KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 4 December 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Microsoft Corp (MSFT US) A screenshot of a graph Description automatically generated

  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA. The 20dEMA crossed the 50dEMA.
  • RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  • Long – Entry 430 Target 464, Stop 413
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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM US)

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  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
  • RSI is constructive and MACD turned positive.
  • Long – Entry 195 Target 211 Stop 187

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Seatrium Ltd (SMM SP)

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  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume.
  • RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  • Long – Entry 1.98, Target 2.10, Stop 1.92
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Sembcorp Industries Ltd (SCI SP)

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  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume. The 20dEMA crossed the 50dEMA.
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 5.35 Target 5.67, Stop 5.19

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Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd (1398 HK)

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  • Shares closed above the 20dEMA with rising volume.
  • RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
  • Long – Entry 4.65, Target 4.97, Stop 4.49
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Bank of China Ltd (3988 HK) A graph of stock market Description automatically generated

  • Shares closed above the 50dEMA. The 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  • RSI is constructive and MACD turned positive.
  • Long – Entry 3.66, Target 3.92, Stop 3.53

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Salesforce Inc (CRM)

  • 3Q25 Revenue: $9.44B, +8.3% YoY, beat estimates by $90M
  • 3Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.41, miss estimates by $0.04
  • 4Q25 Guidance: Expect sales of between $9.90B and $10.10B vs consensus of $10.05B and earnings per share of between $2.57 and $2.62, compared with analysts’ expectations of $2.65.
  • FY25 Guidance: Raised the low end of its revenue guidance, expecting a range of $37.8B to $38B, up slightly from $37.7B to $38B previously. Midpoint for revenue guidance at $37.9B, ahead of analysts’ expectations of $37.86B.
  • Comment: Salesforce exceeded Wall Street expectations for Q3 revenue, reporting an 8% YoY increase to US$9.44bn, surpassing the US$9.35bn forecast. This growth was fuelled by strong demand for its enterprise cloud portfolio, particularly its Data Cloud and the AI-driven Agentforce product, which the company views as a key driver of future growth. However, adjusted Q3 earnings per share of US$2.41 fell slightly short of the US$2.44 consensus estimate. To support the rising demand for Agentforce, Salesforce announced plans to hire 1,400 employees in Q4. The company also raised its FY25 revenue guidance slightly to US$37.8bn–US$38bn, compared to its previous range of US$37.7bn–US$38bn. For Q4, Salesforce projects revenue between US$9.90bn and US$10.10bn and earnings per share of US$2.57 to US$2.62, compared to consensus estimates of US$10.05bn and US$2.65 respectively. Demand for Salesforce’s software and data cloud solutions remains robust, as enterprises continue to invest in streamlining workflows and integrating AI technologies. Looking ahead, Salesforce is poised for steady growth in the near term, with the potential for accelerated growth as its Agentforce product matures and gains wider adoption. 4Q25 recommended trading range: $350 to $400. Positive Outlook.

赛富时 (CRM)

  • 25财年第三季营收：94.4亿美元，同比增幅8.3%，超预期9,000万美元
  • 25财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.41美元，逊预期0.04美元。
  • 25财年第四季指引：预计销售额在99亿美元至101亿美元之间，而市场预期为100.5亿美元；每股收益在2.57美元至2.62美元之间，而分析师预期为2.65美元。
  • 25财年指引：提高了收入指导的低端，预计收入范围为378亿美元至380亿美元，略高于此前的377亿美元至380亿美元。营收指引中值为379亿美元，高于分析师预期的378.6亿美元。
  • 短评：赛富时第三季度营收超过华尔街预期，同比增长8%，达到94.4亿美元，超过了93.5亿美元的预期。这一增长得益于对其企业云产品组合的强劲需求，特别是其数据云和人工智能驱动的Agentforce产品，该公司将其视为未来增长的关键驱动力。然而，调整后的第三季度每股收益为2.41美元，略低于普遍预期的2.44美元。为了支持对Agentforce不断增长的需求，赛富时宣布计划在第四季度招聘1400名员工。该公司还将其25财年收入指导略微上调至378亿美元至380亿美元，而此前的范围为377亿美元至380亿美元。赛富时预计第四季度营收在99.9亿美元至100.1亿美元之间，每股收益为2.57美元至2.62美元，而市场预期分别为100.5亿美元和2.65美元。随着企业继续投资于简化工作流程和集成人工智能技术，对赛富时软件和数据云解决方案的需求仍然强劲。展望未来，赛富时有望在短期内稳步增长，随着其Agentforce产品的成熟和更广泛的采用，它有加速增长的潜力。25财年第四季度建议交易区间：350至400美元。积极前景。

Okta Inc (OKTA)

  • 3Q25 Revenue: $665M, +13.9% YoY, beat estimates by $15.36M
  • 3Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.67, beat estimates by $0.09
  • 4Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue between $667M and $669M, topping the $651M average estimate and expects to report earnings of $0.73 to $0.74 per share.
  • FY25 Guidance: Boosted revenue guidance slightly to $2.595B to $2.597B, implying roughly 15% growth. Additionally, it aims to sustain a non-GAAP free cash flow margin of approximately 25%.
  • Comment: Okta delivered strong third-quarter results, with revenue rising 14% YoY to US$665mn, exceeding the US$649mn consensus estimate. Adjusted earnings per share were US$0.67, surpassing expectations of US$0.58, while net income improved significantly to US$17mn from a loss of US$81mn a year ago. Subscription revenue, a key growth driver, also rose 14% to US$651mn. For the fourth quarter, Okta projected revenue growth of 10% to 11%, reaching US$667 to US$669mn, above Wall Street estimates, and forecast current remaining performance obligations (cRPO) of US$2.13bn, up 9% YoY. Its CEO attributed the strong results to profitability, robust cash flow, and strategic investments in the public sector, partner ecosystems, and large enterprises. Free cash flow climbed to US$154mn, while total remaining performance obligations (RPO) grew 19% to US$3.659bn, signaling strong client commitments. However, customer growth was modest, with only 200 new additions during the quarter, reflecting cautious software spending amid macroeconomic uncertainty, potentially impacting future revenue growth. Okta’s identity management solutions, utilized by over 18,950 global clients, focus on deepening customer engagement through upselling and cross-selling. The company slightly raised its FY25 revenue guidance from US$2.595bn to US$2.597bn, representing 15% growth. Despite economic challenges, Okta remains focused on capturing larger accounts, targeting regulated sectors, and driving product innovation to sustain momentum. 4Q25 recommended trading range: $80 to $100. Neutral Outlook.

Okta (OKTA)

  • 25财年第三季营收：6.65亿美元，同比增幅13.9%，超预期1,536万美元
  • 25财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.67美元，超预期0.09美元。
  • 25财年第四季指引：预计营收在6.67亿美元至6.69亿美元之间，高于6.51亿美元的平均预期，预计每股收益为0.73美元至0.74美元。
  • 25财年指引：营收预期小幅上调至25.95亿美元至25.97亿美元，增长约15%。此外，它的目标是维持约25%的Non-GAAP自由现金流利润率。
  • 短评：Okta公布了强劲的第三季度业绩，收入同比增长14%，达到6.65亿美元，超过了市场普遍预期的6.49亿美元。调整后每股收益为0.67美元，超过预期的0.58美元，而净收入从去年同期的亏损8,100万美元大幅改善至1,700万美元。作为主要增长动力的订阅收入也增长了14%，达到6.51亿美元。Okta预计第四季度收入将增长10%至11%，达到6.67亿至6.69亿美元，高于华尔街的预期，预计当前剩余履约义务（cRPO）为21.3亿美元，同比增长9%。该公司首席执行官将强劲的业绩归功于盈利能力、强劲的现金流，以及对公共部门、合作伙伴生态系统和大型企业的战略投资。自由现金流攀升至1.54亿美元，而剩余履约义务总额（RPO）增长19%至36.59亿美元，表明客户承诺强劲。然而，客户增长温和，本季度仅新增200家，反映出在宏观经济不确定的情况下，谨慎的软件支出，可能影响未来的收入增长。Okta的身份管理解决方案被超过18,950个全球客户使用，专注于通过向上销售和交叉销售加深客户参与度。该公司将其25财年收入指导从25.95亿美元小幅上调至25.97亿美元，增长15%。尽管面临经济挑战，Okta仍然专注于获取更大的客户，瞄准受监管的行业，并推动产品创新以保持势头。25财年第四季度建议交易区间：80至100美元。中性前景。

Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL)

  • 3Q25 Revenue: $1.52B, +7.0% YoY, beat estimates by $60M
  • 3Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.43, beat estimates by $0.02
  • 4Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue of $1.80B, plus or minus 5%, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $1.65B and adjusted gross margin of 60% for the fourth quarter, compared with estimates of 61%.
  • FY26 Guidance: Expect its AI chip sales to hit $2.5B.
  • Comment: Marvell Technology reported strong Q3 results, driven by robust demand for its custom AI chips, it achieved revenue of US$1.52bn, surpassing estimates of US$1.46bn, and posted adjusted earnings per share of US$0.43, exceeding expectations of US$0.41. AI chip sales were a key driver of growth, with data centre revenue doubling YoY to US$1.10bn. The company projects its AI chip sales to reach US$2.5bn by FY26. The market for custom AI chips, estimated at US$10bn in 2023, could grow to US$45bn by 2028, largely benefiting custom chip businesses such as Marvell and Broadcom. However, Marvell faced challenges in other segments. Enterprise networking revenue fell 44% to US$150.9mn, and carrier infrastructure revenue dropped 73% to US$84.7mn due to inventory reductions. Additionally, the company expects a Q4 gross margin of 60%, slightly below estimates, as custom chips typically carry lower margins. For Q4, Marvell forecasted revenue of US$1.80bn, above the US$1.65bn analyst estimate. With its strategic focus on AI chips for hyperscale data centres, Marvell is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing AI chip market, even as it navigates challenges in other business areas. 4Q25 recommended trading range: $95 to $120. Positive Outlook.

迈威尔科技 (MRVL)

  • 25财年第三季营收：15.2亿美元，同比增幅7.0%，超预期6,000万美元
  • 25财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.43美元，超预期0.02美元。
  • 25财年第四季指引：预计第四季度营收为18.8亿美元，上下浮动5%，而分析师的平均预期为16.5亿美元；调整后毛利率为60%，而分析师的预期为61%。
  • 26财年指引：预计其人工智能芯片销售额将达到25亿美元。
  • 短评：迈威尔科技公布了强劲的第三季度业绩，受其定制人工智能芯片强劲需求的推动，该公司实现了15.2亿美元的收入，超过了14.6亿美元的预期，调整后每股收益为0.43美元，超过了0.41美元的预期。人工智能芯片销售是增长的关键驱动力，数据中心收入同比翻了一番，达到11亿美元。该公司预计其人工智能芯片销售额到26财年将达到25亿美元。定制人工智能芯片市场预计在2023年为100亿美元，到2028年可能增长到450亿美元，这在很大程度上有利于迈威尔和博通等定制芯片企业。然而，迈威尔在其他领域也面临挑战。由于库存减少，企业网络收入下降44%至1.509亿美元，运营商基础设施收入下降73%至8470万美元。此外，该公司预计第四季度毛利率为60%，略低于预期，因为定制芯片的利润率通常较低。迈威尔预计第四季度营收为18.8亿美元，高于分析师预期的16.5亿美元。迈威尔将战略重点放在超大规模数据中心的人工智能芯片上，在应对其他业务领域挑战的同时，迈威尔也处于有利地位，可以利用不断增长的人工智能芯片市场。25财年第四季度建议交易区间：95至120美元。积极前景。