Technical Analysis – 26 July 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Northrop Gruman Corp. (NOC US)

• Shares closed at a high since May 24 with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA and is about to cross the 200dEMA.  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 466 Target 496, Stop 451

Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI US)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA and 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 15.60, Target 17.00, Stop 14.90

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GuocoLand Ltd. (GUOL SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 1.48, Target 1.56, Stop 1.44

Venture Corp Ltd. (VMS SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 14.90 Target 15.70, Stop 14.50

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CSOP Hang Seng Index Daily (-2x) Inverse Product (7500 HK)

• Shares closed above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume. The 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
• Long – Entry 5.58, Target 6.08, Stop 5.33

CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index Daily -2X Inverse Product (7552 HK)

• Shares closed above the 200dEMA.
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
• Long – Entry 6.68, Target 7.34, Stop 6.35

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American Airlines Group Inc (AAL)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $14.3B, +2.0% YoY, miss estimates by $70M
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.09, beat estimates by $0.04
• FY24 Guidance: Expect FY24 adjusted diluted EPS to be in the range of $0.70 to $1.30, compared to a consensus of $1.10 to $2.60; Remain on track to reduce total debt from peak levels by $15bn by year-end 2025.
• Comment: American Airlines reported mixed results, cutting its annual profit forecast due to a failed sales strategy and an industry-wide surplus of flights. The airline expects its unit revenue to drop by up to 4.5% in the third quarter, as high travel demand has not offset the excess capacity. The company is taking “swift and aggressive” measures to regain customers alienated by its recent changes in interactions with travel agencies and businesses. This includes renegotiating contracts and canceling plans to limit frequent flyer awards to bookings made on its website and select “preferred” agencies. Looking ahead, American Airlines intends to reduce capacity growth in the second half of 2024, responding to an oversupplied domestic market in the first half, to align capacity with demand and enhance profitability. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $9.0 to $12.0. Neutral Outlook.

美国航空 (AAL)

• 24财年第二季营收：143亿美元，同比增幅2.0%，逊预期7,000万美元
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.09美元，超预期0.04美元
• 24财年指引：预计24财年调整后的摊薄每股收益将在0.70美元至1.30美元之间，而市场预期为1.10美元至2.60美元；到2025年底前保持将债务总额从峰值水平减少150亿美元的目标。
• 短评：美国航空公布的业绩喜忧参半，由于销售策略失败和全行业航班过剩，该公司下调了年度利润预期。该航空公司预计其第三季度的单位收入将下降4.5%，因为高旅行需求并没有抵消过剩的运力。该公司正在采取“迅速而积极”的措施，以重新获得因最近与旅行社和企业互动方式的变化而疏远的客户。这包括重新谈判合同，取消将限制在其网站上经常旅客奖励预订和选定“首选”旅行社的计划。展望未来，美国航空公司打算在2024年下半年减少运力增长，以应对上半年供应过剩的国内市场，使运力与需求保持一致，并提高盈利能力。24年第三季度建议交易区间：9.0至12.0美元。中性前景。

RTX Corp (RTX)

• 2Q24 Adjusted Revenue: $19.8B, +7.5% YoY, beat estimates by $520M
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.99, beat estimates by $0.11
• FY24 Guidance: Expect adjusted sales of $78.75bn to $79.5bn, up from $78.0bn to $79.0bn previously; Adjusted EPS of $5.35 to $5.45, compared to $5.25 to $5.40 previously; Free cash flow of approximately $4.7bn, down from approximately $5.7bn.
• Comment: RTX reported strong results and raised its FY24 guidance. Despite allocating $1.24 billion to address a series of government investigations into its business practices, which impacted profitability in 2Q24, RTX’s earnings exceeded market expectations. The company remains optimistic for the rest of the year, supported by robust growth in the first half of 2024. The outlook for commercial aerospace is positive, with increased air travel following the downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. RTX is also poised to benefit from the summer travel surge, as U.S. passenger traffic reached record levels this year, with the TSA screening an average of about 2.46 million airline passengers per day in the first six months, a 6% increase from last year. Additionally, recent geopolitical tensions have led to increased military and defense spending, likely to benefit RTX. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $105 to $125. Positive Outlook.

雷神技术 (RTX)

• 24财年第二季调整后营收：198亿美元，同比增幅7.5%，超预期5.2亿美元
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.99美元，超预期0.11美元
• 24财年指引：预计调整后的销售额为787.5亿美元至795亿美元，高于此前的780亿美元至790亿美元；调整后每股收益为5.35美元至5.45美元，此前为5.25美元至5.40美元；自由现金流约为47亿美元，低于上年同期的约57亿美元。
• 短评：雷神技术公布了强劲的业绩，并上调了24财年的指引。尽管公司已拨出12.4亿美元用于解决政府对其商业行为的一系列调查，这影响了该公司第二季度的盈利能力，但该公司的盈利仍超出了市场预期。在2024年上半年强劲增长的支撑下，该公司对今年剩余时间保持乐观。商业航空航天的前景是积极的，在COVID-19大流行造成的经济衰退之后，航空旅行有所增加。公司也有望从夏季旅游热潮中受益，因为今年美国的客运量达到了创纪录的水平，今年前六个月，交通安全管理局平均每天检查约246万名航空公司乘客，比去年增加了6%。此外，最近的地缘政治紧张局势导致军事和国防开支增加，可能有利于公司。24年第三季度建议交易区间：105至125美元。积极前景。

Honeywell International Inc (HON)

• 2Q24 Revenue: $9.6B, +4.9% YoY, beat estimates by $180M
• 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.49, beat estimates by $0.07
• 3Q24 Guidance: Expect sales to be between $9.8B to $10.0B vs consensus of $9.83B and adjusted EPS of $2.45 to $2.55 vs consensus of $2.56.
• FY24 Guidance: Full-year sales are now expected to be $39.1B to $39.7B (prior $38.1B to $38.9B) vs. $38.77B consensus, with organic sales growth in the range of 5% to 6%. Segment margin is now expected to be in the range of 23.3% to 23.5% with segment margin contraction of 20 basis points to flat YoY. Adjusted earnings per share is now expected to be in the range of $10.05 to $10.25, up 6% to 8% YoY (prior $9.80 to $10.10) vs. $10.26 consensus. Operating cash flow is now expected to be in the range of $6.6B to $7.0B, with free cash flow of $5.5B to $5.9B.
• Comment: Honeywell International Inc. reported adjusted quarterly earnings per share of US$2.49, surpassing analyst expectations by US$0.07. The company’s aerospace unit, which supplies parts to Boeing and Airbus, saw a 5% sales increase, contributing to overall revenue growth of 5% to US$9.58B, also exceeding analyst forecasts. Strong performance in building automation and energy solutions drove a 4% increase in orders. While operating income rose 5% and margins expanded, Honeywell lowered its full-year profit outlook due to challenges in its industrial automation business. Weakening demand for warehouse and workflow solutions, coupled with inventory adjustments, led to declining sales in this segment. Additionally, the mask-making safety and productivity solutions unit experienced an 8% organic sales decline in the quarter. As a result, Honeywell adjusted its full-year earnings per share guidance downward to US$10.05 to US$10.25 from the previous range of US$10.15 to US$10.45. Given ongoing economic uncertainty, we anticipate continued weakness in Honeywell’s industrial automation and mask-making segments, partially offset by the aerospace unit’s performance. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $190 to $210. Negative Outlook.

霍尼韦尔国际公司 (HON)

• 24财年第二季营收：96.0亿美元，同比增幅4.9%，超预期1.8亿美元
• 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.49美元，超预期0.07美元
• 24财年第三季指引：预计销售额在98亿美元至100亿美元之间，而市场预期为98.3亿美元；调整后每股收益为2.45美元至2.55美元，而市场预期为2.56美元。
• 24财年指引：目前预计全年销售额为391亿至397亿美元（之前为381亿至389亿美元），市场预期为387.7亿美元，有机销售额增长在5%至6%之间。部门利润率目前预计在23.3%至23.5%之间，部门利润率同比收缩20个基点。调整后的每股收益目前预计在10.05美元至10.25美元之间，同比增长6%至8%（之前为9.80美元至10.10美元），而市场预期为10.26美元。运营现金流目前预计在66亿至70亿美元之间，自由现金流为55亿至59亿美元。
• 短评：霍尼韦尔国际公司公布调整后季度每股收益为2.49美元，比分析师预期高出0.07美元。该公司为波音和空客提供零部件的航空航天部门销售额增长了5%，为公司整体收入贡献了5%的增长，达到95.8亿美元，也超出了分析师的预期。建筑自动化和能源解决方案的强劲表现推动订单增长4%。虽然营业收入增长了5%，利润率也有所扩大，但由于工业自动化业务面临挑战，霍尼韦尔下调了全年利润预期。对仓库和工作流解决方案的需求减弱，加上库存调整，导致该细分市场的销售额下降。此外，面罩制造安全和生产力解决方案部门本季度的有机销售额下降了8%。因此，霍尼韦尔将全年每股收益预期从之前的10.15美元至10.45美元下调至10.05美元至10.25美元。鉴于持续的经济不确定性，我们预计霍尼韦尔的工业自动化和口罩制造业务将继续疲软，部分被航空航天部门的表现所抵消。24年第三季度建议交易区间：190至210美元。负面前景。