipated volume softness from its largest customer, Amazon. Broader macro pressures, including extensive tariffs enacted under former President Donald Trump, have dampened global trade and prompted cost-cutting across industries. For logistics providers like UPS, reduced business-to-business shipping demand is becoming more evident. In addition to declining volumes from Amazon, UPS is seeing a sharp pullback from China-linked discount e-commerce platforms such as Temu, PDD, and Shein, following the U.S. decision to begin imposing tariffs—effective May 2—on previously duty-free purchases under $800. Looking ahead, tariff-related headwinds are expected to continue weighing on UPS’s volume growth and international exposure. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $80 to $110. Neutral Outlook.
  

联合包裹服务(UPS)

• 25年第一季营收：215亿美元，同比下降0.9%，超出预期4.8亿美元
  
• 25年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益：1.49美元，超出预期0.11美元
  
• 25财年指引：维持25财年指引不变。预计营收约为890亿美元，经营利润率约为10.8%。
  
• 短评：联合包裹服务布了强劲的季度业绩，但由于持续的经济不确定性，并为了更广泛的成本削减计划，宣布计划裁减20,000个工作岗位。此举也反映出其最大客户亚马逊的预期销量疲软。包括前总统唐纳德·特朗普实施的大范围关税在内的更广泛的宏观压力，已经抑制了全球贸易，并促使各行业进行成本削减。对于像UPS这样的物流供应商而言，企业对企业运输需求的下降变得越来越明显。除了来自亚马逊的货运量下降外，在美国决定于5月2日开始对之前低于800美元的免税商品征收关税后，UPS来自与中国相关的折扣电商平台（如Temu、PDD和Shein）的货运量也急剧下降。展望未来，与关税相关的阻力预计将继续对UPS的货运量增长和国际业务构成压力。25年第二季建议交易区间：80美元至110美元。中性前景。
  

Coca-Cola Co. (KO)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $11.1B, -1.5% YoY, miss estimates by $60M
  
• 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.73, beat estimates by $0.01
  
• FY25 Guidance: Reaffirmed FY2025 guidance. The company anticipates that its organic revenue will grow 5% to 6% and comparable earnings per share will increase 2% to 3%.
  
• Comment: Coca-Cola delivered mixed results, with resilient consumer demand helping offset broader declines in consumer sentiment. Management emphasized that while the company operates primarily through localised supply chains, it remains exposed to global trade dynamics that could impact key input costs, such as aluminium and orange juice. Despite these potential pressures, exacerbated by trade tensions and tariffs introduced under the President Donald Trump, Coca-Cola expects the impact to remain manageable at current levels. Notably, unlike peer PepsiCo, the company maintained its full-year guidance, reflecting relative stability and confidence in its business amid ongoing market uncertainty. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $70 to $77. Positive Outlook.
  

可口可乐(KO)

• 25年第一季营收：111亿美元，同比下降1.5%，低于预期6,000万美元
  
• 25年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益：0.73美元，超出预期0.01美元
  
• 25财年指引：重申2025财年指引。公司预计其有机营收将增长5%至6%，可比每股收益将增长2%至3%。
  
• 短评：可口可乐的业绩表现喜忧参半，消费者需求的韧性帮助抵消了更广泛的消费者信心下降的影响。管理层强调，尽管公司主要通过本地化供应链运营，但仍然受到全球贸易动态的影响，这可能会影响关键原材料成本，例如铝和橙汁。尽管受到贸易紧张局势和特朗普总统下所引入的关税的压力，可口可乐预计目前的影响仍然可控。值得注意的是，与同行百事可乐不同，该公司保持了全年指引，显示出在持续的市场不确定性中，相对的稳定性和对业务的信心。25年第二季建议交易区间：70美元至77美元。积极前景。
  

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $4.0B, +7.2% YoY, miss estimates by $20M
  
• 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.71, beat estimates by $0.18
  
• 2Q25 Guidance: Expect 2Q25 adjusted EPS of $4.00 to $4.10, with an estimate of $3.96. Net yields for the first quarter are expected to increase 4.4% to 4.9% in constant currency. FY25 Guidance: Expect FY25 net yields growth of 2.5% to 4.5% in constant currency; Raise its FY25 adjusted EPS outlook from a range of $14.35 to $14.65 to a range of $14.55 to $16.55 versus an estimate of $14.94.
  
• Comment: Royal Caribbean Cruises reported mixed results but raised its full-year profit outlook, driven by stronger-than-expected revenue, favorable currency movements, and lower fuel costs. The upward revision stands out, particularly as several major U.S. travel companies, including airlines, have pulled their guidance this earnings season amid macroeconomic uncertainty. Management noted that while domestic air travel demand has softened, Royal Caribbean continues to see strong momentum, with 2025 bookings on track, normal cancellation rates, and robust close-in demand. The sustained interest in cruising may reflect a value-driven consumer shift, as cruises often offer a more cost-effective alternative to comparable land-based vacations. As a result, demand for cruises appears more resilient in the face of broader economic headwinds. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $200 to $250. Positive Outlook.
  

皇家加勒比邮轮(RCL)

• 25年第一季营收：40亿美元，同比增长7.2%，低于预期2,000万美元
  
• 25年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益：2.71美元，超出预期0.18美元
  
• 25年第二季指引：预计25年第二季度调整后每股收益为4.00美元至4.10美元，市场预期为3.96美元。预计第一季度净收益率按固定汇率计算将增长4.4%至4.9%。25财年指引：预计25财年净收益率按固定汇率计算将增长2.5%至4.5%；将25财年调整后每股收益预期从14.35美元至14.65美元上调至14.55美元至16.55美元，市场预期为14.94美元。
  
• 短评：皇家加勒比邮轮公布了喜忧参半的业绩，但由于强于预期的营收、有利的汇率变动以及较低的燃料成本，上调了全年利润预期。此次上调尤为引人注目，因为包括航空公司在内的几家美国主要旅游公司在本财报季因宏观经济不确定性撤回了业绩指引。管理层指出，尽管国内航空旅行需求有所放缓，但皇家加勒比邮轮的需求持续强劲，2025年的预订量保持在正常水平，取消率正常，近期的需求也很强劲。消费者对邮轮的持续兴趣可能反映了一种注重价值的消费转变，因为与同等的陆地度假相比，邮轮通常提供更具成本效益的选择。因此，面对更广泛的经济逆风，邮轮需求似乎更具韧性。25年第二季建议交易区间：200美元至250美元。积极前景。
  

Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)

• 1Q25 Revenue: €4.2B, +15% YoY
  
• 1Q25 GAAP EPS: €1.07
  
• 2Q25 Guidance: Expect profit of €539M, below estimates of €557.5M. It expects monthly active users to rise to 689 million and premium subscribers to increase to 273 million above estimates of 684.9 million and 271.5million respectively.
  
• Comment: Spotify delivered strong subscriber growth in 1Q25, with premium users rising 12% YoY to 268 million and total monthly active users reaching 678 million, both beating estimates. However, profitability disappointed investors due to €76mn in charges tied to payroll taxes. Operating profit came in at €509mn, missing expectations, and Q2 profit guidance of €539mn also fell short of forecasts. Revenue rose 15% YoY to €4.19bn, just shy of estimates. Despite short-term margin pressures from compensation-related taxes, Spotify remains well-positioned for long-term growth. The company expects continued user expansion in Q2, with projected monthly active users of 689 million and premium subscribers reaching 273 million. Growth is expected to be fuelled by strong demand in Latin America and Asia-Pacific, as well as new high-tier subscription offerings and AI-driven personalization. With further monetization initiatives and content diversification, Spotify aims to balance user growth with improving profitability over time. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $570 to $590. Neutral Outlook.
  

Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)

• 25财年第一季营收：42亿欧元，同比增长15%
  
• 25财年第一季GAAP每股收益：1.07欧元
  
• 25财年第二季指引：预计利润为5.39亿欧元，低于预期的5.575亿欧元。预计月活跃用户将增至6.89亿，付费用户将增至2.73亿，高于预期的6.849亿和2.715亿。
  
• 短评： Spotify在25财年第一季度实现了强劲的用户增长，其中付费用户同比增长12%至2.68亿，总月活跃用户达到6.78亿，均超出预期。然而，由于与工资税相关的7,600万欧元的费用，盈利能力令投资者失望。营业利润为5.09亿欧元，低于预期，第二季度利润指引为5.39亿欧元，也低于预期。营收同比增长15%至41.9亿欧元，略低于预期。尽管与薪酬相关的税收带来短期利润压力，但Spotify仍为长期增长做好了充分准备。该公司预计第二季度用户将继续扩张，预计月活跃用户为6.89亿，付费用户达到2.73亿。拉丁美洲和亚太地区的强劲需求，以及新的高端订阅产品和人工智能驱动的个性化服务，预计将推动增长。通过进一步的货币化举措和内容多元化，Spotify旨在平衡用户增长与长期盈利能力的提高。25财年第二季度建议交易区间：570美元至590美元。中性前景。
  

Visa Inc (V)

• 2Q25 Revenue: $9.6B, +9.1% YoY, beat estimates by $50M
  
• 2Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.76, beat estimates by $0.08
  
• 3Q25 Guidance: Expect adjusted net revenue growth in the low double digits, essentially in line with Q2 and adjusted EPS growth to be in the high teens.
  
• FY25 Guidance: Maintain expectations for net revenue growth in the low double digits, operating expense growth in high single digit to low double digit and EPS in the low teens.
  
• Share buyback: Authorized a new $30B stock buyback program over several years and bought back $4.5B of shares during the first three months of 2025.
  
• Comment: Visa posted strong fiscal Q2 results, with adjusted earnings per share of US$2.76 beating analysts’ expectations of US$2.68. Net income rose 6% YoY to US$5.44bn, supported by resilient consumer spending despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and tariff-related concerns. Total payment volume reached US$3.34tn, slightly below expectations. The company also announced a US$30bn share repurchase program, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth. Visa continues to expand beyond traditional payments, with growth in cross-border transactions, stablecoin adoption, and value-added services like fraud prevention. Looking ahead, Visa expects continued low-double-digit growth in net revenue and low-teens growth in earnings per share for the full fiscal year. The company is well-positioned to benefit from evolving digital payment trends and increased global transaction volumes. Growth in value-added services and strategic partnerships, including those in crypto and fintech, are likely to diversify revenue streams further. While macroeconomic volatility and trade tensions persist, causing a significant drop in consumer confidence to 86 in April, sustained consumer spending remains critical for Visa’s continued earnings growth. 3Q25 recommended trading range: $330 to $360. Neutral Outlook.
  

威士(V)

• 25财年第二季营收：96亿美元，同比增长9.1%，超出预期5000万美元
  
• 25财年第二季Non-GAAP每股收益：2.76美元，超出预期0.08美元
  
• 25财年第三季指引：预计调整后净营收增长为低两位数，与第二季度基本持平，调整后每股收益增长为百分之十几的高位。
  
• 25财年指引：维持对净营收增长为低两位数、运营支出增长为个位数高位至两位数低位以及每股收益增长为百分之十几的低位预期。
  
• 股票回购：授权了一项新的300亿美元股票回购计划，将在几年内完成，并在2025年前三个月回购了45亿美元的股票。
  
• 短评： 威士公布了强劲的财年第二季度业绩，调整后每股收益为2.76美元，超过了分析师预期的2.68美元。在持续的宏观经济不确定性和与关税相关的担忧下，消费者支出保持弹性，净利润同比增长6%至54.4亿美元。总支付额达到3.34万亿美元，略低于预期。该公司还宣布了一项300亿美元的股票回购计划，反映了对其长期增长的信心。威士继续在传统支付之外扩张，跨境交易、稳定币采用和增值服务（如欺诈预防）均实现增长。展望未来，威士预计整个财年的净营收将继续保持低两位数的增长，每股收益将保持十几岁低位的增长。该公司已做好充分准备，可以从不断发展的数字支付趋势和全球交易量增加中受益。增值服务和战略合作伙伴关系（包括加密货币和金融科技领域的合作伙伴关系）可能会进一步实现收入来源的多元化。虽然宏观经济波动和贸易紧张局势持续存在，导致4月份消费者信心大幅下降至86，但持续的消费者支出对于威士持续的盈利增长仍然至关重要。25财年第三季度建议交易区间：330美元至360美元。中性前景。
  

Starbucks Corp (SBUX)

• 2Q25 Revenue: $8.76B, +2.3% YoY, miss estimates by $70M
  
• 2Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.41, miss estimates by $0.07
  
• FY25 Guidance: No revenue guidance provided. Starbucks plans to double its U.S. store count and focusing on cost management through zero-based budgeting. The company plans no further price increases for the remainder of the fiscal year and aims to enhance operational efficiency.
  
• Comment: Starbucks reported weaker-than-expected Q1 results, with global same-store sales down 1%, missing analyst estimates. The decline was driven by falling transactions in North America, the company’s largest market, amid consumer backlash, long wait times, price increases, and economic pessimism. Earnings per share of US$0.41 also missed expectations. However, international sales showed resilience, with a 2% gain overall and stabilization in China. The results mark the fifth consecutive quarterly decline in comparable sales. Despite this, its CEO emphasized that early turnaround efforts, such as menu simplification, store redesigns, and operational improvements, are beginning to show promise. The company is also taking proactive steps to manage cost pressures, including building coffee inventory and adjusting its supply chain to offset tariffs. Looking ahead, Starbucks is cautiously optimistic about returning to growth in the latter half of 2025 as its turnaround initiatives gain traction. However, macroeconomic uncertainty, tariffs impacting cost of goods, consumer sensitivity to pricing, and restructuring-related costs remain potential headwinds. 3Q25 recommended trading range: $70 to $85. Neutral Outlook.
  

星巴克公司 (SBUX)

• 25财年第二季营收：87.6亿美元，同比增长2.3%，低于预期7,000万美元
  
• 25财年第二季Non-GAAP每股收益：0.41美元，低于预期0.07美元
  
• 25财年指引：未提供营收指引。星巴克计划将其在美国的门店数量翻一番，并通过零基预算专注于成本管理。该公司计划在本财年剩余时间内不再提价，并旨在提高运营效率。
  
• 短评： 星巴克公布了弱于预期的第一季度业绩，全球同店销售额下降1%，低于分析师的预期。下降的原因是北美（该公司最大的市场）的销量下降，原因是消费者强烈反对、等待时间过长、价格上涨和经济悲观情绪。每股收益为0.41美元，也低于预期。然而，国际销售表现出弹性，总体增长2%，中国趋于稳定。该结果标志着可比销售额连续第五个季度下降。尽管如此，其首席执行官强调，早期的扭亏为盈的努力（如菜单简化、门店重新设计和运营改进）已开始显示出希望。该公司还在采取积极措施来管理成本压力，包括建立咖啡库存和调整其供应链以抵消关税。展望未来，星巴克对2025年下半年恢复增长持谨慎乐观态度，因为其扭亏为盈举措正在获得动力。然而，宏观经济不确定性、影响商品成本的关税、消费者对价格的敏感性以及与重组相关的成本仍然是潜在的阻力。25财年第三季度建议交易区间：70美元至85美元。中性前景。
  

Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $4.76B, +7.7% YoY, beat estimates by $170M
  
• 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $24.81, beat estimates by $7.24
  
• 2Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue growth to be between 10% and 12%, including a benefit of about 3 percentage points from the calendar shift of Easter into April. Adjusted EBITDA to be between about $2.15B and $2.2B, growing 16% YoY at the high end, which includes about 7 percentage points of YoY benefit from the Easter shift. Room night growth to be between 4% and 6%, which includes a slight headwind from the calendar shift of Easter into April. Estimate changes in FX will positively impact second quarter reported growth rates by about 4 percentage points.
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expect constant currency growth of mid-to-high single-digits for gross bookings and revenue and low- to mid-teens for adjusted EPS. The high end of each of these ranges remains in line with prior expectations and long-term growth ambition. Continue to expect to make targeted reinvestments across the organization of about $170M in 2025.
  
• Comment: Booking Holdings delivered strong first-quarter results, surpassing analyst expectations with adjusted EPS of US$24.81 and revenue of US$4.76bn above the US$4.59bn expected. Gross bookings rose 7% YoY to US$46.7bn, and room nights increased 7% to 319mn. The outperformance was driven by robust international travel demand, particularly from affluent Chinese tourists visiting Southeast Asia, which offset softness in U.S. consumer spending amid recession fears triggered by U.S. tariff policy. Despite global uncertainties, Booking saw continued stable travel trends into Q2 and provided guidance for 10% to 12% gross bookings growth and revenue growth in the same range. Looking ahead, Booking Holdings is poised to maintain solid performance through 2025, supported by stable global travel demand and strategic reinvestments. While geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty poses risks, the company expects mid-to-high single-digit constant currency growth in gross bookings and revenue, and low-to-mid teens growth in adjusted EPS for the full year. With targeted reinvestments and disciplined cost management, Booking anticipates adjusted EBITDA growth in the high single to low double digits, along with 50-100 basis points in margin expansion. The company remains well-positioned to capitalize on resilient travel demand in international markets. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $4,600 to $4,950. Neutral Outlook.
  

缤客 (BKNG)

• 25财年第一季营收：47.6亿美元，同比增长7.7%，超出预期1.7亿美元
  
• 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益：24.81美元，超出预期7.24美元
  
• 25财年第二季指引：预计营收增长在10%至12%之间，其中包括复活节在4月份带来的约3个百分点的日历效应。调整后的EBITDA预计在21.5亿美元至22亿美元之间，同比增长16%（最高端），其中包括复活节带来的约7个百分点的同比增长效应。间夜数增长预计在4%至6%之间，其中包括复活节在4月份带来的轻微不利影响。估计外汇变动将对第二季度报告的增长率产生约4个百分点的积极影响。
  
• 25财年指引：预计总预订量和营收的固定汇率增长为中到高个位数，调整后每股收益的增长为低到中十几位数。每个范围的高端与之前的预期和长期增长目标保持一致。继续预计在2025年在整个组织中进行约1.7亿美元的有针对性的再投资。
  
• 短评： 缤客公布了强劲的第一季度业绩，调整后的每股收益为24.81美元，营收为47.6亿美元，高于预期的45.9亿美元，超出分析师的预期。总预订量同比增长7%至467亿美元，间夜数增长7%至3.19亿。业绩超出预期的原因是强劲的国际旅游需求，特别是来自访问东南亚的富裕中国游客的需求，这抵消了美国关税政策引发的美国消费者支出疲软的影响。尽管全球存在不确定性，但缤客看到第二季度持续稳定的旅游趋势，并预计总预订量和营收增长在10%至12%之间。展望未来，在稳定的全球旅游需求和战略性再投资的支持下，缤客有望在2025年保持稳健的业绩。虽然地缘政治和宏观经济不确定性构成风险，但该公司预计总预订量和营收的固定汇率增长为中到高个位数，调整后的每股收益增长为低到中十几位数。通过有针对性的再投资和严格的成本管理，公司预计调整后的EBITDA增长为个位数高位至两位数低位，同时利润率扩张50-100个基点。该公司已做好充分准备，可以利用国际市场上有弹性的旅游需求。25财年第二季度建议交易区间：4600美元至4950美元。中性前景。