Technical Analysis – 7 November 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN US)

• Shares closed at a high since July 2024 with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 240 Target 280, Stop 220

Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT US)

• Shares closed at a high since July 2024 with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
• MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 12.0 Target 14.0, Stop 11.0

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Singapore Technologies Engineering Ltd. (STE SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA. 5dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
• MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 4.60, Target 4.80, Stop 4.50

Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd. (JM SP)

• Shares closed at a high since March 2024, with more volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA and the 20dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 41.0Target 43.0, Stop 40.0

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United Co RUSAL International PJSC (486 HK)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5dEMA with a jump in volume.
• MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 3.68, Target 4.00, Stop 3.52

AviChina Industry & Technology Co Ltd (2357 HK)

• Shares closed at a three-week high above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume.
• RSI is constructive and MACD turned positive.
• Long – Entry 4.50, Target 4.84, Stop 4.33

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CVS Health Corp (CVS)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $95.43B, +6.3% YoY, beat estimates by $2.74B
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.09, miss estimates by $0.37
• 4Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
• Comment: CVS Health reported mixed third-quarter results, with increased sales offset by rising medical costs that impacted its profitability. The company anticipates these elevated medical costs will continue to pressure performance through the remainder of the year. Additionally, CVS plans to wait until it has more clarity on 2024 membership trends and medical cost baselines before issuing a full-year 2025 outlook. In recent strategic moves, CVS confirmed Joyner’s appointment as CEO, succeeding Karen Lynch. The company also completed a strategic review, leading to layoffs, write-downs, and the closure of 271 more retail stores. These actions complement CVS’s previously announced plan to cut $2 billion in expenses over the coming years, which includes reducing its workforce by nearly 3,000 jobs, or less than 1% of its total. The company has further bolstered its leadership team, naming Steve Nelson, former CEO of UnitedHealthcare, as the new president of Aetna, effective immediately. These leadership changes are aimed at restoring investor confidence and improving CVS’s ability to manage its higher-than-expected medical costs. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $58 to $66. Neutral Outlook.

西维斯健康 (CVS)

• 24财年第三季营收：954.3亿美元，同比增幅6.3%，超预期27.4亿美元
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.09美元，逊预期0.37美元
• 24财年指引：不提供指引。
• 短评：西维斯健康公布了喜忧参半的第三季度业绩，销售额的增长被医疗成本的上升所抵消，这影响了其盈利能力。该公司预计，医疗费用的上升将在今年剩余时间内继续对业绩构成压力。此外，西维斯计划等到更清楚地了解2024年的会员趋势和医疗成本基线后，再发布2025年全年展望。在最近的战略举措中，西维斯确认任命乔伊纳接替凯伦•林奇（Karen Lynch）担任首席执行官。该公司还完成了一项战略评估，导致裁员、资产减记，并关闭了271家零售店。CVS此前宣布，计划在未来几年削减20亿美元开支，其中包括裁员近3000人，占员工总数不到1%。该公司进一步加强了其领导团队，任命联合医疗（UnitedHealthcare）前首席执行官史蒂夫•纳尔逊（Steve Nelson）为安泰的新总裁，立即生效。领导层的变动旨在恢复投资者的信心，并提高西维斯管理其高于预期的医疗成本的能力。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：58至66美元。中性前景。

ARM Holdings PLC (ARM)

• 2Q25 Revenue: $844M, +4.7% YoY, beat estimates by $34.23M
• 2Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.30, beat estimates by $0.04
• 3Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue to be between $920mn to $970mn, with a midpoint of $945mn falling short of a consensus of $945mn; Expect EPS to be between $0.32 to $0.36, the midpoint in line with consensus.
• FY25 Guidance: Maintain its FY25 outlook; Expect sales to be between $3.8mn to $4.1mn.
• Comment: ARM Holdings delivered solid results, with its v9 technology accounting for 25% of revenue in the fiscal second quarter, driven in part by strong adoption in smartphones. Unlike previous versions, the company’s licensing model for v9 includes structured price increases, in some cases annually, which supports ARM’s long-term growth strategy. Management also noted that ARM has secured its first smartphone chip customer for its predesigned blueprints, a significant milestone. Looking ahead, the company expressed optimism about mobile growth, including contributions from Apple. However, ARM issued a cautious revenue forecast for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, suggesting that ongoing recovery in the smartphone market may dampen gains from artificial intelligence. Currently, ARM’s shares trade at around 70 times expected earnings, a premium compared to Nvidia’s valuation at approximately 33 times earnings. 3Q25 recommended trading range: $127 to $147. Neutral Outlook.

ARM控股 (ARM)

• 25财年第二季营收：8.44亿美元，同比增长4.7%，超预期3,423万美元
• 25财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.30美元，超预期0.04美元
• 25财年第三季指引：预计营收将在9.2亿美元至9.7亿美元之间，中间值9.45亿美元低于普遍预期的9.45亿美元；预计每股收益将在0.32美元至0.36美元之间，这一中间值与市场预期一致。
• 25财年指引：维持其25财年前景；预计销售额将在380万美元至410万美元之间。
• 短评：ARM控股公布了稳健的业绩，其v9技术占第二财季收入的25%，部分原因是智能手机的强劲采用。与之前的版本不同，该公司v9的授权模式包括结构化的价格上涨，在某些情况下每年一次，这支持了ARM的长期增长战略。管理层还指出，ARM已经为其预先设计的蓝图赢得了第一个智能手机芯片客户，这是一个重要的里程碑。展望未来，该公司对移动业务的增长表示乐观，包括来自苹果的贡献。然而，ARM对2025财年第三季度的收入预测持谨慎态度，这表明智能手机市场的持续复苏可能会抑制人工智能的收益。目前，ARM股价的预期市盈率约为70倍，高于英伟达约33倍的估值。25财年第三季度建议交易区间：127至147美元。中性前景。

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $10.24B, +18.1% YoY, beat estimates by $310M
• 4Q24 non-GAAP EPS: $2.69, beat estimates by $0.12
• Share buyback: Approved a $15B share buyback.
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue of $10.5B to $11.3B vs $10.61B consensus and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $2.85 to $3.05 vs $2.87 consensus.
• Comment: Qualcomm reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results that beat estimates, with US$10.24bn in revenue and EPS of US$2.69. It also issued an optimistic forecast for the next quarter, driven by increased demand from new Chinese flagship smartphones and a recovering global smartphone market. The company announced sales and adjusted profits for the current quarter would exceed Wall Street’s estimates, forecasting revenue at a midpoint of US$10.90bn and EPS of US$2.95, compared to analysts’ expectations of US$10.59bn and US$2.86. Additionally, Qualcomm approved a US$15bn stock buyback. The company attributed its recent success largely to Chinese smartphone brands like Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo, while a new licensing deal with Transsion Holdings further bolstered its presence in developing markets. However, Qualcomm faces some challenges: it anticipates revenue decline from Apple, which is developing its own modem chips despite an agreement to buy Qualcomm chips until at least 2026. Qualcomm is also diversifying into AI, laptops, and data centres to counterbalance potential revenue losses from Apple. Qualcomm is in an ongoing dispute with Arm, which has threatened to cancel a key license. The case goes to trial in December. Looking ahead, Qualcomm will continue to benefit from the demand for its smartphone chips as consumers look to upgrade to smartphones with artificial intelligence capabilities. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $170 to $200. Positive Outlook.

高通 (QCOM)

• 24财年第四季营收：102.4亿美元，同比增长18.1%，超预期3.1亿美元
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.69美元，超预期0.12美元
• 股票回购：批准150亿美元的股票回购计划。
• 25财年第一季指引：预计营收为105亿至113亿美元，预期为106.1亿美元；Non-GAAP稀释后每股收益为2.85至3.05美元，预期为2.87美元。
• 25财年指引：维持其25财年前景；预计销售额将在380万美元至410万美元之间。
• 短评：高通公布了强于预期的第四季度业绩，营收达到102.4亿美元，每股收益为2.69美元。受中国新款旗舰智能手机需求增加和全球智能手机市场复苏的推动，该公司还发布了对下一季度的乐观预测。该公司宣布，当前季度的销售额和调整后利润将超过华尔街的预期，预计收入为100.9亿美元，每股收益为2.95美元，而分析师的预期为105.9亿美元和2.86美元。此外，高通还批准了150亿美元的股票回购计划。该公司将其最近的成功主要归功于小米、Oppo和Vivo等中国智能手机品牌，而与传音控股（Transsion Holdings）达成的新授权协议进一步加强了其在发展中市场的影响力。然而，高通面临着一些挑战：它预计苹果的收入会下降，尽管苹果与高通签订了至少在2026年之前购买高通芯片的协议，但苹果正在开发自己的调制解调器芯片。高通还在向人工智能、笔记本电脑和数据中心多元化，以抵消来自苹果的潜在收入损失。高通与ARM的纠纷正在持续，后者威胁要取消一项关键许可。该案将于12月开庭审理。展望未来，随着消费者希望升级到具有人工智能功能的智能手机，高通将继续受益于对其智能手机芯片的需求。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：170至200美元。中性前景。