Technical Analysis – 19 July 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Monster Beverage Corp. (MNST US)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. 5dEMA recently crossed the 20dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 50.8, Target 54.8, Stop 48.8

Campbell Soup Co. (CPB US)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high.
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 47.7, Target 51.7, Stop 45.7

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Centurion Corp. (CENT SP)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with more volume.
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 0.630, Target 0.670, Stop 0.610

Bumitama Agri Ltd. (BAL SP)

• Shares closed at a high since Apr 24 with more volume.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 0.730, Target 0.780, Stop 0.705

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HSBC Holdings PLC (5 HK)

• Shares closed above the 20dEMA with rising volume.
• RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
• Long – Entry 67.5, Target 70.7, Stop 65.9

Standard Chartered PLC (2888 HK)

• Shares closed at a one-month high above the 5dEMA.
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
• Long – Entry 74, Target 78, Stop 72

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ASML Holding NV (ASML)

• 2Q24 Revenue: €6.2B, -10.1% YoY, beat estimates by €16M
• 2Q24 GAAP EPS: €4.01
• 3Q24 Guidance: Expect total net sales between €6.7B and €7.3B and a gross margin between 50% and 51%. R&D costs of around €1,100M and SG&A costs of around €295M. FY24 Guidance: Reiterate outlook FY24 total net sales to be similar to FY23 whereby the company generated €27.56B.
• Comment: For the second quarter, ASML delivered earnings that exceeded expectations with net income at €1.6bn and revenue at €6.2bn. However, its shares fell amid concerns that US government pressure could lead to tighter export restrictions to China, overshadowing ASML’s good results. Despite strong AI-related bookings and solid sales in China, investor worries were fuelled by a Bloomberg report suggesting the US might impose unilateral export restrictions. ASML’s CEO noted that 2024 is seen as a “transition year” with a stronger outlook for 2025. China accounted for significant sales, but potential restrictions could impact future performance. New bookings for the quarter rose to €5.6bn, driven by high demand for advanced EUV products. ASML’s share price might be under pressure due to concerns about the impact of the presidential election’s outcome, but its strong sales and margin expectations for the current quarter remains promising. 3Q24 recommended trading range: €830 to €1000. Neutral Outlook.

阿斯麦 (ASML)

• 24财年第二季营收：62亿欧元，同比跌幅10.1%，超预期1,600万欧元
• 24财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：4.01欧元
• 24财年第三季指引：预计总净销售额在67亿欧元至73亿欧元之间，毛利率在50%至51%之间。研发成本约为1.1亿欧元，销售及行政成本约为2.95亿欧元。24财年指引：重申展望24财年总净销售额与23财年相似，公司在23财年产生275.6亿欧元。
• 短评：第二季度，阿斯麦实现了超出预期的盈利，净利润为16亿欧元，营收为62亿欧元。然而，由于担心美国政府的压力可能导致对中国的出口限制收紧，阿斯麦股价下跌，给其良好业绩蒙上了阴影。尽管与人工智能相关的预订量强劲，在中国的销售也很稳健，但彭博社一份暗示美国可能实施单边出口限制的报告加剧了投资者的担忧。阿斯麦首席执行官指出，2024年被视为“过渡年”，2025年的前景更为强劲。中国市场占了很大的销售额，但潜在的限制可能会影响未来的业绩。受先进EUV产品需求旺盛的推动，本季度的新订单增至56亿欧元。尽管销售和利润率表现强劲，但由于投资者担心总统选举结果的影响，阿斯麦的股价在本季度可能继续受到压制。24年第三季度建议交易区间：830至1000美元。中性前景。

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $22.4B, +4.3% YoY, beat estimates by $60M
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.82, beat estimates by $0.12
• FY24 Guidance: Expect adjusted operational sales to rise 5.5% to 6.0% from the previous year. Operational sales and estimated reported sales to be between $89.2B to $89.6B and $88.0B to $88.4B respectively. Adjusted operational EPS to be $10 to $10.10 and adjusted EPS to be between $9.97 and $10.07.
• Comment: Johnson & Johnson exceeded second-quarter profit and revenue estimates, driven by strong sales of its drugs Darzalex and Stelara. Despite this, concerns over future revenue loomed as Stelara faces competition from biosimilars set to launch in the US by 2025. Despite the anticipated competition, the company expects to secure favourable insurance coverage for Stelara soon. JNJ’s total revenue reached US$22.4bn, and it raised its full-year sales forecast slightly to US$89.2bn to US$89.6bn but lowered its per-share forecast to range between US$10 to US$10.10 from US$10.60 to US$10.75 due to acquisition costs. While its pharmaceutical segment showed robust performance, its medical technology division underperformed, missing analysts’ expectations. The company also faces ongoing legal challenges related to its talc products, with a crucial decision expected soon. Due to competition, supply constraints, and reduced demand for bariatric procedures, we anticipate that JNJ’s medical technology business will continue to be affected by declining sales of surgical devices. Despite the recent acquisition of new medical device companies such as Shockwave, the business is expected to face challenges. Furthermore, competition from the European market is likely to impact the sales of JNJ’s Stelara drug and could result in a slowdown in its pharmaceutical business in the current quarter. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $145 to $165. Neutral Outlook.

强生 (JNJ)

• 24财年第二季营收：224亿美元，同比增幅4.3%，超预期6,000万
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.82美元，超预期0.12美元
• 24财年指引：预计调整后的营业销售额将较上年增长5.5%至6.0%。运营销售额和预计报告销售额分别在892亿美元至896亿美元和880亿美元至884亿美元之间。调整后的每股收益为10美元至10.10美元，调整后的每股收益为9.97美元至10.07美元。
• 短评：受Darzalex和Stelara两种药物强劲销售的推动，强生公司第二季度利润和收入超出预期。尽管如此，随着Stelara面临将于2025年在美国推出的生物仿制药的竞争，对未来收入的担忧迫在眉睫。尽管预计会有竞争，但该公司预计很快就会为Stelara获得有利的保险覆盖。强生的总收入达到224亿美元，并将全年销售额预测小幅上调至892亿美元至896亿美元，但由于收购成本的原因，将每股预期从10.60美元至10.75美元下调至10美元至10.10美元。尽管其制药部门表现强劲，但其医疗技术部门表现不佳，低于分析师的预期。该公司还面临着与其滑石粉产品相关的持续法律挑战，预计很快就会做出关键决定。由于竞争、供应限制和减肥手术需求减少，我们预计强生的医疗技术业务将继续受到手术设备销售下降的影响。尽管最近收购了Shockwave等新的医疗器械公司，但预计该业务将面临挑战。此外，来自欧洲市场的竞争可能会影响强生公司的Stelara药物的销售，并可能导致其制药业务在本季度放缓。24年第三季度建议交易区间：145至165美元。中性前景。

United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $14.99B, +5.7% YoY, beat estimates by $20M
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $4.14, beat estimates by $0.21
• 3Q24 Guidance: Expect 3Q EPS to be in the range of $2.75 to $3.25, compared to a consensus of $3.38. FY24 Guidance: Expect FY24 EPS to be in the range of $9.00 to $11.00, compared to a consensus of $9.76.
• Comment: United Airlines reported strong results but issued weaker-than-expected guidance for the third quarter of 2024. The company’s positive operating metrics demonstrate its ability to operate efficiently in a challenging pricing environment affecting the airline industry. Additionally, United Airlines emphasized the benefits of revenue diversity from its premium customers, which has bolstered its margins. The company has also strategically managed industry-wide challenges, such as reducing planned domestic capacity over the last quarter. However, the weak guidance for 3Q24 and the announcement of further capacity cuts indicate that U.S. carriers are struggling to boost earnings despite record travel demand. Excess market capacity continues to depress airfares, making it difficult for airlines to increase their earnings. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $42 to $52. Neutral Outlook.

联合航空 (UAL)

• 24财年第二季营收：149.9亿美元，同比增幅5.7%，超预期2,000万美元
• 24财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：4.14美元，超预期0.21美元
• 24财年第三季指引：预计第三季度每股收益将在2.75美元至3.25美元之间，而市场普遍预期为3.38美元。24财年指引: 预计24财年每股收益在9.00美元至11.00美元之间，而市场普遍预期为9.76美元。
• 短评：美国联合航空公司公布了强劲的业绩，但发布了低于预期的2024年第三季度指引。该公司积极的运营指标证明了其在影响航空业的具有挑战性的价格环境中有效运营的能力。此外，美联航还强调了来自高端客户的收入多样性的好处，这提高了其利润率。该公司还战略性地应对了全行业的挑战，比如上个季度削减了计划中的国内产能。然而，疲弱的第三季度业绩指引和进一步削减运力的声明表明，尽管旅行需求创纪录，但美国航空公司仍在努力提高收益。市场运力过剩继续压低机票价格，使航空公司难以增加收益。24年第三季度建议交易区间：42至52美元。中性前景。

Alcoa Corp (AA)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $2.91B, +8.6% YoY, miss estimates by $30M
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.16, beat estimates by $0.08
• 3Q24 Guidance: Within 2024 Alumina Segment adjusted EBITDA, the company expects sequential unfavourable impacts of $10mn related to bauxite grade in Australia; favourable raw material prices of $10mn; Net income attributable to NCI expected to be approximately $20mn. FY24 Guidance: Expects 2024 total Alumina segment production and shipments to remain unchanged from the prior projection, ranging between 9.8 and 10.0mn metric tons, and between 12.7 and 12.9mn metric tons, respectively; Expects 2024 Aluminium segment production and shipments to remain unchanged from prior projection, ranging between 2.2 and 2.3mn metric tons, and between 2.5 and 2.6mn metric tons respectively.
• Comment: The company reported better-than-expected earnings and returned to profitability in the 2Q24, driven by higher prices. The acquisition of Alumina Limited, announced earlier this year, is expected to be finalized in early August. This acquisition will enable Alcoa to reduce operating costs by gaining greater control over its raw materials and streamlining its operations. However, aluminum prices are under downward pressure this quarter due to factors such as tariffs and oversupply, which could present challenges to the company’s revenue and earnings in 3Q24. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $32 to $45. Neutral Outlook.

美国铝业 (AA)

• 24财年第二季营收：29.1亿美元，同比增幅8.6%，逊预期3,000万美元
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.16美元，超预期0.08美元
• 24财年第三季指引：在2024年氧化铝部门调整后的EBITDA中，公司预计与澳大利亚铝土矿品位相关的连续不利影响为1000万美元；原材料优惠价格1000万美元；归属于少数股东的净收入预计约为2000万美元。24财年指引：预计2024年氧化铝部门总产量和出货量将保持不变，分别在980万至1000万吨之间，以及1270万至1290万吨之间；预计2024年铝型材的产量和出货量将保持不变，分别在220万至230万吨和250万至260万吨之间。
• 短评：在价格上涨的推动下，该公司公布了好于预期的收益，并在24年第二季度恢复盈利。今年早些时候宣布的对氧化铝有限公司的收购，预计将于8月初完成。此次收购将使美铝能够通过更好地控制其原材料和简化其运营来降低运营成本。然而，由于关税和供应过剩等因素，铝价格本季度面临下行压力，这可能对该公司第三季度的收入和收益构成挑战。24年第三季度建议交易区间：32至45美元。中性前景。