Technical Analysis – 30 November 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Unity Software Inc (U US)

Shares closed above the 50dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
Long – Entry 30.5, Target 34.0, Stop 28.8

Pinterest Inc (PINS US)

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Shares closed at a high since Jan 2022, slightly below the 200wEMA with rising volume.
RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
Long – Entry 33.0, Target 36.0, Stop 31.5

Sembcorp Industries Ltd (SCI SP)

Shares closed above 5dEMA with rising volume.
Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
Long – Entry 5.12, Target 5.38, Stop 4.99

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp Ltd (OCBC SP)

Shares tested the 5dEMA and closed slightly below it with an increase in volume.
RSI is constructive, while MACD is negative.
Long – Entry 12.67, Target 13.15, Stop 12.43

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd (2899 HK)

Shares closed above the 50dEMA with an incline in volume. The 5dEMA touched the 50dEMA.
Both MACD and RSI are constructive.

Long – Entry 12.12, Target 12.88, Stop 11.74

Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd (1818 HK)

Shares closed above the 200dEMA with a jump in volume.
Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
Long – Entry 10.22, Target 11.00, Stop 9.83

Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)

3Q23 Revenue: $7.31B, +5.4% YoY, miss estimates by $110M
3Q23 GAAP EPS: $0.97, miss estimates by $0.04
4Q23 Guidance: Expect consolidated net sales will range from $8.6bn to $8.8bn vs. the consensus of $8.72B, based on a low-single-digit increase in same-store sales for the enterprise, a mid-single-digit increase for the Dollar Tree segment, and a decrease of 1.0% to an increase of 1.0% for the Family Dollar segment. Diluted EPS is estimated to be in the range of $2.58 to $2.78 vs. the consensus of $2.57. FY23 Guidance: Consolidated net sales are now expected to range from $30.5bn to $30.7bn vs. the consensus of $30.85B. The Company expects to deliver a mid-single-digit comparable store net sales increase for the year, comprised of a mid-single-digit increase in the Dollar Tree segment and a low-single-digit increase in the Family Dollar segment. Selling square footage is expected to grow by 3.0% to 3.5%. Diluted EPS is expected to range from $5.81 to $6.01 vs. the consensus of $5.96, including the $0.12 charge for the legal reserve taken in the first quarter and the impact of the 53rd week in fiscal 2023.

Comment: Dollar Tree has reduced its annual sales forecast and is reviewing its Family Dollar business after falling short of third-quarter estimates. The company cites softer demand from low-income households, with customers at Family Dollar stores particularly affected by higher food prices and borrowing costs. Family posted same-store sales of 2%, lower than 4.07% expectations, whereas Dollar Tree posted a 5.4% growth. Dollar Tree’s margins fell to 29.7% due to higher wages and raw material expenses as well as rising retail shrink. A comprehensive review of Family Dollar stores is underway, including the identification of potential closures. The company anticipates FY23 consolidated net sales of $30.5bn to $30.7bn and an annual profit forecast of $5.81 to $6.01 per share. Despite concerns about ongoing retail shrink trends, management expresses confidence in achieving an EPS outlook of $7 in FY24 and $10 for FY26. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $115 to $130. Neutral Outlook.

美元树 (DLTR)

23财年第三季营收：73.1亿美元, 同比增幅5.4%，超预期1.1亿美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.97美元，逊预期0.04美元
23财年第四季指引：预计综合净销售额将在86亿美元至88亿美元之间，而市场预期为87.2亿美元，这是基于企业同店销售额的低个位数增长，美元树部分的中个位数增长，家庭美元部分的下降1.0%至1.0%的增长。稀释后每股收益预计在2.58美元至2.78美元之间，而市场普遍预期为2.57美元。23财年指引: 目前预计综合净销售额在305亿美元至307亿美元之间，而市场预期为308.5亿美元。公司预计今年可比门店净销售额将实现中等个位数的增长，其中美元树部分将实现中等个位数的增长，家庭美元部分将实现低个位数的增长。销售面积预计将增长3.0%至3.5%。摊薄后每股收益预计在5.81美元至6.01美元之间，而市场预期为5.96美元，其中包括第一季度0.12美元的法定准备金费用以及2023财年第53周的影响。
短评：美元树下调了年度销售预期，并在第三季度业绩低于预期后，正在评估其家庭美元业务。该公司指出，低收入家庭的需求走软，家庭美元商店的顾客尤其受到食品价格上涨和借贷成本上升的影响。家庭美元商店的同店销售额为2%，低于4.07%的预期，而美元树的增长率为5.4%。由于工资和原材料费用上涨以及零售萎缩加剧，美元树的利润率降至29.7%。对家庭美元商店的全面审查正在进行中，包括确定可能关闭的商店。该公司预计，23财年合并净销售额为305亿美元至307亿美元，年度利润预期为每股5.81美元至6.01美元。尽管对持续的零售萎缩趋势感到担忧，但管理层表示有信心在24财年实现每股收益7美元，在26财年实现每股收益10美元。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：115美元至130美元。中性前景。

Bilibili Inc (BILI)

3Q23 Revenue: $795.7M, flat YoY, miss estimates by $1.51M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: –$0.29, miss estimates by $0.03
FY23 Guidance: Expect revenue to be at the lower end of RMB 22.5bn to RMB 23.5bn.
Comment: Bilibili missed revenue and earnings estimates in its third-quarter performance. However, it boasted a record-high daily active user (DAU) count of 103mn, an increase of 14% YoY. Monthly active users (MAUs) also hit an all-time high of 341mn. The DAU to MAU ratio improved to 13.2%, reflecting heightened user engagement. User daily time spent reached 100 minutes, with total user time spend growing 19% YoY. Bilibili witnessed a 38% YoY increase in gross profit, reaching a margin of 25%, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of gross margin improvement. Adjusted operating loss and adjusted net loss narrowed by 51% YoY. The company achieved positive operating cash flow in Q3, emphasising a positive business cycle. Bilibili focuses on content, community, and commercialisation, with emphasis on enhancing its core business amidst industry changes. The company has included streamlining measures to reduce its headcount to around 9,000 by the end of 2023. Commercialisation efforts drove advertising and value-added services (VAS) revenues to grow by 21% and 70% YoY, respectively. The game business experienced a 33% YoY decrease in revenues but showcased a strategic focus with streamlined in-house development. The company maintains a commitment to financial goals, anticipating a continued improvement in gross profit and loss reduction. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $11 to $14. Neutral Outlook.

哔哩哔哩 (BILI)

23财年第三季营收：7.957亿美元, 同比持平，逊预期151万美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.29美元，逊预期0.03美元
23财年指引：预计营收将在225亿至235亿元人民币的低端。
短评：公司第三季度的收入和收益低于预期。然而，它的日活跃用户(DAU)达到了创纪录的1.03亿，同比增长14%。月活跃用户(MAU)也创下了3.41亿的历史新高。DAU与MAU比值上升至13.2%，反映了用户粘性的提高。用户每天花费的时间达到100分钟，用户总花费时间同比增长19%。公司毛利润同比增长38%，毛利率达到25%，连续第五个季度毛利率提高。调整后经营亏损和调整后净亏损同比收窄51%。该公司在第三季度实现了正的经营现金流，强调了积极的商业周期。公司专注于内容、社区和商业化，在行业变革中重点提升核心业务。该公司已经采取了精简措施，到2023年底将员工人数减少到9,000人左右。商业化努力推动广告和增值服务收入分别同比增长21%和70%。游戏业务的营收同比下降了33%，但其战略重点是精简内部开发。公司保持对财务目标的承诺，期望毛利和亏损的持续改善。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：11美元至14美元。中性前景。

Salesforce Inc (CRM)

3Q24 Revenue: $8.72B, +11.2% YoY, in-line with estimates
3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.11, beat estimates by $0.05
4Q24 Guidance: Revenue Guidance of $9.18bn to $9.23bn, up 10% YoY. Q4 Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $2.25 – $2.26. FY24 Guidance: Narrows Revenue Guidance to $34.75bn to $34.8bn, up 11% YoY. Raises GAAP Operating Margin Guidance to 14.5% and non-GAAP Operating Margin Guidance to 30.5%. Raises Operating Cash Flow Growth Guidance to 30% to 33% YoY. FY23 EPS of $8.18 – $8.19.
Comment: Salesforce reported better-than-expected fiscal third-quarter earnings, due to strong demand for its cloud and business products. Salesforce has managed to boost profits by reducing expenses, cutting jobs, and restructuring. Its generative AI tool, Einstein Copilot, which launched in September has contributed to the company’s positive momentum. For fiscal 2024, the company raised its operating cash flow growth forecast to 33% and expects Q4 revenue between $9.18bn and $9.23bn. This sends a strong signal that the company’s growth plan is working and its profitability can be seen benefitting from the forecasted AI tailwinds. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $245 to $265. Positive Outlook.

赛富时 (CRM)

24财年第三季营收：87.2亿美元, 同比增幅11.2%，符合预期
24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.11美元，超预期0.05美元
24财年第四季指引：收入预期91.8亿美元至92.3亿美元，同比增长10%。第四季度Non-GAAP摊薄后每股收益为2.25至2.26美元。24财年指引：收窄至347.5亿美元至348亿美元，同比增长11%。将GAAP营业利润率指引上调至14.5%，Non-GAAP营业利润率指引上调至30.5%。将营业现金流增长预期上调至同比30%至33%。23财年每股收益8.18至8.19美元。
短评：由于市场对其云计算和商业产品的强劲需求，赛富时公布的第三财季收益好于预期。赛富时通过削减开支、裁员和重组来提高利润。该公司9月份推出的生成式人工智能工具Einstein Copilot为该公司的积极势头做出了贡献。对于2024财年，该公司将运营现金流增长预测上调至33%，预计第四季度收入将在91.8亿美元至92.3亿美元之间。这发出了一个强烈的信号，表明该公司的增长计划正在发挥作用，其盈利能力可以从预测的人工智能顺风中受益。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：245美元至265美元。积极前景。

Snowflake Inc. (SNOW)

3Q24 Revenue: $734.17M, +31.8% YoY, beats estimates by $20.63M
3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.25, beat estimates by $0.09
4Q24 Guidance: Product revenue between $716M and $721M, vs $700M. FY24 Guidance: Product revenue of $2.65B.
Comment: Snowflake exceeded expectations in Q3 with robust revenue and earnings. Product revenue surged 34% YoY to $698mn, and non-GAAP adjusted free cash flow grew by 7% to $111mn, showcasing strong growth in a stabilising macro environment. The introduction of Snowflake Cortex, a managed service for large language model inferencing, reflects Snowflake’s emphasis on generative AI. The company added 35 $1 million-plus customers during the quarter, and its Horizon solution addresses security and governance challenges in AI adoption. Snowflake’s strategic initiatives, including Snowpark Container Services, indicate promising growth and align with the trend of increased AI adoption in cloud-related software. The CEO also highlighted the significance of data strategy in preparing for transformative technologies like generative AI. Snowflake’s strong financials and focus on AI position it for continued success in the evolving tech landscape. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $185 to $200. Positive Outlook.

Snowflake (SNOW)

24财年第三季营收：7.3417亿美元, 同比增幅31.8%，超预期2,063万美元
24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.25美元，超预期0.09美元
24财年第四季指引：产品收入在7.16亿至7.21亿美元之间，市场预期为7亿美元。24财年指引：产品收入26.5亿美元。
短评：公司第三季度的收入和收益都超出了预期。产品收入同比增长34%至6.98亿美元，Non-GAAP调整后的自由现金流增长7%至1.11亿美元，显示出在稳定的宏观环境下的强劲增长。Snowflake Cortex是一种用于大型语言模型推理的托管服务，它的引入反映了雪花对生成式人工智能的重视。该公司在本季度增加了35个100万美元以上的客户，其Horizon解决方案解决了人工智能应用中的安全和治理挑战。Snowflake的战略举措，包括Snowpark容器服务，表明了有希望的增长，并与云相关软件中人工智能应用的增加趋势保持一致。这位首席执行官还强调了数据战略在为生成式人工智能等变革性技术做准备方面的重要性。雪花科技强劲的财务状况和对人工智能的专注使其在不断发展的科技领域取得了持续的成功。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：185美元至200美元。积极前景。