Technical Analysis – 21 August 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Century Aluminium Co. (CENX US)

• Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA and is about to cross the 20dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 14.70 Target 16.70, Stop 13.70

Endeavour Silver Corp. (EXK US)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
• MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is turning constructive.
• Long – Entry 3.20, Target 3.60, Stop 3.00

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First Resources Ltd. (FR SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA. 5dEMA and 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
• MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 1.43, Target 1.53, Stop 1.38

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp Ltd. (OCBC SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is turning constructive.
• Long – Entry 14.30 Target 15.30, Stop 13.80

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Xtep International Holdings Ltd (1368 HK)

• Shares closed at a one-month high above the 50dEMA with an increase in volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 50dEMA.
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
• Long – Entry 4.98, Target 5.40, Stop 4.77

Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (2600 HK)

• Shares closed above the 200dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
• Long – Entry 4.68, Target 5.08, Stop 4.48

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Lowe’s Companies Inc (LOW)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $23.59B, -5.5% YoY, miss estimates by $370M
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $4.10, beat estimates by $0.10
• FY24 Guidance: Expect total sales of $82.7B to $83.2B revised downwards from the previous $84B to $85B. Adjusted EPS to be between $11.7 to $11.9 from the previous $12.0 to $12.3. Comparable sales are expected to be down -3.5% to -4.0% from the previous -2% to -3%. Operating margin rate (% of revenue) lowered from prior 12.6% to 12.6%, to 12.4% to 12.5%. Expect capital expenditure of $2B.
• Comment: Tepid DIY demand led to a larger-than-expected 5.1% drop in second-quarter comparable sales. Despite cost control measures boosting earnings, lower sales in the second half may pose challenges. The company has cut its annual profit and sales forecasts, mirroring Home Depot’s concerns about weak home improvement demand due to high interest rates and sluggish home sales. Its CEO noted that fewer people are moving due to high mortgage rates, which impacts renovation projects. Lowe’s expects a 3.5% to 4% drop in comparable sales for the year and adjusted earnings per share of US$11.7 to US$11.9 lower than its previously forecasted US$12.0 to US$12.3. The company also revised its full-year sales outlook to US$82.7bn to US$83.2bn from its prior forecast of US$84.0bn to US$85bn. Despite expectations of a rate cut, the outlook for the second half of the year remains challenging. Substantial rate reductions are likely necessary to drive meaningful growth in home improvement activities and boost Lowe’s sales. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $230 to $260. Neutral Outlook.

劳氏公司 (LOW)

• 24财年第二季营收：235.9亿美元，同比跌幅5.5%，逊预期3.7亿美元
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：4.10美元，超预期0.10美元
• 24财年指引：预计总销售额从之前的840亿美元下调至850亿美元，为827亿至832亿美元。调整后的每股收益将从之前的12.0美元至12.3美元调整至11.7美元至11.9美元。可比销售额预计将从之前的-2%至-3%下-3.5%至-4.0%。营业利润率（占收入的百分比）从之前的12.6%降至12.6%，降至12.4%至12.5%。预计资本支出为20亿美元。
• 短评：DIY需求不旺导致第二季度可比销售额下降5.1%，降幅超出预期。尽管成本控制措施提振了盈利，但下半年销售下滑可能带来挑战。该公司下调了年度利润和销售预期，反映了家得宝对高利率和房屋销售低迷导致的家居装修需求疲软的担忧。该公司首席执行官指出，由于抵押贷款利率高企，搬家的人越来越少，这影响了装修项目。劳氏预计今年可比销售额将下降3.5%至4%，调整后每股收益为11.7至11.9美元，低于此前预测的12.0至12.3美元。该公司还将全年销售预期从840亿美元至850亿美元上调至827亿美元至832亿美元。尽管预期会降息，但今年下半年的前景仍然充满挑战。要推动家居装修活动的显著增长，并提振劳氏的销售，大幅降息可能是必要的。24年第三季度建议交易区间：230至260美元。中性前景。

Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $400.7M, +25.9% YoY, beat estimates by $32.71M
• 2Q24 GAAP EPADS: $1.11, beat estimates by $0.12
• FY24 Guidance: Raise guidance for the second time, currently expects a total of 550,000 new paying clients for the full year.
• Comment: In the second quarter, Futu Holdings reported significant growth with a 29% YoY increase in paying clients to over 2 million and an 8% YoY rise in net income to HK$1.2bn. The company raised its full-year guidance for new paying clients to 550,000 after it added 155,000 new paying clients in Q2, representing a 167.8% YoY increase. Despite a slight decline in operating margin due to increased R&D and marketing expenses, Futu saw strong performance across key metrics, including a 24% YoY increase in total client assets to HK$579bn and a 69% YoY jump in trading volume to HK$1.62tn, driven by high activity in AI and meme stocks. Expansion into new markets like Hong Kong and Singapore, where cryptocurrency trading was launched, further contributed to its growth. Both countries recorded double-digit sequential growth in new paying clients. Futu is optimistic about client growth in Malaysia and anticipates steady growth in new paying customers from Malaysia in the current quarter. Looking ahead, with client numbers growing, we expect continued strong revenue growth and profitability. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $55 to $75. Positive Outlook.

富途控股 (FUTU)

• 24财年第二季营收：4.007亿美元，同比增幅25.9%，超预期3,271万美元
• 24财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：1.11美元，超预期0.12美元
• 24财年指引：第二次提高指引，目前预计全年总共有55万新的付费客户。
• 短评：在第二季度，富图控股报告了显著的增长，付费客户同比增长29%，达到200多万，净利润同比增长8%，达到12亿港元。该公司在第二季度增加了15.5万名新付费客户，同比增长167.8%，之后将其全年新付费客户预期上调至55万名。尽管由于研发和营销费用的增加，营业利润率略有下降，但富途在关键指标上表现强劲，包括客户总资产同比增长24%至5,790亿港元，交易量同比增长69%至1.62万亿港元，这得益于人工智能和表情包股票的高活跃度。向香港和新加坡等推出加密货币交易的新市场扩张，进一步推动了其增长。这两个国家的新付费客户都实现了两位数的连续增长。富途对马来西亚的客户增长持乐观态度，预计本季度来自马来西亚的新付费客户将稳步增长。展望未来，随着客户数量的增长，我们预计收入和盈利能力将持续强劲增长。24年第三季度建议交易区间：55至75美元。积极前景。

Xpeng Inc (XPEV)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $1.12B, +60.2% YoY, miss estimates by $150M
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPADS: -$0.18, in line with estimates
• 3Q24 Guidance: Expect deliveries of vehicles to be between 41,000 and 45,000, representing a 2.5% to 12.5% YoY increase. Total revenue to be between RMB9.1bn and RMB9.8bn, representing an approximate 6.7% to 14.9% YoY increase.
• Comment: XPeng reported lower-than-expected second quarter sales of US$1.12bn and earnings in-line with estimates. The company showed an improvement in gross margin and announced plans to refresh its EV lineup with new models over the next three years. Despite this, XPeng forecasted third-quarter revenue to be between RMB9.1bn and RMB9.8bn below analysts’ estimates of RMB10.4bn, impacted by strong competition and declining demand for its older electric vehicle models. XPeng also faces challenges from potential European tariffs on Chinese-made EVs, prompting considerations for a local manufacturing plant. For the current quarter, XPeng expects vehicle deliveries between 41,000 and 45,000 units, slightly higher than the same period last year. Looking ahead, with the threat of European tariffs and declining demand for its EV models, XPeng may encounter a challenging third quarter. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $6 to $9. Negative Outlook.

小鹏汽车 (XPEV)

• 24财年第二季营收：11.2亿美元，同比增幅60.2%，逊预期1.5亿美元
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.18美元，符合预期
• 24财年第三季指引：预计新车交付量将在4.1万至4.5万辆之间，同比增长2.5%至12.5%。总收入预计在91亿元至98亿元之间，同比增长约6.7%至14.9%。
• 短评：小鹏公布第二季度销售额低于预期11.2亿美元，收益与预期相符。该公司显示毛利率有所改善，并宣布计划在未来三年内推出新车型，更新其电动汽车阵容。尽管如此，小鹏预计第三季度收入将在91亿至98亿元人民币之间，低于分析师预期的104亿元人民币，受竞争激烈和老款电动汽车需求下降的影响。小鹏还面临着欧洲可能对中国制造的电动汽车征收关税的挑战，促使公司考虑在当地建厂。对于当前季度，小鹏预计汽车交付量将在4.1万至4.5万辆之间，略高于去年同期。展望未来，由于欧洲关税的威胁和对其电动汽车车型需求的下降，小鹏可能会遇到一个具有挑战性的第三季度。24年第三季度建议交易区间：6至9美元。负面前景。