KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 9 November 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

FedEx Corp (FDX US)

  • Shares closed above the 20dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
  • RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  • Long – Entry 245.0, Target 260.0, Stop 237.5

Coinbase Global Inc (COIN US)

  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA.
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 87.0, Target 96.0, Stop 82.5

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UOL Group Ltd (UOL SP)

  • Shares closed above the 20dEMA. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA. 
  • Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 6.10, Target 6.40 Stop 5.95

Riverstone Holdings Ltd (RSTON SP)

  • Shares closed above the 200dEMA. The 5dEMA crossed the 50dEMA. 
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.620 Target 0.645 Stop 0.607

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Kingdee International Software Group Co Ltd (268 HK)

  • Shares closed above the 200dEMA with rising volume. The 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 12.18, Target 13.60, Stop 11.47

WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc (2269 HK)

  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume. The 20dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  • Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 50, Target 54, Stop 48

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Roblox Corp (RBLX)

  • 3Q23 Revenue: $839.45M, +19.6% YoY, beat estimates by $35.78M
  • 3Q23 GAAP EPS: -$0.45, beat estimates by $0.06
  • 4Q23 Guidance: No guidance provided. Expects to report a net loss for the “foreseeable future”. However, it expects to keep generating free cash flow in 4Q23 and FY24, while capital spending will be lower in FY24 and FY25. Would begin providing guidance in FY24.
  • Comment: In the 3Q23 earnings call, Roblox highlighted its commitment to delivering growth, focusing on connecting people worldwide, across all ages, and expanding its vibrant economy. The company reported strong quarterly financials, with revenue and earnings beating expectations. Roblox’s average bookings per daily active user was $11.96, flat YoY. The company’s growth initiatives included significant international expansion with notable gains in Japan, Germany, Brazil, and India. It emphasised its vision of being a platform for users of all ages and showcased impressive growth in various age cohorts. Furthermore, it discussed innovation in avatars, voice, and AI integration, contributing to increased engagement. Cost management and the completion of a data center in Ashburn, Virginia, will impact operating costs and capital expenditures positively. Lastly, the company announced plans to provide financial guidance starting in 2024. While it did not provide formal guidance for 4Q23, it is comfortable with the consensus of revenue to be around $740mn-750mn, a YoY growth rate of approximately 28%. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $36 to $42. Neutral Outlook.  

Roblox (RBLX) 

  • 23财年第三季营收：8.3945亿美元, 同比增幅19.6%，超预期3,578万美元
  • 23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.45美元，超预期0.06美元  
  • 23财年第四季指引：不提供指导。公司预计在“可预见的未来”将出现净亏损。然而，该公司预计在23财年第四季度和24财年将继续产生自由现金流，而24财年和25财年的资本支出将减少。将于2024财年开始提供指引。
  • 短评：在23年第三季度的财报电话会议上，Roblox强调了其致力于实现增长的承诺，专注于连接全球各个年龄段的人们，并扩大其充满活力的经济。该公司公布了强劲的季度财务状况，收入和盈利超出预期。Roblox的日活跃用户平均预订额为11.96美元，与去年同期持平。该公司的增长计划包括显著的国际扩张，在日本、德国、巴西和印度取得了显著的收益。它强调自己的愿景是成为一个面向所有年龄段用户的平台，并展示了不同年龄段用户的惊人增长。此外，它还讨论了虚拟形象、语音和人工智能集成方面的创新，有助于提高参与度。成本管理和弗吉尼亚州Ashburn数据中心的建成将对运营成本和资本支出产生积极影响。最后，该公司宣布计划从2024年开始提供财务指导。虽然它没有提供23年第四季度的正式指导，但它对收入约为7.4亿至7.5亿美元的共识感到满意，同比增长率约为28%。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：36美元至42美元。中性前景。

Walt Disney Co (DIS)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $21.24B, +5.7% YoY, miss estimates by $170M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.82, beat estimates by $0.11
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect CapEx to total $6B, an increase of approximately $1B versus FY23, driven by higher spending at Experiences. Expect total content spend to be approximately $25B
  • Comment: Disney reported earnings that exceeded expectations in Q4, due to strong performance at ESPN+ and growth in its theme parks. However, a decrease in ad revenue, primarily from Disney’s ABC Network and other owned TV stations due to lower political advertising revenue, impacted the top line. Disney plans to increase its cost-cutting measures by an additional $2bn to reach a target of $7.5bn. The company’s core Disney+ subscribers increased by 7mn from the previous quarter, reaching a total of 150.2mn, including Hotstar. Disney emphasised its streaming business’s path to profitability and announced plans to focus on key opportunities, including streaming, digital sports with ESPN, film studios, and the parks and experiences business. Notably, the company reported a revenue miss for the second consecutive quarter, which was the first such miss since early 2018. The theme park division showed strong performance, with a 13% increase in revenues. Looking ahead, with more focus on experiences, online streaming and popular films in the works, we anticipate stronger performance from its entertainment and experiences segments. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $86 to $95. Positive Outlook. 

迪士尼 (DIS) 

  • 23财年第四季营收：212.4亿美元, 同比增幅5.7%，逊预期1.7亿美元
  • 23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：0.82美元，超预期0.11美元  
  • 24财年指引：预计资本支出总额将达到60亿美元，比23财年增加约10亿美元，主要受体验支出增加的推动。预计总内容支出约为250亿美元。
  • 短评：由于ESPN+的强劲表现和主题公园的增长，迪士尼第四季度的收益超出了预期。然而，由于政治广告收入下降，广告收入减少，主要来自迪士尼的ABC网络和其他拥有的电视台，影响了收入。迪士尼计划将其成本削减措施再增加20亿美元，以达到75亿美元的目标。该公司的核心迪士尼+用户比上一季度增加了700万，包括Hotstar在内的总用户数达到1.502亿。迪士尼强调了其流媒体业务的盈利之路，并宣布了专注于关键机遇的计划，包括流媒体、与ESPN合作的数字体育、电影制片厂以及公园和体验业务。值得注意的是，该公司连续第二个季度报告收入下降，这是自2018年初以来首次出现这种情况。主题公园部门表现强劲，收入增长13%。展望未来，随着对体验、在线流媒体和热门电影的更多关注，我们预计其娱乐和体验部分将有更强劲的表现。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：86美元至95美元。积极前景。

Twilio Inc (TWLO)

  • 3Q23 Revenue: $1.03B, +4.8% YoY, beat estimates by $40.54M
  • 3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.58, beat estimates by $0.22
  • 4Q23 Guidance: Revenue $1,030M – $1,040M; Non-GAAP income from operations $115M – $125M; Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share $0.53 – $0.57.
  • Comment: Twilio reported a strong Q3, exceeding revenue and non-GAAP profitability targets. 88% of its revenue came from its Communications business. Twilio’s efforts to streamline its cost structure and focus on efficiency are showing in its results. The company is also expanding its Communications business, building partnerships, and innovating with AI. In its Data and applications business, it has seen growth, particularly in its CustomerAI capabilities. While Twilio has encountered some headwinds from crypto customers, it continues to make progress in profitability. The company generated $195mn in free cash flow and is committed to further improving profitability. As the company continues to work towards delivering strong profitability, it will continue to develop its Data and Applications team to deliver a Customer AI that will differentiate Twilio from its competitors. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $59 to $68. Positive Outlook. 

Twilio Inc (TWLO) 

  • 23财年第三季营收：10.3亿美元, 同比增幅4.8%，超预期4,054万美元
  • 23财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：0.58美元，超预期0.22美元  
  • 23财年第四季指引：营收为10.30亿至10.4亿美元；Non-GAAP经营收入1.15亿至1.25亿美元；Non-GAAP摊薄每股收益0.53至0.57美元。
  • 短评：Twilio第三季度业绩强劲，超过了营收和Non-GAAP盈利目标。其88%的营收来自通讯业务。Twilio在精简成本结构和注重效率方面所做的努力在其业绩中有所体现。该公司还在扩大通信业务，建立合作伙伴关系，并利用人工智能进行创新。在其数据和应用业务方面，它看到了增长，特别是在其客户人工智能能力方面。虽然Twilio遇到了一些来自加密客户的阻力，但它在盈利能力方面继续取得进展。该公司创造了1.95亿美元的自由现金流，并致力于进一步提高盈利能力。随着公司继续努力实现强劲的盈利能力，它将继续发展其数据和应用团队，以提供客户人工智能，这将使Twilio有别于其竞争对手。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：58美元至68美元。积极前景。

Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY)

  • 3Q23 Revenue: $7.4B, -22.1% YoY, beat estimates by $440M
  • 3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.18, beat estimates by $0.32
  • 4Q23 Guidance: Guiding to 1.226 million BOE per day, the highest quarterly production for the year, despite hailstorms in Delaware Basin that caused power interruptions early in October. Property damage from these Permian storms and Gulf of Mexico maintenance are expected to result in the fourth quarter domestic operating cost of approximately $10.50 per BOE.
  • Comment: Occidental Petroleum reported third-quarter revenue and profit exceeding Wall Street expectations, driven by strong US oil production. However, these results marked a significant drop from the previous year due to lower energy prices and weaker chemical and pipeline performance. OXY also bought back $342mn in preferred shares from Berkshire Hathaway, continuing to redeem 15% of the initial $10bn investment made by Warren Buffett’s firm. While challenging market conditions persist, OXY’s average oil sale price in the third quarter showed improvement from the second quarter. Additionally, the company secured a $550mn investment from BlackRock for a proposed direct air capture carbon project in Texas, signifying an important milestone. OXY remains focused on innovation, carbon capture cost reduction, and adapting to market dynamics to position itself for the future. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $55 to $65. Neutral Outlook. 

西方石油 (OXY) 

  • 23财年第三季营收：74.0亿美元, 同比跌幅22.1%，超预期4.4亿美元
  • 23财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：1.18美元，超预期0.32美元  
  • 23财年第四季指引：指引至122.6万桶油当量/天，为今年最高季度产量，尽管特拉华盆地的冰雹导致10月初电力中断。二叠纪盆地风暴和墨西哥湾维护造成的财产损失预计将导致第四季度国内运营成本约为每桶油当量10.50美元。
  • 短评：受美国石油产量强劲的推动，西方石油公布第三季度收入和利润超出华尔街预期。然而，由于能源价格下跌以及化工和管道性能下降，这些结果与去年相比显着下降。西方石油还从伯克希尔哈撒韦公司回购了3.42亿美元的优先股，继续赎回沃伦·巴菲特公司最初100亿美元投资的15%。尽管充满挑战的市场环境依然存在，但西方石油第三季度的平均石油销售价格较第二季度有所改善。此外，该公司还从贝莱德获得了5.5亿美元的投资，用于拟议中的德克萨斯州直接空气捕集碳项目，这是一个重要的里程碑。远洋石油将继续专注于创新，降低碳捕获成本，并适应市场动态，为未来定位。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：55美元至65美元。中性前景。

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