22 April 2025: Futures Product Ideas
KGI Weekly Futures Update
SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures
Net Long/Short and Price Comparison
We highlight the key price levels that each participant switches their positions between net long and net short based on 2024 data.
2024 | Financial Institution (FI) | Manage Money (MM) | Physicals | Others |
Net Long | Below US$118/mt | Above US$118/mt | Below US$100/mt | NA |
Net Short | Above US$118/mt | Below US$115/mt | Above US$100/mt | NA |
Net-position WoW Change | Remarks | |
FI | +28.1 | Increase for a week after a huge decline a week ago. |
MM | -121.0 | Decline for a week after two consecutive weeks of increase. Represents the largest decline in over two years. |
Physicals | +80.6 | Increase for two consecutive weeks, the largest increase since June 2024. |
Others | +12.3 | Increase for a week after declining for three consecutive weeks |
Figure 1: Net-positions by participant segment and price comparison
Source: SGX, KGI Research
Long/Short Traders Snapshot
- Managed Money. The number of MM with long positions fell to 263 after rising for 2 consecutive weeks, representing a low since January 2025. Accordingly, the number of MM with short positions rose to 316 after rising for two consecutive weeks, representing a high since January 2025. Seasonally, more MMs are prone to long in 1HQ4 and 2HQ2, and there are more MMs with short positions in 1HQ2 and 1HQ3.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 423 | 427 | 393 | 248 |
Low | 176 | 131 | 154 | 83 |
Figure 2: Number of position holders iron ore futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Physicals. The number of physicals with long positions rose to 121, rebounding after reaching a low since May 2024 a week ago. Accordingly, the number of physicals with short positions also rose to 137, after falling to a low since January 2025 a week ago. Seasonally, more physicals are prone to being long in 1Q, and there are more physicals with short positions in Q4.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 135 | 145 | 111 | 147 |
Low | 77 | 107 | 68 | 96 |
Figure 3: Number of position holders iron ore futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Others. The number of others with long positions rebounded from its downtrend, rising for a week to 87, while the number of others with short positions also rose to 106, after retreating a week ago.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 131 | 131 | 134 | 152 |
Low | 68 | 83 | 103 | 101 |
Figure 4: Number of position holders iron ore futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
SGX Baltic Panamax Time Charter Average Futures
We highlight the key price levels that each participants switches their positions between net long and net short based on 2024 data.
2024 | Financial Institution (FI) | Manage Money (MM) | Physicals | Others |
Net Long | NA | Above US$9,000/t | Below US$8,500/t | NA |
Net Short | NA | Below US$9,000/t | Above US$9,500/t | NA |
Net-position WoW Change | Remarks | |
FI | +0.02 | Increase for four consecutive weeks |
MM | -1.44 | Decline for three consecutive weeks after seven consecutive weeks of increase |
Physicals | +1.71 | Increase for three weeks after seven consecutive weeks of decline |
Others | -0.30 | Decline for two consecutive weeks |
Figure 5: Net-positions by participant segment and price comparison
Source: SGX, KGI Research
Long/Short Traders Snapshot
- Managed Money. The number of MM with long positions declined for 3 straight weeks to 20, reaching a low since October 2024. On the other hand, the number of MM with short positions increased to 48, representing a high since February. Seasonally, More MM are prone to long in 1H, and there are more MM with short positions in 2H.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 47 | 51 | 29 | 33 |
Low | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
Figure 6: Number of position holders freight futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Physicals. The number of physicals with long positions retreated further for two weeks to 148, representing a low since early January 2025. Accordingly, the number of physicals with short positions fell further for two weeks to 79, representing a low since the end of 2024. The number of physicals has been on a general upward trend since 2Q, while physicals with short positions generally saw a downtrend since 2Q.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 171 | 114 | 120 | 123 |
Low | 98 | 78 | 78 | 62 |
Figure 7: Number of position holders freight futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Others. The number of others with long positions remained stable at 22, stable at current levels since the start of 2025.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 43 | 39 | 53 | 45 |
Low | 20 | 20 | 31 | 25 |
Figure 8: Number of position holders freight futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
SGX SICOM Rubber Futures – TSR20
Net Long/Short and Price Comparison
We highlight the key price levels that each participants switches their positions between net long and net short based on 2024 data.
2024 | Financial Institution (FI) | Manage Money (MM) | Physicals | Others |
Net Long | Below US$1.90/kg | NA | NA | NA |
Net Short | Above US$1.60/kg | NA | NA | NA |
Net-position WoW Change | Remarks | |
FI | +1.96 | Increase for three consecutive weeks, the largest increase since the start of the year |
MM | -9.33 | Decline for two consecutive weeks, the largest decline YTD |
Physicals | +8.24 | Increase for two consecutive weeks |
Others | -0.87 | Decline for two consecutive weeks |
Figure 9: Net-positions by participant segment and price comparison
Source: SGX, KGI Research
Long/Short Traders Snapshot
- Managed Money. The number of MM with long positions declined for five weeks to 55, representing a low in over two years. Accordingly, the number of MM with short positions increased for six consecutive weeks to 70, representing a high in over two years.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 114 | 56 | 89 | 80 |
Low | 63 | 21 | 25 | 27 |
Figure 10: Number of position holders rubber futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Physicals. The number of physicals with long positions remained stable at 41 after rebounding a week ago, and represents a high since July 2023. Accordingly, the number of physicals with short positions remained stable at 34 after retreating a week ago, and represents a low since August 2024. Seasonally, more physicals are prone to long in early Q3, and there are more physicals with short positions in Q4.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 39 | 48 | 43 | 39 |
Low | 26 | 28 | 24 | 24 |
Figure 11: Number of position holders rubber futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Others. The number of long holders rebounded to 56 after retreating for two weeks, representing a five-week high. On the other hand, the number of short holders remained stable at 39 after increasing a week ago, representing an eight-week high.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 77 | 48 | 82 | 51 |
Low | 48 | 26 | 51 | 28 |
Figure 12: Number of position holders rubber futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
Participant Category | Description |
Financial Institutions | An entity, such as a broker trading desk, bank trading desk or swap dealer, that uses the futures markets to manage or hedge the risk. |
Managed Money | An entity that is engaged in organized futures trading on behalf of funds or other special investment purpose vehicles such as Pension Funds, Asset Managers, Hedge Funds, Proprietary Trading Groups, Family Offices, etc. |
Physicals | An entity that predominantly engages in the physical markets and uses the futures markets to manage or hedge risks associated with the conduct of those activities. Such activities could include the production, processing, trading, packing or handling of a physical commodity, or the provision of transportation, warehousing or distribution services. |
Others | Every other trader that is not placed into one of the other three categories. E.g., Broker Agency, Bank Agency, Inter-Dealer Brokers, etc. |
凯基证券期货周报 – 4 月 22 日
SGX TSI 铁矿石 CFR 中国（62% 铁粉）指数期货
净多头/空头和价格比较
我们根据2024年数据，突出了每个参与者在净多头和净空头之间切换仓位的关键价格水平。
2024 | 金融机构 (FI) | 管理资金 (MM) | 实物交割(Physicals) | 其他 (Others) |
净多头 | 低于 118 美元/吨 | 118 美元/吨以上 | 低于 100 美元/吨 | 无 |
净空头 | 118 美元/吨以上 | 低于 115 美元/吨 | 100 美元/吨以上 | 无 |
净仓位按周变化 | 备注 | |
金融机构 | +28.1 | 继一周前大幅下跌后，本周上涨。 |
管理资金 | -121.0 | 连续两周上涨后，连续一周下跌。这是两年来的最大降幅。 |
实物交割 | +80.6 | 连续两周上涨，是自2024年6月以来的最大涨幅。 |
其他 | +12.3 | 连续三周下降后本周上升 |
图 1：按参与者细分的净持仓和价格比较
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
多头/空头交易简报
- 管理资金。持有多头头寸的管理资金数目连续两周上升后下跌至263家，为2025年1月以来的最低水平。相应地，持有空头头寸的管理资金数目在连续两周上升至316家，为2025年1月以来的最高水平。季节性来看，更多管理资金倾向于在第四季上半旬和第二季下半旬持有多头，而在第二季上半旬和第三季上半旬持有空头的管理资金较多。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 423 | 427 | 393 | 248 |
最低值 | 176 | 131 | 154 | 83 |
图 2：铁矿石期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
- 实物交割。持有多头头寸的实物交割交易者数量上升至121家，在一周前触及2024年5月以来的低点后有所反弹。相应地，持有空头头寸的实物交割交易者数量从一周前的2025年1月以来的最低水平上升至137家。季节性来看，更多实物交割交易者倾向于在第一季度持有多头，而在第四季度持有空头的实物交割较多。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 135 | 145 | 111 | 147 |
最低值 | 77 | 107 | 68 | 96 |
图 3：铁矿石期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
- 其他。 持有多头头寸的其他类别投资者数量从下跌趋势中反弹，本周上升至87家；而持有空头头寸的投资者数量上升至106家，与一周前相比有所回落。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 131 | 131 | 134 | 152 |
最低值 | 68 | 83 | 103 | 101 |
图 4：铁矿石期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
SGX 波罗的海巴拿马型船平均期租期货
我们根据2024年数据，突出了每个参与者在净多头和净空头之间切换仓位的关键价格水平。
2024 | 金融机构 (FI) | 管理资金 (MM) | 实物交割(Physicals) | 其他 (Others) |
净多头 | 无 | 9,000 美元/吨以上 | 低于 8,500 美元/吨 | 无 |
净空头 | 无 | 低于 9,000 美元/吨 | 9,500 美元/吨以上 | 无 |
净仓位按周变化 | 备注 | |
金融机构 | +0.02 | 连续四周上升 |
管理资金 | -1.44 | 连续七周增加后连续三周下跌 |
实物交割 | +1.71 | 连续七周下降后连续三周上升 |
其他 | -0.30 | 连续两周下跌 |
图 5：按参与者类别划分的净仓位及价格比较
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
多头/空头交易者快照
- 管理资金。持有多头头寸的做管理资金交易者数量连续三周下降至20家，达到2024年10月以来最低水平。另一方面，持有空头头寸的管理资金交易者数量增加至48家，为二月份月以来最高水平。季节性来看，更多管理资金倾向于在上半年持有多头，而在下半年持有空头的管理资金较多。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 47 | 51 | 29 | 33 |
最低值 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
图 6： 运费期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
- 实物交割。 持有多头头寸的实物交割交易者量在两周内进一步回落至148家，为2025年一月初以来的低点。相应地，持有空头头寸的实物交割交易者数量连续两周下降至79家，为2024年底以来最低水平。自去年第二季度以来，实物交割交易者数量总体呈上升趋势，而持有空头头寸的实物交割交易者数量自去年第二季度以来总体呈下降趋势。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 171 | 114 | 120 | 123 |
最低值 | 98 | 78 | 78 | 62 |
图 7： 运费期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
- 其他。持有多头头寸的其他类别投资者数量维持在22家，自2025年初以来一直稳定在该水平。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 43 | 39 | 53 | 45 |
最低值 | 20 | 20 | 31 | 25 |
图 8： 运费期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
SGX SICOM 橡胶期货 – TSR20
净多头/空头及价格比较
我们根据2024年数据，突出了每个参与者在净多头和净空头之间切换仓位的关键价格水平。
2024 | 金融机构 (FI) | 管理资金 (MM) | 实物交割(Physicals) | 其他 (Others) |
净多头 | 低于 1.90 美元/公斤 | 无 | 无 | 无 |
净空头 | 1.60 美元/公斤以上 | 无 | 无 | 无 |
净仓位按周变化 | 备注 | |
金融机构 | +1.96 | 连续三周上涨，是年初以来的最大涨幅 |
管理资金 | -9.33 | 连续两周下跌，为年初至今最大跌幅 |
实物交割 | +8.24 | 续两周增加 |
其他 | -0.87 | 连续两周下跌 |
图 9：按参与者类别划分的净仓位及价格比较
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
多头/空头交易者快照
- 管理资金。持有多头头寸的管理资金交易者数量连续五周下跌至55家，为两年以来的新低。相应地，持有空头头寸的管理资金交易者数量已连续六周上升至70家，为两年以来的新高。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 114 | 56 | 89 | 80 |
最低值 | 63 | 21 | 25 | 27 |
图 10：橡胶期货持仓者数量
资料来源：新交所、凯基研究
- 实物交割。持有多头头寸的实物交割交易者数量在一周前反弹后维持在41家，创自2023年7月以来新高。相应地，持有空头头寸的实物交割交易者数量在一周前回落后维持在34家，为2024年8月以来新低。从季节性来看，实物交割交易者在第三季度初更倾向于持有多头头寸，而在第四季度则更多持有空头头寸。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 39 | 48 | 43 | 39 |
最低值 | 26 | 28 | 24 | 24 |
图11：橡胶期货持仓者数量
资料来源：新交所、凯基研究
- 其他。 持有多头头寸的投资者数量在连续两周下跌后反弹至56家，创五周新高。另一方面，持有空头头寸的投资者数量在一周前上升后维持在39家，创八周以来新高。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 77 | 48 | 82 | 51 |
最低值 | 48 | 26 | 51 | 28 |
图 12：持仓橡胶期货数量
资料来源：新交所、凯基研究
参与者类别 | 描述 |
金融机构 | 使用期货市场管理或对冲风险的实体，如经纪商交易台、银行交易台或互换交易商。 |
管理资金 | 代表基金或其他特殊投资目的工具（如养老基金、资产管理公司、对冲基金、自营交易集团、家族办公室等）从事有组织的期货交易的实体。 |
实物交割 | 主要从事实物市场并使用期货市场管理或对冲与这些活动相关风险的实体。这些活动可能包括生产、加工、贸易、包装或处理实物商品，或提供运输、仓储或分销服务。 |
其他 | 未归类到上述三类中的其他交易者，例如经纪代理、银行代理、交易商间经纪商等。 |
