KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 29 February 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Tesla Inc. (TSLA US) A graph of stock market Description automatically generated

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 200, Target 220, Stop 190

Boeing Co. (BA US)

A graph of stock market Description automatically generated
  • Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA with a surge in volume.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is turning constructive.
  • Long – Entry 205, Target 221, Stop 197

Back To Top

Bumitama Agri Ltd. (BAL SP)

A graph of stock market Description automatically generated
  • Shares closed at a high since Apr 23 with constructive volume.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
  • Long – Entry 0.650, Target 0.690, Stop 0.630

Aztech Global Ltd. (AZTECH SP)

A graph of stock market Description automatically generated
  • Shares closed at a high since Nov 2023 with constructive volume. 20dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
  • Long – Entry 0.95, Target 1.01, Stop 0.92

Back To Top

China Resources Power Holdings Co Ltd (836 HK)

A graph of stock market Description automatically generated
  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA with constructive volume.
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 17.00, Target 17.88, Stop 16.56

Huaneng Power International Inc (902 HK) A graph of stock market Description automatically generated

  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume.
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 4.34, Target 4.56, Stop 4.23

Back To Top

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $1.99B, +30.9% YoY, beat estimates by $30M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: -$0.18, miss estimates by $0.04
  • FY24 Guidance: Net Yield is expected to increase approximately 5.5% as-reported and approximately 5.4% in constant currency versus 2023; Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be approximately $2.2bn; Adjusted net income is expected to be approximately $635mn, and adjusted EPS is expected to be approximately $1.23, an increase of 76% over 2023 results; Occupancy rate to be about 105%.
  • Comment: Despite a wider-than-anticipated loss in the fourth quarter of 2023, the company provided an optimistic outlook for 2024. It experienced robust demand for most cruises, except those in the Middle East, which were canceled due to violence in Gaza. Total revenue per passenger per day increased by 17% from pre-pandemic levels. The company’s booked position is currently at a record high, reflecting strong consumer demand. Since Black Friday in November last year, the company has witnessed some of its best booking weeks in history. Unexpectedly, the company anticipates posting a profit in the first quarter of 2024, signaling sustained strong demand. Consumer sentiments have also remained high, indicating potential strength in the demand for cruise trips as a vacation choice in the new year. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $18 to $23. Positive Outlook.

挪威邮轮(NCLH)

  • 23财年第四季营收：19.9亿美元，同比增长30.9%，超预期3,000万美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.18美元，逊预期0.04美元
  • 24财年指引：净收益率预计将增长约5.5%，与2023年相比，按固定汇率计算将增长约5.4%；调整后EBITDA预计约为22亿美元；调整后的净利润预计约为6.35亿美元，调整后的每股收益预计约为1.23美元，比2023年的业绩增长76%；入住率约为105%。
  • 短评：尽管2023年第四季度的亏损超出预期，但该公司对2024年的前景持乐观态度。除了由于加沙动乱而取消的中东航线外，大多数邮轮的需求都很强劲。每天每名乘客的总收入比大流行前增加了17%。该公司的预定头寸目前处于创纪录高位，反映出强劲的消费者需求。自去年11月的黑色星期五以来，该公司见证了其历史上最好的几周预订。出乎意料的是，该公司预计将在2024年第一季度实现盈利，这表明需求持续强劲。消费者信心也保持高涨，表明在新的一年里，邮轮旅行作为度假选择的需求潜在强劲。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：18美至22美元。积极前景。

Lowe’s Companies Inc. (LOW)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $18.6B, -17.0% YoY, beat estimates by $130M
  • 4Q23 GAAP EPS: $1.77, beat estimates by $0.10
  • FY24 Guidance: Total sales of $84mn to $85mn; Comparable sales expected to be down 2% to 3% as compared to prior year; operating income as a percentage of sales (operating margin) of 12.6% to 12.7%; Interest expense of approximately $1.4bn; Effective income tax rate of approximately 25%; Diluted EPS of approximately $12.00 to $12.30; Capital Expenditures of approximately $2bn.
  • Comment: Lowe’s companies reported strong results, yet experienced a sustained decline in do-it-yourself (DIY) spending. The provided guidance was less robust than anticipated, as the company expects ongoing pressure on DIY spending throughout 2024. Despite this, management expresses confidence in the long-term resilience of the home improvement market. Although consumer sentiments have improved in the new year, elevated mortgage rates may delay spending and renovations associated with new home sales. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $220 to $250. Neutral Outlook.

劳氏公司(LOW)

  • 23财年第四季营收：186亿美元，同比下跌17.0%，超预期1.3亿美元
  • 23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：1.77美元，超预期0.10美元
  • 24财年指引：总销售额为8,400万至8,500万美元；可比销售额预计同比下降2%至3%；营业收入占销售额的百分比（营业利润率）为12.6%至12.7%；利息支出约14亿美元；有效所得税率约为25%；稀释后每股收益约为12.00美元至12.30美元；资本支出约20亿美元。
  • 短评：劳氏公司报告了强劲的业绩，但自己动手(DIY)业务的支出却持续下降。提供的指导不如预期的强劲，因为该公司预计整个2024年DIY支出将面临持续的压力。尽管如此，管理层对家装市场的长期弹性表示了信心。尽管消费者信心在新的一年有所改善，但抵押贷款利率上升可能会推迟与新房销售相关的支出和装修。24财年第一季度建议交易区间220美至250美元。中性前景。

First Solar Inc. (FSLR)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $1.16B, +16.0% YoY, miss estimates by $160M
  • 4Q23 GAAP EPS: $3.25, beat estimates by $0.13
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect revenue of $4.4B-$4.6B and EPS of $13-$14, vs estimates of $4.56B of revenue and $13.26 EPS. Full-year sales volumes of 15.6-16.3 GW, gross margin of $2B-$2.1B, and operating income of $1.5B-$1.6, which includes anticipated Section 45X tax credits of $1.0B-$1.05B and $85M-$95M of production start-up expense; year-end net cash balance is projected at $900M-$1.2B.
  • Comment: First Solar reported a fourth-quarter profit of US$349mn. Despite missing revenue estimates, the company anticipates higher sales in 2024 due to strong demand for renewable energy, particularly in the United States. The company’s solar module supply in the US has been shielded from global oversupply, partly due to tariffs on imports from China. Despite industry challenges, its CEO remains optimistic about long-term demand. First Solar forecasts net sales of US$4.4bn to US$4.6bn for 2024, with annual sales volumes projected between 15.6GW and 16.3GW. The company also expects tax credits to range from US$1bn to US$1.05bn under the Inflation Reduction Act. With a net profit in Q4 and increased sales, First Solar is poised for growth, bolstered by strategic expansions and production milestones in 2023. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $150 to $180. Positive Outlook.

第一太阳能(FSLR)

  • 23财年第四季营收：11.6亿美元，同比增长16.0%，逊预期1.6亿美元
  • 23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：3.25 美元，超预期0.13美元
  • 24财年指引：预计营收44亿至46亿美元，每股收益13至14美元，预期营收45.6亿美元，每股收益13.26美元。全年销售额为15.6至16.3吉瓦，毛利率为20亿至21亿美元，营业收入为15亿至16亿美元，其其中包括预期的10亿至10.5亿美元的第45X条款税收抵免，年终现金净额预计为9亿至12亿美元。
  • 短评：第一太阳能公布第四季度利润为3.49亿美元。尽管收入低于预期，但由于对可再生能源的强劲需求，特别是在美国，该公司预计2024年的销售额将会增加。该公司在美国的太阳能组件供应没有受到全球供过于求的影响，部分原因是对从中国进口的产品征收关税。尽管行业面临挑战，但该公司首席执行官仍对长期需求持乐观态度。公司预计2024年净销售额为44亿至46亿美元，年销售额预计在15.6吉瓦至16. 3吉瓦之间。该公司还预计，根据《通货膨胀削减法案》，税收抵免将在10亿至10.5亿美元之间。凭借第四季度的净利润和销售额的增长，公司在2023年的战略扩张和生产里程碑的支持下，已准备好实现增长。24财年第一季度建议交易区间150美至180美元。积极前景。

Macy’s Inc. (M)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $8.12B, -1.7% YoY, beat estimates by $30M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.45, beat estimates by $0.46
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue of $4.7bn to $4.9bn vs consensus of $4.9bn. EPS of $0.10 to $0.16 vs estimates of $0.46. FY24 Guidance: Expects EPS of $2.45 to $2.85 vs expectations of $2.76. Net sales to be between $22.2bn to $22.9bn vs estimates of $22.95bn.
  • Comment: In Q4 Macy’s shoppers were attracted by steep discounts which resulted in a better-than-feared holiday quarter sales decline. However, Macy’s customers continue to face economic pressure, evident in its 26% drop in net credit card revenue to US$195mn. The company took a US$1bn charge in the fourth quarter due to restructuring costs, resulting in a loss per share of US$0.26. Macy’s announced a new turnaround plan after forecasting annual sales below market expectations due to weak demand for apparel and shoes. As part of the plan, Macy’s will close 150 stores by 2026 and monetize assets worth US$600mn to US$750mn over three years. This move follows previous store closures and job cuts. The retailer plans to open new Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury stores to boost growth for its luxury brands. Macy’s expects fiscal 2024 net sales between US$22.2bn and US$22.9bn, with adjusted earnings per share below analyst estimates. Despite improvements in US consumer sentiment and the implementation of cost-cutting measures, we expect Macy’s sales to continue declining in the current quarter due to reduced reliance on discounts to attract shoppers.1Q24 recommended trading range: $18 to $22. Neutral Outlook.

梅西百货(M)

  • 23财年第四季营收：81.2亿美元，同比下跌1.70%，超预期3,000万美元
  • 23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：2.45 美元，超预期0.46美元
  • 24财年第一季指引：预计营收为47亿至49亿美元，而市场预期为49亿美元。每股收益为0.10至0.16美元，市场预期为0.46美元。24财年指引：预期每股收益2.45至2.85美元，预期2.76美元。净销售额将在222亿至229亿美元之间，而市场预期为229.5亿美元。
  • 短评：第四季度梅西百货的购物者被大幅折扣所吸引，这导致假日季度的销售下滑好于预期。然而，梅西百货的客户继续面临经济压力，其信用卡净收入下降26%至1.95亿美元。由于重组成本，公司在第四季度计入了10亿美元的费用，导致每股亏损0.26美元。梅西百货宣布了一项新的扭亏为盈计划，此前该公司预计，由于服装和鞋类需求疲软，其年销售额将低于市场预期。作为该计划的一部分，梅西百货将在2026年前关闭150家门店，并在三年内将价值6亿至7.5亿美元的资产货币化。这一举措是在之前关闭门店和裁员之后进行的。这家零售商计划开设新的Bloomingdale’s和Bluemercury门店，以促进其奢侈品牌的增长。梅西百货预计2024财年净销售额在222亿至229亿美元之间，调整后每股收益低于分析师预期。尽管美国消费者信心有所改善，并且公司实施了削减成本的措施，但我们预计梅西百货的销售额将在当前季度继续下降，原因是对折扣吸引购物者的依赖减少了。24财年第一季度建议交易区间18美至22美元。中性前景。

Back To Top