4Q24 Revenue: $54.66M, +78.7% YoY, miss estimates by $1.11M
FY25 Guidance: Expect revenue to be between $250 million and $300 million. The company aims to achieve a positive run-rate adjusted EBITDA by 4Q25 and expects positive adjusted EBITDA in 2026.
Comment: Intuitive Machines reported 4Q24 revenue of US$54.6mn, a 79% YoY increase, driven by higher contract awards. It also delivered net income of US$149.2mn. Despite a wider operating loss of US$13.4mn, the company’s strong cash position of US$385mn as of March 2025 and record backlog US$328.3mn reflect financial stability. The company secured key contracts, including a US$4.82bn near-space network contract with NASA and a maximum order value of US$719mn contract with Omnibus Multidiscipline Engineering Services. However, setbacks in lunar missions and reliance on government contracts pose risks. Intuitive Machines remains well-positioned for long-term growth with its expanding lunar data services and contract backlog. The company forecasts 2025 revenue of US$250mn to US$300mn and expects positive adjusted EBITDA by 2026. However, execution risks in lunar landings and competition in the space sector could impact performance. We expect continued space contracts and expansion into data services to be key growth drivers. 1Q25recommended trading range: $8 to $12. Positive Outlook.
Comment: Oklo reported a wider annual loss and cautioned that substantial financial losses are expected in the near term. Management emphasized that Oklo remains an early-stage company with a history of financial losses and anticipates significant ongoing expenses. In a strategic development, the company recently initiated the process of applying for a combined license with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), which would enable it to build and operate its first Aurora powerhouse at Idaho National Laboratory. Oklo has already signed an agreement with the laboratory to facilitate site investigation activities, including drilling and soil sampling. Additionally, the company is engaged in a pre-application readiness assessment with the NRC, allowing regulators to review its licensing materials ahead of the formal application process. Looking ahead, while nuclear demand remains robust—particularly driven by the growing energy needs of AI—Oklo is still in the early stages of operations, and profitability remains a longer-term prospect. 1Q25recommended trading range: $23 to $35. Neutral Outlook.
