Technical Analysis – 6 December 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Adobe Inc (ADBE US)

• Shares closed above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 200dEMA.
  
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  
• Long – Entry 530 Target 570, Stop 510
  

Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD US)

• Shares closed above the 5dMEA with rising volume.
  
• RSI is constructive while MACD is about to turn positive.
  
• Long – Entry 358 Target 390 Stop 342
  

^ Back To Top

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings Ltd (YZJSGD SP)

• Shares closed above the 20dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 50dEMA and 20dEMA.
  
• RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
  
• Long – Entry 2.60, Target 2.76, Stop 2.52
  

ComfortDelGro Corp Ltd (CD SP)

• Shares closed above the 200wEMA. The 5wEMA crossed the 200wEMA.
  
• RSI is constructive while MACD is about to turn positive.
  
• Long – Entry 1.49 Target 1.59, Stop 1.44
  

^ Back To Top

Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co Ltd (1157 HK)

• Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
  
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  
• Long – Entry 5.3, Target 5.7, Stop 5.1
  

Kingdee International Software Group Co Ltd (268 HK)

• Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
  
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  
• Long – Entry 9.06, Target 9.72, Stop 8.73
  

^ Back To Top

Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $7.57B, +3.6% YoY, beat estimates by $130M
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.12, beat estimates by $0.04
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect net sales to be between $8.10B-$8.30B, midpoint below consensus of $8.24B and adjusted EPS of $2.10-$2.30, midpoint below consensus of $2.23.
  
• FY24 Guidance: Raised the low end of its net sales guidance, expecting a range of $30.70B to $30.90B, up slightly from $30.60B to $30.90B previously. Midpoint for revenue guidance at $30.8B, ahead of analysts’ expectations of $30.71B. Narrowed adjusted EPS to $5.31-$5.51 from prior $5.20-$5.60, midpoint in-line with consensus of $5.41.
  
• Share buyback: Dollar Tree still has approximately $952M remaining under its $2.5B share repurchase authorisation as of 2 November 2024.
  
• Comment: Dollar Tree reported strong third-quarter results, with net sales rising 3.5% to US$7.56bn, exceeding the US$7.44bn consensus. Same-store sales increased 1.8% across Dollar Tree and Family Dollar, driven by higher foot traffic and average spending as consumers turned to affordable options for essentials, apparel, and electronics. Adjusted earnings per share of US$1.12 beat estimates by US$0.05, while gross margins expanded by 120 basis points to 30.9%, aided by lower freight costs. However, discretionary spending declined, reflecting broader frugality trends among shoppers prioritizing essential purchases. The company raised its annual sales forecast to US$30.7bn–US$30.9bn, with the midpoint above analysts’ expectations. Dollar Tree continues its transformation, including closing 970 underperforming Family Dollar stores and exploring strategic options for the banner. Its multi-price strategy, now rolled out in 2,311 stores, has been a key growth driver, contributing to a 3.3% increase in same-store sales and accounting for 30% of Q3 net sales. Customers have embraced this new format, which offers products priced between US$1.50 and US$7, leading to increased store visits and larger basket sizes. Despite these positive developments, Dollar Tree faces challenges, including heightened competition from Walmart, Target, and e-commerce platform Temu. Leadership transitions add further uncertainty, with CFO Jeff Davis and CEO Rick Dreiling recently stepping down. Its interim CEO acknowledged a slower start to Q4, influenced by the election and a late Thanksgiving, but emphasized the company’s focus on enhancing the in-store experience and catering to “need-based” shopping. Dollar Tree’s ability to balance affordability with expanded product offerings will be critical to sustaining growth. The company sees its value-driven model as a competitive advantage in maintaining customer loyalty and unlocking long-term potential. However, potential challenges, including high tariffs under the incoming President Donald Trump, may pressure costs moving forward. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $70 to $80. Neutral Outlook.
  

美元树 (DLTR)

• 24财年第三季营收：75.7亿美元，同比增幅3.6%，超预期1.3亿美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.12美元，超预期0.04美元。
  
• 24财年第四季指引：预计净销售额将在81亿美元至83亿美元之间，中间值低于82.4亿美元的预期，调整后每股收益为2.10美元至2.30美元，中间值低于2.23美元的预期。
  
• 24财年指引：上调净销售指引的下限，预计为300.7亿美元至300.9亿美元，略高于此前的300.6亿美元至300.9亿美元。营收指引中值为308亿美元，高于分析师预期的307.1亿美元。调整后每股收益从之前的5.20至5.60美元收窄至5.31至5.51美元，中间值与5.41美元的共识一致。
  
• 股票回购：截至2024年11月2日，美元树的25亿美元股票回购授权仍剩余约9.52亿美元。
  
• 短评：美元树公布了强劲的第三季度业绩，净销售额增长3.5%，达到75.6亿美元，超过了市场预期的74.4亿美元。美元树和家庭美元的同店销售额增长了1.8%，这得益于客流量和平均支出的增加，因为消费者转向了负担得起的必需品、服装和电子产品。调整后每股收益1.12美元，比预期高出0.05美元，而毛利率增长120个基点，达到30.9%，这得益于运费成本的降低。然而，可自由支配的支出下降，反映出购物者优先购买必需品的普遍节俭趋势。该公司将其年度销售额预测上调至307亿至309亿美元，高于分析师的预期中值。Dollar Tree继续转型，包括关闭970家表现不佳的家庭美元门店，并探索该品牌的战略选择。该公司目前在2311家门店实施了多价格策略，这是其关键的增长动力，推动了同店销售额增长3.3%，占第三季度净销售额的30%。顾客已经接受了这种新形式，它提供的产品价格在1.50美元到7美元之间，导致商店访问量增加，购物篮容量增大。尽管有这些积极的发展，美元树也面临着挑战，包括来自沃尔玛、塔吉特和电商平台Temu的激烈竞争。最近，首席财务官杰夫•戴维斯和首席执行官里克•德雷林双双辞职，领导层的换届进一步增加了不确定性。该公司临时首席执行官承认，受大选和感恩节推迟的影响，第四季度开局较慢，但他强调，公司将重点放在提高店内体验和迎合“基于需求”的购物上。美元树平衡可负担性和扩大产品供应的能力将是维持增长的关键。该公司将其价值驱动模式视为保持客户忠诚度和释放长期潜力的竞争优势。然而，潜在的挑战，包括即将上任的唐纳德·特朗普总统的高关税，可能会给未来的成本带来压力。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：70至80美元。积极前景。
  

PVH Corp (PVH)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $2.25B, -4.7% YoY, beat estimates by $30M
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.03, beat estimates by $0.44
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect per-share earnings between $2.83 and $2.98 and adjusted per-share earnings between $3.05 and $3.20, vs consensus of $3.69 and $3.71, respectively.
  
• FY24 Guidance: Expect sales to fall between 6% and 7% from last year’s revenue of $9.22B, vs consensus of $8.62B. Cut its per-share earnings outlook to between $10.55 and $10.70 from between $11.20 and $11.45. It lowered the ceiling of its adjusted earnings guidance to $11.70 a share from $11.80 a share, while maintaining its lower end of $11.55 a share. Analysts were expecting per-share earnings of $11.57 and adjusted per-share earnings of $11.72. The company said that foreign-currency translation will hurt its bottom line by 15 cents a share, up from 5 cents previously.
  
• Dividend: Declared $0.0375/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
  
• Comment: For the third quarter, PVH Corp. reported better-than-expected results with adjusted earnings per share of US$3.03, beating the US$2.59 consensus, and revenue of US$2.26bn, ahead of the US$2.22bn consensus. However, revenue fell 5% YoY, driven by a flat performance in direct-to-consumer sales and an 8% drop in wholesale revenue. Tommy Hilfiger revenue dipped 1%, while Calvin Klein sales fell 3%, with a combined North American revenue decrease of 6%. PVH issued a disappointing forecast for the holiday quarter, expecting sales to decline 6% to 7%, worse than analysts’ prediction of a 4.5% drop. The company also provided a profit outlook below Wall Street expectations. The company maintained its full-year revenue outlook, forecasting a 6%–7% decline from last year’s US$9.22bn, aligning with analysts’ estimates of US$8.62bn. However, it revised its annual per-share earnings guidance downward to US$10.55–US$10.70, with adjusted earnings guidance now ranging from US$11.55 to US$11.70 per share, citing increased foreign-currency translation impacts. For Q4, PVH expects per-share earnings of US$2.83–US$2.98, with adjusted earnings of US$3.05–US$3.20, both falling short of analysts’ projections of US$3.69 and US$3.71. Despite these challenges, PVH’s CEO emphasized a robust inventory position heading into the holiday season. However, inflationary pressures, evolving consumer behaviour, and potential tariff impacts could weigh on costs and margins moving forward. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $95 to $115. Neutral Outlook.
  

PVH (PVH)

• 24财年第三季营收：225亿美元，同比跌幅4.7%，超预期3,000万美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.03美元，超预期0.44美元。
  
• 24财年第四季指引：预计每股收益在2.83美元至2.98美元之间，调整后每股收益在3.05美元至3.20美元之间，而市场预期分别为3.69美元和3.71美元。
  
• 24财年指引：预计今年的销售额将比去年的92.2亿美元下降6%至7%，而市场预期为86.2亿美元。将每股盈利预期从11.20至11.45美元下调至10.55至10.70美元。该公司将调整后收益预期上限从每股11.80美元下调至11.70美元，同时维持每股11.55美元的下限。分析师预期每股收益为11.57美元，调整后每股收益为11.72美元。该公司表示，外币换算将使其每股利润减少15美分，高于此前的5美分。
  
• 股息：宣布每股0.0375美元的季度股息，与之前一致。
  
• 短评：PVH公司公布的第三季度业绩好于预期，调整后每股收益为3.03美元，高于市场预期的2.59美元，收入为22.6亿美元，高于市场预期的22.2亿美元。然而，由于直接面向消费者的销售表现平平，批发收入下降了8%，收入同比下降了5%。Tommy Hilfiger的收入下降了1%，Calvin Klein的销售额下降了3%，北美地区的总收入下降了6%。PVH发布了令人失望的假日季预测，预计销售额将下降6%至7%，比分析师预测的4.5%的降幅还要严重。该公司还提供了低于华尔街预期的利润前景。该公司维持其全年收入预期，预计将比去年的92.2亿美元下降6%-7%，与分析师预期的86.2亿美元保持一致。然而，该公司将其年度每股收益预期下调至10.55美元至10.70美元，调整后的每股收益预期目前在11.55美元至11.70美元之间，原因是外币换算影响增加。PVH预计第四季度每股收益为2.83美元至2.98美元，调整后每股收益为3.05美元至3.20美元，均低于分析师预测的3.69美元和3.71美元。尽管面临这些挑战，PVH的首席执行官强调，在假日季节，库存状况良好。然而，通胀压力、不断变化的消费者行为以及潜在的关税影响可能会拖累未来的成本和利润率。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：95至115美元。中性前景。