8 April 2025: Futures Product Ideas
KGI Weekly Futures Update
SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures
Net Long/Short and Price Comparison
We highlight the key price levels that each participant switches their positions between net long and net short based on 2024 data.
2024 | Financial Institution (FI) | Manage Money (MM) | Physicals | Others |
Net Long | Below US$118/mt | Above US$118/mt | Below US$100/mt | NA |
Net Short | Above US$118/mt | Below US$115/mt | Above US$100/mt | NA |
Net-position WoW Change | Remarks | |
FI | +8.29 | Increase for 5 consecutive weeks. |
MM | +22.0 | Increase for a week after 4 consecutive weeks of decline. |
Physicals | -26.4 | Decline for a week, largest decline since January 2025. |
Others | -3.83 | Decline for 2 consecutive weeks |
Figure 1: Net-positions by participant segment and price comparison
Source: SGX, KGI Research
Long/Short Traders Snapshot
- Managed Money. The number of MM with long positions rebounded to 349 after a sharper drop a week ago. Accordingly, the number of MM with short positions retreated to 242 after reaching a high since mid-January a week ago. Seasonally, More MMs are prone to long in 1HQ4 and 2HQ2, and there are more MMs with short positions in 1HQ2 and 1HQ3.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 423 | 427 | 393 | 248 |
Low | 176 | 131 | 154 | 83 |
Figure 2: Number of position holders iron ore futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Physicals. The number of physicals with long positions rebounded slightly to 125 after a sharper decline a week ago. Accordingly, the number of physicals with short positions increased for 3 weeks to 146, after a decline 3 weeks ago. Seasonally, more physicals are prone to being long in 1Q, and there are more physicals with short positions in Q4.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 135 | 145 | 111 | 147 |
Low | 77 | 107 | 68 | 96 |
Figure 3: Number of position holders iron ore futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Others. The number of others with long positions rebounded to 93 after 4 consecutive weeks of decline, while the number of others with short positions rose for 3 consecutive weeks to 108, representing a high since May 2024.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 131 | 131 | 134 | 152 |
Low | 68 | 83 | 103 | 101 |
Figure 4: Number of position holders iron ore futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
SGX Baltic Panamax Time Charter Average Futures
We highlight the key price levels that each participants switches their positions between net long and net short based on 2024 data.
2024 | Financial Institution (FI) | Manage Money (MM) | Physicals | Others |
Net Long | NA | Above US$9,000/t | Below US$8,500/t | NA |
Net Short | NA | Below US$9,000/t | Above US$9,500/t | NA |
Net-position WoW Change | Remarks | |
FI | +0.03 | Increase for 2 consecutive weeks. |
MM | -1.28 | Decline for a week after 7 consecutive weeks of increase. |
Physicals | +1.15 | Increase for a week after 7 consecutive weeks of decline. |
Others | +0.10 | Increase for a week |
Figure 5: Net-positions by participant segment and price comparison
Source: SGX, KGI Research
Long/Short Traders Snapshot
- Managed Money. The number of MM with long positions retreated marginally to 26 after reaching a high since September 2024 a week ago. On the other hand, the number of MM with short positions increased marginally to 45 after a decline a week ago. Seasonally, More MM are prone to long in 1H, and there are more MM with short positions in 2H.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 47 | 51 | 29 | 33 |
Low | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
Figure 6: Number of position holders freight futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Physicals. The number of physicals with long positions rebounded to 165 after last week’s decline, representing a high since November 2024. Accordingly, the number of physicals with short positions increased marginally to 92 after remaining stable a week ago. The number of physicals has been on a general upward trend since 2Q, while physicals with short positions generally saw a downtrend since 2Q.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 171 | 114 | 120 | 123 |
Low | 98 | 78 | 78 | 62 |
Figure 7: Number of position holders freight futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Others. The number of others with long positions remained stable at 22, stable at current levels since the start of 2025.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 43 | 39 | 53 | 45 |
Low | 20 | 20 | 31 | 25 |
Figure 8: Number of position holders freight futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
SGX SICOM Rubber Futures – TSR20
Net Long/Short and Price Comparison
We highlight the key price levels that each participants switches their positions between net long and net short based on 2024 data.
2024 | Financial Institution (FI) | Manage Money (MM) | Physicals | Others |
Net Long | Below US$1.90/kg | NA | NA | NA |
Net Short | Above US$1.60/kg | NA | NA | NA |
Net-position WoW Change | Remarks | |
FI | +0.73 | Increase for a week. |
MM | +0.07 | Increase for a week after 3 consecutive weeks of decline. |
Physicals | -0.93 | Decline for a week after 3 consecutive weeks of increase. |
Others | +0.13 | Increase for 2 consecutive weeks. |
Figure 9: Net-positions by participant segment and price comparison
Source: SGX, KGI Research
Long/Short Traders Snapshot
- Managed Money. The number of MM with long positions declined for 3 weeks to 87, representing a low since January 2025. Accordingly, the number of MM with short positions increased for 4 consecutive weeks to 50, representing a high since January 2025.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 114 | 56 | 89 | 80 |
Low | 63 | 21 | 25 | 27 |
Figure 10: Number of position holders rubber futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Physicals. The number of physicals with long positions retreated for 2 weeks to 37 after reaching a high in over two years 2 weeks ago. Accordingly, the number of physicals with short positions increased marginally for 2 weeks to 39, but still remained stable at current levels since the end of 2024. Seasonally, more physicals are prone to long in early Q3, and there are more physicals with short positions in Q4.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 39 | 48 | 43 | 39 |
Low | 26 | 28 | 24 | 24 |
Figure 11: Number of position holders rubber futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Others. The number of long holders retreated marginally to 53 after a marginal decline a week ago. On the other hand, the number of short holders remained stable for 2 weeks at 36.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 77 | 48 | 82 | 51 |
Low | 48 | 26 | 51 | 28 |
Figure 12: Number of position holders rubber futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
Participant Category | Description |
Financial Institutions | An entity, such as a broker trading desk, bank trading desk or swap dealer, that uses the futures markets to manage or hedge the risk. |
Managed Money | An entity that is engaged in organized futures trading on behalf of funds or other special investment purpose vehicles such as Pension Funds, Asset Managers, Hedge Funds, Proprietary Trading Groups, Family Offices, etc. |
Physicals | An entity that predominantly engages in the physical markets and uses the futures markets to manage or hedge risks associated with the conduct of those activities. Such activities could include the production, processing, trading, packing or handling of a physical commodity, or the provision of transportation, warehousing or distribution services. |
Others | Every other trader that is not placed into one of the other three categories. E.g., Broker Agency, Bank Agency, Inter-Dealer Brokers, etc. |
凯基证券期货周报 – 4 月 08 日
SGX TSI 铁矿石 CFR 中国（62% 铁粉）指数期货
净多头/空头和价格比较
我们根据2024年数据，突出了每个参与者在净多头和净空头之间切换仓位的关键价格水平。
2024 | 金融机构 (FI) | 管理资金 (MM) | 实物交割(Physicals) | 其他 (Others) |
净多头 | 低于 118 美元/吨 | 118 美元/吨以上 | 低于 100 美元/吨 | 无 |
净空头 | 118 美元/吨以上 | 低于 115 美元/吨 | 100 美元/吨以上 | 无 |
净仓位按周变化 | 备注 | |
金融机构 | +8.29 | 连续五周增加 |
管理资金 | +22.0 | 连续四周下跌后反弹 |
实物交割 | -26.4 | 上周下跌，自2025年一月以来最大下跌 |
其他 | -3.83 | 在连续两周下跌 |
图 1：按参与者细分的净持仓和价格比较
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
多头/空头交易简报
- 管理资金。持有多头头寸的管理资金数目在一周前大幅下滑后反弹至349家。与此同时，持有空头头寸的管理资金数目则在一周前达到自1月中旬以来的高点后回落至242家。季节性来看，更多管理资金倾向于在第四季上半旬和第二季下半旬持有多头，而在第二季上半旬和第三季上半旬持有空头的管理资金较多。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 423 | 427 | 393 | 248 |
最低值 | 176 | 131 | 154 | 83 |
图 2：铁矿石期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
- 实物交割。持有多头头寸的实物交割交易者数量在一周前大幅下滑后小幅回升至125家。与此同时，持有空头头寸的实物交割交易者数量在三周前下滑后已连续三周增长，最新升至146家。季节性来看，更多实物交割交易者倾向于在第一季度持有多头，而在第四季度持有空头的实物交易较多。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 135 | 145 | 111 | 147 |
最低值 | 77 | 107 | 68 | 96 |
图 3：铁矿石期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
- 其他。 持有多头头寸的其他类别投资者数量在连续四周下滑后回升至93家；与此同时，持有空头头寸的投资者数量已连续三周上升，最新增至108家，创下自2024年5月以来的新高。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 131 | 131 | 134 | 152 |
最低值 | 68 | 83 | 103 | 101 |
图 4：铁矿石期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
SGX 波罗的海巴拿马型船平均期租期货
我们根据2024年数据，突出了每个参与者在净多头和净空头之间切换仓位的关键价格水平。
2024 | 金融机构 (FI) | 管理资金 (MM) | 实物交割(Physicals) | 其他 (Others) |
净多头 | 无 | 9,000 美元/吨以上 | 低于 8,500 美元/吨 | 无 |
净空头 | 无 | 低于 9,000 美元/吨 | 9,500 美元/吨以上 | 无 |
净仓位按周变化 | 备注 | |
金融机构 | +0.03 | 连续两周上升 |
管理资金 | -1.28 | 连续七周增加后下跌 |
实物交割 | +1.15 | 连续七周下降后上升 |
其他 | +0.10 | 上周上升 |
图 5：按参与者类别划分的净仓位及价格比较
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
多头/空头交易者快照
- 管理资金。持有多头头寸的做管理资金交易者数量在一周前触及自2024年9月以来高点后小幅回落至26家。另一方面，持有空头头寸的管理资金交易者数量在一周前下滑后小幅回升至45家。季节性来看，更多管理资金倾向于在上半年持有多头，而在下半年持有空头的管理资金较多。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 47 | 51 | 29 | 33 |
最低值 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
图 6： 运费期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
- 实物交割。 持有多头头寸的实物交割交易者量在上周下滑后回升至165家，创下自2024年11月以来的新高。与此同时，持有空头头寸的实物交割交易者数量在前一周保持稳定后小幅上升至92家。自去年第二季度以来，实物交割交易者数量总体呈上升趋势，而持有空头头寸的实物交割交易者数量自去年第二季度以来总体呈下降趋势。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 171 | 114 | 120 | 123 |
最低值 | 98 | 78 | 78 | 62 |
图 7： 运费期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
- 其他。持有多头头寸的其他类别投资者数量维持在22家，自2025年初以来一直稳定在该水平。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 43 | 39 | 53 | 45 |
最低值 | 20 | 20 | 31 | 25 |
图 8： 运费期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
SGX SICOM 橡胶期货 – TSR20
净多头/空头及价格比较
我们根据2024年数据，突出了每个参与者在净多头和净空头之间切换仓位的关键价格水平。
2024 | 金融机构 (FI) | 管理资金 (MM) | 实物交割(Physicals) | 其他 (Others) |
净多头 | 低于 1.90 美元/公斤 | 无 | 无 | 无 |
净空头 | 1.60 美元/公斤以上 | 无 | 无 | 无 |
净仓位按周变化 | 备注 | |
金融机构 | +0.73 | 上周上升 |
管理资金 | +0.07 | 连续三周下跌后上升 |
实物交割 | -0.93 | 连续三周上升后下跌 |
其他 | +0.13 | 连续两周上升 |
图 9：按参与者类别划分的净仓位及价格比较
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
多头/空头交易者快照
- 管理资金。持有多头头寸的做管理资金交易者数量已连续三周下滑，降至87家，创下自2025年1月以来的新低。与此同时，持有空头头寸的做管理资金交易者数量已连续四周上升，增至50家，创下自2025年1月以来的新高。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 114 | 56 | 89 | 80 |
最低值 | 63 | 21 | 25 | 27 |
图 10：橡胶期货持仓者数量
资料来源：新交所、凯基研究
- 实物交割。持有多头头寸的实物交割交易者数量在两周前创下两年多以来新高后，已连续两周回落至37家。与此同时，持有空头头寸的实物交割交易者数量连续两周小幅上升至39家，但自2024年底以来整体仍维持在当前水平。从季节性来看，实物交割交易者在第三季度初更倾向于持有多头头寸，而在第四季度则更多持有空头头寸。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 39 | 48 | 43 | 39 |
最低值 | 26 | 28 | 24 | 24 |
图11：橡胶期货持仓者数量
资料来源：新交所、凯基研究
- 其他。 持有多头头寸的投资者数量在一周前小幅下滑后，稍微回落至53家。另一方面，持有空头头寸的投资者数量已连续两周稳定在36家。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 77 | 48 | 82 | 51 |
最低值 | 48 | 26 | 51 | 28 |
图 12：持仓橡胶期货数量
资料来源：新交所、凯基研究
参与者类别 | 描述 |
金融机构 | 使用期货市场管理或对冲风险的实体，如经纪商交易台、银行交易台或互换交易商。 |
管理资金 | 代表基金或其他特殊投资目的工具（如养老基金、资产管理公司、对冲基金、自营交易集团、家族办公室等）从事有组织的期货交易的实体。 |
实物交割 | 主要从事实物市场并使用期货市场管理或对冲与这些活动相关风险的实体。这些活动可能包括生产、加工、贸易、包装或处理实物商品，或提供运输、仓储或分销服务。 |
其他 | 未归类到上述三类中的其他交易者，例如经纪代理、银行代理、交易商间经纪商等。 |
